Yes, I'm no longer a political blogger but, given that today is election day, I feel compelled by the blogger code to at least make some utterly worthless election day predictions. These are worth exactly what you paid for them so here we go.
President: I think Mitt Romney wins the popular vote in a squeaker, somewhere around 50.2 to 49.8 but Obama wins the Presidency by virtue of the electoral college. 271-267. You can see my map here: http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bseS
I also think that we won't know for sure who the winner is for quite some time because it will come down to Ohio, and their recount procedures will drag this out.
Texas Senate: Cruz in a landslide. I'm not sure of the exact number, but Cruz will be closer to 60% than 50%.
US Senate: The Democrats retain the majority in the Senate with with somewhere around 52 Dem senators being elected. I like the Real Clear Politics Senate Page for these races.
US House: I like the Republican's chances here to gain a seat or two. Again, I'm using the Real Clear Politics page as a guide. Currently, 224 seats are either safe Repub or "lean Republican" with 33 toss ups. I think the Repubs grab about 18-20 of those 33.
Texas Statewides: No shocker here: I'm predicting a sweep for Republicans. There may come a time when Texas Democrats nominate and run a quality candidate for a State-wide office, but it won't be the election cycle.
Texas House: The Republicans will retain a large majority. Possibly even their super majority
Texas Senate: Not much movement in overall numbers, but a lot of new faces.
I don't predict any major upsets in these races.
Harris County:
- Sheriff: Garcia wins fairly handily.
- District Attorney: Anderson wins, again pretty handily.
I will be part of the under vote on both of these races.
- County Attorney: Ryan hangs on to win 52-48. Not a fan of Talton but I'll hold my nose and vote for him. Ryan has not been the "watchdog" that he's promised, nor has he distinguished himself much in this position. The Dem's main argument for voting for him is that he's not Republican. Meh.
- Tax Assessor-Collector: Mike Sullivan should win but I think it will be close. Ann Harris Bennett is not a good candidate. Seems like a nice lady, but who knows. Of all my picks I could be 100% wrong on this one. Sullivan is hit or miss with a lot of people, and doesn't do much to fire up the conservative base. Watch the under vote here.
Metro Referendum: I don't see any way that this fails. As a matter of fact, I think it passes handily with over 60% of the vote.
City of Houston Bonds: I see them all passing, and then much hue and cry coming from the resulting tax increases.
HISD Bonds: I'm torn on this one, but at the end of the night I think they'll squeak out a win. Of all the bond proposals these are the most specious. Still, the Houston electorate has shown a willingness to back poorly designed bond packages provided they're packaged correctly. The packaging on these, and the resulting PR campaigns by the appropriate groups, means something.
HCC Bonds: I think these pass fairly easily. Even the Texas Conservative Review came out for them.
And finally:
Harris County Judges: With all of the attention paid to these by the Republican Party I think the (R) under vote is going to be pretty small. I expect the Republicans to pick up a few seats, but the Dems will point to this as a "victory" as the night progresses relative to the rest of their Texas election slate.
And that's it. So.......go out and vote.
Showing posts with label Purple fingers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Purple fingers. Show all posts
Tuesday, November 6, 2012
Monday, December 14, 2009
New Poll: Voting on Light Rail in Houston
With all of the talk about John Culberson's "Congressional Hold" on Metro's Light Rail expansion plans, and a call for a second election regarding said plans, it makes sense to take a look at the arguments being used for as well as the arguments against holding a second rail-based election.
First, the two main arguments for:
1. Metro's 2003 Solutions plan (Which the 2003 referendum authorized) has been altered from its original form to the point that what Metro is now proposing is unrecognizable from what voters approved. - The key argument against this logic is that Metro Solutions 2003, as with any large program, was meant to be viewed as a framework for future transit and was not "cast in stone" as critics contend. That works out OK except for the fact that there were a few specific proposals in the Solutions plan (a 50% increase in bus service for example) that were key to it gaining support that have been removed from the plan.
