College Football: It's Bowl Season!!!!! (Part VII)

We're nearing the home-stretch now. Don't nap out on me.

Let's just get to the games....


TaxSlayer Bowl. 12:00 PM ET. Saturday, Dec 30th.

[8-4] Louisville (-6.5) vs. [8-4] Mississippi State  T: 63

This is your last chance to watch Lamar Jackson play in a college football game. Don't miss it. Unfortunately you won't get to see him take on Miss State's Nick Fitzgerald, who suffered that brutal ankle injury in the Egg Bowl. Add to that the fact that MSU head Coach Dan Mullen has taken his chin to Florida and I think the Bulldogs are in for a rough night. That said, Louisville's defense could be called "not good" so MSU has a puncher's chance at least.

Pick: Louisville to COVER -6.5 and OVER.



AutoZone Liberty Bowl. 12:30 PM ET. Saturday, Dec 30th.

[7-5] Iowa State vs. [10-2] Memphis (-4.0) T: 65.5.

What if I told you that Iowa State's LB/QB Joel Lanning was an Iron Man player who will see snaps on offense, defense and special teams? What if I told you that Memphis all-World WR Anthony Miller was a walk-on?  Iowa State's story this year has been great, but I think Memphis should easily be ranked higher than they are. I expect Tiger QB Riley Ferguson to come out and put on a show. Plus, the Memphis defense is not good but Iowa State's offense has been leaking oil down the stretch. Translation: A TON of points.

Pick: Memphis to COVER -4 and OVER.



Playstation Fiesta Bowl. 4:00 PM ET. Saturday, Dec 30th.

[10-2] Washington vs. [10-2] Penn State. (-2)  T: 55.

It's unstoppable force meets (sorta) immovable object as Penn State's outstanding RB Saquon Barkley takes on the Nation's top-rated Rushing defense from Washington. Up the middle, Barkley could find the going rough, but I think James Franklin has had plenty of time to realize this and we're going to see many, many variations of the toss sweep and screen passes to get Barkley the ball in space. Of note: on the three occasions Penn State did struggle, it was against teams that ran the ball well. The same argument could be made for Washington however, they just faced teams determined to run the ball less often.

Pick: Penn State to COVER -2 and UNDER.



Capitol One Orange Bowl. 8:00 PM ET. Saturday, Dec 30th.

[10-2] Miami vs. [12-1] Wisconsin (-6.5)  T: 45

The Orange Bowl is a classic motivation game. Both teams had designs on making it to the College Football Playoff and both teams fell JUST short.  Who shows up to play determines the game.  Miami's turnover chain was the most fun thing in college football this year and they're going to need it to make multiple appearances to win.  Wisconsin is not a team that typically turns the ball over but QB Alex Hornibrook can become loose with the football. I think Wisconsin has something to prove and Miami comes out flat.

Pick: Wisconsin to COVER -6.5 and OVER.



Outback Bowl. 12:00 PM ET. Monday, January 1st.

[8-4] South Carolina vs. [8-4] Michigan. (-7.5)  T: 43.

All season long I've refused to pick Michigan games. I'm a fan and am admittedly either incredibly positively biased or overly pessimistic. Call this game the latter. Don't get me wrong, I still have faith in Harbaugh, but it's not as much as it once was and I consider next year to be a critical year.  South Carolina and Michigan are almost identical teams. Very good to great on defense, sketchy as hell on offense.  Get ready for some hitting, sexy punting and field goals.

Pick: South Carolina to COVER and UNDER.



Chic-Fil-A Peach Bowl. 12:30 PM ET. Monday, Jan 1st.

[12-0] Central Florida vs. [10-3] Auburn. (-9.5) T: 67.

There is so much wrong with the lines on this game I don't know where to start.  If Auburn wins by more than 9.5 there's no way the total is going to be close to 67. If UCF covers there's no way the game is not going over.  UCF has had a dream season but Auburn's defense is like nothing they've ever faced.  UCF also struggles defensively and Auburn QB Stidham should be able to take advantage of that. Idiots such as Paul Finebaum and others think UCF has no chance and are going to get "dusted". I think UCF has enough offensive firepower to keep it closer than the experts think. This is not going to be your grandparents SEC "defensive battle".

Pick: UCF to COVER -9.5 and OVER.



Citrus Bowl, 1:00 PM ET. Monday, Jan 1st.

[9-3] Notre Dame vs. [9-3] LSU (-3) T:  51.5

The public perception for this game is way off. Everyone sees LSU vs. ND and they think a defensive battle is brewing, but neither of these defenses has been especially good this year, and LSU doesn't do the one thing ND needs them to do: turn the ball over. LSU has been playing much better since laying an egg against Troy, and EVERYONE gets up to play the Irish.  Notre Dame still can't score. That's a problem for them.

Pick: LSU to COVER -3 and OVER.


And, except for the College Football Playoff, that's it.  We'll be back with one last installment before the Semi-finals, and then we break down the championship game and then we're done with college football (sob) for around 7-8 months.

Enjoy the games.