A COVID Revival

On Dec 31st 2019 I wrote what I thought would be my last post on this, or any, blog.  I was done, finished, and I really wasn't regretting the decision, nor did I have any reason to write about anything in long form (except the book on business management I'm working on) so I really didn't miss it.

Then strange times hit. The world locked down (apparently on the advice of some very dodgy (false) modeling) and we've all been confined to our homes, "essential" trips only kids, and forced to tele-commute, work from home, and in many cases, lose our jobs, be forced to take cuts in pay etc.

Tens of thousands have died and Millions have been infected. In a year where I was fully planning on reducing my social media use drastically, circumstances have required that more time is spent on various mediums, for no other reason than to keep some kind of interaction going.

I've started fiddling with YouTube, working on videos that I fully intend to keep going. I've been active on Twitter, less snarky and more supportive to folks, I've been watching friend's YouTube videos and greatly enjoying them.

Unlike some in the media, I'm not apprehensive. I don't have "angst" about venturing into public, I'm not having an existential moment, I'm just working and taking walks and eating healthy, I've actually lost some weight during this mess.  Mentally I'm just fine. I have my wife, my dogs and my family for support.

Yes, if you follow along on Twitter and YouTube you know that Mom recently passed. But I'm at peace with that because now she is no longer in pain.

So, overall, I'm good.  What I have found out during this time is what I instinctively knew from years of writing blogs.  I'm not a born entertainer, I'm not someone who's ever going to have 50 gazillion followers and subscribers.  Others are celebrating their 2, 3 or 10 thousandth YouTube subscriber, I was ecstatic to break 50. c'est la vie to be honest.  I've been off for a bit but I'll start back soon.  There's only so many videos you can make of yourself sitting and talking with a brown curtain in the background.

As for Vegas, that's not happening for a while. Not because I'm scared of traveling, I'm not, but because I simply cannot afford it given work realities right now.  Maybe October? Maybe not. Probably not until the job situation changes.

What I am planning on is returning to a casino in June. My local casino, which gets authorization from the State to re-open May 18th.  Currently I'm planning a trip in late June. I'm hoping I can record some play and show you all what the new "new" is.

Until then I'm going to temporarily revive this wheezing relic, to provide some thoughts, insights and all of the other junk you used to know and love. I'll probably keep it going throughout the pandemic, but I'm not sure after that.  It might stay around as an extension of the brand, it may not.

But you at least have around 3-4 months of ignoring it, and that's a healthy hunk of reality right there.

Be healthy.

(In a nod to interaction I'm going to try and reinstate comments on here. We'll see how it goes)

On Video Poker Pay Tables, Variance, and the average player.

Bob Dancer is a video poker legend. He's also a bit of an elitist when it comes to the game.

His attitude toward video poker is that players should ONLY play games that have the best pay tables.  That said, his numbers are solid, his strategy sound and he's a good resource should you want to improve at the game.

However, his blind spot is that his advice is solely directed at the high-volume, professional player. Mr. Dancer has no use for the recreational player and is incapable of understanding their motivations.

This is not intended as criticism of the man, it's just fact. (Although I'm betting, if he ever reads this, he would take it as criticism but c'est la vie)

My point here is that there is always a LOT of emphasis placed on "pay tables" and whether or not it's advantageous for a player to search out the good ones.

For example. On the Las Vegas strip you'e most likely to find 7/5 DDB. (Double Double Bonus [the most popular game] where the Full House pays 7 coins (35 for a max bet) and the flush pays 5 coins (25 for the max bet).  This game carries an expected return of  95.7120 % over the long run. Whereas 8/5 DDB, where the Full House pays 8 coins (40 for a max bet) has an expected return of 96.7861 %  over the long run and 9/6 DDB (you get the picture) has an expected return of 98.9808 %.

These returns have been determined through solid mathematics, and have been proven through many long-run simulations.  One thing that players like about video poker is that the "house edge" is a known quantity, unlike with slots, whose hold percentages are the last great mystery in the casino.

Of course, Mr. Dancer would say that players should never play DDB, that the house edge is too high for a serious video poker player to consider.  Despite this DDB is the most popular game in the terminals by far.

But, for the average player, does it really matter?

My argument is no.

Why, because these expected returns are calculated in the long-run, over the life of the game. The average video poker player is not going to get anywhere near this level of play in their lifetime. Because of this I'm of the opinion that the pay tables don't really matter a hill of beans in determining profit for most.

What DOES matter is whether or not you get higher or lower than the standard deviation on premium hands. I'm defining premium hands to be any 4 of a kind, 4 of a kind with a "kicker" (On DDB you can use the 5th card to increase the payout, typically 4 Aces with/2,3 or 4 or 4 2s,3s,4s with any A,2,3,4 etc.  There are other variations (such as face cards) but let's stick with these).