2. The East-end support isn't there. - Winning over the East-End Chamber of Commerce (and it's residents) was crucial to Metro winning the 2003 election. Now that the Harrisburg line is promising to be more trouble than it's worth, that support will not be there. This is a dubious case to make about a democratic election. There are many things that are legal, but which do not have widespread public support. If a new election is required to get anything done every time the parameters of a plan change then nothing will ever get done.
Now, the two main arguments against:
1. A majority in the Houston Region support light rail. - We don't know that. What we do know is that in 2009 (for the first time) A good-sized majority of polled respondents supported the addition of a "rail component". We also know that a sizable plurality supports using a mixture of roads, trains & light rail as the best solution for future transit. What the Survey is not able to provide is what mixture said plurality deems to be ideal. It's hard to say, right now, where the Houston Region stands on the revised Metro Solutions plan. Since the major information sources on this issue have deemed it necessary to mis-report the issue (MetroSolutions = Mass Transit) we'll probably never know.
2. We already have buy-in from the 2003 referendum. - As stated above, to MetroRail supporters it doesn't matter that the spec's of the plan have changed, only that Light Rail is being built. This, they feel, was the underlying mission of the 2003 MetroRail referendum. Yes, there are things that could be done better and yes, Metro is not expanding fast enough for them, but all of those complaints are specifically due to a relatively small group of Rail deniers whose object is to rid the County of light-rail altogether, sinking us into the dark ages of bus transit. In some respects, this is true, there is a large portion of the anti-Metro faction whose sole purpose is the moth-balling of the entire Metro Light-rail system. Here's an excerpt from a Barry Klein e-mail that is going around describing the same:
Which leads us to the new HCA: "Participating In Social Speaking" poll question of the day.
The poll will be open until Christmas.
First, the two main arguments for:
1. Metro's 2003 Solutions plan (Which the 2003 referendum authorized) has been altered from its original form to the point that what Metro is now proposing is unrecognizable from what voters approved. - The key argument against this logic is that Metro Solutions 2003, as with any large program, was meant to be viewed as a framework for future transit and was not "cast in stone" as critics contend. That works out OK except for the fact that there were a few specific proposals in the Solutions plan (a 50% increase in bus service for example) that were key to it gaining support that have been removed from the plan.
2. The East-end support isn't there. - Winning over the East-End Chamber of Commerce (and it's residents) was crucial to Metro winning the 2003 election. Now that the Harrisburg line is promising to be more trouble than it's worth, that support will not be there. This is a dubious case to make about a democratic election. There are many things that are legal, but which do not have widespread public support. If a new election is required to get anything done every time the parameters of a plan change then nothing will ever get done.
Now, the two main arguments against:
1. A majority in the Houston Region support light rail. - We don't know that. What we do know is that in 2009 (for the first time) A good-sized majority of polled respondents supported the addition of a "rail component". We also know that a sizable plurality supports using a mixture of roads, trains & light rail as the best solution for future transit. What the Survey is not able to provide is what mixture said plurality deems to be ideal. It's hard to say, right now, where the Houston Region stands on the revised Metro Solutions plan. Since the major information sources on this issue have deemed it necessary to mis-report the issue (MetroSolutions = Mass Transit) we'll probably never know.
2. We already have buy-in from the 2003 referendum. - As stated above, to MetroRail supporters it doesn't matter that the spec's of the plan have changed, only that Light Rail is being built. This, they feel, was the underlying mission of the 2003 MetroRail referendum. Yes, there are things that could be done better and yes, Metro is not expanding fast enough for them, but all of those complaints are specifically due to a relatively small group of Rail deniers whose object is to rid the County of light-rail altogether, sinking us into the dark ages of bus transit. In some respects, this is true, there is a large portion of the anti-Metro faction whose sole purpose is the moth-balling of the entire Metro Light-rail system. Here's an excerpt from a Barry Klein e-mail that is going around describing the same:
Second is a resolution prepared earlier this year by Buses are Better, a group of activists in Houston who think a bus only system is wiser than bus-and-rail.
