Tuesday, October 23, 2018

The Week Nine FIVE and the Week Eight Three and OUT

A rare combined post. Due to real life scheduling I have a limited amount of time this week.  So here are both presented with no comment.  Sorry.


The Week Nine FIVE

1. Ball State @ Ohio (-10) - Pick: Ohio to cover -10

2. Baylor @ West Virginia (-14) - Pick: West Virginia to cover -14

3. App State (-8) @ Georgia Southern - Pick: Appalachian State to cover -8

4. Wake Forest @ Louisville (-2.5) - Pick: Wake Forest to win on the ML

5. Texas A&M @ Mississippi State (-2.5) - Pick: Texas A&M to win on the ML



The NFL Three and OUT

1. Philadelphia (-3) @ Jacksonville - Pick: Philadelphia to cover -3

2. Broncos @ Chiefs (-9) - Pick: Chiefs to cover -9

3. Saints @ Vikings (-2.5) - Pick: Vikings to cover -2.5


Since I'm picking so early the service that I use for lines (ESPN) is not showing the over/under totals for most of the games yet so I'm not picking against any this week.  This will make it harder to have a winning week because I LOVE total bets more than point spread ones.  Going forward there will be a lot more of the former coming than the latter.

Enjoy the games, see you next week.

Monday, October 22, 2018

Recapping the weekend that was. (The Week Eight FIVE and the Week Seven Three and OUT)

Into every life a little rain must fall.  Right now this betting SZN is my rain. It's not that I'm running bad overall, I'm just running bad on my FIVE and Three and OUT picks.  I'm running REALLY bad on my college football FIVE, despite having a decent record overall for the year in college football.

As a reminder, I don't play all of my FIVE picks, they're just picks. Some times the lines go wrong on game day or I find something else that moves into an area that I like. That's the problem with picking early, things aren't always available when I can finally get to a legal book.

That said, things are looking iffy for a winning FIVE result this year.

Let's see what happened:

1. Minnesota @ Nebraska (-4) [56]

Pick: Minnesota to COVER +4.5


Result: Minnesota 28 Nebraska 53

I was very surprised by this one. I thought that the Gophers would put up a fight at least against Nebraska but I was wrong. The Cornhuskers jumped on them early and scored often, grabbing Scott Frost's first win.  PJ Fleck seems to have lost this team.

2 & 3 Oregon @ Washington State (-3) [66]

Pick(s): Oregon to WIN on the ML and OVER 66.


Result: Oregon 20 Washington State 34

I had a lot riding on this game and missed all the way around. Oregon came out flat, surprisingly, and Wazzu just trucked 'em.  The Pac 12 is a mess this season and it's not looking like there's going to be clarity any time soon.

4. Ohio State (-13.5) @ Purdue [68]

Pick: Ohio State to COVER -13.5


Result: Ohio State 20 Purdue 49

This was less of an upset and more of a public mugging. Ohio State has real issues and they are all seemingly created by Urban Meyer. As a Michigan fan I can't say that I'm all torn up about this result, but it doesn't make me happy either. If you remember the wife is an Ohio State fan and this made for a sad, Saturday night.

5. Mississippi State @ LSU (-6.5) [45]

Pick: LSU to COVER -6.5


Result: Mississippi State 2 LSU 19

An ugly win is a win is a win and LSU kept me from being blanked. The Tigers are pretty good, we'll learn just how good in a couple of weeks when they take on the one team we KNOW is good: Alabama.

Total for the week 1-4  Season 16-23-1 (.400) Admittedly not where we want to be.


NFL Three and OUT

Unlike college I'm doing marginally better on the season for the pros, but I'm still lagging behind where I want to be.  And Sunday was a dog of a day to boot. Fortunately, I spent the day away from the TV running errands and spending time consoling the wife so I didn't have to sit and watch the disaster unfold.

On to the games:

1. Tennessee @ LA Chargers (-6.5) [45]

Pick: LA Chargers to COVER -6.5


Result: Tennessee 19 LA Chargers 20

So, the Titans scored a TD at the end and only lost because they went for two.  But that time expiring TD killed the cover on this one and well, that's just the way things go sometimes.  Good pick, bad result.

2. Minnesota (-3) @ NY Jets [47]

Pick: Minnesota to COVER -3


Result: Minnesota 37 NY Jets 17

The Vikings were just too good. To me this wasn't a hard game to predict, but there was a LOT of sharp money on the Jets which deflated the line to our benefit.

3. Houston @ Jacksonville (-4.5) [42.5]

Pick: Jacksonville to COVER -4.5


Result: Houston 20 Jacksonville 7

My pattern of fading the Texans didn't pay off this week, so I might put that to bed for a week or three given that their schedule coming up is awful. Then again I MIGHT decide to play them on this Thursday game against Miami depending on the line.

Weekly Result: 1-2  Season 10-11 (.476)


On to the next weekend then.....

Thursday, October 18, 2018

An Open Letter To Downtown Las Vegas: Don't do it.

Dear Downtown Las Vegas Casino Operators:

First off, congratulations!  While the Las Vegas Strip is facing rough economic times it appears that your gambling takes are increasing. While the Strip is rapidly falling off a cliff, you're seeing gamblers coming in at levels you never expected. Resorts are being builtbeing refurbishedhave completed successful refurbishments and the Fremont Street Canopy is going to get a lot clearer and brighter.

So, things are going well. The area around you has been revitalized (sort-of) and people are starting to rediscover what made you great in the first place.

And, how are you responding?

By threatening to mess it all up, Royally.

It's so bad even downtown regular Royal Flusher has taken notice and is concerned.

I think maybe we are on the tail end of having downtown as a value destination. Three years from now, we'll know if it's all 7/5 crap poker machines.

Here's the problem.  If you ruin the value proposition that is (still) Downtown Las Vegas, you ruin the reason people go there. 

