College Football Look-Back Week 5 (And a look-ahead to week 6)

Do you remember, way back (OK, around 5-6 weeks ago) at the beginning of the season when I said that all of these early season Top 25 polls are pretty much useless?

Today we give you the 3rd Number 1 team in all the land in three weeks.  Welcome to the Party Alabama. Long may you reign (until the next game of the season, of the month, of the week that is). That said, at this point, I would argue that Alabama does have the best win of the season to date and has been adjusted to number one in my power rankings, but that doesn't mean that any of that matters at this point. What IS going to matter are the CFP Committee rankings, and even then those are worthless until the last poll, which, really, is the only one that matters.

That doesn't mean that the polls are not good for something.

That something being sports talk show fodder and milestones for teams like UNLV which has found itself ranked for the first time in school history. Regardless of my feelings on in-season polling, that's somewhat of a big deal for them. Congratulations Rebels.

I had also stated earlier that I thought Missouri and Ole Miss were two of the most overrated teams in the Country.  I was proven correct on Ole Miss, Missouri is likely to continue to be overrated and will win this week against equally (albeit lower in the rankings) UCF which will drive them even higher.

I'm starting to buy-in to Tennessee, begrudgingly, they still haven't played a top team, but I'm not a believer in Michigan, as that USC win is looking more and more like "meh".

Another area where I think people are getting it wrong is in the Heisman race. To my mind, there are only three players who really should deserve serious discussion right now.  Boise State's Jeanty, Colorado's Hunter & Alabama's Milroe.  I get that the flavor of the year has been Cam Ward so far, but he's not even the best player on his own team, that honor probably goes to Reuben Bain.

We're not going to go a long way towards unwinding this mess this week either. The most telling game might be Mizzou at aTm, Kyle Field is a rough place to play but the Aggies are unranked and have issues trying to rebuild from the Jimbo Fisher error. BYU will get a huge test at home versus Arizona. The Wildcats can be dangerous, although inconsistent on offense with QB Fifita but they have been inconsistent this year on both sides of the ball. Ohio State seems to have a speed advantage over Iowa but the Hawkeyes have actually been.....decent? on offense this year.  I kind of lean over in that one.

From a betting angle I'm really liking UNLv (-6.5) over Syracuse. What the Rebels looked like last week against a solid Fresno State team was impressive.

I'm also a fan of some undogs this week. Some to cover, some to win outright.

Michigan State +24 vs. Oregon. Look, they held in there for a bit at Ohio State and Oregon is NO Ohio State.

Missouri (ML) @ aTm. I've said above, Kyle Field is a tough place to play. I think Mizzou is that much better than Aggie.

North Carolina (ML) @ Pitt  The Tarheels have been one of the most snake-bitten teams in college football this season, and it feels like this on is the one that Mack Brown should hang it up. That said, my numbers have a pretty good lean toward North Carolina and I just feel like the old guy has one more upset left in him.

Army (-11.5) vs. Tulsa. This one is pretty simple. My numbers have Army by 17 here. Army is good, Tulsa is not. Sometimes you just have to trust your numbers and don't overthink it.

West Virginia vs Oklahoma State (u65.5). Neither offense has been even all that good this season and my numbers have this at around 56.5. I just can't see an offensive explosion here.

Florida (ML) vs. UCF.  The Gator faithful are just about to run Billy Napier out of town. UCF came into the season with a lot of buzz but the "quality" wins they have had (Houston, TCU) are feeling less and less quality as the weeks drag on. The Knights loss to Colorado was ugly as they got boat-raced out of the Bounce House (and even let Colorado run the ball successfully, which is almost unpossible if you're a good defensive team. I think Florida's young QB looks better This line opened at -1.5 Gators at home, which I thought was about right. when it switched to UCF -2.5 I jumped on Gators ML.

And finally....

Michigan (ML) vs. Washington. I know, I know, I know. I have a rule against betting on teams I root for.  This one is a pure analytics play. I have Michigan as being much better than Washington. That Michigan is an underdog makes zero sense based on what I'm seeing.  The Wolverines with Orji in at QB have been much better than when he's on the bench.  I had to take a little shot. Since I have broken my unwritten rule though you should probably fade this bet since I'm almost guaranteeing they are going to lose.

The Country the Missus has chosen for our College Football Cooking Spectacular is Germany.  I'm planning on Beer Broiled Brats, a Gluten free Schnitzel and all the gluten free beer and Schnapps she can drink.

Have fund this weekend.  Two, pretty good, small school games tonight and a full 5 games on  Friday.

Thursday:

Texas State @ Troy - 6:00PM CDT (ESPNU)

Sam Houston @ UTEP - 8:00PM CDT (CBS Sports Network)

Friday:

Jacksonville State @ Kennesaw State - 6:00PM CDT (CBS Sports Network)

New Hampshire @ Harvard - 6:00PM CDT (ESPN+ ONLY)

Houston @ TCU - 6:30PM CDT (ESPN)

Michigan State @ Oregon*** 8:00PM CDT (Fox)

Syracuse @ UNLV*** - 8:00PM CDT (FS1)

*** I have action on these games.

It's the end of the Comp as we Know it. (And I'm not Fine)

 In October this year Mrs. TPM and I visited Las Vegas for our "Birthday" trip.  It was technically the week before both of our birthdays (She, Oct 30th. Me Halloween) but we always time it like this because it's easier for me to take off of work during that week.

And, for the first time in about 5 years, we actually set foot on the Las Vegas Strip.

The occasion was a Vegas Golden Knights game. Our birthday gift to each other.  We were staying at Silverton (more on that in a later post) so we took an Uber down to Mandalay Bay, and walked down to NY/NY Casino where we sat at the center bar to allow me to play a little VP prior to the pre-game.

Shock #1:  Even when playing video Poker, you cannot get a Tito's and Soda comped.

Some context here:  I was playing Triple Play, Double Super Times Pay at the Quarter level. That's $5.25 per bet.  As I was reminded, on my last moments on Twitter (X, whatever) that's still a "low roller bet". Yes, it is. I've never stated that I was a high-roller, nor am I making that case here. What I was saying was that I had never had "that" particular alcohol denied at "that" particular bet level. Hell, I've never been denied Tito's and Soda at $1.25/hand.

There's a reason that the Strip has been a no-fly zone for me for quite a while now. Going back to it I was reminded why I did not miss it at all.

Shock #2: $16 bucks for said Tito's and Soda

The second argument made to me was that Tito's was a "premium liquor".

Uh, no. It's most certainly not. If you think it is then you know remarkably little about actual, premium liquor. Tito's is a GOOD vodka at a relatively low price point. A "Premium" Vodka would be Chopin, or Belevedere. (Grey Goose (I guess) which is more marketing and hype than actual quality. Tito's is a much better vodka to be perfectly honest.)

And $16 for a Tito's and Soda is close enough to price gouging as makes no difference.  You can almost buy an entire bottle (750ml) for that amount. Go ahead, look it up.  I'll wait.

Shock #3: Given the prices they charge, the Strip casinos are remarkably shabby.

Dirty, in disrepair in places. Whatever they're using the money for in those now it's not maintenance folks.

When you add this to the news, from these folks that MGM is no longer allowing for redemption of MyVegas (Konami) free play when staying in a comped room, it all adds up to the realization that gambling comps, are the first on the firing line for Strip casinos.

Free play and free drinks are what made gambling in Vegas a greater value proposition than gambling at a locals casino for some. You can debate the pros/cons/worthiness of Comp (or VooDoo) match to your hearts content, at the end of the day saving $100-$200 on food, around $1,000 on a room and receiving $200-$300 in free play, is money that I would not otherwise be able to dedicate to gaming, shows, entertainment or other expenditures.

