College Football look back Week 7 (And a look ahead to Week 8)

 My apologies for the radio silence last week, life got in the way.

After last week's game of the Century (of the week, again) we get ready for what ESPN is breathlessly calling "Possibly the BEST weekend in College Football HISTORY!!!!")

Meh.

I mean, Georgia v. Texas is probably going to be pretty good, and Alabama v. Tennessee is very promising, in the early window Indiana v. Nebraska has much potential but, after that, there are some good games but not many that I look at as right out bangers.

You do have to understand ESPN's position here however. They're trying their damndest to sell a still skeptical public on the joys of a 12 team playoff. Convincing us at every turn that the expansion of the playoff has not deemphasized the regular season.

Except that it has.

UGA lost to Alabama and yet their still right in it. Even IF they lose to Texas this weekend they're probably not right out of it because (rightly or wrongly) they'll still be viewed as one of the top teams in the Country because of the committee's SEC bias. A two-loss Georgia team is certainly still in the mix,

Who shouldn't be? Probably Alabama. Who, since beating Georgia, has looked bad. LSU who is definitely not great, and Ole Miss, who are overrated and continue to be despite their offense looking terrible over the past few weeks.

My thought was always that the SEC was overrated this year, and the non-conference results proved it. Outside of UGA destroying a not-too-good Clemson team, the SEC's OOC results were sub-par. I'm not saying the teams suck (they don't) but having them dominate the top 10 is a little ridiculous at this point. It's reputational rankings, not results-based rankings and I've a feeling this is exactly how the committee is going to view things when they finally have a say.

Perhaps the best story of the college football season are Army and Navy both sitting undefeated at 6-0. Both have good teams and are not there by means of a fluke. Army has been one of the most watchable teams of the season so-far and Navy looks strong. Notre Dame may want to rethink some of those "traditional rivalry" games that they used to feat on to pad their record.

As I said though, there's a LOT of watchable shit on TV this Saturday. There are some lines I believe are still vulnerable as well.

Utah (-4.5) over TCU - The Horned Frogs have NOT been good this year and, despite Cam Rising being out for the year (Sorry Cam, you deserved better) the Utes play strong defense and I cannot see TCU scoring any at all here.

Iowa (-5) over Michigan State - Michigan State is rebuilding, Iowa suddenly can play offense. I think the Hawkeyes win big here, but I also think that it's time for Kirk Ferentz to go.

South Florida (-13.5) over UAB - The hiring of Trent Dilfer might have been the worst head coaching hire of the off-season. The Blazers deserve better than this mess of a team.

Northern Illinois (-3) over Toledo - Yes, I realize that Northern Illinois has been inconsistent since beating Notre Dame and becoming the G5 Belle of the Ball, but Toledo has looked even worse since their 41-17 shellacking of a pretty putrid Mississippi State team. I liked this much better at -2.5 when I took it, but it still seems OK at -3.

South Carolina (+1.5) over OU - The Gamecocks being underdogs to OU is amazing to me here. I got this line at +3 which seems like a steal right now. The Sooners are reeling, they have almost all of their offensive production on the sideline, and the Gamecocks can play defense. I'm tempted to double down on the ML here to be perfectly honest.

Unlike two weeks ago, which I neglected to write about, I think there will be some upsets this week but it's not going to be the Top 15 blood bath that it was then. I think Michigan is very vulnerable to the Illini and I think Indiana might be in for tougher than they think against Nebraska.  That said, unlike in previous weeks there seem to be competitive games that could warrant watching in every window. It should be a fun game of College Football.

PSA: We're getting very close to the CFB Playoff Committee issuing their first rankings of the season. As a reminder, these rankings are crap, they do nothing but serve to fuel TV talk fodder and are about as useless as PAC-12 officials. Ignore them, and focus on the season, not the fake rankings designed to give First Take some content.

Enjoy the weekend and good luck however you decide to play these games.

College Football Look-Back Week 5 (And a look-ahead to week 6)

Do you remember, way back (OK, around 5-6 weeks ago) at the beginning of the season when I said that all of these early season Top 25 polls are pretty much useless?

Today we give you the 3rd Number 1 team in all the land in three weeks.  Welcome to the Party Alabama. Long may you reign (until the next game of the season, of the month, of the week that is). That said, at this point, I would argue that Alabama does have the best win of the season to date and has been adjusted to number one in my power rankings, but that doesn't mean that any of that matters at this point. What IS going to matter are the CFP Committee rankings, and even then those are worthless until the last poll, which, really, is the only one that matters.

