Monday, May 18, 2020

COVID: The Slow, Gradual re-opening of our souls

Over the weekend we started to see some very public signs that the world was coming out of its State-mandated slumber.

In Germany, soccer was played, albeit without fans, but real, live soccer was played. Here in the State's there was some golf. Granted, not the PGA style golf that we're used to, but players lugging around their own bags, being miked up, and only one guy touching the flags, while another one carried around a rake, was at least something. NASCAR held a race, again without fans, and for the first time in six weeks we had to be nervous for the driver when watching a wreck.

Some, not all, States are allowing some businesses to open. Here in Texas restaurants can once again welcome some customers inside to dine, nail salons and barbers can paint nails and cut hair again. Little signs of normalcy. (Side note: get that hair cut folks, some of you are looking a little rough)

Since this was, and might be again, a gambling blog, it's important here to discuss casinos beginning to slowly reopen. Louisiana, my 'local' allowed casinos to open today, and they have, at 25% occupancy and with strict protocols in place. I am not going to be one to rush out of visit.  As it stands now I'm planning in the 2nd half of June for my first foray. I'm looking forward to it. A nice long video poker session coupled with a Tito's and soda (or three, or four) is just what this writer needs.

The point is that people need interaction, we're social creatures after all, for the most part anyway. As this went on and on and drug out there was evidence that people were finding creative ways to get out and do things. This seemed to be working out pretty well in most places but, in a few States (California & New York for example) we saw that the worst crime in the world was defying the rulers. Governors who emptied the prisons of criminals were fining and locking up people who had the temerity to question authority. 

Maybe it's not a coincidence that the States suffering from the worst outbreaks, also have some of the worst elected officials, who were wrongly given glowing coverage by the media before the true stories started coming out?

The long and short of this is that no reopening plan, even the most thoughtfully crafted ones, will be successful without you.

I don't mean in terms of getting out. That decisions is up to you and entirely dependent on your circumstances. What I mean is that IF you decide to go out, the success of this plan is going to depend on you practicing social distancing, wearing PPE effectively, and continuing to practice good hygiene.

Until we get an effective vaccine this is going to be the new reality for all of us and I don't think that's going to change soon.  We're going to have to adjust and get the economy moving, and get people's jobs back so that they can care for their families.

Doing this the correct way should determine whether or not we have to shelter in place again.  I say SHOULD because I'm not sure that it WILL based on what we're seeing from our rulers today.

Friday, May 15, 2020

COVID: How to navigate the partisan waters.

Trump is either the worst President in the history of the United States of America, OR he's the best we've ever seen. There can be no middle ground.

You must either shelter-in-place in your home, ordering delivery and staying 20 feet away from every other human lest you die, OR you march on State Capitols in protest, bearing guns and try your best to not be associated with the grimy creep hoisting Nazi symbolism. There can be no middle ground.

Either we're all going to die, OR we're doing an unprecedented job. There can be no middle ground.

You've seen the stories, you've watched the news, you see the breathless missives on social media and, if you're like me you think: "What a load of crap!"

I've had discussions with people who, with a straight face and without a hint of irony, suggested that people can go outside provided they be willing to forego healthcare services. For the good of society. I've also had people suggest I want people to die because I'm starting to side against the lock down model of Coronavirus prevention, leaning more toward opening up with social distancing while working hard to isolate the more vulnerable among us.

The problem, today, is that this is now considered to be "radical" by some. With the media constantly feeding us a steady diet of panic, turning otherwise harmless interactions into psuedo-racist assaults, with the health experts lumping in ANY COVID-19 symptom into the Novel Coronavirus buckets, and with government generally doing a terrible job providing meaningful virus data, it's getting real hard to try and remain a calm, measured realist in an increasingly freaked out world.  What am I on about?  Think about this. When you see a statistic that says "[insert your State here] has had a grim day with the highest count of New COVID-19 cases EVER!!!!" it really means nothing absent more information about the number of tests performed.

More tests, means more cases, not necessarily that the pandemic is getting worse. Nor is it clear, yet, that this soft-reopening is leading to a so-called "second wave" as breathless young J-school grads are implying.  In fact, in a cruel twist of irony, medical providers are LOSING money, and in some cases filing for bankruptcy during a PANDEMIC.  That's just insane when you think about it.

Are some of the protests occurring the master-plan of "far right activists"?  At some level that is possible, but the more likely scenario is that people without work, and without means of feeding their kids, are getting sick and tired of having parks closed, not being able to get their hair cut, and not being able to provide.

On the other side the conspiracy theory du jour is that those mean, evil Democrats are intentionally killing the economy to damage The Bronzed Ego which would put Captain Creepy Confusion into the White House.  Possible?  Yes, but if you've been around any politicians for any period of time you'd soon realize that they couldn't conspire to open a can of beans, much less pull off something this complex.

