As we get neck-deep into conference play we're starting to figure out more and more who these teams are, who's good, who's not, and who might have the tools to make runs at conference championships.
1. Minnesota @ Nebraska (-4) [56]
Pick: Minnesota to COVER +4.5
Just when you think Nebraska is going to get a win, things fall apart. A lot of people are backing the Huskers because they think they are "due". That's a horrible reason to back a team. Minnesota is not a very good football team this year, but Nebraska is a BAD football team right now. I still think Scott Frost will turn this around, but he's going to need some time.
2 & 3 Oregon @ Washington State (-3) [66]
Pick(s): Oregon to WIN on the ML and OVER 66.
A rare Two-fer in one game here as I really like what head coach Mario Cristobal is putting together in Eugene. Granted, at times Wazzu can shock you with a strong defensive effort, but I think the team that scores last here wins. I expect a shootout won by the Ducks and Herbert.
4. Ohio State (-13.5) @ Purdue [68]
Pick: Ohio State to COVER -13.5
I have the talent gap between the two teams being fairly wide, and Ohio State understands what they need to do to teams like Purdue in order to set themselves up for the CFP. The Buckeye defense has survived the shock of losing their best player for the season, and is playing good, aggressive ball right now.
5. Mississippi State @ LSU (-6.5) [45]
Pick: LSU to COVER -6.5
I really like what LSU has on the field this year and I think Coach Orgeron should be in the running for coach of the year. The Bulldogs have talent, but are a much better team at home than on the road. Plus, this game is being played in Baton Rogue, at night, under the lights in Death Valley. There's not many better home field advantages than that.
Other Games:
Memphis @ Missouri (-9.5) - Part of me likes the visiting Tigers to pull an upset over the home Tigers here. Yes, it's a dreaded "SEC game" for an American school, but the American conference has shown a proclivity to shine in games such as this. I'm laying a little on the Memphis side of this one, but not as part of my FIVE.
Alabama (-29) @ Tennessee - The Tide are quite possibly the only really good team in college football right now. I think we're going to see how good against a Tennessee team that's showing signs of improvement, but who catch the #1 team in the country at exactly the wrong time for their development.
NC State @ Clemson (-17) - The Wolfpack have a history of playing Clemson close, and the Tigers come into this game with a host of questions on offense, a defense that's not been as dominant as many expected, and looking for all the world that they're ripe for an upset. You know what THAT means.....
Oklahoma (-8) @ TCU - If there was any way OU would slide to -6.5 I would jump all over this, but at -8 I'm just not a fan. That said TCU has real problems right now both on offense and defense and OU is ANGRY, understanding they need to run it up to impress the CFP committee.
Games in which I have a rooting interest:
Air Force (-10) @ UNLV [57] - The Desert Rug Rats have fallen off a cliff after the Armani Rodgers injury and there are real rumblings that head coach Tony Sanchez is not the one to lead this team to a winning record. They have been way over matched in the last two games since Rodgers went out and the coaching staff seems to have no clue what to do. Air Force is not a very good team this year, but they're probably good enough to run roughshod over the Rebels. Drink heavy Rebel fans, this one's gonna hurt.
And Finally.....
Michigan (-7) @ Michigan State [41] - Another week, another Michigan line that I just hate. While I'm happy that the team showed development and progress against Wisconsin, it's also possible that the Badgers were highly overrated this year, while it's also possible that Sparty is back to being good. For all of the talk about Michigan "controlling their playoff destiny" the next two weekends will prove that true or false. This is a murderer's row of games. Wisconsin, AT Michigan State and AT Penn State. Get the win here Michigan, then worry about Happy Valley.
Next week I'll release my top 10. Because I think at that point we'll have enough of a sample size to go on.
Enjoy the games, fade or follow these picks, whichever you choose.
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