You're not the Strip. Even the Strip isn't what the Strip thinks it is, and the numbers are showing that.  Currently people can gamble closer and closer to their hometown, and the options are expanding every day. Heading to Vegas used to mean three things:

1. The Best Resorts - Between the amenities, the customer service, the perks and the illusion of luxury the Vegas Strip used to offer an experience like no other. The problem is that unique experience has been all but duplicated across the country, with lower resort fees, lower prices and, in many cases, better customer service.

2. The Best Gambling - For decades Las Vegas was the gold standard for gambling. You knew, when you placed your bets, that you were getting a fair game, you would get paid for your wins, and there were rules in place to protect both you and the casino from fraud and graft. You also knew that you were going to get odds that, while still casino friendly, were at least fair. Vegas has gone away from that now under a flood of 6/5 Black Jack, Triple Zero Roulette and worse Video Poker Pay Tables than you can find almost anywhere. 7/5 Double Double Bonus, 6/5 Black Jack and Triple Zero Roulette are really only "things" in Clark County. You won't find these horribly player-unfriendly rules anywhere EXCEPT for the place that still has the gall to market itself as a gambling mecca.

3. The Best Value - Look, I get that the days of cheap rooms and cheap eats are gone. We live in an era of celebrity chefs and suites and terraces and big name DJ's at the pools.  But what we're starting to see now is the nickel-and-dime charges that really anger patrons. From paid parking to resort fees that often outpace the nightly published rate, to CNF fees that are added to a restaurant bill and provide the patron with....nothing. 

All three of the things that used to bring people to the Vegas Strip in droves are now creeping into the management mindset downtown. This is what's commonly known as a "bad thing" and by all accounts it's going to get worse, especially if Tillman Fertitta is successful in his efforts to merge with, and take controlling interest in, Caesars the slow creep of fees and ROI threaten to totally render downtown useless.

As Royal Flusher stated: Are we doomed to a future of crap 7/5 Double Double Bonus video poker machines and 6/5 black jack with horrid rules and Triple Zero Roulette downtown? Have we reached the point where even old Vegas succumbs to the "suck the player dry as quickly as possible" mentality?

One of the biggest lies about downtown Las Vegas is that the slots are "looser" than those one can find on the Strip. In large part this illusion has been created by superior Video Poker Pay Tables (VP is considered a slot for reporting purposes) bumping up the slot hold percentage across the board. Many people, myself included, feel that the Downtown "slot takeout percentage" is actually LOWER than that on the Strip, and that the bump is only realized because of better VP pay-tables. If downtown decides to get rid of those then people will see just how poorly they're being treated in casinos ran by Boyd, Tilman Fertitta and the Stephens brothers, that's when things will really take a turn for the worse.

Currently you downtown casino operators are trying to position yourselves in marketing as the "fun" way to do Vegas. You have Stephens running all around town acting like a man of the people, you have Boyd and Pinnacle showing "jackpot" winners on Twitter and you have Golden Nugget acting like the Belle of the Ball in the middle of a bunch of paupers.

If all of that changes, if downtown becomes nothing more than a glorified "Strip North" then there will be no reason for people to come downtown any longer.

The Strip is still bigger, brighter, fancier and better in many aspects. All you'll be stuck with is nostalgia and poor odds.

Don't do it.

Thank you for your time.

College Football: The Week 8 FIVE

As we get neck-deep into conference play we're starting to figure out more and more who these teams are, who's good, who's not, and who might have the tools to make runs at conference championships.


1. Minnesota @ Nebraska (-4) [56]

Pick: Minnesota to COVER +4.5

Just when you think Nebraska is going to get a win, things fall apart.  A lot of people are backing the Huskers because they think they are "due". That's a horrible reason to back a team. Minnesota is not a very good football team this year, but Nebraska is a BAD football team right now. I still think Scott Frost will turn this around, but he's going to need some time.

2 & 3 Oregon @ Washington State (-3) [66]

Pick(s): Oregon to WIN on the ML and OVER 66.

A rare Two-fer in one game here as I really like what head coach Mario Cristobal is putting together in Eugene.  Granted, at times Wazzu can shock you with a strong defensive effort, but I think the team that scores last here wins. I expect a shootout won by the Ducks and Herbert.

4. Ohio State (-13.5) @ Purdue [68]

Pick: Ohio State to COVER -13.5

I have the talent gap between the two teams being fairly wide, and Ohio State understands what they need to do to teams like Purdue in order to set themselves up for the CFP.  The Buckeye defense has survived the shock of losing their best player for the season, and is playing good, aggressive ball right now.

5. Mississippi State @ LSU (-6.5) [45]

Pick: LSU to COVER -6.5

I really like what LSU has on the field this year and I think Coach Orgeron should be in the running for coach of the year. The Bulldogs have talent, but are a much better team at home than on the road. Plus, this game is being played in Baton Rogue, at night, under the lights in Death Valley. There's not many better home field advantages than that.

Other Games:

Memphis @ Missouri (-9.5) - Part of me likes the visiting Tigers to pull an upset over the home Tigers here.  Yes, it's a dreaded "SEC game" for an American school, but the American conference has shown a proclivity to shine in games such as this.  I'm laying a little on the Memphis side of this one, but not as part of my FIVE.

Alabama (-29) @ Tennessee - The Tide are quite possibly the only really good team in college football right now. I think we're going to see how good against a Tennessee team that's showing signs of improvement, but who catch the #1 team in the country at exactly the wrong time for their development.

NC State @ Clemson (-17) - The Wolfpack have a history of playing Clemson close, and the Tigers come into this game with a host of questions on offense, a defense that's not been as dominant as many expected, and looking for all the world that they're ripe for an upset. You know what THAT means.....

Oklahoma (-8) @ TCU  - If there was any way OU would slide to -6.5 I would jump all over this, but at -8 I'm just not a fan. That said TCU has real problems right now both on offense and defense and OU is ANGRY, understanding they need to run it up to impress the CFP committee.