That doesn't mean that the polls are not good for something.

That something being sports talk show fodder and milestones for teams like UNLV which has found itself ranked for the first time in school history. Regardless of my feelings on in-season polling, that's somewhat of a big deal for them. Congratulations Rebels.

I had also stated earlier that I thought Missouri and Ole Miss were two of the most overrated teams in the Country.  I was proven correct on Ole Miss, Missouri is likely to continue to be overrated and will win this week against equally (albeit lower in the rankings) UCF which will drive them even higher.

I'm starting to buy-in to Tennessee, begrudgingly, they still haven't played a top team, but I'm not a believer in Michigan, as that USC win is looking more and more like "meh".

Another area where I think people are getting it wrong is in the Heisman race. To my mind, there are only three players who really should deserve serious discussion right now.  Boise State's Jeanty, Colorado's Hunter & Alabama's Milroe.  I get that the flavor of the year has been Cam Ward so far, but he's not even the best player on his own team, that honor probably goes to Reuben Bain.

We're not going to go a long way towards unwinding this mess this week either. The most telling game might be Mizzou at aTm, Kyle Field is a rough place to play but the Aggies are unranked and have issues trying to rebuild from the Jimbo Fisher error. BYU will get a huge test at home versus Arizona. The Wildcats can be dangerous, although inconsistent on offense with QB Fifita but they have been inconsistent this year on both sides of the ball. Ohio State seems to have a speed advantage over Iowa but the Hawkeyes have actually been.....decent? on offense this year.  I kind of lean over in that one.

From a betting angle I'm really liking UNLv (-6.5) over Syracuse. What the Rebels looked like last week against a solid Fresno State team was impressive.

I'm also a fan of some undogs this week. Some to cover, some to win outright.

Michigan State +24 vs. Oregon. Look, they held in there for a bit at Ohio State and Oregon is NO Ohio State.

Missouri (ML) @ aTm. I've said above, Kyle Field is a tough place to play. I think Mizzou is that much better than Aggie.

North Carolina (ML) @ Pitt  The Tarheels have been one of the most snake-bitten teams in college football this season, and it feels like this on is the one that Mack Brown should hang it up. That said, my numbers have a pretty good lean toward North Carolina and I just feel like the old guy has one more upset left in him.

Army (-11.5) vs. Tulsa. This one is pretty simple. My numbers have Army by 17 here. Army is good, Tulsa is not. Sometimes you just have to trust your numbers and don't overthink it.

West Virginia vs Oklahoma State (u65.5). Neither offense has been even all that good this season and my numbers have this at around 56.5. I just can't see an offensive explosion here.

Florida (ML) vs. UCF.  The Gator faithful are just about to run Billy Napier out of town. UCF came into the season with a lot of buzz but the "quality" wins they have had (Houston, TCU) are feeling less and less quality as the weeks drag on. The Knights loss to Colorado was ugly as they got boat-raced out of the Bounce House (and even let Colorado run the ball successfully, which is almost unpossible if you're a good defensive team. I think Florida's young QB looks better This line opened at -1.5 Gators at home, which I thought was about right. when it switched to UCF -2.5 I jumped on Gators ML.

And finally....

Michigan (ML) vs. Washington. I know, I know, I know. I have a rule against betting on teams I root for.  This one is a pure analytics play. I have Michigan as being much better than Washington. That Michigan is an underdog makes zero sense based on what I'm seeing.  The Wolverines with Orji in at QB have been much better than when he's on the bench.  I had to take a little shot. Since I have broken my unwritten rule though you should probably fade this bet since I'm almost guaranteeing they are going to lose.

The Country the Missus has chosen for our College Football Cooking Spectacular is Germany.  I'm planning on Beer Broiled Brats, a Gluten free Schnitzel and all the gluten free beer and Schnapps she can drink.

Have fund this weekend.  Two, pretty good, small school games tonight and a full 5 games on  Friday.

