You can catch up with this series at the following links:
Part: The First
Now that I've said my piece, let's dig right into the game action......
(Note: All of the odds will be from Westgate but if there's a better option out there I will mention it, all odds are accurate at the time of publication and are subject to change)
December 15th:
AutoNation Cure Bowl.
Tulane (-3.5) vs. Louisiana [59] M/L: TUL -165 LOU 142
In some bowl games motivation is a question, but I don't think you're going to have an issue with that considering the teams that are playing here.Tulane Hasn't been in a bowl game since 2013 where they lost, ironically, to then Louisiana-Lafayette 24-21 in the R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl. Louisiana returns to a bowl game in head coach Billy Napier's first year after replacing Mark Hudspeth, who won the New Orleans bowl four years straight before the program steadily decline after 4 9-4 seasons.
Tulane had an up and down season, starting off with losses to Wake Forest, UAB and Ohio State before beating Memphis to turn things around, they then lost the next two before losing two more and rebounding to beat Navy 29-23 and get bowl eligible. Louisiana started off horribly, losing badly to Mississippi State and Alabama before rallying in conference play prior to losing to Appalachian State in the SunBelt Championship.
Tulane has a dual threat quarterback and is much better running the ball than throwing, Louisiana has not been the best team stopping the run. Despite the odds I THINK Louisiana is the better team although I don't think there's all that much separating the two.
Pick: Louisiana to COVER +3.5
Prediction: Tulane 28 Louisiana 27
(Note: Not a lot of movement between the books here but if you like Louisiana on the ML avoid Westgate (142) and Wynn (135) head to Caesars and Will Hill where you can get 145)
Celebration Bowl
Alcorn State vs. North Carolina A&T (-8) [47.5] M/L: ASU +260 NCAT -320
Unlike some of these other bowl games I'm not going to pretend that I've seen a ton of HBCFB this year, but I have seen both teams play once or twice each and I can tell you that NCAT is the real deal. I don't think this one is going to be all that close.
Pick: Alcorn State to COVER -8
Prediction: Alcorn State 10 NC A&T 42
New Mexico Bowl
Utah State (-7.5) vs. North Texas [68.5] M/L: USU -310 UNT 250
After opening the season with a razor-close 7 point loss to Michigan State (a game they could have won to be honest) Utah State ran off 10 wins in a row before they ran into the Mountain West buzzsaw that is Boise State on the Blue Turf. Still, they played them close and were rightly considered one of the better Group of 5 teams on the season. The reward for their success? Head Coach Matt Wells jumped to P5 Texas Tech, and they hired former Oregon State, and Utah State head coach Gary Anderson to pilot the ship starting next year. Ugh. Still, this is a good team but I'm worried they're going to miss Wells a lot in this game.
North Texas started off like a house-of-fire winning their first three games, including a 44-17 thrashing of Arkansas, before tripping up against Louisiana Tech, UAB and Old Dominion. But their season was a success and while it seemed dodgy for a bit, head coach Seth Luttrell ultimately decided to stay put and continue what he started building. This is a plus for them as it provides an odd bit of continuity at a rising G5 program. Something they'll be looking to take advantage of in the bowl game.
This matchup is offense heavy, with Utah State running back Darwin Thompson facing off against North Texas QB Mason Fine. I'm expecting points although the Mean Green do have a stud LB in the person of E.J. Ejiya who should be drafted to the NFL in 2019. Fine could also be a draft pick but it's likely he'll come back to continue with Luttrell. I think UNT's defense will do just enough to stop the Utah State offense in a game where kicking a FG will be a dumb idea.
Pick: North Texas to WIN on the ML
Prediction: Utah State 35 North Texas 41
(Note: If you want to take the OVER go to Wynn where the line is current set at 68. Also, bet the ML at the Wynn because the payout there is currently +260 rather than +250 at the other books)
Mitsubishi Motors Las Vegas Bowl
Arizona State vs. Fresno State(-4.5) [54] M/L: ASU 170 FSU -200
Going into the season Sun Devil head coach Herm Edwards was more of a punchline than someone who many considered could lead a team to a bowl. His not knowing the mascot was the Sun Devil (and wanting to rename them the Sun Angels) was good for about two days of Twitter mockery but then the season started. The Sun Devils came out like a shot, winning their first two games, including a 16-13 win over, you guessed it, Michigan State before settling into a win/loss/win/loss pattern in conference which ended with a 41-40 thriller of a win over rival Arizona and a 7-5 record. Unfortunately for the Sun Devils their best player, WR N'Keal Harry, has decided to skip the game to prepare for the NFL draft.