Yes, you can still receive comped rooms fairly easily through MGM and Caesars, provided you're willing to pay their resort fee, and a pittance in "resort credit" but if you're looking for free play or other gaming related comps the value is no longer there. And it's going to get worse.

The issue with a LOT of the Vegas vloggers and bloggers and Twitter (X, whatever) experts these days is that, despite calling themselves degenerates, none of them are actually GAMBLERS. "What's the difference?" you ask. Well, I'll tell you.  Degenerates hop up on a penny slot and press the heck out of that button, often blowing through money, going to the ATM and then blowing through that.

Gamblers have worked on gaming in an effort to try and get better. There is a strategy to Video Poker that you can learn, there is advanced strategy (above and beyond the basic strategy cards the casinos will sell you) in blackjack. And I'm not referring to card counting. There are people who have played Baccarat for years and can cut up a shoe no matter what the trend is. There is even some, limited, strategy and technique to dice throwing (setting, proper bounce off the wall) that can slightly improve your odds at Craps*. There is no strategy that can help you win at slots.

Even as someone who considers themselves a gambler (not a professional, but a gambler, I admit to just sitting down at a slot and hitting the button on occasion. I'm a sucker for Dancing Drums, I'm a sucker for Piggy Bankin' etc. Some times it's just fun to sit down at a machine, press a button, and laugh at the music and graphics for a bit. To root hard when you get a bonus, or when you tip the lid of the pot, that you're timing was right and you got something good. This is usually after a frustrating session of video poker where you were on a machine with a good pay-table (none of those on the Strip either FWIW) had played perfect strategy for an hour or so, and drew absolutely the cards you didn't need every time. For me, the slots are a sometimes much needed mental break.

Look, I'm not saying that you should not go to the Las Vegas Strip. If you want the fancy bars, the celebrity restaurants, the night-clubs, the party-pools and the illusion of luxury, and aren't worried about paying for it, then the Las Vegas Strip is going to be your place. If you want to party and party and spend money and gain card status off of that spend then the Strip is still probably OK for you.

But if you want to GAMBLE. I mean really GAMBLE to the level that you have a host at several places, are getting decent comps, resort credits and free-play based off of that gamble then the Strip is certainly no longer for you.

Las Vegas is the Entertainment Capitol of the World. What it is no longer is the Gambling Capitol of the World and I don't think they have much of a prayer of regaining that title.

*Note: There is a LOT of disagreement as to whether dice setting or throwing the dice properly to where they barely bounce off the wall works, there are proponents on both sides.

Wow it's been a while. (Let's get the lights back on)

In case you haven't noticed, and by the lack of any questions regarding this blog it appears that you haven't. I've been gone for a long time now. Not "gone" gone, just not feeling like updating my weekly college football plays and other general blogging gone.  Not for the lack of things to talk about (realignment anyone?) or gambling trips, not Vegas mind you, we haven't been to Las Vegas since October of last year, as I stated in my last post about being done with it for a while.

Well, I guess a "while" is now.  Because after almost a year away we're heading back to the penny-pinching, nickel and diming mecca that is Sin City.  Not on the Strip, mind you, never on the Strip.  And given the traffic and PR nightmare that has become F1 Las Vegas I'm pretty sure our Strip days are even more done than they were before.  

Also done will be our time at Green Valley Ranch. Unless something drastically changes this trip, and early signs are not looking grand, we're going to have to find a new "locals" joint.  Our host there left the company. And since we've gotten our new host service has declined rapidly.  The last room we had there, in October, was probably the worst room in the joint. Dirty, old, badly in need of some TLC. Add to it a mess of an issue with the front desk, someone requested an early departure and they put it on our room number in error which resulted in housekeeping banging on our door demanding we leave. I had to go down to the front desk and sort it all out.  Texted our host and....nothing. No response, no I'm sorry, no offer of compensation due to the whole mess.  Even the front desk was dismissive. "Oops", basically being the response.  Add to that the fact that my offers have been throttled, despite my level of gambling staying the same, and we're there this upcoming trip will be just to use up any comps and free play, then we'll begin the slog of finding a new off-strip home.

We do still love Circa however, and it's our downtown go-to. 21 and up with great amenities, friendly staff and the best rooms downtown equal my kind of place. We'll be spending a lot of time at the bars there banging out VP sessions and hoping to win some money.

And, yes, you've figured it out. We're heading back to Las Vegas. In previous years we would visit there 3-4 times per year. We've decided to limit that to 2 for the foreseeable future. Once in August for our anniversary, and again in October for our Birthdays.  The rest of our time in casinos will, for now, be spent in Oklahoma.  Choctaw Casino & Resort treated us really well on our last visit there, and River Spirit in Tulsa is still the place where we are treated the best.

As for sports betting?  I'm not going to do "The Five" this year, or any weekly series really. I'll probably start commenting more on college football rather than just sharing picks of questionable value. What I've learned on some time here is that no one cares much about betting picks from an accountant in Houston. what I've not yet learned is whether or not anyone cares about the sports opinions of an accountant in Houston. Time will tell.

So going forward we're going to try something new. A mix of Gambling, gambling news, food, travel and other hodge-podge. Not from the perspective of a high-roller, but from the perspective of a normal couple who just love to venture out and see what's what.  Hopefully you enjoy. the good news is, if you don't, you will have gotten what you paid for.

I guess if all else fails I can just post pictures of Charlo.

Good luck, good eats, good drinks.

College Football: The Red River......whatever.

When UT-Austin and Oklahoma-Norman play tackle football it's always a big week. People in my generation grew up calling it the Red River Shootout, but the woke folks over at ESPN have decided that such things are no longer allowed.

So, we have had the Red River Showdown, Rivalry and a host of other names, none of them which have stuck.

What we do know is that it's a pretty big rivalry game (yes, we still miss UT-Austin vs. aTm on Thanksgiving) that's pretty much appointment viewing because something weird is going to happen.

..........

I've decided, moving forward, to get rid of the FIVE.  One of the big reasons is that I'm not comfortable being forced to pick 5 games.  There are weekends where I have more than five, and some where I only have one or two that I really like. So I'm replacing that little experiment with this, an overview of the weekend at hand, I'll share some things that I'm considering but offer no picks.

..........

Tonight I like Houston.  I grabbed them at -4.5 early in the week and the line has since moved to -6.5 or -7, but I still like them against Tulane. After stubbing their toe against Tortilla Tech in the season opener the Cougars have started to get things together and, especially on defense, are starting to get on a roll.

I also like Temple as a big dog (+29 currently) against a Cincinnati team that I think is going to have a "we just beat Notre Dame team in their house" hangover.  I don't like Temple to win, but I do like them to cover comfortably.

Another play that I'm really liking is Stanford +13 against Arizona State. The Cardinal are a good team, not a great team, that can stay close to other good teams as are the Sun Devils. I'm still not a believer in the fighting Herm Edwards.

..........

Aside from those three games I think Michigan State (-6) is light against Rutgers as is Louisville (-2.5) vs a Virginia team whose defense cannot stop a hard-charging Jr. High Marching Band.

..........

Outside of the Red River game, the rest of the schedule does not pop-out to the eye, on paper. It's during weeks like this however that college football endlessly surprises.

Good luck however you bet.

College Football: Giving the FIVE a week off.

Last week was a college football blood-bath. My worst week in a couple of years.  The FIVE struggled to a 1-4 record which lowers my season tally to 10-10 which is only .500 and now places me below the vig.

Ouch.

I am taking off this week to re-evaluate my numbers and try and figure out where the noise is in my model. This means stripping it down and evaluating where I'm getting it wrong. So my CFB betting this week is a test of my new model and not reflective of the FIVE.

I will have some things to say about other gambling stuff, and that will come later in the week.  IF I'm happy with my new numbers this week we'll bring back the FIVE next week and see if we cannot continue moving forward at a better clip.