Thursday:

Texas State @ Troy - 6:00PM CDT (ESPNU)

Sam Houston @ UTEP - 8:00PM CDT (CBS Sports Network)

Friday:

Jacksonville State @ Kennesaw State - 6:00PM CDT (CBS Sports Network)

New Hampshire @ Harvard - 6:00PM CDT (ESPN+ ONLY)

Houston @ TCU - 6:30PM CDT (ESPN)

Michigan State @ Oregon*** 8:00PM CDT (Fox)

Syracuse @ UNLV*** - 8:00PM CDT (FS1)

*** I have action on these games.

News Round-up(10/2/2024)

 Wars and rumors of wars.......

Saying the quiet part out loud. - It's never been about stopping climate change. It's always been about a redistribution of income from wealthy nations to NGOs and other quasi-governmental firms who will then tell the poor what to do.

That's quite the increase. When you  have elected leaders who truly believe that property ownership is theft from the government then you get results such as these.  If you don't already have a plan for an exit strategy out of Harris County you should start planning one.

As a matter of fact, a Texas exit strategy might not be a bad idea. The problem, and their are many, with Texas Democrats right now is that they have been out of power for so long that they are angry, and are going to overreach and are going to make life miserable.  The best thing for Texas right now would be some balance. I do not think we're going to get that, and I think the reversal is going to be stunning. Mostly because of a lack of adults in any room in government.

The biggest news story people are not paying enough attention to. This could be a big deal. In large part because the head of the union appears to be a low-functioning idiot who cannot even remember his 3 main talking points without having people remind him of what they are. I don't begrudge them their pay requests, but fighting against technological upgrades is akin to an old man hollering at the clouds. For this to get resolved the union is going to have to appoint a leader who can speak into a microphone without spitting on the first three rows.

Did you watch the VP debate last night? I did not. Nor did I watch either of the two Presidential debates. Kamala is a tool, Trump is a narcissist. No matter who wins, America loses.

BadScience People can say whatever they want to say when there are no repercussions. 

Will the last business to leave California please turn off the lights? The problem with government by boogeyman is that you, eventually, will run out of boogeymen to blame all of your problems on.  Eventually the people will look to you as the culprit.  Of course, by then they're probably too poor and there are no jobs left to matter anyway.

I really hope that this is the last we hear of Anna Delvey

RIP Dikembe Mutombo One of the great Basketall big men and ambassador's of all time.  And one helluva commercial star.

RIP Pete Rose. One of the most controversial baseball figures of all time. Both one of the greatest hitters and, apparently, one of the worst betters to ever grace the game.  In an age where games are sponsored by FanDuel and DraftKings it's time to relent and put the man in the Hall of Fame. at this point the hypocrisy is through the roof.

And finally...

One of the reason's we continue argue about climate change is that the arguments of the climate warriors are based on lies and logical fallacies. No one involved in carbon capture is suggesting that it is a silver bullet that will 100% solve the problem, yet that is what the climate warriors are attesting. 

In fact, the world HAS made some progress on carbon reduction and, China, India and some other nations notwithstanding, the Western World has taken steps to reduce their carbon omissions. But the climate warriors want stupid goals like "zero carbon now" and "just stop oil" which would plunge the world into economic chaos, kill Billions, and knock us directly back to the dark ages. Perhaps they do want a return to the days with the Catholic Church was the font of all knowledge and truth?  Of course, this time around it would not be the Church, it would be the United Nations.

Think about how scary that thought is.

College Football Week 4 (And a look ahead to Week 5)

Over the last week College Football was less defined by what happened on the field, outside of Michigan's upset of USC it was a fairly benign week, than it was what happened OFF the field.

Realignment: News that 4 schools would be defecting from the Mountain West Conference to head for the PAC was a head-scratcher to some. For one, there's little evidence to suggest that membership in a shrunken, G6 version of the PAC will be any more than even with the MWC. For another, what we're left with now are smaller conferences battling to get to 8. Both the PAC and the MWC now are in desperate need of teams. Both are looking at Texas State, among others. I don't see 8 team conferences being viable for the small schools.  But egos get in the way which is preventing a merger and expansion.  a 16-team Mountain Pacific Conference seems much more viable long-term to me than do two 8-team conferences hoping for table scraps.

