The Shield: The Week 6 Three and OUT

Jumping into the NFL pool early this week because, once again, I like the lines as they stand RIGHT NOW.  I'm very doubtful you'll find anything close to these on Sunday....

1. Carolina @ Washington (-1) [45]

Pick: Carolina to win on the ML.

Coming off a Monday Night thrashing the Washington Politicians are smarting. They got shellacked by the Saints and I don't see that defense doing any better of a job against Carolina. The Panthers are missing Greg Olsen but almost everyone else of note are healthy and should play. The Politicians are missing oft-injured WR Josh Doctson and that really hurts their offense. I like Carolina to snag a road win here against a member of the renewed NFC Least division.


2. Jacksonville (-3) @ Dallas [40.5]

Pick: Jacksonville to COVER -3

The Cowboys are a dysfunctional mess right now offensively, while Jacksonville had a rough week last week against what might be the AFC's best team in the Kansas City Chiefs (we'll find out this weekend) they've largely taken care of business except in a division game against the Titans.  I'd feel better about this if D.J. Hayden and Leonard Fournette could play, but my numbers still have Jacksonville beating the Cowboys be a TD even if they don't.


3. Tampa Bay @ Atlanta (-3.5)  [57.5]

Pick: OVER 57.5

Consider these numbers.  In their first 5 games of the season Tampa Bay's defense has surrendered 25, 40, 21, 30 & 48 points,  In their first 5 games Atlanta's defense has surrendered 18, 24, 43, 37 & 41.  These are no longer aberrations, they're now trends. Neither of these teams plays anything resembling NFL quality defense and even with questionable QB Jameis Winston starting in this one I think it hits the over somewhere shortly after halftime.



The Game in which I have a rooting interest:

San Francisco @ Green Bay (-9.5) [46.5]

As I stated a couple of weeks ago, all hope is lost for the Niners this season. We saw last week just how bad things are when the team got beaten by the lowly Cardinals. Yes, Green Bay is beat up, they always are, but there's nothing in the Niners recent history that suggest they're going to be able to even slow down Aaron Rodgers, much less stop him.  I think you'll be able to turn this game off at halftime because a blowout is coming.  On the bright side, Ed Oliver should be there next year when the Niners are drafting.


Good luck however you choose to play.