Part, The First
Part, The Second
Part, The Third
Part, The Fourth
Part, The Fifth
Part, The Second
Part, The Third
Part, The Fourth
Part, The Fifth
Bowl season is always a little bit fun, and a little bit sad. Fun because you get bowls that are clearly drunk on egg-nog like the Cheez-It bowl, and then you have games like the New Era Pinstripe Bowl that are clearly hungover from the night before.
But it's sad because you realize that it's all coming to an end, that New Year's weekend is the last real time you're going to be able to just lay back in your recliner and watch College Football all day.
So yeah, looking at these last groups of games, it's done with just a tinge of sadness.
Military Bowl Presented by Northrop Grumman
Cincinnati vs Virginia Tech (-5.5) [53.5] ML: CU +190 VT -220
I'm not sure there's ever been a hollower 10-win team in college football than this year's Cincinnati Bearkats. They started off 6-0, before finishing 4-2 and losing against the two best teams on their schedule. (Temple and UCF). That said, I think Cincy is just a little bit underrated going into this game. They have a prolific running game and talented WR's, the question is whether or not their QB can get them the ball. Desmond Ridder doesn't throw a lot of INTs but he's also not the most accurate QB of all time.
Virginia Tech's journey to their NCAA (Recognized) record 26th straight bowl appearance has been well documented. They needed to win over rival Virginia, and then win a make-up game against Marshall just to qualify. They started off strong, but along the way suffered a 4-game losing streak, an inexplicable loss to Old Dominion, before finishing off a disappointing season with back-to-back wins and bowl qualification. This Hokies defense has been a departure for them, ranking near the bottom in all areas. I wouldn't count out Bud Foster though. The offense will need to find an identity, something which they lacked all year.
To say that this is a HUGE bowl game for the pride of the American Athletic Conference goes without saying. Houston's humiliation at the hands of Army and Temple's drubbing by Duke have given the American a black eye. They could desperately use a win, I think the Bearkats might be the team to give it to them.
Pick: Cincinnati to WIN on the ML
Prediction: Cincinnati 27 Virginia Tech 10
Hyundai Sun Bowl
Stanford (-5) vs Pittsburgh [52] ML: Stan -210 Pitt +175
Ah the Sun Bowl. One of the few remaining, classic bowls that refuses to change it's ways. And we're better off for it. The Sun Bowl is on CBS, it is the only bowl game on CBS. As such, it will get their "top" announcing team. It does things it's own way and it will be glorious because.....it is the Sun Bowl. If nothing else you should watch this bowl every year because it is NOT the CFPI and it's NOT owned and ran by ESPN.
Stanford won 8 games this year, which seems to be just about their level these days. Head Coach David Shaw is considered one of the best in football, and a future NFL head coach should he ever decide to make the jump. Stanford plays HARD on defense, is fairly simple, but effective on offense and has a kicker names Jet Toner. The big disappointment in this game is that RB Bryce Love, oft injured this year, has decided to wisely sit out this game to prepare for the NFL draft process. This leaves a void at the RB position for a team that desperately needs to run the ball to keep the offense on track.
Pitt is ending a weird 2018 campaign. They have been up and down all season, but they have 5 wins over bowl teams, although they lost North Carolina and to Miami. They did get the honor of getting pummeled by Clemson in the ACC Championship game. The biggest concern for Pitt in this game is that they are going to be missing two key cogs in their defensive backfield: Paris Ford and Bricen Garner are not making the trip. Pitt's offense has been 'off' all season, and they will need to make improvements in their anemic passing game to stand a chance.
Both the PAC-12 and ACC have shown weakness this year as conferences. The Pac-12 failing to make the CFPI and the ACC seemingly having no one willing to step up and claim the title of "second best football team other than Clemson" all season long. Still, I think Stanford is the better team here. We can only hope that the teams go "home on home" jerseys and that Pitt decides to wear the old blue and yellow kits instead of the navy and gold monstrosities they wear currently.
Pick: Stanford to COVER -5 and UNDER
Prediction: Stanford 24 Pitt 10
RedBox Bowl
Michigan State vs Oregon(-2.5) [48] ML: MSU +115 UO -135
Sparty is a slog. They slow the game down, they're not very good on offense they like to make the game ugly. To end the season they lost to Nebraska and barely beat Rutgers. They also beat Penn State and Purdue when the latter was actually playing decent football. The biggest problem for Michigan State this year has been a lack of a quality running game. They thought LJ Scott was the answer but he's been pedestrian. It also didn't help their offense that QB Brian Lewerke hurt his shoulder and was on the bench for most of the 2nd half of the season. He'll need to have a big game for Sparty to have a chance.