Which leads us to the new HCA: "Participating In Social Speaking" poll question of the day.
Should there be a second public referendum regarding Metro Solutions?
The poll will be open until Christmas.
Monday, November 23, 2009
The Bill White-A-Palooza (Gubernatorial Edition)
In case you haven't heard:
White's making the jump from the (someday)TX-Sen race to the (Certain) race for TX-Gov.
According to the report on the Texas Tribune, the State Democratic Party is working to clear the field for the primary.
Good move. The last thing White supporters want is to be stuck in a run-off with a no-name candidate or even worse (for Democrats) a run-off with Kinky Freidman.
UPDATE: Texas Tribune hits the ground running with Moderate 2.0 or...Why White could win.
UPDATE Deux (Pt 1): They might as well call themselves The Bill White Tribune.
UPDATE Deux (Pt 2): Texas Watchdog gets into the act.
UPDATE Deux (Pt. 3): In the InterLeft there was much rejoicing.
White's making the jump from the (someday)TX-Sen race to the (Certain) race for TX-Gov.
According to the report on the Texas Tribune, the State Democratic Party is working to clear the field for the primary.
Good move. The last thing White supporters want is to be stuck in a run-off with a no-name candidate or even worse (for Democrats) a run-off with Kinky Freidman.
UPDATE: Texas Tribune hits the ground running with Moderate 2.0 or...Why White could win.
UPDATE Deux (Pt 1): They might as well call themselves The Bill White Tribune.
UPDATE Deux (Pt 2): Texas Watchdog gets into the act.
UPDATE Deux (Pt. 3): In the InterLeft there was much rejoicing.
Friday, November 20, 2009
The Noise Machine (11/20/09)
It's a free-for-all.
It seems that Gene Locke "hearts" Mary Benton and can't stand Texas Watchdog...Stay Tuned. (BlogHouston is predicting a Locke Tax Return release on Wednesday @ 4:30 in the afternoon, which is the Thanksgiving week equivilent of a Friday evening press release -news the candidates wish to sweep under the rug-) HCA is throwing it's wager behind 5:00 PM, after most people have left town or have started cooking turkeys.
He who hesitates is lost....to the tune of $82 Million dollars.
Dumb move.
Yeah, OK, Gene Locke's wife is the bee's knees, but is she a ChronBlogDim BrightBulb? Because until she is count us as less than impressed.
Hey, Roy...can you spare a few thousand voters?
So Houston voters waited a week for this? (More importantly: Can we get a refund?)
It seems that Gene Locke "hearts" Mary Benton and can't stand Texas Watchdog...Stay Tuned. (BlogHouston is predicting a Locke Tax Return release on Wednesday @ 4:30 in the afternoon, which is the Thanksgiving week equivilent of a Friday evening press release -news the candidates wish to sweep under the rug-) HCA is throwing it's wager behind 5:00 PM, after most people have left town or have started cooking turkeys.
He who hesitates is lost....to the tune of $82 Million dollars.
Dumb move.
Yeah, OK, Gene Locke's wife is the bee's knees, but is she a ChronBlog
Hey, Roy...can you spare a few thousand voters?
So Houston voters waited a week for this? (More importantly: Can we get a refund?)
Wednesday, November 18, 2009
The Government we deserve...
We either elected them, are going to have the opportunity to elect them, or they're given opinion-maker status by the media...*
Radnofsky questions the legal status of marriage in Texas (And blames current AG Abbott for making it so)
That's right, more anti-homosexual rhetoric. (This time by many time failed political candidate Dave Wilson who, in a sane society, would be laughed off the reservation)
Did the City of Houston just spend $600K to aid Senate-Candidate White's campaign? (The "Houston Hope" project is being listed by his campaign as one of his successes) {This after warning the next Mayor about spending money the City doesn't have}
Whoever the next Governor is, will be looking down the barrel at a financially unstable school system.
*Depressing isn't it?
