1. Tell Your Mama (20/1)
3. Coach Rocks (7/2)
4. Red Ruby (5/1)
5. Mihrab (30/1)
6. C.S. Incharge (15/1)
7. Goodonehoney (5/1)
8. Indy Union (10/1)
9. Sara Street (4/1)
10. Stakes On A Plane (20/1)
Most of the analysis that I've seen has this coming down to either Sara Street, or Midnight Disguise with Coach Rocks possibly upsetting the apple cart.
I'm leaning toward a $10 win bet on the 9 but using the 4, Red Ruby in a $5 Exacta Box with the same. I'm going to bet a $1 Tri Box with 4-7-8-9 to try and sweep up the minor placings. Even though she's lightly raced the 7 Goodonehoney has won both of her starts by a combined 11 3/4 lengths so I don't think you can leaver her totally out of your exotics. I'm leaving Coach Rocks out however, thinking that the morning line (slight) favorite here is only getting a bump because she raced in the KY Oaks. The problem is she finished seventh in that race and really didn't have any trip issues to complain about, she was just outran. She won the Gulfstream Oaks in a TOUGH race and I'm wondering just how much that took out of her. If she beats me, she beats me. I'm OK with that.
Here are my thoughts on the remaining races today (at the time I post this, I'm sitting out race 8 because my top two choices scratched out.)
Race 9: 3 - Rated R Superstar. - Won its last race at a slightly shorter distance but appears to be a horse on the come. I also like the 1- Irish War Cry but he's let me down a LOT in the past. Still, I'll probably put $5 bucks on him to win as a long shot play because he was my horse his 3yo season.
Race 10: 5 - Vici - Admittedly a bit of a reach here as this horse is stepping up in class but is a gutty performer who has only finished off the board twice in the last two years. And I LOVE the pickup of jockey Jose Ortiz here.
Race 11: The Black-Eyed Susan (see above)
Race 12: No Bet. Again, so many scratches (including my favorite) and I'm unenthused about what remains.
Race 13: 1. Furiously Kissed - This is a hard race to handicap as the field consists of a LOT of horses who have a habit of finishing 2nd or 3rd against stakes level company. Despite the long price (14-1) I think Furiously Kissed has the best competition in her rearview mirror and I have a habit of jumping on Javier Castellano mounts at anything over 10-1.
Races 14-18: No bets. There are eighteen(!!!) races on today's card. Good luck to you if you're betting all of them but the last five are those weird optional claiming races that seem to be almost impossible to handicap. Also, it's a sloppy track and their are a ton of scratches in some. I'll bet my 7 above and enjoy the last part of the card while grilling tonight in advance of the Vegas Golden Knights game.
Good luck however you bet.