NIL: The first issues with the current NIL system reared their ugly heads when UNLV QB Paul Sluka became the first athlete to shut it down for the season, declare his intent to red-shirt and transfer due to not making the type of money he states he was promised. Of course, there are two sides to this story with Sluka claiming he was promised $100,000 while only receiving $3,000 while the University states that after wins over Illinois and Kansas Sluka came to the coaches and demanded more cash.  Since all of this was supposedly a "verbal agreement" it's nothing more than a he said/he said issue now and we'll probably never know the truth. Also, there is a USC Defensive End that's decided to redshirt and transfer as well as the 4th string RB for UNLV. Both of those appear to be related to playing time rather than money however.  Still, until a workable framework is decided upon we might start viewing Week 4 as "shut it down" week as players are only allowed to play in 4 games before losing their opportunity to redshirt.

It's a mess and I'm not sure the NCAA can fix it. My feeling is still that the P4 programs, or the BIG and the SEC are ultimately going to form their own league that closely resembles NFL Lite. This will effectively destroy college football as we know it, but I also predict it will be immensely profitable, and popular.

Looking ahead to week 5 the biggest story might be Hurricane Helene. She's currently barreling toward Florida and could impact the Southeast and Midwest greatly. For everyone in their path, hunker down and good luck.

As for the betting, I've got some plays that I really like but none of those lines are still available, and I don't like where they sit currently so I'm just going to say good luck wherever you are sitting.

College Football Week 3 (And a look-ahead to Week 4)

Well, well, well.

Coach Sark and the Longhorns are the new number one team in all the land while Georgia, who struggled mightily against a live Kentucky underdog, slips to number 2. Tennessee is being overhyped as a strong contender despite not playing much of anyone and Florida State is still struggling and desperately looking for their first win.

Meanwhile, UNLV continues it's improbable winning streak now boasting a win over 2 Big XII teams, with a beatable Syracuse of the ACC still on the horizon and Colorado actually looked competent against the Rams of Colorado State.

On the betting front, I had something happen last week that has not happened in a while. I went 5-0 for the week raising my season bet tally to 12-3. Of course this happens when I abandon the weekly five. Whatever, I'm winning and I'm up 10.4 units so I'm happy.

About the Longhorns. I've said before that top 25 rankings at this point in the season are brunch for the debate shows. That's it, that's all they are.  Sure, some schools can make them into some milestones (for example, UNLV being ranked 25 in the Coaches Poll is the first time the school has been ranked in it's history) but for the most part they're just to allow the screaming heads an opportunity to scream at each other. Is Texas the number 1 team in all the land? Well, we probably still don't know. They have looked the most impressive on a week to week  basis so far, but outside of Michigan (who I still don't think is any good this year) they haven't exactly played a murderer's row of opponents.  Let's let some more games play out before we say that "Texas is back baby". They might be, but we've seen this happen early in the season before only to realize that they're not. I still am keeping the Bulldogs number 1 in my power rankings but Texas is gaining ground.

Looking ahead. If you're going to be partially distracted on Saturday this week seems to be a prime time to do so. There are not any games that I look at which make my teeth sweat with anticipation. That being said sometimes weeks that don't look too strong on paper tend to provide some of the better games of the season. In the early window I think Houston @ Cincinnati has potential, as does Kansas @ West Virginia. The 2nd window feels a little sparse but Utah @ Oklahoma State has some serious potential as a defensive gem and TCU @ SMU could be a rivalry sizzler (see what I did there?)

From a betting perspective I have another five teams that my numbers REALLY like. 

Kansas (+111) to pull the mild ML upset over West Virginia.

Central Michigan (-6.5) to win big over Ball State.

California (+106) to win over poor Florida State

Utah @ Oklahoma State (u51.5) to be a defensive battle (even IF Cam Rising plays)

NC State (+20.5) @ Clemson to keep it close against a Clemson offense that is not good.

As the usual caveat, I took most of these bets on either Sunday or Monday when the lines opened, so you might not be able to get the numbers above if you tried.  But I'm happy with what I have.

Finally, for those of you who don't know, probably because you're not following me on X, Mrs. TPM and I are doing the Great College Football Country Cooking Challenge this year.  The rules are simple: Mrs. TPM picks a country off of the big-assed map that we have on our living room wall.  My job is to create a (gluten-free, because Mrs. TPM is Celiac) menu based on dishes from that country, or inspired by their cuisine. So far, we've done the following:

1. Italy - Italian sausage/pesto flatbreads, charcuterie plate and pasta with marinara sauce.

2. Texas (because it's a country y'all) - Jalapeno poppers, smoked Spare Ribs and BBQ sides.

3. Mexico - Queso Blanco and Chorizo tacos with Mexican rice and beans.

This week she's chosen Cuba.