Games in which I have a rooting interest:

Air Force (-10) @ UNLV [57] - The Desert Rug Rats have fallen off a cliff after the Armani Rodgers injury and there are real rumblings that head coach Tony Sanchez is not the one to lead this team to a winning record.  They have been way over matched in the last two games since Rodgers went out and the coaching staff seems to have no clue what to do. Air Force is not a very good team this year, but they're probably good enough to run roughshod over the Rebels.  Drink heavy Rebel fans, this one's gonna hurt.

And Finally.....

Michigan (-7) @ Michigan State [41] - Another week, another Michigan line that I just hate. While I'm happy that the team showed development and progress against Wisconsin, it's also possible that the Badgers were highly overrated this year, while it's also possible that Sparty is back to being good. For all of the talk about Michigan "controlling their playoff destiny" the next two weekends will prove that true or false.  This is a murderer's row of games. Wisconsin, AT Michigan State and AT Penn State.  Get the win here Michigan, then worry about Happy Valley.

Next week I'll release my top 10. Because I think at that point we'll have enough of a sample size to go on.

Enjoy the games, fade or follow these picks, whichever you choose.

Wednesday, October 17, 2018

All sports: The weekly grab-bag.

So much going on in the world of sports, and sports betting, right now that I don't have time to fully dive into all of it.  So here's a mish-mash of stuff that's caught my eye. (Some will have news links, some won't)


A. There are no good college football teams out there today except for Alabama. Every team is capable of losing week-in and week out.  For those who say "Alabama hasn't played anyone yet" that's bull.  Texas A&M is a good team, Alabama made them look bad. When Bama plays good competition they're so far above them that they make them look poor.  I'm not suggesting that we gift wrap the CFP to Alabama, but right now they're clearly that much better than everyone else.

B. There's something ironic about Boston fans and media getting fired up over someone recording their team.  Nevermind that, according to the letter of the law, the Astros did nothing wrong. It's enough for Boston that someone else might have been caught doing something that might, possibly be sort-of, wrong.  They are the worst fan base in North America and it's not close.

C. The NBA is back. Adjust your television watching accordingly. (And your betting)

D. William Hill is lobbying for the power to not have their mistakes count against them.  The worst sports book operator in Las Vegas is now trying to take their fan-unfriendly policies that they enjoy in Europe and move them over to the US.  The field is already tilted in their favor, now they want to not have to pay any penalty for their own incompetence. You should never lay action with William Hill. Ever.

E. UNLV Football is struggling, again. Yes, there have been injuries, but every team has those. The fact is the team has not progressed much since Sanchez took over. As hard as it would be for the program it's time for a change at the top.

F. The Fraud Trial in College Basketball is a sham. It will lead to no meaningful change, and will possibly result in the NCAA further restricting athlete's ability to do well. If anything it's allowing the NCAA to profit more from the athlete's than they already are.

G. The UFC is a dysfunctional mess right now. No longer a draw for their actual fights, they're having to rely on WWE style theatrics to juice numbers.  Their days as a major player are closer to being finished than they are starting.

H. HUGE WEEK for Michigan. Beat Sparty.

I. The Raiders last years in Oakland could be BRUTAL Especially if rumors Gruden is going to blow the team up are true.

J. The Las Vegas Golden Knights won last night 4-1 at the Fortress. The team finally looked something like the fast skating, goal-scoring machine we saw last year.  If you're a Knights fan (and as you know this blog is) then this was a welcome sight.  Up next: A win streak?  Let's hope.



the FIVE coming tomorrow.....

The Shield: Week 7 Three and OUT

Some weeks the favorites roar......


1. Tennessee @ LA Chargers (-6.5) [45]

Pick: LA Chargers to COVER -6.5

The Titans have all sorts of issues right now, issues that the Chargers are going to exploit, especially at "home". (Although their home-field advantage is not the greatest). Mariota got sacked ELEVEN times last week. The Chargers have a good pass-rush.  Uh oh.

2. Minnesota (-3) @ NY Jets [47]

Pick: Minnesota to COVER -3

I've been waiting for the Vikings to have a break out game, and I think this is the slot.  The Jets have been uneven, but the Vikings defense should make things difficult for Darnold and I'm thinking Minnesota offense gets on track and they win by more than a touchdown.

3. Houston @ Jacksonville (-4.5) [42.5]

Pick: Jacksonville to COVER -4.5

I'm going back to my old strategy of fading the Houston Texans.  Yes, Jacksonville looked like crap last week but the Texans didn't look much better, and have needed fortuitous coaching calls by the other side to win all three of their games.  Considering I'm picking Tennessee to lose this game will be for the lead in the worst division in football, the AFC South.


Games in which I have a rooting interest:

LA Rams (-9.5) @ San Francisco [52.5]

The Rams are undefeated and looking like the best team in the NFL right now. San Fran overachieved against the Packers, but the Rams are much, much better than that.  It's at home and this team is trying hard, but covering here would be a huge win.

Monday, October 15, 2018

Sports Betting: Recapping the week that was. (Week 7 FIVE and Week 6 Three and OUT)

In every betting loss, or win, but especially losses, there are lessons learned. Over the weekend I learned a valuable lesson: When you notice something, don't go away from it.

NFL Three and OUT

Results: 1-2 Season Total 9-9 (.500)

I should have stuck with fading the Texans, who failed to cover yet again.

1. Carolina @ Washington (-1) [45]

Pick: Carolina to win on the ML.

Result: Carolina 17 Washington 23 - Horrid game by a Panther's defense that I thought gave them the edge.

2. Jacksonville (-3) @ Dallas [40.5]

Pick: Jacksonville to COVER -3

Result: Jacksonville 7  Dallas 40 - What in the teal HELL happened to the Jaguars?

3. Tampa Bay @ Atlanta (-3.5)  [57.5]

Pick: OVER 57.5

Result: Tampa Bay 29 Atlanta 34 - This was an easy one.  IF I would have stuck fading the Texans I would have had another winning week. Lesson learned.


College football FIVE

Results: 3-2  Season: 15-19-1 (.429)

We continue to come up JUST SHORT of a big winning week. This week started out strong (3-0) before finishing with a whimper.