Oregon has had a very good week, not only did they secure a Letter of Intent from the consensus number one recruit in the country, but QB Justin Herbert announced he's coming back to play for the team next year. This is huge news for a team that arguably, should have won the Pac-12 this year but underachieved, playing inconsistently, especially on defense. Their offense should be fine, but there is a question as to how their defense will hold up against what is expected to be a punishing running blitz from Michigan State. Oregon is a microcosm of the Pac-12 this year, brilliant in certain areas, not so great in others.
I'm having trouble settling on a story for this game, since both teams want to do totally different things. However, what I ultimately decided was that Michigan State IS going to be able to wear down Oregon, make the game a slog, and ultimately walk out of here with an ugly-assed win.
Pick: Michigan State to WIN on the ML
Prediction: Michigan State 19 Oregon 17
Autozone Liberty Bowl
Missouri (-9) vs. Oklahoma State [74.5] ML: Mizzou -370 OSU +285
Missouri's story begins and ends with QB Drew Lock. They started off the season strong, winning 3 in a row before losing 3 and then going w/l/w/l/w to end the season and qualify for a bowl. Missouri is the SEC team you forget about, then they pull an upset against an SEC team you remember and you go, oh yeah, they are in the conference. This year that upset was over Florida, and it reminded everyone that, outside of the top few teams, the SEC is a fairly pedestrian conference whose middle class gets consistently overrated.
Oklahoma State had bigger expectations Nationally than they did for those who follow the program. They were basically breaking in a new, and young, offensive line, and replacing a lot of key players on both offense and defense. They did OK on offense but their pass defense is horrid, at best. One maddening thing about OSU is that they are, quite possibly, the least consistent team in all the land. They lost 4 out of their last 6 games, but their two wins were over Texas and West Virginia, plus, they barely lost to OU 48-47. Who can tell.
The only thing that I'm pretty sure of in this game is that points will be scored. Given the two defenses, and the qualify of both offenses, this could be the highest scoring bowl game of the year.
Pick: OVER 74.5
Prediction: Mizzou 52 OSU 48
San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl
Northwestern vs. Utah(-7) [57] ML: NW +240 UU: -300
Northwestern backed into the B1G championship game, and then played Ohio State tough for about a half before ultimately falling 45-24. The challenge here is that they have an offense that struggles to move the ball and score points, playing against a defense against which it's hard to move the ball and score points. Northwestern will be missing two standout players, Sr LB Nate Hall and Sr DT Jordan Thompson but their replacements have game experience so they should be OK.
Utah's questions on offense are many and varied as those faced by Northwestern. IF QB Tyrone Huntley can come back from a broken collarbone, suffered in November, that would be a huge shot in the arm for the Utes offense. On defense the Utes are still waiting to see if all-world pass-rusher Chase Hanson can play, but they still have a ton of talent on the defensive side of the ball to counter NW's rather anemic offense.
If anything on offense clicks in this game, it's likely to be the Ute's passing attack. Northwestern's pass defense is the weak link in an otherwise solid unit. I think they'll make just enough big plays in the passing game to win the game, but points are going to be at a premium here.
Pick: UNDER 57
Prediction: Utah 17 NW 3
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
NC State vs. Texas A&M (-7) [57] ML: NCS +240 aTm -300
The Wolfpack were a fave-rave pick of the college football cognescenti to take the mantle of "second best team in the ACC behind Clemson" before they lost inexplicably to Syracuse and Wake Forest in the 2nd half of the season. Ryan Finley is a good quarterback who has weapons to target on offense, but will be missing a key target in WR Kevin Harmon, who is sitting out to prepare for the NFL draft process. On defense they're going to be without NFL draft prospect and Sr LB Germaine Pratt, who was a prolific defensive playmaker for them all season.
Texas A&M will hope that QB Kellen Mond can continue to perform as he has all season against a defense where opportunity could present itself. Also promising for the Aggies is RB Williams, who could find some holes in which to run given Pratt's absence. The problem for the Aggies is motivation. They paid Jimbo Fisher a LOT of money to finish this season with the exact same record that Kevin Sumlin achieved last season, and only one signature win (the bonkers 74-72 7OT win over LSU) to show for it.
To me, these are two mid-level teams in their respective conferences that aspire to bigger things, but for whom actual results are few and far between. These teams are mirror images of one another, and I expect a close, tough game that is full of big hits and even some big plays on offense. In the end, I think a TD spread is too big for this game.
Pick: NC State to COVER -7
Prediction: NC State 24 aTm 27
One more slate of games to go, and then it's time to bid goodbye to College Football, and turn our focus toward College Basketball, NHL and horse racing.
Enjoy the games.
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