Fresno State beat every Mountain West team they played this year except Boise State, and they had an unusual loss to Minnesota thrown in at the beginning of the season. Then something interesting happened in the Mountain West championship game. They avenged the loss to the Broncos on the Smurf Turf and gave head coach Jeff Tedford the first conference win of his career. Fresno has a good quarterback in Marcus McMaryion and talent that fits well around him. They have a defense that plays faster than it looks, and which can be ball hawking at times.
I think the biggest question in this game is how in the world are the Sun Devils going to generate any offense without Harry in the lineup? Their second receiver only has 40 catches and the receiver replacing him only has 1 catch this year. Then there's this: One of the problems for the Pac-12 in Power 5 inter-conference play has been that they lack the size to truly compete with their peers, and they lack overall team speed as well. Fresno State should match up with them physically, and they might even have better athletes across the board.
Pick: Fresno State to COVER -4.5
Prediction: Arizona State 10 Fresno State 28
(Note: There's not a lot of space between the books on these odds, but if you like ASU here head to William Hill who are at +5. Conversely: if you like Fresno, as I do, avoid Will Hill. If you like the over you want to take the 53 at Ceasars and vice versa)
Raycom Media Camellia Bowl
Georgia Southern(-2.5) vs. Eastern Michigan [47.5] M/L GSU -140 EMU +120
Last year, Georgia Southern was terrible. Then head coach Tyson Summers destroyed the option identify of the school which led to a 2-win season. New Head Coach Chad Lunsford brought back that identity and had them at 7-1, including a huge win over Appalachian State, before losing two inexplicable games down the stretch, including a head-scratcher to Louisiana-Monroe. But they're back running the triple option (aside, ALL teams should be required by the Constitutional Amendment to run this) and are back in a bowl where they belong.
Eastern Michigan has typically been the doormat of the MAC, the team you want to schedule for homecoming because you're guaranteed a win. That's not been the case since Chris Creighton took over as head coach. This is a team that does not lose by much. Their biggest loss of the season was 37-22 against a tough Army team. Every other loss has been by a score. The highlight of their season was a 1-point win over a Purdue team that turned around a horrid start to make a bowl.
The matchup in this game is pretty clear. Georgia Southern is very hard to stop running the triple option, but EMU has seen this before, ran better, with Army, so they'll at least be familiar. And their defense is stout, while their offense is capable, if not spectacular That said this is a defacto home game for Georgia Southern being played in Alabama, and Georgia Southern is looking for their first 10-win season in program history. I'm expecting a mud-wrestling event to break out, low-scoring and messy.
Pick: UNDER 47.5
Prediction: Georgia Southern 21 Eastern Michigan 10
(Note: Not a lot of advantage at the books here, if you like the Under, and I do, try to go to Caesars or Wynn and get 48 instead of 47.5. If you like GSU on the ML, then Will Hills is your current best at -130. If you're the other way when Westgate and Caesars are your play at +120)
R + L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
Middle Tennessee State vs Appalachian State (-7) [49.5] ML MTSU 225 APP -275
This season was middling for Middle Tennessee State as Sr. Quarterback Brent Stockstill thought he had played his final game under his father, Head Coach Rock Stockstill, until they got the call that they were playing in this bowl. Stockstill has been a standout offensive player for the Blue Raiders, setting school records in passing and leading an offense that has been impressive unless they are playing some of the top teams in the country.
Appalachian State was considered, at times, to be in the running for top Group of 5 team in the country. Such success however comes with a price and the Mountaineers are looking at this bowl game without the services of Scott Satterfield, who has left to go and try to rebuild the disaster that is Louisville post Bobby Petrino. App State has a great passing defense however, and a ton of talent on the offensive side of the ball. This is a good team who is going to have to answer the question of how they'll play without their very important head coach.
The matchup in this game is simple: Can Brent Stockstill pass the ball against the Appalachian State pass defense, which has been stingy and ball-hawking all sesason long? If they can, then I expect Middle Tennessee State to have a chance to pull the huge upset. Every bowl season you have to make a stand against a heavy favorite if you want to turn a profit. This game is my stand.
Pick: Middle Tennessee State on the ML +225
Prediction: Middle Tennessee State 27 Appalachian State 24
(Note: This is a Wynn bet for me, because I can get +230 there. If you like the over go to Westgate, where you can grab 49.5 and if you like the under fiind a Will Hill book, because you can grab 50.5 there. If you're betting App State on the ML try Caesars, the best current odds at -250)
Good luck, enjoy this Saturday, and here's hoping that we can wash the stink off of the regular season and make something happen here.
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