1. Washington (-3) @ Oregon. [57.5]

Pick: Oregon to win on the ML

Result: Washington 27 Oregon 30 - The Ducks WANTED to mess this up, but they didn't, and in the end they put themselves in the Pac-12 driver's seat.

2. Texas Tech @ TCU (-7.5) [62]

Pick: Texas Tech to COVER +7.5

Result: Texas Tech 17 TCU 14 - HUGE win for the Red Raiders in a season where they are, surprisingly, looking like they're going to save Kingsbury's job.

3. Duke @ Georgia Tech (-3) [53.5]

Pick: Duke to COVER +3

Result: Duke 28 Georgia Tech 14 - Big win for the Blue Devils as well. They played exactly how I thought they might and beat a bad Tech team.

4. Colorado @ USC (-7) [58.5]

Pick: Colorado to COVER +7

Result: Colorado 20 USC 31 - I honestly thought the Buffs had a better than average chance of winning this game, but they got out-muscled by a USC team that's talented, but poorly coached.

5. Ole Miss (-6.5) @ Arkansas [70]

Pick: Ole Miss to COVER -6.5

Result: Ole Miss 37  Arkansas 33 - Just another weird result in a weird day of college football. So many upsets on Saturday, more on that soon, and Arkansas actually playing football for a change was one of them.


Instead of commenting on the rest of the games here I'm going to make another post about the weekend that was. It was one of those weird weekends in college football that remind us why we love the game so much.  It also made me happy to finish with a win on such an odd week.

Update on the FIVE Investment fund:  This week, according to CappedIn tracking, we swung from a slight loss on the season to a small profit.  Current balance is $68 and change to the good.  The value of ML hits y'all.  As a reminder, this is based on $100 bets that track my FIVE picks.

Wednesday, October 10, 2018

College Football: The Week Seven FIVE

On the surface this is a rather "blah" slate of games, but I have a feeling that some things get sorted out this weekend.....


On to the games....

1. Washington (-3) @ Oregon. [57.5]

Pick: Oregon to win on the ML

Autzen Stadium is not a nice place for visitors to play, and Oregon is a much better team there than on the road. Oregon's only loss was a game they should have won against Stanford, which is looking worse and worse as the weeks go by.  The same can be said for what I think is an overrated Washington team however, as their loss to Auburn continues to look less impressive as the weeks go on.  I think Oregon figures it out, and hands the Huskies a huge loss in conference.


2. Texas Tech @ TCU (-7.5) [62]

Pick: Texas Tech to COVER +7.5

This TCU team is neither as good as people thought they were or as bad as they've looked in the early season.  They still can play defense some, but their offense is suffering from growing pains.  Texas Tech still doesn't play consistent defense, but their offense is rolling and they seem to have keyed in on something with the Freshman quarterback Bowman. Tech hung in there with West Virginia, which is a much better team than the Horned Frogs.


3. Duke @ Georgia Tech (-3) [53.5]

Pick: Duke to COVER +3

Georgia Tech has a lot of tongues wagging because they hung 66 on Louisville last weekend.  Color me not impressed because this is a Cardinals team that's all but quit on their coach, and Bobby Petrino has quit on them as well.  Duke however looked good up until stumbling against Virginia Tech, and they are a quality team.  Georgia Tech has lost to every quality team they've played so far this year.


4. Colorado @ USC (-7) [58.5]

Pick: Colorado to COVER +7

I halfway expect this line to move toward USC as Saturday gets closer as more and more people try and talk their way back into USC.  But the Trojans have issues. They're a little bit like the Houston Texans in the NFL, very talented, but constantly finding themselves out-coached. They have no home-field advantage to speak of. 


5. Ole Miss (-6.5) @ Arkansas [70]

Pick: Ole Miss to COVER -6.5

Their game against aTm notwithstanding, Arkansas is a hot mess of a football team right now. Ole Miss is certainly not a world beater, they lost so much to transfers and the draft after the Freeze debacle, but I think they have enough still on the team to make it another long day in Fayetteville for the Hogs.



Other games of note:

Georgia (-7.5) @ LSU [50.5] - Had LSU taken care of business against the Gators I would have scoffed at this line, of course, it wouldn't be this big had that happened so....As it is I like the Bulldogs to roll against the Tigers in the afternoon (not evening, which is important) in Baton Rogue.

Hawai'i @ BYU (-12) [56] - I'm leaning Rainbow Warriors here. Cole MacDonald has been cleared to play and there's every sign that we're at the beginning of the Cougar swoon as the season starts to wear them down.

Texas A&M (-2) @ South Carolina [53] - An under-the-radar candidate for game of the week as these two fairly evenly matched teams (in terms of on-field talent) play an early one with some fairly important SEC positioning on the line.  I kind of like the Aggies here but wouldn't be surprised to see the Gamecocks pull a mile upset.



Games in which I have a rooting interest.

UNLV @ Utah State (-25.5) [63.5] - I think Rebel head coach Tony Sanchez is coaching for his job here. Last week's effort against New Mexico was pathetic, at best, as the team looked unprepared, unenthused and totally out-classed by a pretty bad UNM team that was operating with their third string QB.  Utah State has been really good this year, and I just don't see the Desert Rug Rats being able to keep up with them.  This will be two blowout losses in a row. If this happens it could be time.


Wisconsin @ Michigan (-7.5) [48] - I still haven't seen anything from the Wolverines that merits this big of a line against the Badgers. One thing is for sure, they had better start off better than the last few weeks or Wisconsin is going to grab a lead and just lay down on Michigan.  This is a huge game that will provide a solid indicator of both team's quality. I also think it's going to come down to a field goal or other special team's play and will be decided by way less than a touchdown.


Enjoy the games.

Tuesday, October 9, 2018

The Shield: The Week 6 Three and OUT

Jumping into the NFL pool early this week because, once again, I like the lines as they stand RIGHT NOW.  I'm very doubtful you'll find anything close to these on Sunday....

