College Football Week 2 (And a look-ahead to Week 3)

Michigan is in big, big trouble. Texas is most assuredly not. Notre Dame did Notre Dame things, and Georgia still looks like the top team in the Country.

As a matter of fact, ALL of the top teams in the Country owe the Irish one. Already I've heard that Coach Sark and a host of other coaches are holding up the Irish loss, at home, to Northern Illinois, as an example of what could happen to them if they slack off, or take an opponent for granted.

Of the Top 10, the SEC holds six spots, the B1G holds 3 and the ACC holds down one spot. Nothing for the Big XII. 

Given the results of SOME of the inter-conference games, the SEC is probably overrated at this point, but they now have the full power of the ESPN College Football hype-machine behind them so I imagine they stay that way all year long.

I feel some more upset potential this weekend. I like Pitt to pull an upset over West Virginia in the Backyard Brawl, UNLV to take the measure of Kansas. I also like Washington State over Washington, but not enough to pull the ML trigger. I'll take +4.5 and be happy with it.

Arizona State was a -2.5 favorite over Texas State/ I liked that line and took it.  The line has moved to PK and AZ State is -110.  However, you can get them on the ML for better odds than that. I've watched AZ State play in both week 1 & 2. I really like the odds for them so I doubled up.  Last play is Cincinnati at -2.5.  You cannot get that line any longer, it's jumped to -3.5. I do not like the line as it currently stands.

As a quick aside: NFL markets are tough. Last week the both the favorites covering and the O/U came in at 9-7. The NFL is a terribly efficient market and harder than heck to bet into with much of an edge. There's a reason I limit my play to College Football.  Even then it's getting tougher and tougher to find games. Doubly tough when betting into the Top 25.  But there are nuggets to be found. It just takes some deeper diving.

At this point I still think Boise State is the odds-on favorite to finish at the top of the heap for the G5 automatic playoff spot. Yes, UNI has the best win at this point but the Mountain West is a MUCH better conference than the MAC and I still think Boise is the favorite to win that. That said, right now UNI is a deserving top seed.

Week 3 actually promises to be fun. The Apple Cup is being played, as is the Backyard Brawl and the Bayou Bucket. Some fun, regional rivals have fit themselves into the schedule. It's nice to see these schools try and keep the rivalries going. They make College Football better and seem to be the one thing we're in danger of losing with the realignment mess the way it is.

Good luck this week.

News Round-up (09/04/2024)

 The "Football is BACK" edition.......

Do you even BET bro? Some in the media want to paint legalized sports betting as the scourge of the modern age.  The data doesn't reflect that reality (although it does show that there are some groups that probably need to be targeted for help and some better regulation is needed) but that doesn't seem to be stopping them.

Get well soon Mack.

What's bad for the Oil and Gas industry, is awful for Houston. Unfortunately it doesn't seem that the business reporter for Houston's Regional newspaper understands that. 

Of course, it COULD be that he wants to see Houston fall into disrepair.

Harris County Government has become quite the mess. Amazing how far it's fallen in just a few short years.

Maybe they need to raise taxes to pay for their legal bills? In reality, Ellis and Hidalgo (and to a lesser extent Garcia, although he's on the outs now) have been pushing for large tax increases for a while. Hurricane Beryl just gave them an excuse to do so.  If you haven't started planning your exit from Harris County, you might want to start giving it serious consideration.

On September 10th at 8PM I would advise, for your sanity, that you find something else to do besides watch these two low-functioning idiots take the debate stand. You'll thank me for this.

Here's hoping Breaking is a one and done Olympic event.

It's official, everyone has a podcast now. The biggest issue with them, as it became with blogs years ago, is that very, very few of them have anything very interesting to say.

Dancing with the Stars continues to push the boundaries of Celebrity.

A disaster in slow motion. This is insane. Here's hoping they can find a solution, or provide some help, to these poor folks.

The Tesla CyberTruck is a disaster. It's not a truck, it's ugly as sin, and it's clearly unsound. Since only around 3000 have been purchased if you see someone in your city driving one you have just identified your village idiot.