Enjoy the weekend's games.  Alabama vs. Ole Miss should be a scorcher.

Good luck however you bet.

College Football: The Week 4 FIVE

Into every life a little rain must fall, and to every college football better a disappointing week must occur. Such was my week three. Disappointing performances by teams that I thought would play a LOT better (Looking at you Virginia) some downright silly things (Hi San Jose State) and a really wrong take on a game. (Auburn)

This left me at an underwhelming 2-3 for the weekend and staring down the barrel at my first losing week on the FIVE. Overall we're still OK, 9-6 for the season which is still good, but we were hoping for so much more.

My strategy this week was to grab lines early, once they were posted before they had a chance to move, to try and catch the market at its least efficient.  Let's see where we land this week.....

1. Kansas State (-7) vs. Oklahoma State (Curr: -6 O/U 46)

The Cowboys are NOT a good team this year, and I really think Kansas State is. I would not be at all surprised to see the Wildcats walk away with the win on the ML. I'm quite happy taking a touchdown and extra point here.

2. Michigan State (-4) vs Nebraska (Curr: -5 O/U 52)

I have been very impressed with the Spartans this year and have raised my rating of them. I have been very disappointed with Nebraska this year and have lowered my ratings significantly.  I envision a scenario where Michigan State runs away and hides here.

3. West Virginia (+16.5) vs Oklahoma (Curr: +16.5 O/U 56)

I'm a little surprised that this line has not moved toward the Mountaineers yet. Oklahoma's defense is, to be blunt, still not good and West Virginia has a quality offense. WVU also play pretty solid defense for a Big XII team. I don't see much more than a FG between these two teams and I'm certainly contemplating the over.

4. Liberty (-6) vs Syracuse (Curr: -6 O/U 52.5)

The Flames are really good, the Cuse is not. Head Coach Dino Babers has not thrived in New York and Hugh Freeze has done a good job building Liberty into a very, very solid team. I think six might be a gift here.

5. Utah State (+9) vs Boise State (Curr: +9 O/U 70.0)

Yet another line that I expected to move toward Utah State but has not. I'd be surprised if you can still grab +9 at kick off. Yes, Boise State gets a bump for playing at home on the Smurf turf, but their opponent is a really strong Utah State team that would again not surprise me if they won this outright.

Honorable Mention:

Northwestern (-14.5) vs Ohio (O/U 48)

That it is a bad number is the only thing that kept this game out of the FIVE. Northwestern is a decent team playing a very bad team at home. Blowout potential.

And Finally....

Michigan (-20) vs. Rutgers (O/U 50)

If anything, I like the Over here but I hate, hate, hate this line for Michigan. If anything, I'd almost take Rutgers here but the bad line makes it a pass.  But Go Blue! anyway.

Good luck to you however you bet.

College Football: The Week 3 FIVE

 Last week was a nail-biter. We started off rough, 0-2 after the first two games, and then rallied to finish 3-2 for the week (including the BYU ML call) which brings us to 7-3 for the season, 8-4 overall (which includes bets not in the FIVE)  As I stated before, one of the biggest issues with college football season is self-editing. It's easy to find a dozen games on which you have a lean, but we don't bet leans.

With that in mind here's the third week of the FIVE.

1. Auburn (+6) vs. Penn State. (Curr: +5.0 O/U 53.0)

I'm pretty high on the Tigers this year, and I actually think they have a solid shot of pulling off the outright upset in Happy Valley. But, I'm not brave enough to pull that trigger. So I'm going with the spread and thinking there's about a FG between these two teams.  It will be another "White out" for Penn State, which is pretty much any game they play at home now which is causing it to lose it's luster a bit.

2. Utah State (+8) vs. Air Force. (Curr: +8.0 O/U 54.0)

I think Air Force is a tad bit overrated due to them beating up on a pretty not-good Navy team last week. Utah State has been in pretty tough so far this year, and I think that they have enough to keep it very, very close against Air Force.

3. Virginia +9 vs. North Carolina (Curr: +9 O/U 66.5)

I'm still seeing a disconnect between my downgrade of North Carolina, due mainly to all of the skill position players they lost, and the odds, so I'm rolling with that. Virginia has a very good offense and a defense that I think is going to give the Tar Heels fits.

4. San Jose State (-7) vs. Hawaii. (Curr: -6.5 O/U 61.5)

Last year the Spartans won the Mountain West, and despite an up and down start I think they're much better than a down Hawaii team this year.  Plus: This gives me a reason to stay up until all hours of the night for a Hawaii game.

5. Michigan State +6.5 vs. Miami. (Curr: +6.0 O/U 56.5)

My analysis on this one is simple: Miami is the most overrated team week after week on the odds board. At some point the adjustment will come but until it does, I'll even take a bad number against them.

Honorable Mention:  UCF -6.5 vs. Louisville. (O/U 67)

This promises to be an offensive showdown between two teams looking to re-establish themselves as top teams. I like UCF here. I think a blowout UCF win is much more likely than a blowout Louisville win.

And Finally.....

Michigan -27.5 vs. Northern Illinois (O/U 54)

Yes, yes, yes, we all LOVE Michigan right now after they made mince-meat out of the Washington Huskies, but Michigan cannot throw the ball and eventually teams are going to figure that out. Playing offense one-handed is tough. Michigan NEEDS to develop their passing game sans Ronnie Bell.

Good luck to you however you bet this weekend.

College Football: The Week 2 FIVE

After missing a couple of bets in week 0, we rebounded nicely in Week 1 going 4-1 for the FIVE (curse your conservative nature David Cutcliffe) and 7-2 overall. This brings us to 4-1 for the FIVE this year (yay) and 7-4 overall for the young college football season. (As a reminder, I only list the FIVE but I have other plays. I'm not selling plays, these are just the ones that I really liked when typing out this blog.)

Week Two can often be a lot of fun because the market tends to overreact to a small sample size in week 1. This means that there is often opportunity to be found in some lines that are skewed off of what your numbers show they should be. Early in the season, trust your numbers. This might get a little more dicey later in the season as the market gains efficiency, especially in the Power 5 conferences but, for now, I trust what my numbers are telling me.

With that in Mind......

1. Illinois +10 @ Virginia. (Curr*: +10 O/U 55)

Here's one where I think the market is overreacting to a team in a classic sandwich week, losing to a lesser known team that's actually pretty darn good.  UTSA are a contender in Conference USA, West Division, and have a pretty salty offense.  Virginia beat up on an FCS foe that they should have beaten and I think they are getting too much credit for that, while Illinois is taking too much blame.

2. South Carolina +2 @ East Carolina (Curr: -1.5 O/U 56.5)

This line opened at -3 SC at most books, and almost immediately moved to ECU -2.  When I saw SC at +2 -110 at my book I pounced. Even at -1.5 think this is playable, maybe even up to -2.5. Watching line moves and taking advantage of a market issue is a feature, not a bug in sports betting.

3. Oklahoma State -12.5 vs. Tulsa  (Curr: -13 O/U 51.5)

OSU did not look impressive against Missouri State in their opener. And Tulsa looked even worse, loving to UC Davis at home. It typically takes any Mike Gundy coached team a game to get things moving, but they usually perform much better in game 2 vs game 1.  I think we're going to see that here against a Tulsa team that's probably going to struggle in the AAC this year.

4. Rutgers -2 vs. Syracuse (Curr: -2.5 O/U 52)

As I predicted last week, Rutgers was MUCH the better team than Temple. NOT the Temple that people think of when Matt Ruhle was coaching there. I think Syracuse is overrated after facing an Ohio team that's having to deal with a late head coaching change after the retirement of Solich. I expect to see Rutgers win comfortably this week and next week against Delaware, before their schedule gets much, much tougher.