Radnofsky questions the legal status of marriage in Texas (And blames current AG Abbott for making it so)
That's right, more anti-homosexual rhetoric. (This time by many time failed political candidate Dave Wilson who, in a sane society, would be laughed off the reservation)
Did the City of Houston just spend $600K to aid Senate-Candidate White's campaign? (The "Houston Hope" project is being listed by his campaign as one of his successes) {This after warning the next Mayor about spending money the City doesn't have}
Whoever the next Governor is, will be looking down the barrel at a financially unstable school system.
*Depressing isn't it?
Tuesday, November 17, 2009
Creative Omissions
Houston Mayoral Press releases are flying back and forth today, with each candidate seemingly anxious to cast themselves as the "true financial reformer" in the race.
Annise Parker got the ball rolling questioning Locke's "conflicts of interest" stemming from his many connections (or, past connections, according to the Locke campaign) with Houston area insider organizations, many of whom have had a large role in crafting Houston public policy for three decades.
True to form, Locke responded by pointing out Parker's votes against the tax-rate decreases proposed by Mayor White during her time sitting on City Council. In response to that, the Parker camp fires back that Locke should "come clean" regarding his financial relationship with Andrews-Kurth and throws out the "cloud of impropriety" card....(Crowd: Ooooooh)
Two things:
1. Locke's ad only tells part of the story. For one, Mayor White's tax-rate 'cuts' were very controversial at the time. Not only were there revenue desires by districts that led to 'no' votes, but there was a legitimate gripe that the cuts were cosmetic, and only meant to buy votes. Second, Locke leaves out Parker's strong record of good fiscal stewardship when running her department at City Council and as Controller.
2. Parker's ads contain some pretty creative omissions as well. For one, to date there has been no taxpayer bailout for the financing bills surrounding Reliant Stadium, Minute Maid Park and Toyota Center. Taxpayers have not been left "holding the bag". While I believe the potential is still there regarding an eventual taxpayer bailout, we're a long way from that point and it could still be averted by some wise decision-making by the next Mayor. Second (and possibly most importantly): Who was the City's "fiscal watchdog" during the time Andrews Kurth was taking advantage of City taxpayers by billing $604/hr? Oh, that's right....Annise Parker.
The take-away from this should be that each candidate is bringing some pretty strong negative baggage with them into this run-off. Gene Locke has to shed the "insider" mantle if he wants Hosutonians to believe that the age of running the City for the benefit of a few select interests has really come to an end. Annise Parker has to convince voters she'll do a better job minding the entire City than she did minding its finances during her term as Controller.*
It's connections vs. competence in the home-stretch. I'd like to say the person who does the best job answering the big question their campaign faces will be the winner, but I think we all know better than that...
The winner will be the candidate who does the best job rallying their base and getting out the vote to what's sure to be a very low turnout run-off.
*See!?! An entire post about the Mayoral and not one mention of the whole gay thi....oh wait....nevermind dammit.
Annise Parker got the ball rolling questioning Locke's "conflicts of interest" stemming from his many connections (or, past connections, according to the Locke campaign) with Houston area insider organizations, many of whom have had a large role in crafting Houston public policy for three decades.
True to form, Locke responded by pointing out Parker's votes against the tax-rate decreases proposed by Mayor White during her time sitting on City Council. In response to that, the Parker camp fires back that Locke should "come clean" regarding his financial relationship with Andrews-Kurth and throws out the "cloud of impropriety" card....(Crowd: Ooooooh)
Two things:
1. Locke's ad only tells part of the story. For one, Mayor White's tax-rate 'cuts' were very controversial at the time. Not only were there revenue desires by districts that led to 'no' votes, but there was a legitimate gripe that the cuts were cosmetic, and only meant to buy votes. Second, Locke leaves out Parker's strong record of good fiscal stewardship when running her department at City Council and as Controller.
2. Parker's ads contain some pretty creative omissions as well. For one, to date there has been no taxpayer bailout for the financing bills surrounding Reliant Stadium, Minute Maid Park and Toyota Center. Taxpayers have not been left "holding the bag". While I believe the potential is still there regarding an eventual taxpayer bailout, we're a long way from that point and it could still be averted by some wise decision-making by the next Mayor. Second (and possibly most importantly): Who was the City's "fiscal watchdog" during the time Andrews Kurth was taking advantage of City taxpayers by billing $604/hr? Oh, that's right....Annise Parker.