1. Carolina @ Washington (-1) [45]

Pick: Carolina to win on the ML.

Coming off a Monday Night thrashing the Washington Politicians are smarting. They got shellacked by the Saints and I don't see that defense doing any better of a job against Carolina. The Panthers are missing Greg Olsen but almost everyone else of note are healthy and should play. The Politicians are missing oft-injured WR Josh Doctson and that really hurts their offense. I like Carolina to snag a road win here against a member of the renewed NFC Least division.


2. Jacksonville (-3) @ Dallas [40.5]

Pick: Jacksonville to COVER -3

The Cowboys are a dysfunctional mess right now offensively, while Jacksonville had a rough week last week against what might be the AFC's best team in the Kansas City Chiefs (we'll find out this weekend) they've largely taken care of business except in a division game against the Titans.  I'd feel better about this if D.J. Hayden and Leonard Fournette could play, but my numbers still have Jacksonville beating the Cowboys be a TD even if they don't.


3. Tampa Bay @ Atlanta (-3.5)  [57.5]

Pick: OVER 57.5

Consider these numbers.  In their first 5 games of the season Tampa Bay's defense has surrendered 25, 40, 21, 30 & 48 points,  In their first 5 games Atlanta's defense has surrendered 18, 24, 43, 37 & 41.  These are no longer aberrations, they're now trends. Neither of these teams plays anything resembling NFL quality defense and even with questionable QB Jameis Winston starting in this one I think it hits the over somewhere shortly after halftime.



The Game in which I have a rooting interest:

San Francisco @ Green Bay (-9.5) [46.5]

As I stated a couple of weeks ago, all hope is lost for the Niners this season. We saw last week just how bad things are when the team got beaten by the lowly Cardinals. Yes, Green Bay is beat up, they always are, but there's nothing in the Niners recent history that suggest they're going to be able to even slow down Aaron Rodgers, much less stop him.  I think you'll be able to turn this game off at halftime because a blowout is coming.  On the bright side, Ed Oliver should be there next year when the Niners are drafting.


Good luck however you choose to play.

Monday, October 8, 2018

Recapping the weekend that was. Week 6 in College football & Week 5 for the NFL

Late Friday evening I thought: "Hey, I'm finally getting a read on this season."

Then Saturday happened, and all of my momentum got sucked out of the window.  Final tally?  2-3 on the FIVE 2-1 on the NFL Three & Out. Still, things could have been worse.....

The FIVE: 2-3 (12-17-1 Season tally [.400])

1. Utah State @ BYU (-2.5) [54]

Pick: Utah State to WIN on the ML.


Final Score: Utah State 45 BYU 20 - I think we've hit the point where BYU's tough schedule starts affecting them It also doesn't help the Cougars that Utah State is much better than a lot of us thought going into the season.

2. Eastern Michigan @ Western Michigan (-4.5) [57]

Pick: Eastern Michigan to COVER +4.5


Final Score: Eastern Michigan 24 Western Michigan 27 - At this point I was starting to think I was going to get the weekend that I needed. Either 4-1 or 5-0, but the football gods had different ideas....

3. East Carolina @ Temple (-11) [52.5]

Pick: East Carolina to COVER -11


Final Score: East Carolina 6 Temple 49 - This was a horrid miss. I honestly thought that ECU had enough to keep it close. Clearly I thought wrong.

4. LSU (-2.5) @ Florida [43.5]

Pick: LSU to COVER -2.5


Final Score: LSU 19 Florida 27 - My luck picking road teams to win is horrid right now. LSU has looked great up until this point and Florida has looked very "Meh". Total switch from trends as the Tigers seemingly forgot how to play defense.  Frustrating result.

5. Auburn (-3.5) @ Mississippi State [42]

Pick: Auburn to COVER -3.5


Final Score: Auburn 9 Mississippi State 23 - Yet another road favorite that laid an egg. It's pretty clear that I overrated Auburn in my analysis. It's time to knock them down a few pegs, especially in my ratings for their offense.


Thoughts on games in which I had a rooting interest:

New Mexico @ UNLV (-9.5) [63.5]

Final Score: New Mexico 50 UNLV 14 - We knew it was going to be tough without QB Armani Rodgers, but the level of domination that a pretty bad Lobos team showed against the Rebels was shocking. UNLV looked unprepared, unenthused and they are a mess right now. They have a better-than-expected Utah State team up next.  They might lose by 60 if they don't get things straight.  After this game I think it's time to put an end to the Tony Sanchez experiment.  It was that bad.

Maryland @ Michigan (-17.5) [48]

Final Score: Maryland 21 Michigan 42 - The team started off slowly, again, but picked it up in the second half and walked away with what looks to be, on paper, an easy win.  But it was HARD to win this game. Too hard considering the talent advantage that Michigan currently enjoys over the Terrapins. With Wisconsin coming up next week (AT Camp Randall) the team had better figure this out of it's going to be a Looooong season.



The Week 5 NFL Three & Out.

Weekend Results: 2-1 (8-7 season tally [.53333])

1. Atlanta @ Pittsburgh (-3) [57.5]

Pick: OVER 57.5


Final Result: Atlanta 17 Pittsburgh 41 - It didn't go over by much, but it DID go over and that's all that matters. Signs here that Pittsburgh is finally starting to get it together.

2. Denver @ NY Jets (-2.5) [43]

Pick: Denver to win on the ML


Final Result: Denver 16 New York Jets 34 - I have no explanation for this one. Denver made the Jets look competent on offense and that's hard to do. Case Keenum is reverting to his mean for Denver this year. He's a competent backup QB and could have a long career in that role. As a starter however he just can't get the job done.

3. Dallas @ Houston (-3.5) [45.5]

Pick: Dallas to COVER +3.5


Final Result: Dallas 16 Houston 19 - This Sunday Night game set football back about 30 years. It was a horrid game between two very bad teams. Fortunately for both of them they're in crap divisions which means that they both still have a path to winning the division and getting in to the playoffs. That this game went to overtime is a sign that all of us have done something very wrong. We need to confess our sins so that a monstrosity on this level is never seen again.

