College Football: The Week 5 FIVE

Ready for a bounce-back after last week's atrocity.

1. UT-Austin (-9) @ Kansas State [48]

Pick: UT-Austin to COVER -9

Old rules: Don't ever bet against K-State at home.
New Rules: This is a BAD K-State team that UT-Austin should have little trouble putting away by more than ten points.  It's not that I'm buying into UT-Austin, it's that I'm selling the Wildcats.  The OVER is also looking mighty fine.

2. Nevada @ Air Force (-6.5) [68]

Pick:  Nevada to COVER +6.5

In a battle between two 1-2 teams, neither of whom have beaten anyone of note, I think we find ourselves with a fairly even match-up here. Look for a high-scoring back and forth game that's decided by less than a field goal either way.

3. Oregon (-2.5) @ California [59]

Pick: Oregon to COVER -2.5

Last week was a horrid beat against Stanford (more on them later) while Cal is 3-0 and does boast an increasingly impressive win over BYU.  But my thought is that the Ducks have too much speed and Cal is not Stanford.  Puddles enjoys this game bunches.

4. Utah (-1.5) @Washington State [59]

Pick: Washington State to WIN on the ML

I know, I know, I'm going BACK to Wazzu a week after being burned by them. But, in my defense, they are playing in Pullman where the Cougars are much better and Utah, while physical, has nowhere near the athletic ability of USC.  That said, despite Wazzu's up-tempo offense, I think this is a low scoring affair. You might even be tempted by the under.

5. Stanford @ Notre Dame (-5.5) [54]

Pick: Stanford to COVER +5.5

I STILL think Notre Dame is overrated while Stanford has given them fits over the last few years. Also, Stanford has proven they can walk into South Bend and snatch a game from the Irish. Bryce Love is going to have a huge day.


Other Major Games:  (I've gone away from looking at as many games, and will only comment on the bigger games or games that were on my watch-list for the FIVE.)

Ohio State (-3.5) @ Penn State [71.5] - White out alert, and even though it feels like Penn State has about a Million of these per season it's still something that gets the home crowd up and make Happy Valley a very, very difficult place to play.  Don't be surprised if the Nittany Lions pull the upset here.  But I'm still picking Ohio State to win.

BYU @ Washington (-17.5) [45.5] - This is a huge non-conference game for Washington, who needs to beat the Cougars and beat them convincingly.  BYU has vastly out-performed my expectations for them and you just have to wonder when do they hit that part of the season where they inevitably start wearing down?

West Virginia (-3.5) @ Texas Tech [79.5] - Despite the high number, the OVER is still the play here. I also might dabble with Tech on the ML because I believe that their road win over OSU is the most impressive game of football played by either school to date.

Florida @ Mississippi State (-7.5) [51.5] - A game that will go a long way to determining the 3rd tier pecking order in the SEC this season.  I THINK Miss State is the much better team, but Florida has not looked terrible this season. That said my numbers show Miss State winning big, and Florida has been AWFUL against the spread on the road.


And Finally.....

Michigan (-14) @ Northwestern [47.5]

Another week, another Michigan line that makes me nervous as hell. After beating Purdue Northwestern has looked pretty bad the last two weeks. And after losing to Notre Dame Michigan has looked pretty good. My numbers have this game much closer than 14. With Michigan winning by around a touchdown.  But...it's on the road, against a team that NEEDS a win.

Go Blue.

Good luck and enjoy the games.