As is custom, here's your recap of prior posts in the series....
Part, The First
Part, The Second
Part, The Third
Part, The Fourth
After a rough start in the first tranche of games, (2-5) I rebounded in 2-4, went 7-4 and am now sitting at even (9-9) for the bowl season. It's a game of streaks occasionally, I'll take a hot streak, let's keep it going.....
Servpro First Responder's Bowl
Boston College vs Boise State(-2.5) [50] ML: BC +130 BSU -150
There was some talk around both these programs making a NY 6 bowl at various points of the season, but neither could pull out the big win when they needed it most.
Boston college started the season well, but losses to Purdue and NC State left them limping, and then three losses to close out the season to Clemson, Florida State and Syracuse pretty much exposed them to be the team I had predicted pre-season. BC gets chronically overrated by the media because they all like the cut of head coach Steve Narduzzi's jib. However, BC is hoping to get back bell-cow running back AJ Dillon and, should he return, they might be more potent on offense then they have been since he went out with injury. They are stout on defense, but slow.
Boise State was doing their usual job of getting overrated by everyone not paying close attention prior to losing to Oklahoma State, and then San Diego State in short order. Amazingly, they were still in the conversation for Group of 5 NY 6 consideration until losing to Fresno State in the MAC Championship game. Quarterback Brett Rypien runs the offense, and they do have talent at the skill positions. I worry about their line play against P5 teams these days, which is a departure from Bronco teams of the past.
The biggest story in this game might be the weather. If you were lucky and grabbed the number at around 56 then good for you, because forecasts of 20+ MPH winds and rain have it falling fast to around 50-51. Still, there might be a little bit of value there at Caesars which is still offering 51.5.
Pick: Boise State to cover -2.5 and UNDER 51.5
Prediction: Boston College 17 Boise State 24
(As stated earlier, grab this line at Caesars if you can. Westgate is 50, WH and Wynn at 51 at the time of publication. If you like Boston College to pull the upset take a cab to Westgate (+135))
Quick Lane Bowl
Minnesota vs. Georgia Tech (-6) [56] ML: MINN +190 GT -240
Minnesota head coach PJ Fleck has got much more of a leaky boat at Minnesota than he did at Western Michigan. Recruiting his guys, and getting them to buy in, has been a challenge. When Minnesota has lost this year, they've lost in grand form. Four straight to kick off conference play and then a 55-21 humbling by Illinois. Look for them to rely in RB Mohamed Ibrahim on offense and watch them HOPE that they defend better against the run than they did all season long.
This will be Yellowjacket head coach Paul Johnson's farewell performance, and his players are hoping to make it a winning one. They run the triple-option possibly better than anyone in the country outside of Army and their plan is to control the ball, not let Minnesota's offense on the field, and just grind the Gopher's down.
I think Paul Johnson wants to prove something in this game and I think his players want to see him do it. This one could be all but over by halftime given the porous nature of the Gopher defense this year against the run.
Pick: Georgia Tech to COVER -6
Prediction: Minnesota 7 Georgia Tech 31
Cheez-It Bowl
California (-1) vs TCU [38.5] ML: Cal -115 TCU -105
In every bowl season there is a dog, a game so unappealing that I'm not even sure when I see the schedule if I'm going to watch. This is that game this year.
Cal is a middling team that's only 8-4 because it scheduled two FCS opponents this season. They have a terrible offense and an improving defense that allowed the Bears to pull an upset or three this season. This is the blueprint that coach Justin Wilcox seems to want to follow. Good defensive play coupled with an offense that can kick just enough field goals to win close games.
TCU has had a nightmare season with injuries and player misconduct. They're going to rely on 3rd string QB Grayson Muehlstein to get the ball to Jalen Reagor, who has been the one constant on offense this season. Muehlstein played well to end the season helping the frogs to wins over Baylor and OSU to end the season and get the Frogs bowl eligible.
In the coaching matchup I have to point the needle solidly toward Gary Patterson of TCU. Muehlstein has been improving, and a month of extra practice can only help. I'm not touching the number, but I do like TCU to pull a room-temperature upset. And yes, I will be watching despite my better self.