The more likely scenarios are this:  We have allowed ourselves to be ruled by low-functioning idiots. They type of people who, as in the Biblical tale, are more likely to bury their wealth in the Earth rather than invest it. They are a risk-averse lot who's worst fear is not "having people die" but instead being "blamed for having people die" on their watch.  It's bad for being re-elected you see.  Yes, there is an element of Torquemada in some of these mini-despots, they crave the power, need the power to assuage their egos. But, and this is important, for the most part their Poly-Sci degrees don't give them the intellectual bandwidth to have a full concept of what they are really doing. So, they're playing it safe.

As for the protesters?  Most of these people just want to get back to work. Most people on the beaches are practicing social distancing, but are being made to look like their not through dishonest camera angles. Most adults with an even half-functioning brain understand, and will comply, with social distancing and will wear PPE if the local Pinochet's will just stop with the overreach and the rule by angry diktat.

If there has been any bad actor in this crisis it's the media. America's so called "5th Estate" has long abdicated their role of being America's watchdog, and has devolved into America's fear-monger. That's a problem, and I don't think there's an easy fix because the Emperor is completely unaware that he is sans clothes.

The United States are facing a mess of issues right now, and partisanship, plain laziness, institutional incompetence and downright dishonesty, have made it damn near impossible to get any semblance of the straight story.

And this is where it falls on you.  Because, in these United States since, oh the 1970's, we've fallen down on our responsibilities as citizens. We have handed over the administration and resolution of all things to an increasingly all-powerful government, asking them to deal with issues that they were never constructed to handle. We look at media stories uncritically, demanding that J-school grads with no real-world experience on the items on which they are reporting convey truths with 100% accuracy. We expect companies to be our gate-keepers for bad things.

Every step of modern life now is about having someone else do things for us, for relying on others to be the holders of our common sense. Then, when things go pear shaped, we look at those to whom we've outsourced our security for recompense.

The only way to resolve this is if enough people start taking control of their own lives, to stop screaming at our institutions every time something goes wrong, to force ourselves to spend time doing the important things rather than creating Tik-Tok videos.

Will it be hard?  Yes.  Does this mean that we're totally on our own?

Of course not.  because government does have a role and serve a purpose, corporations do have a role and they serve a purpose. The media has a crucial role and serve a vital purpose to the proper functioning of the Republic.

And we have a purpose as well. A critical one, a vital one. One that we've refused to perform for quite some time now.

Let's use this pandemic to change that.

Thursday, May 14, 2020

COVID Lockdown: What if? The Experts got it wrong.

Did we need to lock down the economy?

Increasingly, it appears that the answer is 'no'.

This is a big problem because IF the economy was locked down based almost entirely on faulty data from the Imperial College Model, and IF the model was as wonky as many are now suggesting, and IF when the underlying models were finally released to the public they were altered from their original form then it's possible that some level of fraud took place. Not likely mind you, but possible.

Even more discouraging is that the politicians, some medical professionals, and media are still using the numbers from this faulty model to drive current and future policy.

The problem is that we're told to "believe in the science".  But what happens when the science is just flat-out wrong?

That's a problem.  "Science" as it's now known, is highly model driven. In many cases the models take over actual empirical data as the gold standard of proof. That's what's happened here and it's what's happening in many cases in current times.

This used to be limited to the social sciences, unfortunately now it's creeping into actual science, with actual real-world consequences. It's led to the rise of political demogogues allowed to spew forth platitudes backed by J-school grads who have only a passing understanding of the actual scientific model.

The worry is that this leads to inane comments such as "the science is settled", which, as we know, is a lie. Science is never "settled", it's never finalized, it's always evolving and changing as new data points are collected and analyzed*.

We truly live in crazy times where too much gravity is given to people who really should not have it. Politicians are not, contrary to their beliefs, experts in infectious diseases. Media members are not experts in public policy. (If you don't believe me on this try this experiment: Find an article written on something you know a lot about. See how many errors it contains. Then ask yourself why you believe, without question, their writing on other subjects).  Front line medical workers, as honorably as they've toiled during this mess, are not experts on national health policy, response, etc.

Just like me, as an accountant, am not an expert on government budgets.  I may have opinions on them, and that's fine, but it doesn't mean that I've got some great insight into the process.

In the best of times there is a ton of noise in the system that you have to try and drown out. This is especially true in the age of social media where no one uses their real name and anyone can type pretty much anything.

We have to start doing better at determining the real from the jabber, and it's going to take all of us working together and actually applying ourselves rather than waiting for a media that's long abdicated that job to do it for us.

Fun times.













*Note: The above is NOT an argument against climate change, which I believe is real. Instead it is a jab against how our politicians and the media report on it. As if what's come before is infallible despite us now knowing it is not (Mann's hockey stick for example, or Gore's 'movie' that contained at least 10 items that were patently incorrect)

Fear and Loathing in the Time of COVID-19: Keep your Head Up.

Times have become a bit shit. I understand that.