The take-away from this should be that each candidate is bringing some pretty strong negative baggage with them into this run-off. Gene Locke has to shed the "insider" mantle if he wants Hosutonians to believe that the age of running the City for the benefit of a few select interests has really come to an end. Annise Parker has to convince voters she'll do a better job minding the entire City than she did minding its finances during her term as Controller.*
It's connections vs. competence in the home-stretch. I'd like to say the person who does the best job answering the big question their campaign faces will be the winner, but I think we all know better than that...
The winner will be the candidate who does the best job rallying their base and getting out the vote to what's sure to be a very low turnout run-off.
*See!?! An entire post about the Mayoral and not one mention of the whole gay thi....oh wait....nevermind dammit.
Friday, November 13, 2009
Conservative Group fires first shot in the Great 2009 Houston War O' Gay...
Led by Dr. Stephen Hotze, State Sen. Dan Patrick and the other usual gaggle (pack?) of conservative noise-makers from the "agin' it" arm of the ever-shrinking local Republican Party has decided to throw their weight against the rising tide of rampant gayness that's threatening to wash over Houston Municipal Governance.
The leading lesbian in this charge on the gates of the straight monopoly on registering at Macy's, overpaying for outfits you'll wear once, bad dancing, cheap liquor, bad food and (50% of the time) extra-marital affairs is one Annise Parker who, to be fair, has been happily cohabiting with her partner (despite no official designation of "marriage") for longer than most local conservatives have been well....while not exactly 'conservative' something closer to society prudes who are very concerned about what lurks within the hearts and minds of men (and women) that's in anyway different than how they think and love and feel.
Presumably, if you believe the players in this drama, the real problem is not Parker by her lonesome. The problem is adding openly gay City Council candidates (and probable winners) Lane Lewis and Sue Lovell to a mix that somehow equates (in the minds of the anti-gay group) to some vast and grand conspiracy of gays to take over and dominate Houston city government.
Aside from better interior design at City Hall, the scourge that our city's social guardians are hell-bent on protecting us from is the extension of benefits to same-sex partners. After all, we can't have the government providing health-care to the partners of gay office-holders...obviously this is one of those federal jobs...oh no wait....they're opposed to federal health-care as well.
By way of a public service, and as a means to try an inject some life into this heretofore boring-assed campaign, might I humbly suggest that the three GLBT candidates pool their resources and release a joint campaign commercial utilizing this song: Broadway and frothing Republicans....it's a win/win for all of us.
The leading lesbian in this charge on the gates of the straight monopoly on registering at Macy's, overpaying for outfits you'll wear once, bad dancing, cheap liquor, bad food and (50% of the time) extra-marital affairs is one Annise Parker who, to be fair, has been happily cohabiting with her partner (despite no official designation of "marriage") for longer than most local conservatives have been well....while not exactly 'conservative' something closer to society prudes who are very concerned about what lurks within the hearts and minds of men (and women) that's in anyway different than how they think and love and feel.
Presumably, if you believe the players in this drama, the real problem is not Parker by her lonesome. The problem is adding openly gay City Council candidates (and probable winners) Lane Lewis and Sue Lovell to a mix that somehow equates (in the minds of the anti-gay group) to some vast and grand conspiracy of gays to take over and dominate Houston city government.
Aside from better interior design at City Hall, the scourge that our city's social guardians are hell-bent on protecting us from is the extension of benefits to same-sex partners. After all, we can't have the government providing health-care to the partners of gay office-holders...obviously this is one of those federal jobs...oh no wait....they're opposed to federal health-care as well.
By way of a public service, and as a means to try an inject some life into this heretofore boring-assed campaign, might I humbly suggest that the three GLBT candidates pool their resources and release a joint campaign commercial utilizing this song: Broadway and frothing Republicans....it's a win/win for all of us.