5. BYU ML +220 vs. Utah. (Curr: +220, -7 Utah, O/U 49)

BYU did not look spectacular over a fairly pedestrian Arizona team, while Utah beat up FCS member Weber State. Because of this Utah is installed as a fairly good sized favorite, with people believing that their transfer QB is the key to them finally getting an offense that matches their always good defense. There are a couple of reasons that I like the Cougars here though. 1. It's still early in the season and they have not yet been beaten down by the sausage grinder of a schedule that they go through as an independent. 2. It's not unusual for Utah to look good against inferior competition.  Finally, this is the Holy War. Strange things happen when the Holy War is played in Provo.

Honorable Mention: Coastal Carolina -25 vs. Kansas. (Curr: -25, O/U 52)

Friday's game is going to get ugly, early.  Kansas has the best coach that they've had since Mangino but the talent cupboard is bare, bare, bare.  I see this as a 56-10 type of game. (You might want to play the over as well if you're so inclined.)

And finally.....

Washington @ Michigan (-7, O/U 48.5)

Being a Michigan Man I always have to talk about Big Blue, despite the fact that I would not touch this game with a 20 foot betting pole. Losing Ronnie Bell for the season is going to hurt, meaning that someone in the WR corps is going to have to step up. Washington did get beat by Montana, at home, and now they have to go on the road to the Big House but.....it's Michigan.  Stay away, stay far away.

But Go Blue.

*Current lines taken from ESPN.com as of 12:39PM on Wednesday, 9/8/21. It is probable that, by the time you've read this, things have changed.

College Football: Let's Kick off the FIVE with this gigantic Week 1.

 It is, finally, College Football Season.  As such I think it's the perfect time to bring back the weekly FIVE.

I had no play on last night's game. My analytics said UAB but the human element recognized the friendship of the coaches and the ties of the head coach for UAB to Jacksonville State so I passed. But I have Five other games that I really like this week so I'm going to share them here.  I will put down the lines that I got as well as the current lines for your convenience. (Current lines pulled from ESPN.com for convenience, your mileage may vary at your chosen book)

So, without further ado......

1. Rutgers (-13.5) vs. Temple (Curr: -14.5) Temple is not your Temple team from the Matt Ruhle era, and Rutgers is much better with the return of Schiano. It's not clear whether this game will be played tonight as planned, or tomorrow and Saturday due to the after effects of Hurrican Ida, I don't think it matters. Not as much of a fan of 14.5 but I think 14 is OK if you can get it,

2. Bowling Green (+35.5) (Curr: -35) I loved the hook here, Tennessee has a new coach and is breaking in a new system. I think they win, but five touchdowns is a LOT of points for a team with a new coach and QB and a host of other new players to be laying.  Even at home.

3. Duke (-6.5) (Curr: -6.5) Yes, Duke is breaking in a new QB, and they have some questions. But Charlotte is not a good team and if Duke cannot beat them by a touchdown they have much bigger issues than a new QB.

4. Western Michigan @ Michigan (U67) (Curr: 67) While I think Michigan beats WMich I do think both offenses are not going to look spectacular. This feels like an extremely high number to me as I see this game being somewhere in the 24-10 range, Michigan still has a good defense, I think that matters.

5. Texas Tech (-1.5) (Curr: -1) Call this a bet against the Houston Cougars more than a bet for Texas Tech. Coach Dana Holgerson has, so far, been far less than Tillman Fertita expected. Given their off-field issues and a bevvy of questions I'm not entirely sure the Cougars keep this all that close.

Honorable mention: (JUST missed the cut) San Jose Spartans (+14) vs. USC. (also current). Every year people fall in love with USC, and under Son of Love Coach they always disappoint. This is a TOUGH San Jose squad who has a game under their belt.  Upset probability here is high.

Good luck to you however you bet.

Well, we survived Las Vegas

 Anniversary trip.....done.

And a profitable trip as well, thanks largely to a $1 progressive Royal at 4Queens. Always nice to hit those.

The rest of the trip was good, we had good fun downtown, good fun at Green Valley Ranch, and just a general good time all around.  As you saw in my prior post you can follow my antics in Las Vegas on my Twitter account. @CoryWCrow If you're reading this blog and enjoying it a follow would be much appreciated.

Twitter is where you will find most of my activity now. But, you're gong to be seeing something different because, after the last Las Vegas trip, I've decided to drastically curtail the amount of alcohol that I consume.

I'm not giving up alcohol totally, I'll still have the occasional beer whilst grilling and some wine with dinner, but I'm 100% giving up hard liquor, and generally giving up drinking and gambling as well. I'm doing this more for health reasons than because I'm an alcoholic or anything like that. To be perfectly honest, I've just gotten tired of hangovers as I get older.

I also did a count of the calories I've been drinking and no wonder I'm not losing any weight.  So whiskey is out, and vodka, and gin.  Even beer and wine is going to be less rather than more.

In short, I'm not getting any younger, and I cannot rebound from a hard night of Las Vegas drinking like I used to. In fact, my plan is to make my birthday trip in October a totally sober one. Sober gambling, hmmmm.....

On other notes, College football is kicking into high gear. Saturday was my typical week zero result (0-2) but they were min bets so I'm not too worried about it. Might need to adjust some numbers though, especially on Nebraska, UCLA and Hawai'i.

Outside of that, prayers to Louisiana, I'm about done with the Paul brothers and everyone rest up, because the weekends are about to get REALLY busy.

Buckle up as this blog is about to get sports betting heavy.

A Las Vegas Blog, A Las Vegas Break.

Will be a little silent here on the blog for a little bit.

Taking a Las Vegas break.

You can follow my exploits on my Twitter feed or you can see my live (ish) trip report on Vegas Fanatics

Now, let's go win some jackpots.

Gambling: Maybe Casinos CAN "Flip the Switch" on Slot Machines?

I want to start this out by making a very clear statement:

I DO NOT BELIVE THAT THE CASINOS ARE CHEATING. I am accusing no one in this post of violating any laws, any regulations, or switching machines to the benefit, or detriment, of any one player. I am not in any way suggesting that this is happening nor do I have ANY proof that it is. I cannot be more clear about this.  All I am doing in this post is trying to extrapolate what some people might think based on news today, NOT what people are doing.

Ok, with that out of the way........

One of the more hotly contested urban legends surrounding casino slots is whether or not the machines payback percentage can be immediately changed by casinos to different levels via technology. On the one hand, you've noticed that one day casinos slots are allowing for more play and maybe even paying out then suddenly, on say.......Friday night when the casino is busy, suddenly the play goes away the jackpots stop rolling in and it appears that the machines have all gone dead.

"Balderdash" say the Casino operators, "That is too small of a sample size and we'd have to go to the gaming board to change the chip and that's just not practical, NO WAY this is true."

Except, maybe it is?

Slot Management Software Leads to Record 2Q Full House Results. Richard N. Velotta, Las Vegas Review Journal

The article is fire-walled so I'm not going to quote here, only to encourage you to go read this.

In short, Full House Resorts Inc. may have just said the quiet part out loud. Namely, that the Konami Gaming Slot Management System resulted in record profits.

The system in question is called SYNKROS and while details of it's functionality are sparse on it's website there are a couple of important things to note in the "slot" section....

"From Ticket-In-Ticket-Out (TITO) to Patron Tracking, SYNKROS supports the tools necessary for smooth slot game operations and growth. Leading advances and features built for continued optimization and performance keep players connected with the conveniences they enjoy and loyalty benefits they expect, all with comprehensive administrative analytics and control."

I'm not sure about you, but the bolded above seems to me to suggest that casinos CAN, in fact "flip the switch" on machines concerning payout percentages. I'm not suggesting that this can be used to trigger a jackpot, that would be illegal and I do not believe anything illegal is happening.  But I do think that it IS reasonable to assume that casinos can adjust payback percentages on slots at their whim. In most cases I now believe that they have pretty much cate blanche to do this provided they remain above State minimums.