Pick: TCU to win on the ML
Prediction: California 13 TCU 20
(Note: Not a whole lot in this game but if you like the over go to either Westgate or Will Hill who are both a half point lover at 38.5)
Walk-on's Independence Bowl
Temple (-3) vs Duke [54.5] ML: TEM -160 Duke +140
Temple started off the season with a disaster, loving to FCS Villanova. They then righted the ship, won some games, and even pulled off an upset or three against AAC members, Cincinnati, Houston and USF. Of course, those wins, especially the UH one, look a lot worse after what we've seen in the bowls. Unfortunately they lost their coach to Georgia Tech, replacing a retiring Paul Johnson, so for the 2nd time in a bowl game interim head coach Geoff Collins will lead the team. Look for them to rely heavily on RB Ryquell Armstrong to carry the load.
Duke meanwhile stumbled to finish the season in a forgettable run that included shellackings by both Clemson and Wake Forest. The Wake game was especially appalling for them because the Demon Deacons are the closest thing they have to a football rivalry. Head Coach David Cutcliffe does well in bowl games however, as they're going for their 3rd straight win.
My handicapping of this game takes into account the seriously sorry state of the American Conference this season, especially the West, where Temple made most of their hey. I'm liking Duke on the Money-line here.
Pick: Duke to win SU on the ML.
Prediction: Temple 24 Duke 27
(Note: Try to grab the ML at Wynn, where you can grab +150 still)
New Era Pinstripe Bowl
Miami (-3) vs. Wisconsin [47.5] ML: Mia -150 Wisc +130
Call this the "disappointment bowl" because both teams had grand designs of playing for bigger and better things in 2018 after playing each other in the 2017 Rose Bowl. So this is a bowl rematch, in a lesser bowl, played in Yankee Stadium. Yikes.
Miami saw big things ahead for 2018, but those dreams were snuffed out under a cloud of shoddy offensive play, especially at the quarterback position. Malik Rozier was benched for N'Kosi Perry, but now it appears that Perry is going to be suspended for the game. Couple that with a horrific, career-ending neck injury to WR Ahmmon Richards, and it's just been bad for the Hurricane. They do have a prolific running back duo who have been effective moving the ball, but costly penalties and dumb game-management decisions have proven this to be very much a Mark Richt coached team.
Wisconsin's problem has been horrible play by signal-caller Alex Hornibrook. How bad has he been? So bad that head coach Paul Chryst is expected to burn the red-shirt of Jack Coan to keep Hornibrook out of the game. Wisconsin will trot out the best player on the field in the person of Jonathan Taylor, who they are hoping can help them control the ball and force Miami's offense to have to make the most of limited possessions.
Motivation is a concern (which the lines have factored in), suspensions and bad play abound, neither team is going to want to be here. Hold your nose and pick.
Picks: Wisconsin to win on the ML and UNDER 47.5
Prediction: Miami 3 Wisconsin 13
(Note: Grab Wisky at either Westgate or the Wynn, where +130 is the best you'll find.)
Academy Sports + Outdoors Texas Bowl
Baylor vs. Vanderbilt (-4) [56] ML: Bay +160 Vandy -190
In one of the funnier bits of advertising of the current bowl season, local radio ads for this game are suggesting "the rivalry is renewed". This is a "rivalry" between two teams that have played each other exactly two times, in the 1950s.
Baylor is still continuing their long rebuild from the Art Briles error under the guidance of Matt Rhule. This year their record is hollow when you consider that they only beat one bowl eligible team all season, Oklahoma State. To top it off, it's unclear whether or not they'll have any of their two offensive stars. WR Jalen Hurd is definitely out, having undergone a knee procedure, and RB JaMycal Hasty MIGHT be out as well.
Vanderbilt has questions of their own regarding the health of stars. RB Ke'Shawn Vaughn has been nursing an arm injury and it's unclear whether or not he'll see the field. If he can go, that will be a huge help against a Baylor defense that struggles against the run. I also think that WR Kalija Lipscomb has the potential to be a matchup nightmare for the Bears' secondary.
Typically, when two 6-6 teams hook up, there's not a lot of anticipation for the bowl game in question. This might be a little different for the Texas Bowl however because the games preceding it are predicted to be snoozers. I'm not entirely sure there's going to be much of a reason to tun into any of the Thursday bowl games, but if there is, this game might be the one to watch. (Low bar to clear but still)
Pick: Baylor to cover +4
Prediction: Baylor 24 Vanderbilt 17
Enjoy the games, good luck.
Next up we start to take a look at many of the bigger teams, and bigger bowl games.
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