It's that time again, time to try and find a nugget of entertainment out of what looks, on paper, to be a very uninspiring slate of Conference Championship games. Granted, if you're into the College Football Playoff (this blog is not) then there are a couple of key sub-plots brewing beneath the actual games on the field....
Will Georgia beat Alabama and, if so, does the latter get in?
IF 'Bama holds serve and OU and Ohio State both win, who gets the nod?
What IF there's chaos? (OU losing, Ohio State losing (*snort*), Clemson losing (*snicker*)
The point is most of the drama in these games is going to take place off the field, in a dank hotel conference room in Dallas. If it's possible, the Lords of College football have found an even WORSE way to crown a champion than the old B(C)S system. Instead of two teams being selected it's now four, and those four benefit from wearing a certain helmet. This happens every year and it will happen until one of two things happen:
1. The expand the CFP to eight teams, thus making college football "NFL Lite" and ruining the diversity in the game once and for all.
2. Everyone comes to their senses and says "Ah screw it" and the old bowl system is restored.
Since the chances of #2 ever happening is slim to none (and slim just left town) we're stuck with what we're stuck with so lets make the best of it on this last weekend.
To the Games....
Marathon MAC Football Championship Game
Northern Illinois @ Buffalo (-3.5) [50.5]
One of the four championship games where the two opponents have not faced each other earlier in the season. Northern Illinois won their division, but backed into the win when Ohio and Western Michigan threw up all over themselves. They've lost their last two and I cannot see them holding on for more than a half against a Buffalo team that's probably got the best quarterback in the State of New York. (College OR Pro)
Prediction: NIU 13 Buffalo 31
Pick: Buffalo to cover -3.5 & the UNDER
PAC-12 Football Championship Game Presented by 76.
Utah @ Washington (-5.5) [44.5]
At the beginning of the season pretty much everyone (except me) was picking Washington to be here, but almost no one (including me) thought Utah would be the opponent. Washington has suddenly remembered that Myles Gaskin is their running back, and while Utah's defense is stout, Washington's athleticism is miles ahead of what the Utes have to offer. Utah has averaged 31.7 points per game this season but, when they played Washington previously, they could only score 7. I expect a repeat of the prior game, with just a little bit more scoring.
Prediction: Utah 13 Washington 28
Pick: Washington to cover -5.5 No pick on the line. 44.5 feels solid.
SunBelt Conference Football Championship Game
Louisiana @ Appalachian State (-16.5) [58]
Back on October 27th there was little sign that the Rajin' Cajuns 47-43 win at home was going to be anything other than a nice win for the program over a good team, but a 3-game conference win streak to end the season made that the tie-breaker that got them a date at App State. Appalachian State is the class of this conference, but they only beat Louisiana 27-17 at home the last time they played (10/20). I think Louisiana is a better team right now, but I think App State is better as well. I do think this could wind up being much closer than the spread suggests.
Prediction: Louisiana 21 App State 31
Pick: Louisiana to cover +16.5 and UNDER 58
BIG XII Championship
UT-Austin @ Oklahoma (-8) [78]
The last time these two tussled, (10/6) at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas, the result was a 48-45 "instant classic" game that left Sooner hearts broken and the Longhorns ecstatic. It also left the Big XII perturbed because 'Horns down" became a thing and now they've gone and done what the Big XII always does and made a stupid decision by putting the decision as to whether or not it's a personal foul in the hands of Big XII referees. What could possibly go wrong. On the field it's just so hard to have any faith in the Sooner defense, yet their offense is good enough to beat anyone. I think we're on pace for yet another track-meet here and I don't see any way you can take either Oklahoma OR the under given the sorry state of their defense.
Prediction: UT-Austin 52 Oklahoma 55
Pick: UT-Austin to cover -8 and OVER.
Globe-Life C-USA Football Championship
Alabama-Birmingham @ Middle Tennessee State (-1) [46]
The 2018 Blazers are one of the best stories this year in college football. All but forced to abandon the sport by their parent university in Tuscaloosa, UAB refused to die, their football coach refused to leave, and in their second year back from the dead they're in the conference championship. Unfortunately, for them, they place a Middle Tennessee State team that they lost to just last weekend by a score of 27-3. It's a cute, feel-good story and I'm very happy for them, but if they get close to the -1 line I'll be shocked.
Prediction: UAB 13 Middle Tennessee State 31
Pick: Middle Tennessee State to COVER -1
American Athletic Conference Football Championship Game
Memphis @ UCF (-3) [64]
These two teams faced each other on October 13th with UCF coming from way behind to squeak out a 31-30 win in Memphis. Since then Memphis has been up and down, giving up a lot of points but scoring quite a few themselves. They clinched their berth here with a 52-31 domination of Houston at home, where they play much better. UCF has won 24 straight games dating back to last year and is looking for their second perfect season in a row. They have yet to score less than 30 points per game this season, but as we all saw last week their star QB McKenzie Milton had his leg twisted backwards in a horrific injury and is done for the year (if not forever) calling signals. Still, the Bounce House is a tough place for visitors to play, and UCF did OK on offense after the Milton disaster. I'm rooting for them but I'm not going anywhere near the -3.