How wide spread this is, and whether or not say, a Konami system could be used to control an Aristocrat slot machine?  I have no idea. But that some level of control is available, and allowed by gaming regulators, can no longer be denied?

Of course, there are some troubling concerns that this type of software raises.

1. How fine is the control that these systems allow? Is it POSSIBLE that they allow a casino to lower the hold on one machine, say, a machine that a YouTube Vlogger is currently filming themselves play?

2. Can they increase the hold on a player who has been winning?

Look, and let's be very clear here and say this again: I DO NOT believe that the casinos are cheating. And again I DO NOT believe that the casinos are cheating. One reason is because they don't HAVE to cheat, the odds are in their favor on every game inside of them. The other reason is that, if players believed they were not getting a fair game, they would go elsewhere, but I think the lesson from this is that they CAN certainly change the hold on slots without changing the EPROM chips as they claim, and that lack of transparency leads to doubt.

Even the publicly available description of SYNKROS states that it allows for "upgrades of EPROM chips remotely and instantly".  That's a pretty big thing, because EPROM chips control slot hold.

As with anything, the lack of transparency surrounding slot hold is going to be the elephant in the room. A good gambler knows and understands the odds and house edge on every game in the casino, except slots. This has always been a problem that casinos have faced convincing players that these machines are straight, fair games. Hell, even on Video Poker, where the house edge is openly discernable via the pay table that is on prominent display, some people believe casinos can change the Random Number Generator Not true by the way, but some believe it. (Although it IS an open question whether or not a RNG is truly random, but that's due to limitations in computer power, not human intervention)

News stories like this just increase this skepticism and might end up doing more harm than good in the long-run.  I would encourage casinos to become more transparent about their slot hold percentages going forward.

Because, based on this, I think the answer as to whether or not they CAN flip the switch is that Yes, they can. What we don't know is when and what the rules are around flipping said switch, or how often it happens.  And that's going to raise questions.

Gambling: Why Does the Media Continue to get Sports Betting so Wrong?

 Bloomberg: Odds are sports betting will bring trouble.

If you don't mind, take a minute before reading my response to read the article above.

Done?

Good, let's get started.

But, where to begin?

How about as his beginning, recapping the great betting scandals of the past. While all of them were pretty big scandals it's important to note one key point: In almost all of the cases the fraud was initially sniffed-out by the legalized sports books themselves. THEY presented the information to the authorities, worried about odd action on their boards.

Off-shore, gray-area sports books would, rightly, not do this, for fear of prosecution. Two wrongs do not make a right and what-not. But to act as if off-shore, illegal (in the United States) gambling is not happening is akin to pretending the Sun is not shining because you're in a room with blackout curtains and cannot see it.

The simple fact is, when it comes to uncovering fraud, better odds are with legalized, rather than off-shore books. History has shown this to be true many times over.

His second big point is about problem gamblers. And, he's right. Problem gaming is going to need to be something that the United States and the gambling industry are going to have to get a handle on quickly. They need to get ahead of the game.

Not surprisingly, the governments are not doing much to address it, other than some flowery words about "caring for the player" and what-not. The people actually doing the work are in the Industry.

Take, for example, the American Gaming Association and their page on responsible gaming. While I do feel that we're lagging behind on how to handle this, I was glad to see them mention a National Hotline for problem gambling, rather than the pock-marked system of State hotlines we have today.

It should go much further. An Opt-out request to the National system should be transmittable and transferable to all jurisdictions Nationwide. It should be a 1-800 number with qualified counselors on-call 24-7.

Casinos need to do more as well. They current track play, and they can see when someone is repeatedly hitting up the ATM.  They can back you off if they believe you are an advantage player, why can they not do the same when they suspect you are on Tilt? Probably not a permanent ban in this case, but a temporary pause. Possibly if you get too many hits on the pause button then something longer term is considered. But, and this is important, don't just make the "When the fun stops" pamphlets available, actively distribute them to a player you put on pause.

It's not often necessary to ban someone who is having a tough go. I've been there, on trips where nothing is happening and you just keep digging. Granted, I've never been so down that rabbit hole that I've taken funds needed for living, but I have lost my entire gaming budget for a trip. If you were watching me I was NOT having fun.

Today I know to take a pause, to just stop gambling for a while. I go for a walk or go back to the room and do some Yoga, I do anything but continue to pump money into those blasted video poker machines for a bit.

But, not all people do this, and alcohol is especially a retardant to doing so. I've been in casinos around the country who have let people continue to gamble despite the fact that they could barely put together a coherent sentence. Maybe pushing the pause button on them is a good idea?

There's a LOT more that goes into it, and a lot more that could be done, but arguing that liberalizing the gaming rules in States is going to lead to increased problems isn't necessarily true. The hard fact is, anyone who WANTS to gamble in the United States CAN gamble here. Either legally or illegally online or through a bookie or underground casino/game room. Those illegal options come with little to no security, player advocates or gaming commissions to make rules. They also come with no player protections or limits.

Tell me how that would be better?

We've seen that prohibition does not work, yet we continue to call for more prohibition on things we think might be risky with which we disagree.

Let's do better on this than let the media paint a false picture of what's really going on.

Las Vegas Downtown Casinos: The Ones I do not Like. (And One that I like, but dislike as well)

On Saturday I made a list of the Downtown casinos that I like. For this list I'm going to offer up the ones that I don't like, and tell you why I do not like them. Again, we all have different criteria for grading casinos/hotels etc. so my list will likely be much, much different than yours.

Nothing in this post is meant to suggest that the casinos below are "bad" in any way, it's just that I've either had sub-par experiences in them, find them lacking for my tastes in one manner or another or that I think they're underperforming.

With that said, let's get to it.

1. Binion's Gambling Hall 

Everything about Binion's today makes me sad. From the general state of the property to walking in the casino at certain times only to find no active craps tables (something that would have Benny Binion rolling in his grave) to the large swaths of the casino floor that are all but bare, or poorly setup, to the fact that the poker room is gone. The only good thing about Binion's currently is the Whiskey Liquor Up and even that's underwhelming in terms of food, service and video poker odds.  The owners, the same folks who own on of my favorites 4Queens fwiw, really need to take a hard look at what's happening here because right now it's just depressingly sad.

2. The Plaza

To say that my March stay at the Plaza was a disappointment would be an understatement. I have never been as underwhelmed by a hyped property as I was there. If you want to see many of the problems that I had you can see my YouTube video here. (apologies for Mrs. TPMs profanity at the Pizza Joint, she was having a good time). from a dirty, decrepit room that had gouge marks on the bathroom door which made it look like someone was trying to break the door down with a screwdriver, to no refrigerator to just a general dirtiness the room was a mess. The service and attitude of the staff were worse. Never have I stayed at a place that just did not seem to want my gambling dollar as much as here. The staff was rude, unhelpful, and left us stranded for hours with no options for checking our bags as we awaited our car transfer so we were forced to lug them around with us. I have never been treated as poorly by a hotel/casino and will not be back.  Since I don't have a large YouTube following I doubt they care. Truth is, if you don't have a large YouTube following they probably won't care either.

3. Gold Spike 

OK, granted, this is not a casino, but it is a place with some of the longest lines downtown and I absolutely despise waiting in line. Also, it's much overrated considering what it is. I've only visited there a couple of times and walked away very underwhelmed. Granted, I'm not their target demographic but it's just not my cup of tea.

4. Fremont Casino

My main problem with the Fremont is that they seem to have given up. The place is just bland and that's a shame because it could be so much more. Maybe my opinion of it will change after they finish their planned room renovations, combining all rooms in a 2 for 1 deal to increase the space and make them all suites. That said, they really need to freshen up the gaming area and my standing problem with Boyd is that they have totally devalued their B Connected loyalty program in a manner that flips the bird to video poker players.

