You can see my so-far pathetic record here:
Part, The First
Part, The Second
Part, the Third
The more things change this college football season the more they stay the same. You watch the games, you track the stats and figures, and then everything that you think you know about the teams comes crashing down in a heap of "what the hell?"
Take the Cheribundi Tart Cherry Boca Raton bowl for example. Two teams, both run-based, both with outstanding defenses, suddenly become passing machines and the total goes OVER just after halftime.
Thank goodness the NFL, college basketball and fading the Houston Rockets early are bailing me out.
Let's look at Saturday's Slate of games.
Jared Birmingham Bowl
Memphis (-3.5) vs. Wake Forest [73.5] ML: MEM -165 WF +142
The biggest news coming out for Memphis is that star RB Darrell Henderson will not be competing in the Birmingham Bowl as he has chosen to come out early to prepare for the NFL draft, where he'll surely be a high running back selection. In his place Memphis will rely on a two-headed monster approach featuring Patrick Taylor Jr. and Tony Pollard, a duo that had some success against Missouri when Henderson went out with an injury. Make no mistake though, this IS a big blow to Memphis who needs to control the ball to keep their pretty bad defense off the field.
Wake Forest barely qualified for bowl inclusion, winning their last game against a Duke team that had nothing left to play for. And they shellacked them, playing their best game of the year and winning 59-7. Prior to that game the season was a near-disaster. They needed late upset wins against NC State and the aforementioned Duke team to even get into this bowl game. It's perhaps no coincidence that the Wake turnaround started when Freshman Jaime Newman took over at QB, replacing the injured Sam Hartman in early November against Syracuse. Since his elevation, the Demon Deacons have been a better team.
The prime matchup in this game is going to be Memphis' running game versus a Wake Forest defense that has struggled against the run. Even without Henderson Memphis should try to run the ball, the question will be whether or not Wake can stop them. Memphis defense is, to put it mildly, not very good, so I'm expecting the Newman led Deacons to score some points at least. Given the history of both team's defenses I can't see any other way to read this. Which, of course, means that we're going to get a messy mud-fight of a game where both offenses consistently step on themselves.
Pick: UNDER 73.5
Prediction: Memphis 24 Wake Forest 21
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Houston vs. Army (-4.5) [59.5] ML: UH 170 Army -200
Houston would look a lot better coming into this game if quarterback D'Eriq King hadn't gotten injured against Memphis and if Navy hadn't tried to end Ed Oliver's career with a dirty block, ruined his relationship with college football and caused him to shut it down in fear for his pro career. As it stands the UH defense cannot stop a stiff Jr. High Marching Band on the ground and their offense, while still having some talent, is inconsistent and lacking the great play-making ability it had under King.
Army does what service academies do, run the option, better than any of the other service academies out there. They practice ball-control, they play sound defense, and they just don't give the opposition too many chances to score. Jeff Monken's team should be ranked in the top 25. And while they're ranked 22nd in the AP, and 25th in the coaches poll, the College Football Playoff does not have them close in their rankings. It's a travesty, and one I doubt we see corrected in the final CFP rankings, because they're trash.
The matchup here is the Army triple option, versus the Cougar defense without Ed Oliver to stuff the run in the middle. Houston had higher hopes this year, and given Major Applewhite's coaching history I'd say whether or not they come motivated to play is a 50/50 question at best. Army could set the single-season team rushing record in this game.
Pick: Army to COVER -4.5
Prediction: Houston 17 Army 35
Dollar General Bowl
Buffalo (-2) vs. Troy [49] ML: UB -125 Troy: + 105
Buffalo had thoughts all season of a MAC Championship, but that went down in a heap with late-season losses to Ohio and Northern Illinois in the MAC Championship Game. So, motivation IS a question here. Buffalo has a good offense led by a gifted quarterback in one Tyree Jackson, the 6" 7' flamethrower who is elusive and a powerful running in the right circumstances. His main target is NFL prospect Anthony Jackson, who is a force in college football at the receiver position. They employ a running back by committee strategy that's been effective as well. Defensively they have some holes, especially against the run, but they do well against the pass, and have a tendency to turn the ball over on their opponents. Buffalo is also seeking their first bowl win in school history.
Troy is getting used to being good, playing in bowls, and winning them as they're trying for their 3rd consecutive bowl win in a row. Their offense begins with running back B.J. Smith he's a spectacular season eclipsing 1000 yards. Troy's passing game is suspect, with QB Sawyer Smith struggling of late after he replaced Kaleb Barker who went down with injury. He only has 10 TD's versus 6 INTs so this part of the game could be a question mark. Their defense has questions against good passing offenses, but they stop the run well and they don't give up many points.
This feels like it could wind up being the bowl game of the early window, and possibly one of the better games of the season. Troy's defense is stingy, and Buffalo's offense is prolific. That's the first key match-up, can Troy stop Buffalo's passing game? The second match-up is Troy's offense vs. the Buffalo D. Can Troy develop some consistency, run the ball with Smith and pass it enough to keep them from being one-handed? I think so.
Pick: OVER 49 & Buffalo to COVER -2
Prediction: Buffalo 37 Troy 24
Sofi Hawaii'i Bowl
Hawai'i(-1) vs. Louisiana Tech [61.5] ML UH -115 LT: -105
At the beginning of the season Hawai'i was the feel-good story of college football. Led by Freshman QB Cole McDonald Hawai'i was back to scoring points, and running the Run n' Shoot offense to perfection. They won 6 of their first 7 before losing 4 in a row and then bouncing back to win their last two. Not coincidentally, Cole McDonald was off and on with injuries during the 4-game losing streak. They're aggressive on defense but they can be scored on. Typically, in true Run N' Shoot fashion, they try to outscore their opposition.
Louisiana Tech is the polar opposite. Skip Holtz' crew relies on defense, and a rush-based offense. Going up against a pass-based offense should make DE Jaylon Ferguson very happy. He leads the FBS with 15 sacks on the season, and should be looking for more. The question for the Bulldogs is whether or not their offense will be able to score enough points to keep up with the Rainbow Warriors pass-happy style?
I expect Hawai'i to come out throwing, and not stop. Louisiana Tech will make some plays on defense, but the quick passing style of the Run n' Shoot is designed to negate strong pass rushers, and the speedy WR's that the Rainbow Warriors employ will give the Bulldogs fits. I don't think this one is going to be all that close in the end.
Pick: Hawai'i to COVER -1
Prediction: Hawai'i 38 Louisiana Tech 14
Enjoy the games.
After this the college football season takes a break until after Christmas, when the P5 schools start to make more regular appearances. I'll be taking a break as well, but will probably look at the Dec 26th and 27th games before the Holiday.
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