College Football: How I Quit Worrying and Learned to Love the Bowls (Part, The Seventh)

Prior stuff here:

Part, The First
Part, The Second
Part, The Third
Part, The Fourth
Part, The Fifth
Part, the Sixth

To be honest, I'm not sure why I'm treating these games separately in this blog because I'm viewing them as single games, and not as playoff semi-finals.  It's not that a playoff final won't be played, it's that I just don't care as the entire process has devolved into a political mess which excludes over half the college football landscape from participation.

What it's given us are two uninspiring bowl games, with two teams of two that are highly mismatched on paper.  The only salient question that the media seem to be asking is this: Would it be better with Georgia involved? (answer: NO)

So, the entire premise is a mess, a fatally flawed mess with little hope for salvaging it from itself and the only answers people have for the mess is making a bigger mess of it.  Blah.  Let's just look at the two games.


Good Year Cotton Bowl (Not played at the actual Cotton Bowl)

Notre Dame vs Clemson (-13) [56.5] ML: ND 360 Clem -470

Before you go pounding your chest about how the Irish are back, I want to remind you of this:  Their best win is against a Michigan team that got totally worked over by Ohio State.  QB Ian Brook didn't even play against Michigan, but he's likely to play here which won't mean all that much against the most talented team Notre Dame has played this year.

Clemson has the best defensive front 7 in the game, and that's probably true even with the drug-test-related suspension of Dexter Lawrence.  Christian Wilkins is still there, as are Austin Bryant and Cleland Ferrell, plus, the Tigers have depth at the position and the LB's are still going to wreck shop. And we haven't even mentioned the offense yet. QB Trevor Lawrence has been spectacular, is healthy, and should carve up the slow, plodding ND defense.

I expect this one to get ugly early and be all but over by halftime.  I'm not even having much of an issue giving up 12.5 points in a game I think Clemson could win by 30 if the Irish aren't careful.

Pick: Clemson to COVER -13

Prediction: ND 7 Clemson 38



Capitol One Orange Bowl

Oklahoma vs. Alabama (-14) [77.5] ML: OU 450 Bama -650

Heisman winner Kyler Murray is the real deal, an outstanding player whose future will play out on the baseball diamond but whose college career has been nothing short of spectacular.  But OU's defense is just as bad as Murray is good.  While I do think that OU's offense can accomplish some things against the vaunted Bama D, I also think that they will not be able to stop the Tide from crashing over them.

Bama is Bama.  Tua, by all accounts, is going to be mostly healthy, and while they also have some suspensions that could concern, including starting O-lineman Lester Brown, it's hard to see him and a couple of backups missing the game stalling what has been an offensive juggernaut for most of the season.

OU is going to score against Bama, of that I have no doubt. I'd feel better about my pick if I knew for certain exactly who would be in the game (Hollywood Brown for example).  But with Murray and Cee Dee Lamb going they should still be potent enough. Despite the gaudy lines, I think this is a tough game to handicap because there are so many unknowns.

Pick: OU to COVER +14 and UNDER 77.5

Prediction: Oklahoma 28 Alabama 35





Next up we'll look at the New Year's Eve games. No major bowls, but a lot of big-name teams coming off disappointing seasons who have a lot still to prove.

Enjoy the games.