So on a 5 coin bet a hand of 4 Aces would pay 800 credits but, if the fifth card is a 2,3, or 4 the payout increases to 2,000 credits. This is called "Aces with a kicker" or AWAK in shorthand.

And your profitability is going to be determined by whether or not you get more or less of your fair share of those, statistically.

On my last trip to Las Vegas I drew 38 4 of a kinds.  Of those 3 were AWAK (including 2 within 10 minutes of one another) 10 were "premium quads" (for example, 2s, 3s, or 4s with no kicker, which pay 400 credits rather than 250, 4 Aces with no kicker which we discussed above, or 4 2s,3s,4s, w/any A,2,3,4, also discussed above) I also got one straight (non royal) flush (250 credits) the rest were 'normal' 4OAKs (250 credits).  This was over 4 days playing.

If you're thinking that's an insane amount of 4OAKs you would be correct. I've been playing video poker almost exclusively for 4 years now (I've been playing poker for around 29 years of my life) and I've never had a trip where I've gotten that many.

Yes, I made a profit, despite playing 7/5 DDB on the Strip or 8/5 and 9/5 DDB downtown. Profitability wasn't determined by me getting an extra coin on the full house, it was gained by grabbing 4OAKs on the high end of the standard deviation.

Fast forward around a month and I visited Lake Charles, Louisiana.

There I played either 8/5 DDB or 9/5 DDB almost exclusively, only got 3 4OAK in 2 1/2 days and lost big.

Fast forward one more month and in a solid day of playing 9/5 DDB bartop at River Spirit in Tulsa, Oklahoma only saw 1 4OAK and I lost a good portion of my ass.  Despite River Spirit having the better pay table.

One other point.  If you search for the best 'return' game on the unit you're playing there's a very real chance you could get caught playing a game where you're weak on strategy.  In that case the 98.8980 % game you're playing might return closer to 93% (or worse) if your strategy isn't sound.

Long story short, there's a lot of information out there telling you to search out and only play the 'good' pay tables. If you're a high-volume, long-session player this is probably a good idea. But if you're the average video poker player who sits down and plays a short session a couple of times per year I'm not convinced that the variance in expected return is going to affect you much. It's far better to play a game with a slightly lower return on which you're confident of the strategy*.




























*This is separate from the argument of whether or not you should reward casinos that offer good pay tables. I think you should, but some times it doesn't work out that way.  I try to focus most of my gambling spend off-Strip because of this, and away from MGM, CET etc.  but quite often I'm staying at those properties so I play what is available to me.

College Football: The Week Four FIVE

To be honest, last week I was more interested in getting away to Lake Charles for a weekend than I was actually picking the games.  As a result, the results were below what I've come to expect from this little adventure in trying to finish above 55% for the year. (In case you're wondering, that's the amount you have to exceed to beat the Vig and turn a profit.)

I called Week 3 "sneaky" good but I'm just flat out declaring that Week 4 in college football is going to be Goooooo--ood.  Especially in the Pac 12 and SEC, which feature in four of the FIVE this week.  I think you're also going to see another trend in here that I'll discuss at length in the Bet the Rent newsletter.

So let's get on with it:  As a reminder, all lines are correct as of the time of publication as published by the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas.  THEY WILL MOVE by kick off, which is something I try to note.

1. Utah (-3.5) @ Arizona  T: 58.5

I've a lot to say about the Wildcats and none of it is any good.  They've basically beaten two FCS teams (UTEP is awful, look it up) and lost, at home, to a Houston team that was playing it's first game and still struggling with Harvey issues back home. The Utes pounded two bad teams (one FCS, the other might as well be this year) and won, on the road, in the Holy War.  Two things I like about this game but I'm only using one in my pick.  The other, the over, is due to the fact that Arizona can move the ball, they just can't stop anyone.  Pick: Utah to cover -3.5 (wait a bit however, I think you might get this at less than three if you're patient. If it starts moving the other way, grab it before it gets to 5)

2. Toledo @ Miami (-13.5)  T 57.5

Toledo is, probably, the class of the MAC this year and a win at Miami would put them in the early-season discussion to be the Group of Five representative in the New Year's 6 Bowl Game.  While I think that's going to be a tall order against the 'Canes I DO think it's a possibility.  However, I think two better possibilities are the over and the pick.   Pick: Toledo to cover +13.5. (This line is plunging toward Toledo. I would jump on it in a hurry as the offshore books are already showing -12.5)