Here's hoping for some semblance of recovery for Rebecca Cheptegei

And finally....

You should really pay no attention to College Football Top 25 polls right now. At best they are guesses, at worst, click-bait and fodder for bad TV & radio sports talk shows. (of which there are many).

Some thoughts after Zero Week and Week One in College Football.

Congratulations y'all.  We made it. College Football is BACK and, despite some old-timers protestations  to the contrary (self-included) it looks like it's all going to be fine.

And, yes, it was hard to find some true gems in what was a weekend full of relative blow-outs, there were some take-aways that I noticed and I'm going to summarize them here:

1. Florida State.

Let's just go ahead and get this one out of the way. There's a lot to unpack with this team. And while most of it centers on the offense, and the poor performances of DJ Uiagalelei, their defense, especially defending the run, is not good. Florida State has holes throughout their roster, most noticeably at QB, where I think we MIGHT just have witnessed the last Collegiate game for DJU, IF this Brock kid is ready that is. My guess would be the Mike Norvell keeps his job even IF the Seminoles continue to flame out.  After all, who could they possibly hire at this point that would be any better?

2. The 12-team playoff

If, by this time, you do not understand how the playoff works then you obviously did not watch College Football at all over the weekend. Seemingly every broadcast (ESPN/FOX/CBS) had an explainer on how a bracket works. It was infuriating, boring and after a while very repetitious. Hopefully that was just a one week thing. 

3. Ranking the Teams.

I'm not a fan of Top 25 rankings this early in the season. In fact, I wish they would just up and do away with them until say, mid-October.  That said, I do think there is some benefit in discussing where teams are in the pecking order, where they could be and possibly putting them in unranked tiers.  Here's my go at it.

Looking Playoff Ready Right Now: Georgia, Alabama, Penn State, Ohio State, Utah, Miami, Texas.

Not looking ready for the playoffs but could get there by the end of the season: Boston College, Michigan, Ole Miss, Oregon, USC, Notre Dame.

Stick a fork in them: Florida State (see above), Texas A&M, West Virginia, LSU, Florida, Clemson

For all of the other teams it's just too early to tell. Certainly there were some good performances but, and especially for the teams above in the "might get there" column many had great performances but it was against inferior competition. Many of those teams did not play their best, but they could improve by the end of the season.

One of those teams, I think, is Michigan.  And yes, I know I'm a fan but I saw enough on defense that I think this team will be OK by the end of the year, once the offense has a chance to gel. Unfortunately, I don't think they're going to be able to fix their issues prior to Texas rolling into the Big House.  As such, I have a large supply of whiskey on-hand for this upcoming Saturday.

4. Betting recap. 

Normally I'm not one to bet the opening weekend. I prefer to see the games, and get some actual, usable data.  I did well fading Colorado, Houston and Florida State. I did not do as well taking some shots at some big underdogs. All in all the opening weekend was a push. I've already loaded up my plays for this upcoming weekend which I'll share later, probably on Friday morning if all goes to plan.

As always, if you DO choose to place wagers on the game do so responsibly. Don't hire a tout service and bet within your means. If it's not fun, stop. If you find yourself chasing losses, stop. Betting is entertainment, treat it as such.  Also please remember that sports betting is illegal in many jurisdictions still. Know your local laws and know your outs for placing legal bets during the season. In many cases that might involve driving across State lines.

5. Final Thoughts.

After Week One it's easy to get irrational. "UNLV to the Playoffs" is one I've seen.  While UNLV looked REALLY good against what many thought would be an improved UH team, I still believe that NEXT year is the one to watch for the Cougars. Willie Fritz seems to have a knack for turning it around then, not in year one.  But UNLV's performance does show that the Odom miracle in the desert is probably more than a one-year fluke flash in the plan. This is a talented team with some depth across the roster. I still think Boise State is the team to beat in the Mountain West, but UNLV is #2 with a bullet.

As for the rest?

Again, Top 25 lists are worthless this time of year. There's a LOT of football still to be played in front of us. Top teams will play top teams and it will all work itself out in the end.  Enjoy the ride.