5. Downtown Grand

I really do want to like the Downtown Grand. The casino is smallish, but has potential, and their Center Bar progressives on DDB can be among the best in town. Their problem is that they cannot decide what they want to be. Management there changes direction more times than a glider in a hurricane, from good gambling odds to bad gambling odds and nothing they do seems to be catching on. Their casino has all of the energy of a funeral parlor and their staff has clearly thrown in the towel. I hear the hotel is doing well but staying and playing there is depressing.

The one that I both Like and Dislike:

El Cortez

I've stayed at the El Cortez twice, and both times really enjoyed my stay. The Cabana Suites across the street (although still part of the hotel) are quirky and wonderful and, given the presence of 24 hour security at the door, are probably the safest rooms downtown. The staff there is welcoming, friendly and go out of their way (at times) to really make you feel appreciated. The one exception to this are some of the bartenders who are downright surly or dismissive. That's a problem they need to address. My biggest problem with the El Cortez is that I never really feel comfortable in their casino. It's not a safe environment at times and that's really off-putting. They have a great player's club and good comps and promotions, and fairly decent odds on all games, but I've seen more fights in that casino than I've seen anywhere else and security always seems slow to respond. It's a shame because the place has a crap ton of history and Siegel's is an underrated gem of a restaurant.

Las Vegas Downtown Casinos: The Ones that I Like

Lately, I've been busy whiling away my free hours slamming the Las Vegas Strip for turning itself into a price-gouging, violence ridden, wasteland of a place for tourists looking to have a good time. And, while I admit that I'm akin to King Canute standing on the beach trying to stop the tide, I still AM a fan of Las Vegas and really do enjoy going there.

With that in mind I thought that I'd discuss today a part of Las Vegas that I am fan of, and also provide a listing of where I like to go and why I like to go there. This is not a list of the "best" casinos downtown. For one, coming up with a list is silly, there are criteria that I have for a good casino that you might discount, and really those types of things are only designed to drive page clicks and online outrage.

Instead, these are the places that I like to visit, and stay at, when I'm staying Downtown......

1. The D Casino

I like pretty much everything about this place. Which does not mean that it does not have it's faults. For one, it's too loud at times, and not the best place to wake up in the morning and nurse a hangover. For two, you have to be very careful which video poker game you choose to play and where you play it. The Long Bar, which is still my favorite bar in Las Vegas, has one of the worst Bonus Poker pay tables downtown. However the upstairs Vue Bar, has one of the best. The rooms are smallish but they are well maintained and actually fairly well insulated from outdoor noise. I've never had a poor customer service experience at this place and the food options are top notch. For budget dinging I highly recommend All-American Coneys and Andiamo's is still one of the best steakhouses in town period.

2. 4Queens

This old lady is showing a little age on it's rooms, and it does suffer from the problem that most downtown hotels suffer in that it's rooms are tiny compared to the Strip. But I've always found the beds to be comfortable, the rooms to be clean and the value here to be pretty damn good. Their two VP bars (Mike's and King's Bar) are among the best for VP play and people watching, both the DDB progressives and the Jack's or Better Suited progressive games can be very profitable. The bartenders are among the nicest and best and while they're not "flair" like you find at the Stephen's brother's casinos they do pour a strong drink and keep your cup full. While I really do miss Wana Taco, Magnolia's is a great spot for breakfast and Hugo's Cellar is an underrated throwback dining gem. Chicago Brewing company is an outstanding option for craft beer and bar food. I've never had a bad experience here, even while losing at gambling.

3. Golden Gate

One of the oldest hotels in Vegas and a casino that's really been modernized and made fun by the Stephen's brothers.  The VP bar odds are not great but the vibe is usually pretty solid and if you don't mind a loud casino (a thing for Stephen's casinos) then the place is pretty all around cool. The rooms are tiny, but the "Original 10" experience is something you should try once, and seeing the dividing line on the hallway wall where the original building stops and the new one begins (this is on the 2nd floor) is really cool. No real options for food here, but you can avail yourself of the Circa options (your food credit is good there) right across the street. To me, staying at Golden Gate and having the Circa amenities available to you is the power play on Fremont Street.

4. Golden Nugget

For me, the Golden Nugget is about three things: Some of the best rooms on Fremont (excluding Circa), a great pool, and some very solid dining options. Unfortunately the casino is pretty much a no-gambling zone in Tillman Ferttita's "It's all about the ROI" world but the rest of the resort is above average. Grotto for lunch is an underrated option and the Chart House has excellent seafood. Vic & Anthony's is a solid although not spectacular steak house but it will not disappoint. The rooms however are great, especially if you can grab a Rush Tower room. If you do gamble there the good news is that some of your comps, will also transfer to Landry's restaurants off property. (Subject to certain restrictions). All and all a solid place to stay.

5. Circa

I could be obtuse, and a contrarian, and leave this off of the list, but that would mean that I'm also a liar because I really do like this place. Let's start off with the party pieces, the Sports Book and Stadium Swim. They are spectacular and are the best sports book and pool in the City, and I'm including the Strip. The food options are many and all are good. Some even great. The Legacy Club is a sunset destination. The rooms are new and shiny and well thought out, they have supplanted the Golden Nugget as the best rooms downtown. And while I LOVE the Mega Bar, and the Overlook Bar let's get to the warts.  This place is EXPENSIVE with a capital EXPENSIVE. Food prices are high, the gambling odds are not good, and while the bartenders are great and nice the prices for drinks are out of this world high, think Las Vegas strip levels. The old saying is that you never want to own the nicest house in a poor neighborhood. My long-term worry is that Circa is just that and is going to struggle.

Honorable Mention:

The California

Post renovation the casino here is a very nice place to be. I've never stayed at the Hotel because, as a Video Poker Play Boyd does not value my business, but the Hawaiian food here is solid.

Main Street Station

Currently closed, there are several video poker players/craft beer fans, including myself, that are waiting semi-patiently for the return of the Boar's Head bar and 777 Brewery.

The Las Vegas Strip: Casinos that I like

Lately I've been pretty negative regarding the Las Vegas Strip. I've publically sworn off any Caesars properties and I've made my dislike of MGM properties well known for a while now. That said, there are resorts on the Strip that I really do enjoy visiting and to try and turn around this negativity (because blogging is FUN dammit) I thought I'd list out the Strip casinos that I like and mention why I like them.

1. The Cosmopolitan

Even as a card carrying old guy, I find the Cosmo to be good fun. Yes I'm tragically unhip and probably 20-25 years older than their target demographic but I just really find the Cosmo to be an overall fun place. Like many, I enjoy the Chandelier Bar but my go to is the Sports Book bar where Atilla and Heather are two of the nicest bartenders around. Block 16 is great eats, as is the Pizza shop, and while pricey, the tacos at China y Pablano are go-to food for Mrs. TPM. the restaurant choices there are without equal, and the rooms are spectacular.  Easily my favorite casino resort on the Strip and it's not close. Yes, they are pricey, and the table games are horrid, but for VP they're a notch above Caesars/MGM and that's about the best you can hope for these days (sadly)

2. Treasure Island

Two things I like about TI: Their bartop video poker and their pool. One thing I dislike, their relatively poor dining choices.  Although the seafood place is pretty good outside of that things could be much better. They have a very nice casino with many options for slot players, and fair video poker pay tables. Their table games are Strip normal (which means they suck) but their rooms are nice, can frequently be found at decent prices and their cabana rental rates are reasonable for the Strip. Customer service there is friendly, and the cabana attendants that served us were very personable, prompt and pleasant. All in all I really like TI and it's a go to for me when visiting the Strip.