3. Mississippi State @ Georgia (-5) T: 48.5

Yet another game where I'm betting the road dog starts barking. I'm a little bit more confident in this one however.  This line has moved Georgia's way and the total has gone down. Last week's 37-7 thrashing of LSU by MSU was the 2nd most impressive win I've seen all year behind OU over Ohio State. I think people are still underestimating the Bulldogs. Pick: MSU to win on the M/L. (If you don't like that, take them to cover anywhere down to +3)

4. Florida (-2.5) @ Kentucky T: 44.

The most impressive win between these two teams is Kentucky's road win over South Carolina. Florida's offense is still struggling and I think it's too early to suggest they found a quarterback because Feliepe's Hail Mary was answered.  If ever there was a year the Wildcats could break through, this is it.  What's life (and gaming) without some chance right? Pick: Kentucky to win on the M/L. (If you can't get that in Vegas try to see if the line moves to +3 and take them to cover at home)

5. UCLA @ Stanford (-7.5) T: 57

Pac 12 After Dark is one of the greatest things about College Football.  And while I don't think this game has true "AD" potential, I DO think it's got the makings of a giant upset.  True, Stanford has lost to a couple of good teams in USC and SDSU but UCLA's loss to Memphis is nothing to hang your head about. They also have that miraculous come-from-behind win over the fighting Sumlin's. I like the Bruins here a LOT. Pick: UCLA to cover +7.5 (I would also probably make a small bet on the M/L if I could find it, because I think the upset potential here is very real).



As you can see, I'm heavy on the underdogs this week.  It will be the same for my Bet the Rent Picks but, if you're a subscriber, you won't see those until Friday.  As a reminder I am 4-0 on picks for BtR and I'm hoping to make it 6-0 this week.

College Football: Crazy Days and Mondays

In the end, it was a classic.

When Clemson finally scored to take the lead 35-31 with :01 second left in the 4th quarter (at around 12:30 AM EST FWIW) it seemingly brought and end to what has been an outstanding college football season.  But, of course, the season wasn't finished with us yet because there was still the kick-off (onsides) and the Clemson recovery (under further review) which told us both what is great about this silly game and what is wrong with it all at the same time.

In the end, however, the officials got the call correct, Deshaun Watson took a well-deserved knee and Clemson are your 2016-2017 College Football Playoff Champions.  Congratulations to the Tigers.  And congratulations to the Crimson Tide as well, because the two teams treated us to an all-time performance and, especially, a 4th quarter for the ages.

Before all of that however it felt as if the game was being played in a fug.

It started slowly. Both teams went three and out and then, behold, Bama scored on one of those drives where all of Twitter goes "Uh Oh" before cringing in front of what we all know is going to be a blowout.

Then, it was 14-0 as Bo Scarbough started to run roughshod over the Clemson defense and it looked all the world like the pundits worst fears were true.  As the saying goes Evil, always wins and it appeared that Darth Saban's Evil Empire was just about to blow planet Clemson to smithereens.

A funny thing happened however, as Clemson rallied, scored a couple of touchdowns and actually ended the half down 14-7, only one TD down and with a team that was looking more and more competitive as the game went on.

At the end of the 3rd quarter it was 24-14 and Clemson was driving. Right at the beginning of the 4th they scored a touchdown to draw close at 24-21 and the stage was set. Ironically, 24-21 was the exact same score as last year's title game at the start of the 4th quarter, a game that Clemson lost 45-40 which was driving their motivation this year.

After that the game boiled down to Alabama's athletes, including TE OJ Howard who, same as last year, was left totally unguarded and scored a long TD to put Alabama up 31-21 and looking for all the world like the next champions, versus Mr. Watson.  And it was Deshaun Watson who decided that is team was just not going to lose today.

Wherever Deshaun is today, I'm sure he's sore.  Because the Alabama defense administered an old-fashioned ass-whuppin on him as the game went on.  Hard hit after hard hit, a Watson-Copter play where he whirling dervished at around his own 40, and Watson just kept getting up and willing his team to the end-zone.

Then, Clemson's passing game started working, as Mike Williams (another member of the "beat to a pulp" club) started making acrobatic catches down field and "gritty" Mike Renfrow (future New England WR) started making key catches and RB Wayne Gallman and TE Jordan Leggett made just enough plays to set up the final stanza.

And what a stanza it was.  Seemingly every play was a great play, with some level of spectacular contained within it. The ESPN announce crew of Chris Fowler and Kirk Herbstreit did a pretty good job of accentuating the high moments and then getting out of the way. By this point the game had become fully-formed and the drama was set.

