After the first tranche of games we find ourselves 2 and 5. (And on the bad side of injury luck to start off this bowl season)
You can see parts 1 & 2 of this pick'em series here:
Part, The First
Part, The Second
In this third installment we start off with one of the more feel-good stories of the bowl season.....
Cheribundi Tart Cherry Boca Raton Bowl
University of Alabama-Birmingham (-2.5) vs. Northern Illinois [43] ML: UAB -140 UNI +120
If UAB is not the feel-good story of the year then they are close, and head coach Bill Clark rightly won every coach of the year award except the one broadcast on ESPN, thus proving that the ESPN COTY trophy should be demolished, buried in the ground and said ground salted. Two years after being all but forced out of existence by Alabama-Tuscaloosa boosters who feel, insanely, that UAB football having a program somehow hurts the Tide the Blazers came back and, against all odds, won the Conference USA title. They accomplished this by running through the C-USA schedule, only tripping up against Charlotte, and Middle Tennessee State, the latter a loss they avenged in the C-USA Championship.
Northern Illinois however was just lucky to be in the MAC Championship. They started off the season 1-3, with losses to Iowa, Utah and Florida State, only winning against lowly Central Michigan. Then they ran roughshod over the middle part of their schedule before losing their last two conference games, only making the championship game because neither Ohio or Western Michigan could win their way in. But, in a stunner, they beat a good Buffalo team that suddenly could not move the ball against their defense.
This game should play out as a matchup between a balanced UAB team versus a Northern Illinois team that struggles to move the ball and score points, but who has a defense that covers up that deficiency fairly well. The question could be whether or not UAB has time to throw the ball against a formidable UNI pass rush that's undersized, but persistent.
Pick: Under 43
Prediction: UAB 17 UNI 13
(Note: I would grab this line at Will Hill if I could so you can take advantage of 43.5 Also, if you like UNI on the money line you're getting a better payback (+125) at Wynn, but worse than everyone else on UAB)
DXL Frisco Bowl
San Diego State vs Ohio (-2.5) [54] ML: SDSU 120 OHIO -140
If the Aloha Bowl is the landing sport of disappointment for Power 5 teams then the Frisco Bowl is the Group of 5 equivalent. Both of these teams had hopes of winning their respective conference titles this year and both teams had disappointing seasons.
The Aztecs started off rough against Stanford before rebounding against Arizona State and snagging a quality win over Boise State. At the end of the season they fell apart losing to Nevada-Reno, Fresno State, Hawai'i and (inexplicably) UNLV. They finished the season 7-5 and there was a real chance they did not receive a bowl invitation given the Mountain West only having 5 bowl tie-ins and 7 bowl eligible teams. They did make it, and they'll try to establish their running game early, because they are not good passing the ball at all. Their defense has been inconsistent and has looked slow in several games.
The Ohio Bobcats wanted more. Coach Frank Solich' team had dreams of winning the MAC. Despite a 1-3 start they ran roughshod over the early part of their conference schedule before stumbling against Northern Illinois, and then suffering a bad loss to Miami (Ohio) at home. Thus endeth the dream season. Running back A.J. Ouellette is the type of Senior you want to root for, and WR Papi White is a force IF QB Quentin Maxwell can get him the ball.
The question in this game is going to be motivation. Which team, if either of them, will have it? This could devolve quickly into a sloppy mud-fight of a football game full of field goals and punts. Or it could be a blowout. Having two teams disappointed coming off of the regular season makes it hard to determine. I think Solich experience prevails here and Oullette and the Ohio offense show up big.
Pick: Ohio to cover -3
Prediction: SDSU 17 Ohio 34
(Note: If you like SDSU on the ML head to Wynn where you can still grab 130 instead of 120)
Bad Boy Mowers Gasparilla Bowl
Marshall (-2.5) vs. South Florida [55.5] ML: MU -140 USF +120
Perhaps the biggest news in this game was the announcement by Marshall WR Tyre Brady that he will be suiting up and playing in this game. That's good news for head coach Doc Holliday because his offense without Brady would have some questions. QB Isaiah Greene is plenty good however, and is a dual threat QB that makes the offense go. Defensively Marshall can be porous at times, but I'm not sure USF has the weapons to challenge them much.