Despite the rough record my "FIVE Investment fund" is only tallied at a loss of around $75 so far this season. I get it, that's not great, but it could have been a lot worse.  What's helped me financially is the selection of a few money line upsets at pretty good odds.

For the NFL I'm up around $200 and running ahead of the VIG due again to some moneyline picks.

If I can just get some momentum built for college football we should be able to turn this around and start showing a consistent profit.

On to next week then.

Thursday, October 4, 2018

College Football: The Week 6 FIVE

Low-key fun slate of games this week, potentially. Not a lot of ranked on ranked match-ups but several games on the slate that could generate an upset or three.  One thing is for sure, we're going to find out an awful lot about several teams that we're not entirely sure about....

1. Utah State @ BYU (-2.5) [54]

Pick: Utah State to WIN on the ML.

BYU got exposed a little last weekend and Utah State has started off the season with a much better offense than any of us thought. Granted, the Aggies have beaten New Mexico State, Tennessee Tech and Air Force but BYU's only good win is the shocker over Wisconsin, other than that they've got two losses, one against a not-very-good Cal team and McNeese State. BYU is always tough at home, but I think the Aggies speed on offense gets to them.  You might also take the over here.


2. Eastern Michigan @ Western Michigan (-4.5) [57]

Pick: Eastern Michigan to COVER +4.5

One thing we KNOW about Eastern Michigan, they like to play in close games. They're 1-3 with a 1-point win, a 7-point loss and two 3-point losses. This is a team that keeps it close. Western Michigan is 3-1 yes, but their only blowout wins came against Delaware State and Georgia State, two pretty terrible teams.  They only beat Miami (OH) by one.  And I think Eastern Michigan is better than the Red Hawks.


3. East Carolina @ Temple (-11) [52.5]

Pick: East Carolina to COVER -11

The Pirates are 2-1 with a big win over North Carolina, a close win against Old Dominion, and a 7 point loss to South Florida. Temple is 2-2, losing to Buffalo and Boston College while beating Maryland and Tulsa. The important bit here is that ECU's loss to S Florida was on the road. They go on the road here and taking Temple to cover is thinking that this Temple team is better than USF.  I don't see it. I think this is a close game decided by a FG or even less.


4. LSU (-2.5) @ Florida [43.5]

Pick: LSU to COVER -2.5

I made the mistake of underestimating the Tigers in last week one against Miami. It's a mistake that I'm loathe to repeat.  I think Florida is going to have issues scoring against LSU's defense, and I think LSU has finally figured it out on offense and is going to roll in this game. I think the Tigers score early and often.


5. Auburn (-3.5) @ Mississippi State [42]

Pick: Auburn to COVER -3.5

Auburn's 1-point loss to LSU is starting to look better and better as time passes, while Mississippi's loss to Kentucky can be viewed the same way. I think the Bulldog's loss to Florida is going to look worse after this weekend however.  At some point this season Jarrett Stidham is going to figure things out for the Tigers and I think this just might be the week. Don't be surprised if this game, which has all the earmarks of a traditional SEC bad-offense game, hits the over in the 3rd quarter.



Other Games of note:

Kentucky @ Texas A&M (-5.5) [50.5] - With wins over Florida, South Carolina and Mississippi State I think it's fair to say that the Wildcats are pretty good. RB Benny Snell has increased his NFL draft stock exponentially this year. The Aggies two losses are against two of the Nation's best teams in Clemson (close) and Alabama (blowout) so there's nothing to be ashamed of there. I also think you can excuse the Arkansas game because the Aggies were nursing a case of the Tide flu. It happens. The biggest question in this game is whether or not Snell can get free against an Aggie defense that's only surrendering 85 yards per game rushing. If not, that's a problem, because UK QB Terry Wilson has only thrown for 2 TD's with 5 INT's on his record.


UT-Austin @ Oklahoma (-8) [61.5] - The Red River Shootout. Historic. Rivalry. Game. For all of the "Texas is BACK" talk (unless they're playing Maryland) the Longhorns will never really be back until they consistently compete against the Sooners.  Right now OU looks to be the much better team on paper. But the Sooners are not without questions, especially on defense.  Texas likes to run the ball and OU has proven susceptible to the run. The Longhorns on offense can go dormant however. It will be interesting to see how UT-Austin deals with Kyler Murray. Still, this is a big game and UT-Austin coach Tom Herman has shown a propensity for prepping his team well in big games. It's the "other" games where they tend to look like crap.


Northwestern @ Michigan State (-10.5) [43] - I can't find anything in the Spartan's season so far that convinces me they're capable of beating Northwestern by more than a TD. QB Brian Lewerke has been spotty at best, and RB LJ Scott is a powerful back, but not shifty at all and possesses little burst. This seems to play in to the strengths of the Wildcat defense.  This could be an old fashioned B1G SLOW game with few points that comes down to the kicking game. In other words, a snooze-fest.


Notre Dame (-6) @ Virginia Tech [56.5] - Irish hearts are giddy, full of talk of running the table and finally taking their Divinely granted slot in the CFP.  But I think it would be a mistake to overlook the Hokies here.  This is a night game in Blacksburg. Enter Sandman will be pumping up the crowd and, if you draw a line through the ODU debacle, Va Tech has not looked all that bad.  Notre Dame under Brian Kelley has a horrible record on the road against ranked opponents. I might take a stab at the upset here, Hokies to pull the upset on the ML.  But I'm not confident enough in the lean to put it in my FIVE.


Navy (-3) @ Air Force [48] - The first game that affects the winner of the Commander-in-Chief's trophy, and a game that pits two triple-option offenses against one another.  While I think the tide has shifted and Army is currently the best of the service academy teams, it's always special when these schools play one another.  Look for a low scoring affair here, but I think Navy has more talent than Air Force, and pulls out a win that's slightly to the North of the spread.



