Thursday, October 17, 2024

College Football look back Week 7 (And a look ahead to Week 8)

 My apologies for the radio silence last week, life got in the way.

After last week's game of the Century (of the week, again) we get ready for what ESPN is breathlessly calling "Possibly the BEST weekend in College Football HISTORY!!!!")

Meh.

I mean, Georgia v. Texas is probably going to be pretty good, and Alabama v. Tennessee is very promising, in the early window Indiana v. Nebraska has much potential but, after that, there are some good games but not many that I look at as right out bangers.

You do have to understand ESPN's position here however. They're trying their damndest to sell a still skeptical public on the joys of a 12 team playoff. Convincing us at every turn that the expansion of the playoff has not deemphasized the regular season.

Except that it has.

UGA lost to Alabama and yet their still right in it. Even IF they lose to Texas this weekend they're probably not right out of it because (rightly or wrongly) they'll still be viewed as one of the top teams in the Country because of the committee's SEC bias. A two-loss Georgia team is certainly still in the mix,

Who shouldn't be? Probably Alabama. Who, since beating Georgia, has looked bad. LSU who is definitely not great, and Ole Miss, who are overrated and continue to be despite their offense looking terrible over the past few weeks.

My thought was always that the SEC was overrated this year, and the non-conference results proved it. Outside of UGA destroying a not-too-good Clemson team, the SEC's OOC results were sub-par. I'm not saying the teams suck (they don't) but having them dominate the top 10 is a little ridiculous at this point. It's reputational rankings, not results-based rankings and I've a feeling this is exactly how the committee is going to view things when they finally have a say.

Perhaps the best story of the college football season are Army and Navy both sitting undefeated at 6-0. Both have good teams and are not there by means of a fluke. Army has been one of the most watchable teams of the season so-far and Navy looks strong. Notre Dame may want to rethink some of those "traditional rivalry" games that they used to feat on to pad their record.

As I said though, there's a LOT of watchable shit on TV this Saturday. There are some lines I believe are still vulnerable as well.

Utah (-4.5) over TCU - The Horned Frogs have NOT been good this year and, despite Cam Rising being out for the year (Sorry Cam, you deserved better) the Utes play strong defense and I cannot see TCU scoring any at all here.

Iowa (-5) over Michigan State - Michigan State is rebuilding, Iowa suddenly can play offense. I think the Hawkeyes win big here, but I also think that it's time for Kirk Ferentz to go.

South Florida (-13.5) over UAB - The hiring of Trent Dilfer might have been the worst head coaching hire of the off-season. The Blazers deserve better than this mess of a team.

Northern Illinois (-3) over Toledo - Yes, I realize that Northern Illinois has been inconsistent since beating Notre Dame and becoming the G5 Belle of the Ball, but Toledo has looked even worse since their 41-17 shellacking of a pretty putrid Mississippi State team. I liked this much better at -2.5 when I took it, but it still seems OK at -3.

South Carolina (+1.5) over OU - The Gamecocks being underdogs to OU is amazing to me here. I got this line at +3 which seems like a steal right now. The Sooners are reeling, they have almost all of their offensive production on the sideline, and the Gamecocks can play defense. I'm tempted to double down on the ML here to be perfectly honest.

Unlike two weeks ago, which I neglected to write about, I think there will be some upsets this week but it's not going to be the Top 15 blood bath that it was then. I think Michigan is very vulnerable to the Illini and I think Indiana might be in for tougher than they think against Nebraska.  That said, unlike in previous weeks there seem to be competitive games that could warrant watching in every window. It should be a fun game of College Football.


PSA: We're getting very close to the CFB Playoff Committee issuing their first rankings of the season. As a reminder, these rankings are crap, they do nothing but serve to fuel TV talk fodder and are about as useless as PAC-12 officials. Ignore them, and focus on the season, not the fake rankings designed to give First Take some content.


Enjoy the weekend and good luck however you decide to play these games.

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