Tuesday, November 3, 2009
The HCA election night post.
This post is being written to comply with Section 1(d) Sub 8.2 of the Election blogging manual.
Tough night for the ChronBlog headline writer*:
As Matt Bramanti notes: Dewey defeats Truman! Maybe someone should be monitoring these real time?
For those of you wondering "huh"? Here's some quick math:
29.8-25.9= 3.9
25.9-23.8= 2.1
The "tighter" race is between Locke and Brown for the second spot in the run-off.
Third time's a charm.
Best (relatively higher profile) race of the Night: Palm Holm (31.6%) and MJ Khan (31.5%) at 39% of precincts reporting to see who gets to challenge Ronald Green (35.9%) in a run-off.
Sign that the apocalypse is upon Houston: C.O. Bradford (he of the crime lab fiasco and K-mart debacle) is nearing election with almost 52% of the vote.UPDATE: With 58% reporting Bradford is down to 50.1% (And with that I'm going to bed)
Sign that Houston might be OK: Both Jolanda Jones (41.9%) and Sue Lovell (48.8%), who spent as much time arguing and bickering as they did governing, probably will have to go into run-off elections to keep their seats. (Way to go Houston) *Or...at least...around 200,000 of you.*
Proof that Internet polls are worthless: Roy Morales won the HCA "best of the worst" poll by one vote. (Margin of error +/- pretty much infinity)
My thoughts are: What part of town is still out? What polls there were in this race seemed to show Peter Brown leading among minority groups. Is the 40% that's "in" from the more Anglo West Side? Or the more diverse East/South side of Houston? I figure around 20% is the absolute ceiling for Morales. Still, I'm wondering what kind of odds you could have received before the election that he'd end up that high?
*To be fair, real-time results in elections move pretty quickly, so these are more humorous than anything else.
Tough night for the ChronBlog headline writer*:
As Matt Bramanti notes: Dewey defeats Truman! Maybe someone should be monitoring these real time?
For those of you wondering "huh"? Here's some quick math:29.8-25.9= 3.9
25.9-23.8= 2.1
The "tighter" race is between Locke and Brown for the second spot in the run-off.
Third time's a charm.Best (relatively higher profile) race of the Night: Palm Holm (31.6%) and MJ Khan (31.5%) at 39% of precincts reporting to see who gets to challenge Ronald Green (35.9%) in a run-off.
Sign that the apocalypse is upon Houston: C.O. Bradford (he of the crime lab fiasco and K-mart debacle) is nearing election with almost 52% of the vote.UPDATE: With 58% reporting Bradford is down to 50.1% (And with that I'm going to bed)
Sign that Houston might be OK: Both Jolanda Jones (41.9%) and Sue Lovell (48.8%), who spent as much time arguing and bickering as they did governing, probably will have to go into run-off elections to keep their seats. (Way to go Houston) *Or...at least...around 200,000 of you.*
Proof that Internet polls are worthless: Roy Morales won the HCA "best of the worst" poll by one vote. (Margin of error +/- pretty much infinity)
My thoughts are: What part of town is still out? What polls there were in this race seemed to show Peter Brown leading among minority groups. Is the 40% that's "in" from the more Anglo West Side? Or the more diverse East/South side of Houston? I figure around 20% is the absolute ceiling for Morales. Still, I'm wondering what kind of odds you could have received before the election that he'd end up that high?
*To be fair, real-time results in elections move pretty quickly, so these are more humorous than anything else.
Monday, November 2, 2009
Election Day Eve
What, you want predictions?
Uh....No.
But you can find them here, here and here. I've been out of the pick the winner game for a couple of elections now, and I'm sure not going to pick this snoozer of a race to hop back in.
What I will do is hand out some awards. Just for grins, I think I'll call them the Significant Houston Internet Triumph awards. Recognizing significant Internet triumphs by Houston bloggers everywhere.
Best Polls: musings...
I mean...come on...