3. Wynn and Encore

Steve Wynn had his personal demons and, while his legal issues are still in litigation, there's no denying that he has left a lasting legacy on the Las Vegas Strip. "WynnCore" was the beginning of the de-theming movement on the Strip (for better or for worse) and is (honestly) the epitome of customer service. You're going to pay at Wynn properties but you are not going to be disappointed. two of the most luxurious properties on the Strip with great food options, wonderful lounges and bars, and two of the prettiest gaming areas around, there's not a lot to dislike about either place outside of them costing you your first born.

4. Venetian and Palazzo

The main gripe you from people regarding these sister properties is that they are (were) owned by Sheldon Adelson. This is yet another case where people are unable to separate their politics from their enjoyment of life and that's too bad. I, for one, enjoyed nothing more than getting the chance to win Sheldon's money and the two resorts themselves are beautiful. Much like WynnCore, the service is outstanding, the decor is beautiful and the Venetian Shoppes are one of the best places in Las Vegas to spend some time not gambling. The rooms are all suites and are fantastic. Now that Sands has bailed on Vegas there's really no reason to not check them out. Again like WynnCore, you're going to pay, and their pay tables are atrocious. They also win the booby prize for introducing into the world the scourge that is 000 Roulette but other than that they're a great place to visit.

5. Aria

I know, I know, I spend ages cracking on MGM and then list one of their resorts as a casino that I like on the Strip.  Here's the thing: I like staying and dining there, not so much gambling there. the rooms are spectacular as are the food choices. The paella at Julian Serrano's Tapas is world class. When I do play there it's typically at the tiny Gem Bar, where if you can find Manny there might not be a better bartender on the Strip in terms of friendliness. The pool is incredible, albeit pricey, and the pool staff is warm and nice. Yes, it's MGM so the fees are going to be legion and you will be nickel and dimed almost to death, and there are rough edges around customer service that they need to work out (especially at he front desk, which is awful) but overall the casino is beautiful, the front desk area is a spectacle, and the positives here do outweigh the negatives in my opinion.

Non gambling honorable mention.

Vdara

The Vdara is certainly not for everyone. They have no casino but they do have all suites, the City Corner Suite is amazing, and they really don't have any dining options. But, you're close to Aria and Cosmo so eating well is just a short walk away. The pool area, especially if you get a Cabana, is spectacular although not a party pool if that is what you are looking for. The Lobby Bar is a beautiful place to pay a lot for a cocktail.

Incomplete:

Resorts World

I have not yet visited this property so it's not going to be on any list. Of course, it's on YouTube everywhere but the Vlogs so far have only mainly focused on the pool and sheer size of the place. At this point it could go on my "likes" or "dislikes" place I just don't know.

Gambling lies: "I'm a lifetime winner!"

I just completed a losing gambling trip. The video poker was not nice (I could not draw flies all weekend) and my timing was off on the slots. While this trip was especially bad in that nothing was hitting, it's not all that unusual for me to wind up a trip down a little.

In fact, that's my goal for every trip, just lose a little while gambling.

There are many out there who state that they are lifetime winners, especially on slots. If you understand slots that's a joke, because there is no strategy that you can play and no system you can put in place to make you a winner over time. Yes, there are a few people who have hit huge jackpots and are on the plus side of the ledger when it comes to slot play. People who hit MegaBucks, certain wide-area progressives and large jackpots on certain machines are probably up over the course of their lifetimes.

Everyone else?

No way.

In fact, there are some prominent Social Media personalities who claim to have a "slot-system" and claim to be "experts" on slot-play because of this and they claim that they are lifetime net positive.

I call bullshit.

Sports betting is the biggest home of liars though. VERY FEW sports bettors turn a profit on their actual bets. There are far more people who claim a profit but actually have losing records and make money off of suckers buying their losing picks from them. The most famous of these touts is Vegas Dave, but there are many, many more just like them. Of the few sports bettors that actually win for a living, you're very unlikely to see them touting picks. I can think of one or two, but that's it. A LOT of them are active on Twitter, but they're usually there to troll touts and maybe provide some basic gambling advice. Not sell picks.

Another lie that people tell regarding gambling is the existence of a winning system. Casinos love system bettors because they actually think they can win. While the best system might help you reduce the house edge, it will not tip it to your favor. The biggest example of this is strategy in blackjack. If you still think that strategy can help shift the house-edge to your favor ask yourself this: If strategy can become a winner why do casinos allow strategy cards at tables and, in many cases, sell them in their gift-shops? The answer? It won't.

A sub-group of blackjack players who might actually make money over time are card counters. If you want to judge their efficacy see just how quickly they get backed off and even eighty-sixed from a casino when playing their game. The fact is that casinos are not going to allow an advantage player to sit at their tables for too long. If the casino truly believes that you are gaining an advantage over them they are not going to let you play for long. This is especially true for blackjack card counters and advantage (or +EV) sports bettors at many books.

The lie of winning is only slightly less prevalent in poker than it is in blackjack. While I do know some winning poker players the majority of those out there claiming wins (and peddling a poker system) are nothing more than poker touts. They make their money selling you their "system" (which is usually just a rehashed model of something that they read in a poker book and repackaged as their own) rather than actually sitting at a table playing cards.

The final group of "winners" are the cheaters. While they may gain a win in the short-run the overwhelming probability in their lives is that the casino is going to catch them, and that they are going to jail for quite some time.

Remember that gambling is entertainment, and your bet is the price for that entertainment. The structure of the odds on all the games means that you are most probably going to lose in the long-run, but that in the short run anything can happen. The most important lesson to learn is that you are there to have fun.

So, do that.

Have fun, bet smart, win jackpots.

But if you don't, then don't chase your losses and get ready to have fun on your next try.

Health and Safety: Some COVID-19 Lessons I'm not Going to Unlearn

By the time you read this I will have been back from my casino trip to Tulsa for a couple of days. Hopefully, and the Good Lord willing, I will not have brought back any post-casino crud with me. I'm not too concerned about COVID-19 because I've got two doses of that sweet nectar of Moderna coursing through my veins (Sadly: I cannot shoot plasma bolts out of my hands, so on that front the rDNA drug was VERY disappointing).

But, and I realized this a few casino trips back, there are still a lot of fairly disgusting people in this world and, especially in a casino, you and they are sharing tactile surfaces. And let's not even get into just how filthy money and casino chips are.....

Travelling.

Once they allow us to de-mask on an airplane I probably will. However, if I'm feeling a little under the weather I'll probably put a mask on myself while on the plane. This is something many Asian cultures did prior to the pandemic and it's not a horrid idea.

I'll also continue to wipe the headrest, armrests, tray table and seat belt handles down with a sanitizing wipe. I did that to a limited degree prior to the pandemic after reading several news stories and studies that outlined exactly what is living in your airport seat, especially on the tray table.

Given the reality of full flights, social distancing can be hard on a plane. And that's fine, but where I can I'll do what I can (angry fat-guy face on non-full Southwest flights, booking aisle and window on less than full flights on other airlines, to try and secure that blesses empty middle seat.

Hotel

I'm guessing Mrs. TPM will continue to spray down the toilet, pillows, bed and other high-contact surfaces in the future. Especially the toilets. Look, it's been a while since I've stayed in a room that has obviously just not been serviced by housekeeping, and when that happens I usually request a new room, but housekeepers are human and, as such, make mistakes or omissions from time to time. Better safe than sorry.

I'll also continue to shoot the inside of my vehicle with antiseptic spray before getting in should I valet. Just remember to tip your attendant and let them know that it's nothing personal.

