The question of who is the "Top 4" and in the College Football Playoff this year is a tricky one. Unless we have some major attrition the rest of the way, and history suggests we will, there are going to be a LOT of angry people arguing over who the number 4 team should be. If things play out as I expect, 1-3 should be pretty straight forward.
The problem comes when you start looking at the team's schedules, and records, and you start to realize that, outside of the top 3 (who are currently undefeated) NONE of the remaining team's have all that strong of a case for inclusion.
Let's look at the records....
1. LSU
Best Wins: Alabama, Florida, Auburn
Best Loss: None (undefeated)
LSU is a clear number one. They have three top-tier wins and one good win over Texas at a neutral site. It's just not close.
2. Ohio State
Best Wins: Wisconsin, Cincinnati
Best Loss: None (undefeated)
The Buckeyes are a clear #2. The gap between them and Clemson is actually pretty large as you'll see.
3. Clemson
Best wins: Texas A&M
Best Loss: None (undefeated)
The problem for Clemson is that there are no more opportunities for them to pick up a real, quality win. Unless the two above them lose, they will not be moving up from here.
4. Georgia
Best wins: Florida, Notre Dame, Auburn
Best Loss: South Carolina
Granted, they've only lost one, and the SC loss, at home, is a head scratcher. But they have three pretty solid wins that give them the edge now. Their problem? They have to face LSU in the SEC Title game. Ugh(a)...
5. Alabama
Best Wins: Texas A&M
Best Loss: LSU
They have a game against Auburn upcoming, but before that they play FCE doormat WCU. The Tide's schedule is awful this year and it's illustrative of the myth of the SEC Blender that all the coaches cry about. Even if they beat Auburn the argument for their inclusion is going to be flimsy, but my guess is, if they win out, they get in.
6. Oregon
Best Wins: USC
Best Loss: Auburn on a neutral field in the first game of the season.
Talk all you want about how "Oregon should have won that game" but they didn't, and the PAC-12 this year was not very good. Unless Bama loses I don't see them getting in with that schedule and the loss to Auburn, who will be a common opponent with the Tide.
7. Utah
Best Wins: Washington
Best Loss: USC
Another team with zero resume. They just haven't beat anyone good and the USC loss is probably enough to keep them out. A win over Oregon would help, but outside of that.....
8. Penn State
Best Wins: Michigan, Iowa
Best Loss: Minnesota
The Nittany Lions have a CHANCE to move up if they beat Ohio State this weekend, I would actually put them in over Bama should they win out, and win the B1G, but I don't see that happening.
9. Oklahoma
Best Wins: Baylor, Texas
Best Loss: Kansas State
They still have a shot to move up with wins over OSU and probably a rematch with Baylor in the Bix XII(Ten) championship game, but that loss to Kansas State is like a giant wart on their schedule. Needing luck to escape Iowa State at home hurt as well.
10. Minnesota
Best Wins: Penn State
Best Loss: Iowa
Really needed to win at Iowa, then two weeks from now against Wisconsin and again in the B1G Championship to have a chance. Outside of the two games I mentioned, they've just not played anyone of note.
The problem here is that Alabama is the 800 lb gorilla in the room. Yes, their schedule has sucked, they've lost their QB, but they still have the straightest path to the 4 seed because, ironically, they probably won't play for a conference championship.
In a season where there are two good teams, one team that's a defending champion, extremely talented but has under-performed, and a bunch of teams with bad schedules and rough losses, a 1-loss Tide with only a loss to LSU seems to be the choice the committee will make.
This is illustrative of everything that's wrong with the CFP, but there you are.