Best Use of Awards designed to highlight the author's status as an "insider", Best use of the Mayoral race as an excuse to build up one's future campaign consulting prospects & Best shameless self-promotion
Mayoral Musings by Nancy Sims.
Here's just a sample...
Best Blog Value-Add to the current election
Charles Kuffner's Candidate Interviews.
Agree or disagree with the man's politics all you want....his interviews are solid.
Best running election commentary
Slampo's Place. Again...A sample:
Worst polling by someone who should know better
Bob Stein and KHOU - Not only is there a weak screen for likely voters, but it just feels like Stein is mailing it in these days. His recent work has been almost indefensible even by those who supports the results he's been producing.
The "true" winner of the Houston Mayoral Race
Let's be honest with one another here....None of the candidates on the ballot hold a candle to don't know/undecided. That's right "None of the Above" is the winner.
Best political endorsement:
The ChronBlog Caucasian Think-Tank's weak-assed co-endorsement of both Annise Parker and Gene Locke. - If the former newspaper of record-Houston's largest political blog, who has more access to the candidates than any one Houston citizen can't take the time to make an informed choice....why the hell should anyone else? I reserve a space here for the "best show of hubris" award when the CCTT screams at Houstonians for not voting.
Which...of course...leads us to....
Best political ad:
Gene Locke's use of the dramatic pause - You may not be voting for the guy, but that ad was campaign poetry in motion.
Because of the general below-averageness of this race one prediction I will make is a low turnout. A very low turnout. I for one don't blame Houston one iota for not caring....If this is the best we can do God help us.
Uh....No.
But you can find them here, here and here. I've been out of the pick the winner game for a couple of elections now, and I'm sure not going to pick this snoozer of a race to hop back in.
What I will do is hand out some awards. Just for grins, I think I'll call them the Significant Houston Internet Triumph awards. Recognizing significant Internet triumphs by Houston bloggers everywhere.
Best Polls: musings...
I mean...come on...Best Use of Awards designed to highlight the author's status as an "insider", Best use of the Mayoral race as an excuse to build up one's future campaign consulting prospects & Best shameless self-promotion
Mayoral Musings by Nancy Sims.
Here's just a sample...
I would consider my household to be a “habitual voter” address. If there is an election, at least one of us votes. Bonds, specials, generals and run-offs, we are there. We also live in a high-voting, transitional inner loop precinct. It is genuinely a “swing box”, meaning it splits the vote between Republican and Democratic voters. Given that, we have not received as much mail as one might have expected. We have seen other mail pieces though and feel confident in our assessment.I mean, it wasn't even close.
Best Blog Value-Add to the current election
Charles Kuffner's Candidate Interviews.
Agree or disagree with the man's politics all you want....his interviews are solid.
Best running election commentary
Slampo's Place. Again...A sample:
We've finally realized what it is we've found subconsciously bothersome about mayoral candidate Peter Brown, and the revelation came via the hand of whichever artful contriver fashioned his plentiful television commercials. What Brown promises is magic, that with a stroke of his drafting pencil he can transform blueprints into reality, without the intercessionary messiness of politics, or the application of political skills (neither of which––politics or political skills––we're fully convinced he possesses).
His truly are some of the most honest political advertisements we've ever seen.
Worst polling by someone who should know better
Bob Stein and KHOU - Not only is there a weak screen for likely voters, but it just feels like Stein is mailing it in these days. His recent work has been almost indefensible even by those who supports the results he's been producing.
The "true" winner of the Houston Mayoral Race
Let's be honest with one another here....None of the candidates on the ballot hold a candle to don't know/undecided. That's right "None of the Above" is the winner.
Best political endorsement:
The ChronBlog Caucasian Think-Tank's weak-assed co-endorsement of both Annise Parker and Gene Locke. - If the former newspaper of record-Houston's largest political blog, who has more access to the candidates than any one Houston citizen can't take the time to make an informed choice....why the hell should anyone else? I reserve a space here for the "best show of hubris" award when the CCTT screams at Houstonians for not voting.
Which...of course...leads us to....