Casino

One thing that we started doing, and plan to continue doing, is wiping down VP and slot machines with a sanitizing wipe before starting to play. At first, when surface contact was a concern, we did this for COVID-19. I decided to keep this around after noticing, in my heightened state of awareness, how many men used the restroom and did not wash their hands afterwards, to keep this practice going. Mrs. TPM carries a small pack of wipes in her purse, she pulls one out and I wipe the machine down prior to touching anything else. This will continue.

We're also going to keep the practice of using hand sanitizer after handling money. If you did not know, money is NASTY, carrying all types of bacteria and viruses that are highly transmittable. My hope is that the casinos continue the practice of having hand sanitizer stations scattered throughout the casino but, if they don't (and given their cheapness they probably won't) we'll be ready with travel bottles for easy cleanup.

I don't want to leave the impression that I'm going to live my life in a bubble. On the contrary, I'm not. Even during this pandemic Mrs. TPM and I got together, laid out our sanitation plan and stuck to it so that we could keep visiting casinos. We traveled 4 times in 2020 and have already had 4 trips in 2021 with 3 more to go.

It's just this: It's not me, it's you. Not "you" personally, I'm sure you have wonderful hygiene and wash your hands properly each and every time. But many people do not and, because of that, we're going to keep some things in our toolkit to ensure we're at less risk of catching the NEXT bad bug that makes it's debut.

Unless said bug is transmitted through Vodka and Whiskey consumption......then we're toast.

Social Media: Changing Things up a bit.

One lesson that I've learned over the past couple of years is that I've got a great face for blogging.

After two plus years of (admittedly lazily) putting up video content my You Tube channel has exactly 38 followers.

If you're not familiar with YouTube stuff, that sucks. Which means, by extension, I suck at the vlogging thing and there's very little about what Mrs. TPM and I do that really makes people want to tune in, subscribe, like etc. Of course, it probably does not help that I'm a) Typically too lazy/drunk to remember to record shit, and b) typically too disinterested/lazy to actually edit videos.

It's not y'all, it's me.

With that in mind I'm making some changes. For one, as you've seen lately, I'm firing the blog back up. I'm more comfortable writing here than I am talking over there and I have more freedom here to write about what I want. Unlike my past trends, I'm not shutting down my YouTube channel, but there will be no more trip reports etc. There might be some room tours, and possibly come sports season a sports-betting vlog or three, but no more trip reports.

For future Trip Reports I'm going back to The Vegas Fanatics Board where I post under the user name "Nick Pappageorgio".  You don't have to be a member to view the reports, and I'll link to them on this blog, but you do have to create a "free" account to post on that board. It's ran by a couple of really good people who I support with $25 annually to help them defray costs, and also get an ad-free experience.

I'll also keep posting under @CoryWCrow (The PublicMoney) on Twitter. And yes, that is my real name. I don't put anything on that machine that I do not stand behind, nor am ashamed of, nor am I worried about my work finding something on there that might get me in trouble/suspended/fired.  Same as here.

When I started the YouTube channel I thought it would be a laugh. What I did not realize is that, to be perfectly blunt, Mrs. TPM and I are actually pretty boring, and we're not big fans of recording every damn thing that we do. That makes for a piss-poor Vlog if you ask me.

I'll be starting some discussions on there about the upcoming football season soon however, once I get my numbers tied down and make my initial plays. I'm looking forward to this change because I really miss writing here on a consistent basis, and I really miss writing about sports, sports betting, gambling, casinos etc. I'll probably throw in some travel related stuff as well, provided we're actually allowed to keep traveling.

What you're not going to see much of any more is a ton of politics. I was blogging about them for a while there but mostly because what we were seeing in the media and from politicians was a ton of bollocks. That doesn't mean that I won't talk about politics, especially as it relates to sports, sports betting or travel, but it does mean that I'm not going to revert to being a political blogger.

As you're reading this, I will be on the last day of a quick casino trip to Tulsa. I'm hoping you decide to check into Vegas Fanatics and my Twitter account to see how it all went.

Good Luck, best smart, win jackpots.

Video Poker: The Deal, The Hold, The Draw, The Miss and so on.

Video Poker is the worst game in the world, and I love it so.

About six years back I made the transition from playing primarily live poker to the video version. I'm not sure when I made the decision to do so but there was a point where I got tired of sitting at a 4-8 limit game, trying to snag the bad beat jackpot to be perfectly honest, and having some knob sit down at the table wearing a hoodie and shades saying "I'm getting prepped for the WSOP."

Uh huh.

There was one game, at a casino that shall remain nameless, where I was playing against a local at dark-thirty in the morning and he caught a 3-outer on the river to win a modest pot. He then started to curse me, calling me a "f-ing donkey" and other things that bad poker players like to say when they get lucky (to try and put the other person on tilt) and I just replied "You're a G-damn poker god sir".

Which earned me a profanity warning from the chair.

Gobsmacked by this I disputed it, which got the floor manager called over. I stated my case and he then told me I could either behave or take my business elsewhere. I took my business elsewhere and never darkened the door of that particular poker room again.

But I kept playing. For one, that was the game that I knew best and two, I really wasn't in the mood to go back to the cat and mouse game that is advantage blackjack.

Then I found video poker.

At first, it was the most frustrating thing in the world. I knew that strategy existed, and I was in the process of learning it, but I was still making a TON of mistakes and premium hands were few and far between. I had seen people who never played video poker before sit down next to me and hit a Royal Flush not even knowing what they were doing.  As for me? I thought I was never going to hit one. After playing live poker since I was 16 (at home games at first, then at casinos when I turned 21) and through all of the years, and five years of pretty much being a video poker junkie, I finally got my first.one. It happened on June 10, 2017. I held KQJ of hearts and drew the A-10. It was a progressive Royal to boot. Which was fairly high ($1638.92) and was one heck of a way to finish off the last night of a trip.

Since that date I've had 19 more. My lifetime count is 20.

Why the increase?

Of course, luck is one big reason but improved strategy helped a LOT as well. The fact is I more consistently put myself in a better position to draw a royal now than I did for the first few years playing. In fact, since 2017 I've only gone one year without hitting a royal, the COVID impacted trash-fire that was 2020.  In 2021 (over four gambling trips) I've had 7 royals, five alone in March and April at Green Valley Ranch in Las Vegas.

Here's the thing, and (belatedly) the point of this blog: Despite the above the reality of playing video poker is much the same as it was in the early days. Yes, I'm better at the game now and have a better understanding of it. I can adjust strategy depending on the pay-table and I understand the concept and impact of penalty cards. (although, to be honest, those are still where the majority of my strategy mistakes lie)

When you sit down to a video poker machine the reality is that you are most likely in for a session of woe and heartbreak. That dealt 4-to-a-royal will not convert, you're going to miss on many dealt trips. I once missed on 78 dealt trips in a row.

The point is, things happen, bad runs happen and you're going to have losing sessions far more often then you have winning ones. The game will make you shake your head when walking away thinking "what just happened there?"

One additional lesson that I've learned over the years is to have fun. Video Poker is entertainment, it's not a grind. Yes, you can settle in and grind for points from time to time (especially if you're close to moving to the next tier on the loyalty card) but that doesn't mean that you've got to let it ruin your mood.

If you're on a machine where every hand is a miss and the money is falling away faster than Conor McGregor's career and reputation, take yourself a little break and go for a walk. Don't sit there and stew over it.

Unlike BlackJack (Lose 4 and hit the door) there's no real hard and fast rule for when to get up from a VP machine. But I have found this: If I sit down and fire two "bullets" ($100 on either a $1 single line or $0.25 multi-play currently, a while back it was $40 for $0.25 single-line) and hit nothing of note it's time to take a break. Stand up, walk around and regroup before firing again. Don't empty your clip all at once. The more you go Deal, Hold, Draw, Miss, the more frustrated you're going to get and the more strategy errors you'll find yourself making.

Clear head, clear heart, clear mind.

Have fun, hit Royals, smile more.

Good luck.