And then Renfrow caught his TD pass with one second left in the game.  35-31 Clemson, ballgame. Clemson fans went wild, Bama fans (probably) destroyed ever TV in the State and the long-loud wail that you heard was the Las Vegas sports books realizing their ultimate fear: Clemson outright and the over. (I had Clemson with the points, but not on the ML. I didn't play the total)

There will be a lot of talk as to whether or not this was "the best College Football Championship Game of the modern era".  The obvious contender being the 2005 Rose Bowl where Vince Young took UT-Austin on his back and willed them to a championship.  I'm not going to get into that here. All I'll say is that I've been privileged in life to be able to witness both.  Both great games with two of the greatest individual performances I've ever seen from Vince Young and Deshaun Watson respectively.

There will also be a lot of (silly) blame placed at the feet of Steve Sarkesian, who, in my opinion, called just about the best offensive game that he could, given that his Freshman QB is not yet able to consistently complete the forward pass down the field.  Losing today does not take away from the fact that Alabama's defense was an all-time, once in a decade unit.  And what they achieved this year is arguably the best single-season performance in the modern era.

In the end the College Football Playoff gave us exactly what it was supposed to, a a match-up for the championship between the two best teams in the country. In the end, it gave us what will probably be the best football game of the season, college OR pro.

Are there problems? Sure. The games run too long for one, and college football needs to figure that out (hint: don't stop the clock after every first down, except in the last three minutes of each half) and the instant replay process is still cumbersome and a little bit odd.  The officiating needs some work, but to be fair this Big XII crew did a pretty good job calling the game. (Maybe you could argue they might have called targeting from time to time but that didn't seem to be biased against any one team) And "Buff Ref" became the star of the show.

College football (and it's TV partners) do need to seriously look at how to reduce the in-game commercial breaks. There were times in this game where I felt I was watching a commercial show and the game was the sponsor.  The games need to be played in three to three and a half hours. That's a problem the rules committee needs to address.

Because tomorrow morning I, and many others, are going to wake up, and drive to work in a state that makes us technically comatose, all because we had to get one last Larry Culpepper commercial in before the broadcast was complete. (Leaving Jesse Palmer behind was the funniest thing they've done with that all year.) Also, this game should have been played on a Saturday, so that we all could stay up later and eviscerate our livers with the college football drinking game.

You have around 8 months to rest-up, replenish, and recharge before the 2017-2018 season begins.

I can't wait.



Until then though,.....College basketball is looking fun this year.

College Football: The Week 8 FIVE (Probably should have retired on a win streak)

So last week, for the first time this season, if you faded my FIVE picks you're a LOSER!!!! (Kidding, you're still way, WAY up if you fade me for the year)

Suck it with my just over .500 finish. (3-2, 11-28-1 for the year)

But hey, that which doesn't kill you makes you stronger (albeit less financially well off) and, despite my better judgement, I'm plowing ahead this week, hoping beyond hope that I can pull this season out of the sizzling fat of failure.

I've got a diverse set of games for the FIVE this week.

1. Old Dominion @ Western Kentucky (-13.5) I would really prefer it if I could get this game at -14 or better, but I'll take a good Old Dominion team getting almost two touchdowns against a less-good than their reputation Hilltoppers team. ODU 24 WKU 30. Old Dominion to cover -13.5.

2. East Carolina @ Cincinnati (-1.5) Yes, the Pirates are on a 4-game losing streak but the Bearcats are in full meltdown mode after a horrible looking 20-9 loss against UConn. Cincinnati had everything going for it in terms of their program, and then they hired Tommy Tuberville. ECU 24 Cincy 20. ECU to win on the ML.

3. Oklahoma (-14) @ Texas Tech. But....the game is in LUBBOCK! you say.  That's fine, but the Red Raiders "best" home win so far is against a pedestrian Louisiana Tech team, and last week they got boat raced by West Virginia at home.  OU is starting to roll with Dede Westbrook healthy and catching seemingly everything. Tech's defense is still awful. OU 45 Tech 17. OU to cover -14.

4. Ole Miss @ LSU (-6). Before we get into game analysis, a moment of silence for Mike VI.......Thank you. LSU needs to run the ball to be successful, and Ole Miss' defense is pretty decent at stopping that. I think Coach O gets the win, at an emotional Death Valley, but I think this is a field goal game. Ole Miss 21 LSU 24. Ole Miss to cover -6.

5. Arkansas @ Auburn (-9.5). After a rough start to the season Auburn is looking better, and Arkansas two losses are to Alabama and aTm respectively. The higher this line moves toward Auburn, the better of a bet it becomes however. Two pretty good teams facing off here. Arkansas 27 Auburn 30. Arkansas to cover -9.5.


