Low-key fun slate of games this week, potentially. Not a lot of ranked on ranked match-ups but several games on the slate that could generate an upset or three. One thing is for sure, we're going to find out an awful lot about several teams that we're not entirely sure about....
1. Utah State @ BYU (-2.5) [54]
Pick: Utah State to WIN on the ML.
BYU got exposed a little last weekend and Utah State has started off the season with a much better offense than any of us thought. Granted, the Aggies have beaten New Mexico State, Tennessee Tech and Air Force but BYU's only good win is the shocker over Wisconsin, other than that they've got two losses, one against a not-very-good Cal team and McNeese State. BYU is always tough at home, but I think the Aggies speed on offense gets to them. You might also take the over here.
2. Eastern Michigan @ Western Michigan (-4.5) [57]
Pick: Eastern Michigan to COVER +4.5
One thing we KNOW about Eastern Michigan, they like to play in close games. They're 1-3 with a 1-point win, a 7-point loss and two 3-point losses. This is a team that keeps it close. Western Michigan is 3-1 yes, but their only blowout wins came against Delaware State and Georgia State, two pretty terrible teams. They only beat Miami (OH) by one. And I think Eastern Michigan is better than the Red Hawks.
3. East Carolina @ Temple (-11) [52.5]
Pick: East Carolina to COVER -11
The Pirates are 2-1 with a big win over North Carolina, a close win against Old Dominion, and a 7 point loss to South Florida. Temple is 2-2, losing to Buffalo and Boston College while beating Maryland and Tulsa. The important bit here is that ECU's loss to S Florida was on the road. They go on the road here and taking Temple to cover is thinking that this Temple team is better than USF. I don't see it. I think this is a close game decided by a FG or even less.
4. LSU (-2.5) @ Florida [43.5]
Pick: LSU to COVER -2.5
I made the mistake of underestimating the Tigers in last week one against Miami. It's a mistake that I'm loathe to repeat. I think Florida is going to have issues scoring against LSU's defense, and I think LSU has finally figured it out on offense and is going to roll in this game. I think the Tigers score early and often.
5. Auburn (-3.5) @ Mississippi State [42]
Pick: Auburn to COVER -3.5
Auburn's 1-point loss to LSU is starting to look better and better as time passes, while Mississippi's loss to Kentucky can be viewed the same way. I think the Bulldog's loss to Florida is going to look worse after this weekend however. At some point this season Jarrett Stidham is going to figure things out for the Tigers and I think this just might be the week. Don't be surprised if this game, which has all the earmarks of a traditional SEC bad-offense game, hits the over in the 3rd quarter.
Other Games of note:
Kentucky @ Texas A&M (-5.5) [50.5] - With wins over Florida, South Carolina and Mississippi State I think it's fair to say that the Wildcats are pretty good. RB Benny Snell has increased his NFL draft stock exponentially this year. The Aggies two losses are against two of the Nation's best teams in Clemson (close) and Alabama (blowout) so there's nothing to be ashamed of there. I also think you can excuse the Arkansas game because the Aggies were nursing a case of the Tide flu. It happens. The biggest question in this game is whether or not Snell can get free against an Aggie defense that's only surrendering 85 yards per game rushing. If not, that's a problem, because UK QB Terry Wilson has only thrown for 2 TD's with 5 INT's on his record.
UT-Austin @ Oklahoma (-8) [61.5] - The Red River Shootout. Historic. Rivalry. Game. For all of the "Texas is BACK" talk (unless they're playing Maryland) the Longhorns will never really be back until they consistently compete against the Sooners. Right now OU looks to be the much better team on paper. But the Sooners are not without questions, especially on defense. Texas likes to run the ball and OU has proven susceptible to the run. The Longhorns on offense can go dormant however. It will be interesting to see how UT-Austin deals with Kyler Murray. Still, this is a big game and UT-Austin coach Tom Herman has shown a propensity for prepping his team well in big games. It's the "other" games where they tend to look like crap.
Northwestern @ Michigan State (-10.5) [43] - I can't find anything in the Spartan's season so far that convinces me they're capable of beating Northwestern by more than a TD. QB Brian Lewerke has been spotty at best, and RB LJ Scott is a powerful back, but not shifty at all and possesses little burst. This seems to play in to the strengths of the Wildcat defense. This could be an old fashioned B1G SLOW game with few points that comes down to the kicking game. In other words, a snooze-fest.
Notre Dame (-6) @ Virginia Tech [56.5] - Irish hearts are giddy, full of talk of running the table and finally taking their Divinely granted slot in the CFP. But I think it would be a mistake to overlook the Hokies here. This is a night game in Blacksburg. Enter Sandman will be pumping up the crowd and, if you draw a line through the ODU debacle, Va Tech has not looked all that bad. Notre Dame under Brian Kelley has a horrible record on the road against ranked opponents. I might take a stab at the upset here, Hokies to pull the upset on the ML. But I'm not confident enough in the lean to put it in my FIVE.
Navy (-3) @ Air Force [48] - The first game that affects the winner of the Commander-in-Chief's trophy, and a game that pits two triple-option offenses against one another. While I think the tide has shifted and Army is currently the best of the service academy teams, it's always special when these schools play one another. Look for a low scoring affair here, but I think Navy has more talent than Air Force, and pulls out a win that's slightly to the North of the spread.
Games in which I have a rooting interest: (Reminder, I never bet games in which I have a rooting interest)
New Mexico @ UNLV (-9.5) [63.5]
With Desert Rug Rats QB Armani Rodgers sidelined for six weeks with a torn Plantiar (ouch) on his foot it's time to see whether or not head coach Tony Sanchez has the depth at the position to keep this team on track for a bowl. Enter Cal transfer (and 4-star recruit) Max Gilliam who should improve the passing game, but won't have the freakish athleticism that Rodgers had. Fortunately the Rebels still can rely on RB Lexington Thomas, and they're facing a Lobos team that's struggling in almost every facet of the game, and will be relying on their 3rd-string QB. If UNLV rolls, then the bowl dream is still very much alive. Bonus: The Game is played at the Big Roulette Table in Las Vegas.
Maryland @ Michigan (-17.5) [48]
Against Northwestern Michigan started out slowly, came back late and eeked out a 20-17 win. Maryland is a team that seemingly only plays good football against UT-Austin, who is still in turmoil over the death of a teammate due to heat exhaustion and whose head coach DJ Durkin is looking more and more likely to lose his job every day. IF Michigan doesn't cover here then I'm thinking the seat for Harbaugh starts warming up. These are games a good team should dominate. I'm still not sold on the idea that Michigan is fielding a really good team yet. Show me Wolverines, please.
Go Blue! and enjoy the games.
No comments:
Post a Comment