Best political ad:
Gene Locke's use of the dramatic pause - You may not be voting for the guy, but that ad was campaign poetry in motion.
Because of the general below-averageness of this race one prediction I will make is a low turnout. A very low turnout. I for one don't blame Houston one iota for not caring....If this is the best we can do God help us.
Thursday, October 22, 2009
Who are these "fiscal conservatives" of which you speak....
Take One part progressive blogger...
Mix it all together and you've got?
According to some "Fiscal Conservatives" for Annise Parker.
Now, I'm not going to deny Parker's bonafides (in comparison to the other candidates of course) here, nor am I going to argue against her suddenly squeaky clean fiscal prudence (again, given the competition). Nope...I'm not. As a matter of fact, I'm on record as endorsing Ms. Parker for Mayor. Granted, I feel that she's the "best of the worst" and my recommendation is more along the "do the least harm" vein but still, it's an endorsement right?
What I don't see are large groups of fiscal conservatives running to support Parker. Hell, if anything, they (and blacks FWIW) are supporting Peter Brown. There are a lot of theories out there as to why this is, most of them wrong. Peter Brown is in the lead because of his high energy and endless verve....Most of it displayed prominently on various television ads.
Peter Brown is everywhere, proving that even a man whose campaign sends nastygrams to people who tweet that he's no longer carrying an active architect's license(something that's true BTW), can hire a good PR firm and find himself a constituency. I'm willing to bet you that 70% of average voters aren't aware that Parker is gay, and possibly as many as 50% don't know a damn thing about Gene Locke, maybe they don't even know he's black.
In local politics it's all about exposure, especially on TV, during prime time, preferably when singing, dancing or annoying British judges casting come-hither looks to allegedly hopped up on pain pills and bourbon former pop diva judges are on. That's the real sweet spot in local politics, right after Simon asks Paula if she's a fan of spotted dick.
Just remember to stay away from any local production of Channel 13, or Dynamo games. After all there has to be enough voters watching to move the polls. Fiscally conservative or not.
While Locke and Brown are squabbling over who deserves the Republican vote, Annise Parker is rising above that fray, looking good as the fiscally conservative choice for mayor of Houston for both Democrats and RepublicansA blogger who has openly endorsed Annise Parker FWIW (not disclosed in the above post) add in one campaign e-mail from Annise Parker who cut and pasted the post word for word, and who also lists said progressive blogger on their list of 'supporters'.....
Mix it all together and you've got?
According to some "Fiscal Conservatives" for Annise Parker.
Now, I'm not going to deny Parker's bonafides (in comparison to the other candidates of course) here, nor am I going to argue against her suddenly squeaky clean fiscal prudence (again, given the competition). Nope...I'm not. As a matter of fact, I'm on record as endorsing Ms. Parker for Mayor. Granted, I feel that she's the "best of the worst" and my recommendation is more along the "do the least harm" vein but still, it's an endorsement right?
What I don't see are large groups of fiscal conservatives running to support Parker. Hell, if anything, they (and blacks FWIW) are supporting Peter Brown. There are a lot of theories out there as to why this is, most of them wrong. Peter Brown is in the lead because of his high energy and endless verve....Most of it displayed prominently on various television ads.
Peter Brown is everywhere, proving that even a man whose campaign sends nastygrams to people who tweet that he's no longer carrying an active architect's license(something that's true BTW), can hire a good PR firm and find himself a constituency. I'm willing to bet you that 70% of average voters aren't aware that Parker is gay, and possibly as many as 50% don't know a damn thing about Gene Locke, maybe they don't even know he's black.
In local politics it's all about exposure, especially on TV, during prime time, preferably when singing, dancing or annoying British judges casting come-hither looks to allegedly hopped up on pain pills and bourbon former pop diva judges are on. That's the real sweet spot in local politics, right after Simon asks Paula if she's a fan of spotted dick.
Just remember to stay away from any local production of Channel 13, or Dynamo games. After all there has to be enough voters watching to move the polls. Fiscally conservative or not.
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