Games in which I have a rooting interest: (Reminder, I never bet games in which I have a rooting interest)

New Mexico @ UNLV (-9.5) [63.5]

With Desert Rug Rats QB Armani Rodgers sidelined for six weeks with a torn Plantiar (ouch) on his foot it's time to see whether or not head coach Tony Sanchez has the depth at the position to keep this team on track for a bowl. Enter Cal transfer (and 4-star recruit) Max Gilliam who should improve the passing game, but won't have the freakish athleticism that Rodgers had. Fortunately the Rebels still can rely on RB Lexington Thomas, and they're facing a Lobos team that's struggling in almost every facet of the game, and will be relying on their 3rd-string QB.  If UNLV rolls, then the bowl dream is still very much alive.  Bonus: The Game is played at the Big Roulette Table in Las Vegas.


Maryland @ Michigan (-17.5) [48]

Against Northwestern Michigan started out slowly, came back late and eeked out a 20-17 win. Maryland is a team that seemingly only plays good football against UT-Austin, who is still in turmoil over the death of a teammate due to heat exhaustion and whose head coach DJ Durkin is looking more and more likely to lose his job every day. IF Michigan doesn't cover here then I'm thinking the seat for Harbaugh starts warming up. These are games a good team should dominate. I'm still not sold on the idea that Michigan is fielding a really good team yet.  Show me Wolverines, please.


Go Blue! and enjoy the games.

Tuesday, October 2, 2018

The Shield: The Week 5 Three and OUT

Last week was a small step back as I try to get some traction this season. But that's the way it's going right now. One step forward, one step back.  Still, I'm 6-6 in the new(ish) season and I feel like I'm starting to get a better idea of what teams are.  I've tweaked my formulas to allow for the explosion of offense that we're seeing from new teams, as well as the new rules which make playing defense all but impossible, so I'm hoping to finally grab momentum by the horns......

If you've been following along until this point....why?  I'm kidding, of course, hopefully you are following along because I'm making this enjoyable, whether or not I'm winning.  I'm not a professional gambler, nor do I play one on TV.  Hell, I didn't even stay at a Holiday Inn last night.

All lines are as accurate as I can find them AT THE TIME OF PUBLICATION.  Just like last week. If you procrastinate, you probably won't find these lines anywhere.

To the games....

1. Atlanta @ Pittsburgh (-3) [57.5]

Pick: OVER 57.5

After only scoring 12 points against the Eagles Atlanta's offense has done the following:  31 points against the Panthers (win), 37 points against the Saints (loss) and 36 points against the Bengals (loss). Of course, they also gave up 24, 43 & 37. Pittsburgh has scored 21, 37, 30 & 14 against the Browns, Chiefs, Buccaneers & Ravens in order. They also gave up 21, 42, 27 & 46.  That's not good for under bettors if you ask me.  The play here is the over, and let these two middling, problem-filled teams battle it out for whoever wins.  That's the glorious thing about sports betting. As long as they score a ton of points we don't care.

2. Denver @ NY Jets (-2.5) [43]

Pick: Denver to win on the ML

I had to do a double take on this line to make sure it was accurate. I mean yes, the Jets played a good opening game against Detroit but have not looked good since then. While Denver just lost to a Kansas City team that might be the best in the AFC right now.  I've a feeling if you don't get on this line soon it will go the way of the Dodo pretty quickly.  Denver's defense is going to make a mess of the Jets offense. I don't foresee this one being very close.  There's a lot of optimism by Jets fans right now however which might explain why the lines are skewed as the casinos try and limit exposure.

3. Dallas @ Houston (-3.5) [45.5]

Pick: Dallas to COVER +3.5

I'd like to pick Dallas on the ML here but I just don't have enough faith in the Cowboys to do so. Yes, the Cowboys are 2-2 but the Houston Texans are butt.  They're 1-3 and by all rights should be either 0-4 or 0-3-1 if Frank Reich didn't blow it on a 4th and 4 play call (but not the decision to go for it IMO) near the end of OT.  It still took an amazing catch by DeAndre Hopkins to pull the Texans fat out of the fire.  Along with Arizona and the Bills I think Texas is among the NFL's bottom feeders. I will fade this team as a favorite until they prove me wrong.


Games in which I have a rooting interest:

Arizona @ San Francisco (-4) [41]

The 49ers looked better than I expected last Sunday against the Chargers and have not really been too far out of any game this season. Yes, yes, yes, they are 1-3 and down to their backup running back and quarterback but they've been playing OK.  The Cardinals did show some fight last week only losing to the Seahawks 20-17, prior to that they gave the Chicago Bears all they could handle in a loss.  I think this is a close game, and I might be tempted to take the under as I don't see either offense doing all that much.


Act fast kids, these offers are going fast.

Enjoy the games.

Monday, October 1, 2018

1 October



Hard to believe it's been a year since the tragic, horrific shootings that occurred in the City we know and Love.

58 people killed, even more wounded, hundreds of thousands of lives irrevocably impacted.

My first trip back to Vegas, post 1October was in the November following. You could feel the stress on the city's psyche, almost smell it in the air like a casino's scent. It was awful, it was horrific. When we visited the window had been replaced at Mandalay Bay, but the site of the Route 91 Harvest Festival was still cordoned off.

We did not know then, and we really don't know now what drove a madman (I will not publish his name) to end 58 lives, to sit up in his elevated position and fire, repeatedly, into a group of strangers that were just trying to have a good time.....

Which is why all of us who go to Vegas go to Vegas. We want to have a good time.

In the year that has passed there have been stunning tributes across the city, possibly none more moving than the Vegas Golden Knights first home-game win that was, for once when a sports team was involved, truly all about the tragedy. the sponsor's names were removed form the boards, #VegasStrong plastered where "Las Vegas Subaru" or other adds used to be. Derek Engelland said some words, and the city started rebuilding. Slowly, at first, but rebuilding nonetheless.