Prediction: Memphis 35 UCF 38
Pick: A very tepid over 64 (but I probably won't touch it)
Southeastern Conference Championship Football Game
Alabama (-13.5) @ Georgia [63.5]
It's the "game of the year" redeux. The same as last year only different, as Alabama has an offense that's decidedly NOT one-handed as it was in years past and their defense is not up to it's usual snuff. Or are they. Yes, they gave up 31 points to Arkansas but in every other game they've looked their usual selves. Maybe their WORST game was really their worst half, against Citadel, during SEC Buy Week right before Auburn. Outside of the loss to LSU, Georgia has been consistently good, if not great. That said I expect a down and dirty brawl with these two, just like we had in last year's SEC Championship Game. In my heart, because it would do the most long-term damage to the CFP, I'd like to see Georgia win. In my head, I know, this Bama team is just too damn good.
Prediction: Alabama 42 Georgia 14
Pick: Alabama to cover -13.5 and UNDER 63.5
Mountain West Football Championship Game
Fresno State @ Boise State (-2.5) 52.5
The rematch of the two best teams in the Mountain West is predicted to be a repeat of their last meeting, a 24-17 Boise State win on 11/19 on the Smurf Turf. This game is hugely important for two reasons. First, the winner is the conference champion and second, should UCF lose, the winner most probably gets the NY6 Bowl slot reserved for the highest ranking Group of 5 conference champion. On a neutral field I would like Fresno better, but this is Boise, on the Blue turf, with weather forecast mentioning rain mixed with snow and freezing temperatures.
Prediction: Fresno State 10 Boise State 24
Pick: Boise State to COVER -2.5 and UNDER 52.5
Atlantic Coast Conference Football Championship Game.
Clemson (-27.5) @ Pitt [53]
Clemson has done everything right this year. Once they made the QB switch to Lawrence their offense has been in high gear and their defense is one of the nastiest in the country. Pitt has been gritty, tough, and is coming off of a 24-3 shellacking at the hands of the Miami Hurricane. IF Pitt were to wear their 80's era uniforms I might give them a chance....... I'm kidding. This one is going to get ugly early and will stay that way. The most exciting part of the game might be the Dr. Pepper halftime scholarship toss (unless you're Sam Ponder that is)
Prediction: Clemson 58 Pitt 10
Pick: Clemson to COVER -27.5 and OVER 53
B1G Championship Game Presented by Discover
Northwestern @ Ohio State (-14) [61]
Full disclosure: I'm a Michigan fan, and after what I witnessed last weekend I'm not even sure if I'm going to pay much attention to this game. But it's going to be a blowout anyway, because Ohio State suddenly decided to wake up against Michigan and they're bigger, faster, stronger and better coached than the Wildcats. MAYBE Northwestern can keep it close for a half, but Ohio State has incentive to put it on Northwestern because of the OU/CFP situation. Drink heavy Northwestern fans, this one's gonna hurt.
Prediction: Northwestern 10 Ohio State 70
Pick: Ohio State to COVER -14 and OVER 61
The Make-Up games:
Believe it or not, not every game that's going to be played on Saturday has a title at stake. But there are some meaningful games here from a "who gets a ton of extra practices related to a bowl" perspective.
Eastern Carolina @ NC State (-23) [60.5]
There's really nothing at stake here except that both teams lost a game to the hurricane so they scheduled each other here. NC State is 8-3 and ECU is 3-8 and just fired their head coach. It's going to be ugly, and nigh unwatchable. ECU should get a good pay day however, and they don't have to travel too far.
Prediction: ECU 3 NC State 45
No pick.
Akron @ South Carolina (-30) 56.5
Again, nothing much at stake here, Akron is 4-7 and SC is 6-5. Sure a loss would stink SC's pride, but they're going to push for 7-5 which won't even help them in the SEC standings since the team right in front of them is 9-3. Another unwatchable game unless something bizarre happens. SC lost ECU as game due to the hurricane and they're busy with NC State, so Akron stepped in.
Prediction: Akron 10 SC 23
Pick: UNDER 56.5
Marshall @ Virginia Tech (-3.5) 51
OK, now we're getting somewhere. Virginia Tech is 5-6 and only scheduled this game because they need the win to move to 6-6 and keep their longest NCAA Recognized* bowl streak alive at 26. But they NEED THIS WIN against a VERY GOOD Marshall team that's 8-3 with losses to NC State, Middle Tennessee State and Southern Miss. Virginia Tech has struggled this year and will need a strong effort to keep their bowl hopes alive.
Prediction: Marshall 28 Va Tech 21
Pick: Marshall to COVER -3.5
Stanford (-3) @ California [47]
This is another make-up game that's pretty much only being played because there are conference ranking at stake. Stanford is 5-3, Cal is 4-4, Oregon sits between them both at 5-4. Should Cal pull the upset that might make the Pac-12 bowl selection process interesting, but both of these teams are going to a bowl regardless.
Prediction: Stanford 27 Cal 14
No Pick
After this weekend, and prior to the Final CFP rankings, I'll release my first top 10 of the season.
Enjoy this last (partial) weekend of college football. After this we take a couple of weeks off before the bowl games start.
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