A slight delay

Just a brief interlude before I start my travels.  Two interesting points in today's SWA/UA write up in ChronBlog.  One from the story, one from the comments:

Vote on Hobby Expansion Could be May 30th. Chris Moran, Chron.com

Although Southwest CEO Gary Kelly told council last week, “If we can reach an agreement with you, I’ll pay for the $100 million project,” he said, acknowledging later that it may be financed by passenger ticket surcharges, as suggested by Houston Airport System Director Mario Diaz.

So Kelly wasn't telling the whole truth. Not that he lied. (I'm sure SWA is willing to absorb some of the cost) but he omitted that Diaz seems willing to give it away to SWA.  One would guess Diaz is legacy hunting, he thinks he'll be seen as the HAS President who expanded the system to two international airports.

More likely, however, he'll be known for this:

yellowjournalism lives says:

Moving the hub is not an option for United. Reducing its size and moving a bunch of flights to a more profitable situation is. Reduce the number of flight out of IAH by 1/3 and you get way more negative impact than opening up Hobby Internationally so a few folk on the south side can fly easier. City council is selling out one of the largest employers in the area. Who wins? Those on the council that will no doubt profit on one way, shape, or form.

It seems inevitable that UA will at least shift some of their IAH burden to another hub should this move be approved. (Stephen Seagraves has presented a good case for Denver.) It also seems that the shifted load will be greater than the incoming load from SWA.  Houston also runs the risk of being seen as a city that doesn't honor it's commitments. (as suggested by another friend of mine) In this case Houston had, in the past, made a long-term commitment to IAH and it's growth into a large, International hub.  Now, because a bad mayor had a bad experience with United, all of that is gong to go away.

Given what I posted yesterday, there's a better than average chance SWA cost structure and industry trends don't result in lower fares at all.  And there's no way we're ever going to see the, now mythical, $188 one-way flight to Bogota.  It's just not going to happen.

A more likely scenario is that future flight traffic through the entire HAS is reduced, and Denver becomes the beneficiary of the current administration's short-sightedness.

OK, that's all....Wheels up again.


UPDATE: CultureMap provides Bethune's perspective. (Hint, he thinks Dallas and Atlanta would be the big winners)*











*This link provided due to obligation 47 Amendment B section D-4 in the part-time travel blogger code regarding requirements to link to good stories no matter how I feel about the originating outlet.

Wheels Up (part II)

Time for some time off, no posting until Tuesday.

Everyone have a great weekend.

Something missing from the SWA/UA debate

You don't see this factoid in any of the Houston media coverage on the matter:

Southwest postpones orders for 30 Boeing 737's. Seattle Times via Chicago Tribune.

The larger U.S. legacy airlines have cut their labor costs below Southwest's, threatening the Texas airline's status as a low-cost carrier

If you need to know why the "Southwest Effect" is no longer in play, that blurb should tell you all you need to know.

What we really need is a meaningful, third party study performed without interference from the two airlines in question.  Will we get that?  I'm not banking on it.  Until then, remember this when Southwest talks about how much cheaper their flights are going to be.  On labor costs, they are losing out and they don't have those fuel hedges to fall back on any longer......

I mean come on. #shuttertheedboard

Who should fill Hutchison's boots? The Apple Dumpling Gang, ChronBlog

Given a magic wand, we'd order up a replacement who would blend the skills of Hutchison with those of Lloyd Bentsen - with just a pinch of the calculated orneriness of Lyndon Johnson.

In other words, you'd order up a Democratic Senator to win the Republican nomination.

Really gang?

The killer now is that, after this paean to past Democratic Senators, they go and endorse David Dewhurst because he's....well...closest to what they think Republicans should be (i.e. Democrat lite)

Our dream resume would read: collegial, well-versed on issues foreign and domestic, a tough bargainer who keeps his word; above all, skilled in the traditional Senate ways of civil give and take, and in tune with the needs and views of the millions who make up the Texas mainstream. That's asking a lot.......(snip)  our endorsement goes to Lt. Gov. Dewhurst, with a nod of acknowledgment to Leppert's well-conceived candidacy.

OK then.  The problem the Gang, and other editorial boards, are going to have, is that Dewhurst is the likely winner, and he's shunned them (a la Rick Perry) from the beginning of this campaign.  I believe that we're going to see more and more of this, especially from Republican candidates, as editorial board endorsements mean less and less.

You know the gang wanted to endorse Leppert, but he's got as much chance of winning the primary as Obama does of carrying Texas in the general.  i.e. none.  The problem these editorial boards are currently facing is that they share little in common (other than perhaps a geographical similarity) with their few remaining readers.

The Gang is reduced to two general types of comments:

1. Readers commenting on what a bunch of liberals run the place.

2. Matt Bramanti coming in and continuously pointing out their copious factual and content errors.  It's the Lord's work, but Bramanti is tireless and has an eagle eye for finding them.