Yes, the corporations did what corporations do. Some tried to profit off of the tragedy by putting their corporate name and logo on #VegasStrong shirts while others were proud it wasn't "their" casino that the shooter shot from.  What they failed to realize is that the real beauty of Vegas isn't the casinos, it's not the faux luxury that hotels, spas and restaurants offer, it certainly wasn't their 3-zero roulette wheels or the 6/5 blackjack that allowed them to pay themselves bigger bonuses.

The true beauty of Las Vegas can be found in the people that live and work there, driving you to the hotels from the airport, taking your bags to the room, checking you in at the hotels, pouring your drinks, taking your food orders, dealing you the cards, spinning the wheels and listening, patiently in most cases, to your bad-beat stories.

When you ask yourself "Why do I like Vegas so much" realize that it's not because of what's there, it's because of WHO IS there. You can find casinos almost everywhere these days, most with better odds than the casinos on the Las Vegas Strip. That, and excessive fees, are problems to discuss later.

Today is about the residents, and a city, who have formed an identity over the last year that's not only better, it's STRONGER.

#VegasStronger if you will.

The Weekend in Football: Recapping Week 5 in College and Week 4 in the NFL

A busy week at work means a dual recap post this week.  Let's get the bad out of the way first.....

The Week 4 Three & Out.

Final record: 1-2   Season total: 6-6 (.500)

I continued my up and down run on NFL games. Making one horrid pick, one pick that had a chance of playing out and one pick that JUST made it over the line. Here's a recap:

1. Miami @ New England (-7) [47.5]

Pick: Miami to cover +7

Final score:  Miami 7 New England 38. (Loss)

I wasn't the only person who bought into Miami this week, nor was I not the only person who thought New England's problems were a little worse than advertised. Yes, all the touts "knew" that New England was going to bounce back but the truth is no one really did.  I wouldn't go so far as to say the Patriots are "fixed" after one home blowout, but they did look much more like their old selves than that had in previous weeks.

2. Houston @ Indianapolis (-1) [47]

Pick: Indianapolis to cover -1

Final Score:  Texans 37 Indianapolis 34 (Loss)

In what was quite possibly the most boring high-scoring game you will ever see, the Texans played for the tie at the end, Indianapolis played for the win and the Texans won because the Colts called a weird play on 4th and 4.  Maybe Frank Reich was telling Penn State "Hold my beer" when he called a 5 yard curl pass?  I don't know. What I do know is that fading the Texans is probably still going to be more profitable than betting with them going forward.

3. New Orleans (-3.5) @ NY Giants [50]

Pick: OVER 50

Final Score: Saints 33 Giants 18 (Win)

If you waited on this line, and I told you not to wait, then you missed this game, because it moved up to 52.5 by kick-off.  BUT, if you grabbed it early, you got a one point win. I underestimated just how bad the Giants offense was, which made this closer than it should have been in the end. There are some truly bad teams in the NFL, the Giants are one of them.


The Week 5 FIVE 

Final Record: 3-2   Season Total: 9-15-1 (.360)

Coming off last weekend's awful, horrendous, no good, very bad picks I needed a win to right the ship.  The ship is righted, and it's time to get some consistency. Remember, this is a season-long endeavor. Unlike what touts tell you, that you're going to "crush the books", the reality is everyone has good weekends and bad weekends. When you pull a stinker as I did early in the season it really magnifies it in your overall total.  On the financial front, since I've remembered to track these things on CappedIn the past two weeks, I'm actually profitable (by around $25) in total despite last week's washout.

Let's recap.

1. UT-Austin (-9) @ Kansas State [48]

Pick: UT-Austin to COVER -9

Final Score: UT-Austin 19 Kansas State 14 (Loss)

Look, I get it, next week is the Red River Shootout and UT-Austin was probably looking ahead a little. If that's the case however then shame on Tom Herman and his coaching staff who should understand the Longhorn's history in Manhattan.

2. Nevada @ Air Force (-6.5) [68]

Pick:  Nevada to COVER +6.5

Final Score: Nevada 28 Air Force 25 (Win)

I wish I would have had the faith in the Wolfpack to pull the trigger on the ML upset but the numbers just didn't add up.  That said, I thought looking at the game that the two teams were awfully similar and that it was a FG type game and that thinking proved correct. In the end, Air Force played terribly for them and that's something all the numbers in the world won't predict.

3. Oregon (-2.5) @ California [59]

Pick: Oregon to COVER -2.5

Final Score: Oregon 42 California 24 (Win)

I thought the Bears being ranked #24 was overrating them and I still think Oregon is a contender for the PAC-12 Championship.  Granted, Stanford has to stumble twice now but the Ducks are a good team that just crapped the bed last week. Oregon's offense is rolling with Herbert pulling the trigger, while the Bears are going to make a bowl at least, which is an improvement for them over recent form.

4. Utah (-1.5) @Washington State [59]

Pick: Washington State to WIN on the ML

Final Score: Utah 24 Washington State 28 (Win)

I went back to the Mike Leach well again this week, despite being burned by them last week, and they responded with possibly the most Mike Leach win ever, a win with ZERO yards rushing.  Utah has a stiff defense but some of that is smoke, mirrors, and playing a relatively weak non-conference schedule. Still, the Utes are one of those teams that you play, and then spend the next couple of weeks wishing you hadn't.  

5. Stanford @ Notre Dame (-5.5) [54]

Pick: Stanford to COVER +5.5

Final Score: Stanford 17 Notre Dame 38 (Loss)

With this new QB, and a passing game suddenly, I'm going to have to re-evaluate how I rank ND's offense going forward, and also whether or not Bryce Love for the Cardinal is truly healthy. This was a head-scratcher to me. Not that ND won, but how convincingly they accomplished the win. Looking at the schedule going forward the Irish are going to have to TRY to miss-out on the CFP playoff now.



And that's that. A little better this week in college, still middling around on the NFL.  We'll be back Wednesday and Thursday with all new picks for your fading enjoyment.  

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