From silly cries of "we're all in this together" coming from celebs who are Tik-toking in their posh mansions to politicians who have no experience with losing a job, or taking a pay cut, telling us that we all need to "share sacrifice" together, not meaning them obviously, they mean you.

In times like these I suggest you tune out that noise, tune out the hysterical media, the partisans, the so-called "experts' who put us into lock down based on what we now know to be shoddy evidence and focus instead on your friends, your neighbors, your loved ones.

Eventually, either the governments are going to relent and re-open, hopefully with a focus on social distancing, protecting the vulnerable and encouraging PPE use, which is what we should have done in the first place.  And when they do this it's going to be vital that people actually get out and do this.

I don't mean that you need to book that flight to Rome right now, or immediately head to Las Vegas or Santa Barbara, but what we do need to do is start living life again. Go to your favorite restaurant and grab dinner, maybe take a weekend and go for a small road trip. Do something that gets you out and interacting and putting some amount of money back in the economy.

There are discussions to be had, honest discussions, about what our institutions did right and wrong during this mess. Believe it or not, there are some good things that were accomplished. But there were many bad as well. In fact, the media, government, and medical community has done more to exacerbate this problem than they have to help it.  Leaving out the front-line workers obviously.

But that's a long discussion for another day.

Right now you need to focus on you. Your mental health, your physical health, your financial health. These are things that the government, and the media, cannot help you with. Yes, unemployment and SBA loans can provide bridge support, but your long-term health and wealth is, and should be, your own concern.

I might suggest that you take this opportunity to re-evaluate what you're doing in your career. How can you improve your lot in life?

We're at the beginning of what is going to be a long, bumpy road to recovery and whatever comes beyond. Given the rather pathetic state of leadership in the world today I've a bad feeling there are going to be more missteps than steps-forward as we do. During all of this it will be vital that you keep your eyes on you and yours, not on the Bronzed Ego or Nancy Ice Cream.

When it comes to politicians and other institutions: Eff 'em.  Let them scoop their ice cream and argue amongst themselves and continue to play-pretend that they're somehow "fighting".

For the more serious among us, let's look out for each other.  And if you wake up in the morning and find yourself feeling down, don't be afraid to ask for help. There's nothing weak about needing a helping hand, or a shoulder to cry on or just a friendly person to vent to.

Keep your head up, with a mask on and 6 feet away from the other person who is trying to keep their head up as well.

But let's get our heads up out THERE, where things are happening and we need to be a part of them.

Wednesday, May 13, 2020

A COVID Revival

On Dec 31st 2019 I wrote what I thought would be my last post on this, or any, blog.  I was done, finished, and I really wasn't regretting the decision, nor did I have any reason to write about anything in long form (except the book on business management I'm working on) so I really didn't miss it.

Then strange times hit. The world locked down (apparently on the advice of some very dodgy (false) modeling) and we've all been confined to our homes, "essential" trips only kids, and forced to tele-commute, work from home, and in many cases, lose our jobs, be forced to take cuts in pay etc.

Tens of thousands have died and Millions have been infected. In a year where I was fully planning on reducing my social media use drastically, circumstances have required that more time is spent on various mediums, for no other reason than to keep some kind of interaction going.

I've started fiddling with YouTube, working on videos that I fully intend to keep going. I've been active on Twitter, less snarky and more supportive to folks, I've been watching friend's YouTube videos and greatly enjoying them.

Unlike some in the media, I'm not apprehensive. I don't have "angst" about venturing into public, I'm not having an existential moment, I'm just working and taking walks and eating healthy, I've actually lost some weight during this mess.  Mentally I'm just fine. I have my wife, my dogs and my family for support.

Yes, if you follow along on Twitter and YouTube you know that Mom recently passed. But I'm at peace with that because now she is no longer in pain.

So, overall, I'm good.  What I have found out during this time is what I instinctively knew from years of writing blogs.  I'm not a born entertainer, I'm not someone who's ever going to have 50 gazillion followers and subscribers.  Others are celebrating their 2, 3 or 10 thousandth YouTube subscriber, I was ecstatic to break 50. c'est la vie to be honest.  I've been off for a bit but I'll start back soon.  There's only so many videos you can make of yourself sitting and talking with a brown curtain in the background.

As for Vegas, that's not happening for a while. Not because I'm scared of traveling, I'm not, but because I simply cannot afford it given work realities right now.  Maybe October? Maybe not. Probably not until the job situation changes.

What I am planning on is returning to a casino in June. My local casino, which gets authorization from the State to re-open May 18th.  Currently I'm planning a trip in late June. I'm hoping I can record some play and show you all what the new "new" is.

Until then I'm going to temporarily revive this wheezing relic, to provide some thoughts, insights and all of the other junk you used to know and love. I'll probably keep it going throughout the pandemic, but I'm not sure after that.  It might stay around as an extension of the brand, it may not.

But you at least have around 3-4 months of ignoring it, and that's a healthy hunk of reality right there.

Be healthy.

(In a nod to interaction I'm going to try and reinstate comments on here. We'll see how it goes)

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