USF started off the season looking great. Charlie Strong's team won their first seven games of the season, before losing horrifically to Houston and going 0-5 to finish. Ironically, it was the Strong defense (his calling card) that let them down. USF backed into a bowl slot, is not playing good football, and is having trouble Their offensive coordinator left to assume head coaching duties at FCS McNeese State so the Tight Ends coach will be assuming the playcalling duties. (Not Shaun King which left everyone stunned)
The biggest question in this game is what happened to the Bulls? In most of their last 5 games they weren't even competitive and many believe that it's all due to Strong not being willing to change his tendencies. IF the Bulls don't, then the Herd is going to Thunder all over them and it won't be pretty. QB Blake Barnett has to NOT turn the ball over. At this point in his career I have next to zero faith in Strong to turn this around.
Pick: Marshall to COVER -2.5 and OVER 55.5
Prediction: Marshall 42 South Florida 35
(Note: Grab the Over line at Caesar's where you can get 54.5. I don't think it will be that close, but every little bit helps. If you're a South Florida ML player head to Caesars as well, they're offering +130)
Makers Wanted Bahamas Bowl
Florida International vs. Toledo (-6.5) [68.5] ML: FIU +210 TU: -260
To my way of thinking, this is one of the better bowl invites of the post season. Hey, you get a trip to the Bahamas. Florida International had a good season, and head coach Butch Davis had them on the cusp of playing in the C-USA championship game. Late season losses to Lane Kiffin's FAU Owls and a 28-24 gut-punch at home from Marshall put the kibosh on those hopes. FIU's problem as it stands is off-the-field. In October 3 players were shot in a drive by shooting and just this week, rotational running back Shawndarrius Phillips was arrested on a domestic battery charge. Butch Davis is not known for doing all that well in bowl games, and it seems he's having issues keeping his team focused.
Toledo's season has been wildly inconsistent having only once won two games in a row at any point in the year. They did lose 3 in a row once as well but everything else has been win/loss/win/loss etc. Coach Jason Candele has led the team through what is undoubtedly a down year and still guided the Rockets to a winning season for the ninth year in a row. If Toledo's offense is rolling, they are running the ball, and they have a deep stable of running backs to help them do so.
FIU has had issues stopping the run, and Toledo likes to run the ball. Toledo has had issues stopping athletic WR's and FIU has those on the outside. This feels like a track meet game in the balmy Bahamas with a bunch of points scored.
Pick: Over 58.5
Prediction: FIU 42 Toledo 52
(Note: I'm grabbing this over at Caesars where I can get 68 Caesars and Will Hill are better for Toledo players, while Westgate and Wynn currently have the edge for FIU)
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Western Michigan vs. BYU (-13) [49.5] ML: WMU 400 BYU -550
Western Michigan's season has been streaky. They started off being overmatched by before reeling off six wins in a row against two bad teams and at the start of conference play. Then they lost three in a row in conference before finishing out the season with a win against a Northern Illinois team that had nothing to play for and played like it. Part of the reason for the swoon was the loss of QB Jake Wassnick in late October to injury, but in the Northern Illinois game Freshman QB Kaleb Elerby looked good, and gave hints that this line might be a little skewed.
BYU might be the most hollow 6-6 team in the country. They do have early wins over Arizona and Wisconsin early in the year, but since then have only beaten the likes of McNeese State, Hawai'i (in a game in which Cole McDonald was injured, UMass and NM State. Yuck. Their offense is just above horrid, but their defense is fairly stout. Western Michigan has a good record against teams who play like them.
The key to this game is the play of Elerby. If he can handle the BYU defense then Western Michigan should have no trouble covering the -13. I think he'll do fine, and while I think BYU will have some success running the ball against the Broncos defense, I don't think that Tanner Mangum is half the quarterback people seem to believe he is.
Pick: Western Michigan to COVER +13
Prediction: WMU 24 BYU 27
(Note: I'm happy with either Westgate or Wynn here, both are the best for this bet. IF you want to take WM on the ML then be happy with the +400 line you get as well. It's the best of any of them.
Next up we'll take a look at the last pre-Christmas games including one game that I think might be one of the better games of the bowl season.
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