It's long past time to shutter the ed board and re-deploy the resources to local reporting.  If there's one area where the Chron could take the lead Nationally, this would be it, and it'd have the biggest (positive) impact on Houston news.

Short haul flights (05/16/2012)

So much to talk about so little time.....

Galveston bungles election. - And there was much wailing and gnashing of teeth. (Interesting that a LOT of Democratic incumbents were those that were damaged by this.)

In which ChronBlog discovers it's hot in Houston. - Sometimes there's just nothing left to say.

Mayor Parker spends it all and then some in new budget. - She wants to dip into the entirety of the reserve fund.

Today's "Pot, meet kettle" award - The idea of Village Voice Houston chastising anyone about the quality of their journalism is funny in and of itself.

Somewhere, Mostyn is crying. - This is almost like the TWIA spiking the football after a touchdown.

The REAL inconvenient truth. - Not every country is as eager to lose their economic advantages as are the US and the EU.

Ezra Klein continues to amuse us. - At some point someone is going to realize that this guy is just not that bright.

Hear! Hear! - This proposal has the No Upgrades 100% support.

Why Greece matters. - And why there's precious little the US can do about it.

What?!? You mean the Tea Party fish aren't doing what they said? - You could knock me over with a feather.

W. sounding more presidential than ever. - His (mostly) silence speaks volumes, and proves him 10 times the statesman of the current WH occupant.

How you like us now? - Suddenly the Obama administration has a come to Jesus moment on clean coal. Funny how some bad polling numbers will do that.

As goes Texas, so goes Wisconsin - Rhetoric to the contrary the DNC is going to have to pick their battles this election cycle.

Anything you can do I can do better. - Remember when Obama was bemoaning Super PAC's as the death knell of democracy?

I'm mad too Barack - Obama campaign hearing that more and more from the middle.

Here come the anti-incumbent fighters. - It will be interesting to see if this group has much success. As a whole, people hate Congress, but LOVE their Congressmen.

Nope, still not a fan of "fact check" journalism. - It's lazy, and the "facts" are often heavily weighted by the opinion of the fact-checker.  Politifarce indeed.

And finally....(probably most importantly however)

Bridgetown developer says tax abatement 'needed'. - If it truly is NEEDED, then it's probable that the entire project is not economically feasible and should be altered or scrapped.


UPDATE:  Tax abatement granted - I'm guessing this type of abatement is OK with our progressive friends. It seems the 'correct' winners are getting selected.



Please return your tray-tables and seat-backs to their upright positions and enjoy your day.

Early Voting (Day 1)

According to Stan Stanart's Harris County Clerk office the early vote totals for day one came in just shy of 5,000 total. (both Republican and Democratic primaries)  The rough party split was 2/1 in favor of Republicans, which should surprise no one since a large swath of the Democratic vote takes advantage of the free stuff bus rides to polling places on election day. Another telling number are the mail-in ballots.  A record 35K have been requested (so far) in Harris County alone.  What to make of these numbers?

Well.....

 - It's not been confirmed but some political insiders may have already speculated that the Statewide races are being called, in advance, for the eventual Republican nominees.

 - Fun fact: Of the nearly 5000 that voted, 25 had the first name Hubert.*

 - State Senator Dan Patrick has already declared that the election results will show that State Senator John Carona is a traditional-marriage hating poopy head.

 - In advance of the election, State Dems are saying that these early voting numbers prove, beyond a shadow of a doubt, that voter fraud is a fraud.

 - Yesterday marked the start of the post-election Democratic interest group infighting season.

 - Despite relatively high expected voter participation, the losers of this election will caution about "any judgments made on the public mood" based on the results.

 - No word yet when Rep. Sheila Jackson-Lee is planning her first, post election, staffer purge.

 - Based on these numbers we can, fairly safely, assume that ALL of Ron Paul's supporters in Harris County have voted.

 - No voter won the "5,000th voter of the day" sack of used bumper stickers planned to be handed out by Jared Woodfill and the HCRP.

 - There was a winner of the "Hey, we got 100 voters!" stack of Obamacare waivers handed out by the HCDP.  No word on the identity of the lucky recipient.


Things to watch for in the future:

 - Big Jolly's annual "Terry Lowry's Link Letter is a rotten egg" blog posting. (c'mon Dave, we're waiting.)
 - The next attack ad in the Dewhurst/Cruz tie.
 - Bicyclist Stein's electoral 'analysis' stating these numbers are "positives" for local Democrats.

Worst Awards:

Worst Campaign slogan:  Leslie Johnson - Harris County Attorney "Not just a lawyer, a LEADER". - Um...no, what I want in this office is a competent lawyer.  We've seen enough of what happens when 'conservatives' try and lead movements instead of performing the jobs that they were elected to perform.

Worst Campaign ad: Carl Pittman - Joe Arpaio ad. Not only is it poorly produced (you can barely make out the beginning the audio quality is so bad) but Sheriff Joe sounds as if he's an automaton. It's like the computer voice in War Games.















*(OK, it's not a fact.  But it would be fun.)