The Weekend in Football: Recapping Week 5 in College and Week 4 in the NFL

A busy week at work means a dual recap post this week.  Let's get the bad out of the way first.....

The Week 4 Three & Out.

Final record: 1-2   Season total: 6-6 (.500)

I continued my up and down run on NFL games. Making one horrid pick, one pick that had a chance of playing out and one pick that JUST made it over the line. Here's a recap:

1. Miami @ New England (-7) [47.5]

Pick: Miami to cover +7

Final score:  Miami 7 New England 38. (Loss)

I wasn't the only person who bought into Miami this week, nor was I not the only person who thought New England's problems were a little worse than advertised. Yes, all the touts "knew" that New England was going to bounce back but the truth is no one really did.  I wouldn't go so far as to say the Patriots are "fixed" after one home blowout, but they did look much more like their old selves than that had in previous weeks.

2. Houston @ Indianapolis (-1) [47]

Pick: Indianapolis to cover -1

Final Score:  Texans 37 Indianapolis 34 (Loss)

In what was quite possibly the most boring high-scoring game you will ever see, the Texans played for the tie at the end, Indianapolis played for the win and the Texans won because the Colts called a weird play on 4th and 4.  Maybe Frank Reich was telling Penn State "Hold my beer" when he called a 5 yard curl pass?  I don't know. What I do know is that fading the Texans is probably still going to be more profitable than betting with them going forward.

3. New Orleans (-3.5) @ NY Giants [50]

Pick: OVER 50

Final Score: Saints 33 Giants 18 (Win)

If you waited on this line, and I told you not to wait, then you missed this game, because it moved up to 52.5 by kick-off.  BUT, if you grabbed it early, you got a one point win. I underestimated just how bad the Giants offense was, which made this closer than it should have been in the end. There are some truly bad teams in the NFL, the Giants are one of them.


The Week 5 FIVE 

Final Record: 3-2   Season Total: 9-15-1 (.360)

Coming off last weekend's awful, horrendous, no good, very bad picks I needed a win to right the ship.  The ship is righted, and it's time to get some consistency. Remember, this is a season-long endeavor. Unlike what touts tell you, that you're going to "crush the books", the reality is everyone has good weekends and bad weekends. When you pull a stinker as I did early in the season it really magnifies it in your overall total.  On the financial front, since I've remembered to track these things on CappedIn the past two weeks, I'm actually profitable (by around $25) in total despite last week's washout.

Let's recap.

1. UT-Austin (-9) @ Kansas State [48]

Pick: UT-Austin to COVER -9

Final Score: UT-Austin 19 Kansas State 14 (Loss)

Look, I get it, next week is the Red River Shootout and UT-Austin was probably looking ahead a little. If that's the case however then shame on Tom Herman and his coaching staff who should understand the Longhorn's history in Manhattan.

2. Nevada @ Air Force (-6.5) [68]

Pick:  Nevada to COVER +6.5

Final Score: Nevada 28 Air Force 25 (Win)

I wish I would have had the faith in the Wolfpack to pull the trigger on the ML upset but the numbers just didn't add up.  That said, I thought looking at the game that the two teams were awfully similar and that it was a FG type game and that thinking proved correct. In the end, Air Force played terribly for them and that's something all the numbers in the world won't predict.

3. Oregon (-2.5) @ California [59]

Pick: Oregon to COVER -2.5

Final Score: Oregon 42 California 24 (Win)

I thought the Bears being ranked #24 was overrating them and I still think Oregon is a contender for the PAC-12 Championship.  Granted, Stanford has to stumble twice now but the Ducks are a good team that just crapped the bed last week. Oregon's offense is rolling with Herbert pulling the trigger, while the Bears are going to make a bowl at least, which is an improvement for them over recent form.

4. Utah (-1.5) @Washington State [59]

Pick: Washington State to WIN on the ML

Final Score: Utah 24 Washington State 28 (Win)

I went back to the Mike Leach well again this week, despite being burned by them last week, and they responded with possibly the most Mike Leach win ever, a win with ZERO yards rushing.  Utah has a stiff defense but some of that is smoke, mirrors, and playing a relatively weak non-conference schedule. Still, the Utes are one of those teams that you play, and then spend the next couple of weeks wishing you hadn't.  

5. Stanford @ Notre Dame (-5.5) [54]

Pick: Stanford to COVER +5.5

Final Score: Stanford 17 Notre Dame 38 (Loss)

With this new QB, and a passing game suddenly, I'm going to have to re-evaluate how I rank ND's offense going forward, and also whether or not Bryce Love for the Cardinal is truly healthy. This was a head-scratcher to me. Not that ND won, but how convincingly they accomplished the win. Looking at the schedule going forward the Irish are going to have to TRY to miss-out on the CFP playoff now.



And that's that. A little better this week in college, still middling around on the NFL.  We'll be back Wednesday and Thursday with all new picks for your fading enjoyment.