Then Texas Voters did the political equivalent of throwing the car in reverse without popping the clutch. As Ron Burgundy would say "Wow, that escalated quickly."
I've mentioned it in prior posts so I won't totally recap here but, Democrats went from the political wilderness to pretty much controlling every state wide elected office, The Texas House and making great inroads into the Texas Supreme Court.
The one thing Republicans have left? A majority, albeit a dwindling one, in the Texas Senate.
Democrats do have the Governor's office however and, most importantly, the power of the appointment that the office holds. Figure on Gov. Hinojosa using this power to remake the State Board of Education and several other Executive departments over which she has control. She also has a bully pulpit now. One that, it should be noted, does come with a substantial voter mandate.
And what is that mandate?
1. Lower costs. When they joke the "Rent is too damn high" they mean it. Also, the cost of food is too damn high, along with medical costs, automobile costs and (increasingly in Texas) the tax burden. Realistically there's not much State Democrats can do lower many costs. Fuel is being driven by the Iran war, which also places price pressure on Food costs, so that's going to be a DC issue primarily. Rent is typically caused by supply and demand. They could increase the supply, in the long term if not the short term, by streamlining regulation and removing hurdles to the building of new residences but that's not historically been in their playbook. It would take a new brand of Democrat to accomplish that.
Nor do I expect Democrats to take a serious look at Texas tax structure. As a matter of fact, I don't see any major tax bills, outside of the revocation of business tax credits, to occur until after the 2028 elections. Texas Democrats top goal in 2028 is going to be to maintain their gains everywhere, and somehow gain control of the Texas Senate. But that's going to happen in the future and I don't think it will greatly affect tax policy until then. IF they can grab TX Senate control, then I would imagine almost anything is on the board. Taxes on the wealthy, a State income tax you name it. But that's not for now.
2. Stopping ICE operations in Texas. This is a big one, and it's one that I think local municipalities are going to drive more change than is Austin. There are now more City Councils, County Courts and other local government groups who oppose ICE state wide. I predict they will stop coordinating, without the threats that used to come from Austin Republicans when they did so.
3. Data Centers - This is actually the one area where I think change is going to happen. Already some Republicans have filed bills to remove the tax abatements from Data Center operators. If Hinajosa wants a quick win this could be an area that she gives a lot of attention to. Making the Data Centers pay for their own energy and water costs would be a start. Eliminating the aforementioned tax abatements is probably another area where both parties will work together. After that I'm unsure what could be done. An outright data center ban feels unlikely, and possibly unwise.
There are other issues, to be sure, where Democrats will focus. The Expansion of Medicare is one, targeted lawsuit "reform" (meaning: moving the needle in the area the Trial Lawyers Association would like) and probably looking at cutting at the edges of oil and gas company profits by rolling back, or reducing, tax incentives that the industry currently takes advantage of.
There biggest hurdle? As previously stated, Texas Republicans still have a majority in the Texas Senate and early signs skew toward them taking a Scorched Earth approach. People forget that the ONLY THING the Texas Congress is required to do by the Constitution every session is pass a biannual budget. That's it, nothing else.
It's already been said that Texas Republican Senators view themselves as the last Bulwark between Texas and a transmogrification into the People's Republic of Texas. Because of this belief, a LOT of people feel that the Republicans could decide to go one of two ways.
1. (Less Likely) Try to work with the Democrats to move a few things across the finish line in-line with the voter desire to lower costs. As I stated earlier, there might be some movement on Data Centers, and possibly some smaller wins for Governor Hinojosa if the Democrats choose the correct bills.
2. (More Likely) The Republicans in the Texas Senate decide to go scorched Earth. In this scenario even a budget becomes a slog, with some Republicans being willing to extend the session in what they believe will be a black-eye for Democrats. One early sign of which way they are going to lean is when they meet to decide what power they're going to give to Lt. Gov Vicki Goodwin. IF they vote to strip the power of the office bare, then it's going to be one of THOSE types of sessions.
The thing is, I really could see the Republican Senators trying to dig their heels in here. Republicans spent 30+ years working, negotiating and horse-trading for what gains they got in Texas, I don't see them just rolling over and letting Democrats roll them back in a session, or even three. All of this is provided the Republicans maintain a majority in the Texas Senate that is.
And here's the rub. When he was Lt. Gov, Dan Patrick railed against the presence of the "Rosebush Bill" and he was successful. Now, the Republicans can certainly attempt to bring this back, and I suspect they will. But the toothpaste has already been squeezed out of the tube so to speak so they run the risk of this backfiring in the public eye. "Rules for thee but not for me" is always a political ploy that plays poorly with the electorate.
Either way, the 2027 Texas Legislative Session is sure to be a doozy. The only question remaining is just how much of one the Republicans are going to push to make it.
No comments:
Post a Comment