My menu is going to be gluten-free Cuban sandwiches and Ropa Viejas with rice for dinner. My struggle is, obviously, the Cuban sandwiches because there's really no gluten-free Cuban roll.  So I'm going to have to figure that one out.

Good luck to you this weekend no matter who you root for.

Quick Thoughts (Wednesday, September 18th)

Items that I found interesting, not worthy of a full blog post, but needing more comment then a quick quip on a news round-up.

1. Texas Media is dead. All they're doing now is whistling past the grave yard.

The myth of the media has been well crafted over the years but has never really been what they've puffed themselves up to be. The media has NEVER been honest, objective reporters of the truth as they have romanticized themselves to be. Instead, they've always had an agenda and they've pushed that agenda relentlessly. This is NOT about "Liberal bias". Instead it's about a POV that every media outlet prescribes to and promotes, both progressive and MAGA. American journalism has a long history of making up facts to meet the narrative. From the trumped up "mafia crime wave" back in the 50's to global cooling to the AIDS crisis (Not that AIDS wasn't a crisis for those who had it, but unless you engaged in some specific activities you were relatively safe See Also: MPox or MonkeyPox.) The difference now is that certain media outlets just come out and admit that they have a POV and are actively working to skew their reporting toward it. The Houston Chronicle famously did this with their infamous "pro-rail memo" back in the aughts, while Texas Tribune has been an advocacy group since their inception.  Now Houston Landing has come out and just admitted that they are going to ramp up their advocacy for things they like, rather than just reporting the news as-is.  Sad times indeed.  But it's time to stop buying the "unbiased, crusading media line and view them for what they are: advocacy groups with an agenda to push.  Then, when you consume their product, view it through the proper lens.

2. Harris County is devolving into a festering pit.

From tax increases to increased crime to declining quality of life to sketchy neighborhood safety things are getting pretty shoddy in the Bayou City and surrounding areas. Corruption at all levels of government run rampant, will the last person to be indicted for fraud or corruption please turn out the lights once you leave the office? Now, in an effort to shunt more money to their preferred patrons, local politicians are moving to raise taxes on residents until their eyes bleed.  This money will NOT go to help the public, it will predominantly be redirected to their friends who either donated to their campaigns or to whom they owe various other political favors. The media (see above) will not report on this because, in addition to being pretty much worthless these days, they are also the largest collective of courtiers that you will ever find. What they want, more than doing their jobs, is retaining access to those in power. It all leads to reporting that overlooks the obvious that you see every day. It's going to get way worse before it gets better.

3. Ragweed begone!

I'm not sure about you, but my allergies are severe right now.  Like many, I'm allergic to ragweed and it's really bad in Houston right now.  While we have to thank Mother Nature for Saharan Dust, which has really reduced our tropical activity this year, we can curse her a little for the heat domes that seem to be settling in on us. The old saying was "Houston, it's worth it."  Sadly, increasingly, it's not.

4. Dancing with the Crooks.

It's been around 5-6 years since I last watched an episode of the increasingly inaccurately named television series Dancing with the Stars.  Given the presence of Anna Delvay (the Fake heiress who scammed several people out of Millions of Dollars and who is now on some weird form of "house" arrest after overstaying her Visa) on the show I think it's time that people tune out and let the show out of its misery.  This feels oh so much like a desperate last-gasp of a show that's been running on an Iron Lung for years now. Related: has there ever been a company that's fallen so far, so fast as Disney? From the creators of beloved children's animated movies to the purveyors of some of the worst received content out there, clearly a course correction is desperately needed.  They ruined Marvel, they've all but gutted Star Wars, and pretty much every thing they touch now is doomed to failure.

5. Our long, National nightmare is almost over.

In case you missed it, I'm referring to election season. If, like me, you're tired of having your football games interrupted by Harris/Trump or (more often in Texas) Allred/Cruz ads just keep the faith that the end is nigh. They're awful, there are too many of them, and none of them say anything that is likely to change the minds of one voter. If, at this point in the election cycle, someone presents themselves to your or the media as 'an undecided voter' what they're really saying is either "I'm an idiot" or "I'm in desperate need of attention." Just make it stop already.