Last week was a small step back as I try to get some traction this season. But that's the way it's going right now. One step forward, one step back. Still, I'm 6-6 in the new(ish) season and I feel like I'm starting to get a better idea of what teams are. I've tweaked my formulas to allow for the explosion of offense that we're seeing from new teams, as well as the new rules which make playing defense all but impossible, so I'm hoping to finally grab momentum by the horns......
If you've been following along until this point....why? I'm kidding, of course, hopefully you are following along because I'm making this enjoyable, whether or not I'm winning. I'm not a professional gambler, nor do I play one on TV. Hell, I didn't even stay at a Holiday Inn last night.
All lines are as accurate as I can find them AT THE TIME OF PUBLICATION. Just like last week. If you procrastinate, you probably won't find these lines anywhere.
To the games....
1. Atlanta @ Pittsburgh (-3) [57.5]
Pick: OVER 57.5
After only scoring 12 points against the Eagles Atlanta's offense has done the following: 31 points against the Panthers (win), 37 points against the Saints (loss) and 36 points against the Bengals (loss). Of course, they also gave up 24, 43 & 37. Pittsburgh has scored 21, 37, 30 & 14 against the Browns, Chiefs, Buccaneers & Ravens in order. They also gave up 21, 42, 27 & 46. That's not good for under bettors if you ask me. The play here is the over, and let these two middling, problem-filled teams battle it out for whoever wins. That's the glorious thing about sports betting. As long as they score a ton of points we don't care.
2. Denver @ NY Jets (-2.5) [43]
Pick: Denver to win on the ML
I had to do a double take on this line to make sure it was accurate. I mean yes, the Jets played a good opening game against Detroit but have not looked good since then. While Denver just lost to a Kansas City team that might be the best in the AFC right now. I've a feeling if you don't get on this line soon it will go the way of the Dodo pretty quickly. Denver's defense is going to make a mess of the Jets offense. I don't foresee this one being very close. There's a lot of optimism by Jets fans right now however which might explain why the lines are skewed as the casinos try and limit exposure.
3. Dallas @ Houston (-3.5) [45.5]
Pick: Dallas to COVER +3.5
I'd like to pick Dallas on the ML here but I just don't have enough faith in the Cowboys to do so. Yes, the Cowboys are 2-2 but the Houston Texans are butt. They're 1-3 and by all rights should be either 0-4 or 0-3-1 if Frank Reich didn't blow it on a 4th and 4 play call (but not the decision to go for it IMO) near the end of OT. It still took an amazing catch by DeAndre Hopkins to pull the Texans fat out of the fire. Along with Arizona and the Bills I think Texas is among the NFL's bottom feeders. I will fade this team as a favorite until they prove me wrong.
Games in which I have a rooting interest:
Arizona @ San Francisco (-4) [41]
The 49ers looked better than I expected last Sunday against the Chargers and have not really been too far out of any game this season. Yes, yes, yes, they are 1-3 and down to their backup running back and quarterback but they've been playing OK. The Cardinals did show some fight last week only losing to the Seahawks 20-17, prior to that they gave the Chicago Bears all they could handle in a loss. I think this is a close game, and I might be tempted to take the under as I don't see either offense doing all that much.
Act fast kids, these offers are going fast.
Enjoy the games.
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