Other games under consideration:

Miami @ Virginia Tech (-6). I like the U to bounce back here.  The U 27 Va Tech 24.

BYU @ Boise State (-7). If the light-scheduling Broncos don't lose here, I'm not sure they lose. BYU 20 Boise State 27.

Oregon @ Cal (-3). The loser gets the crown of the most disappointing team in the PAC-12. If Oregon loses Helfrich is all but gone. Might even be if they win. UO 45 Cal 38.

Wisconsin (-3.5) @ Iowa. I almost included this in my FIVE. I think Iowa is a paper tiger. Wisc 21 Iowa 3.

NC State @ Louisville (-19). Another game I almost included in my FIVE, but I don't trust NC State at all. NCSU 14 Louisville 35.

Texas @ K-State (-3). Some are calling this a "must-win" for Strong. I disagree, I think the decision to fire him has already been made. UT-Austin 13 K-State 27.

Colorado @ Stanford (-2). What is wrong with the Cardinal? Buffs 27 Stanford 20.

Memphis (-2.5) @ Navy. The University of Houston will be scoreboard watching. Memphis 28 Navy 24.

TCU @ West Virginia (-6.5). At some point people think TCU will become themselves again. I think we're seeing what they are this year. TCU 9 WVU 39.

Eastern Michigan @ Western Michigan (-23.5). The feel-good story of the year visits one of the best group of 5 programs of the year. Not as ugly as everyone thinks. EMU 20 WMU 35.

Houston (-21) @ SMU. The best thing about SMU is their new "city skyline" logo. UH 42 SMU 14.

Michigan State (-2.5) @ Maryland. The Maryland defense makes glaciers look fast in comparison. Sparty 20 Maryland 17.

Ohio State (-19.5) @ Penn State. Yay, another "white out" game. At some point the Buckeyes are going to get it figured out. I think it's here. OSU 56 Penn State 6.

Washington State (-7) @ Arizona State. Toss up game. Whichever team shows up. Wazzu 56 ASU 54.


The big game of the weekend:

Texas A&M @ Alabama (-18.5). I'm not sure if there's a (plausible) line big enough to make me risk money on the Aggies.  That said, I was wrong about them this year, they're a good team.  But I still think Bama is going to truck them at home. Texas aTm 6 Bama 42.


The teams I root for:

Colorado State @ UNLV (-3). The Rebels are favored here. This is not a drill. Like last week the NEED this game or all hopes of making a bowl are kaput. I think they get it against a pretty awful Rams team.  CSU 13 UNLV 31.

Illinois @ Michigan (-35.5). The lines for Michigan this year have been ridiculous. Sure I think the Wolverines CAN win by more than five touchdowns, but I don't think they WILL win by that much.  That said I don't think the Illini CAN score against a motivated Wolverines defense.  If they do score it will be in garbage time.  Illinois 3 Michigan 38.


Good luck and enjoy the games this weekend.

The Public Money: Same Blog, New Name

Just some random housekeeping here as I never was a big fan of "Sharp Like a Marble" (the real phrase is "sharp as a marble" but there was already a blog with that name) so I've changed it to.....


"The Public Money"

If you have any experience in betting, at all, you know that the public money is often the side that you want to be opposite of.  It's the money that provides the financing for all of the beautiful (and not-so-beautiful) casinos around the world.

The public bets with its heart, not with its mind. It believes in luck and "hot" tables and doesn't understand that each roll of the dice is an independent event. The public believes they are "due" and that whomever the favorite is would be "the team Vegas thinks will win".  Of course none of this is true.

The house believes in mathematics. As do the true "sharps" (not the touts, although they believe in another set of math which we'll explore later), as do I, and as should you.

No other big changes, except that I've added a 3-card poker hand up top that I've actually won with before.  Because, you know......luck.

College Football Playoffs: Finishing the Top-tier on a Saturday

Part One: The Big Ten (All fourteen teams)

Part Two: The Big Twelve (All Ten teams)

Part Three: SEC (Paul Finebaum's opinion excluded)

Part Four: The Pac12 (Finally, a conference that can count)

Part Five: The College Football Playoffs


Now that I've spent way too much time looking at the conferences, let's take a little time to make projections for the College Football Playoffs....

Here's how I see the top 4:

1. Ohio State 12-0
2. Georgia 11-1
3. USC 12-0
4. TCU 12-0

On the outside looking in will be the ACC in the person of Virginia Tech.

In the first round I have Ohio State beating TCU, and USC beating Georgia.  This should set-up a match-up of football blue-bloods when Ohio State beats USC giving Urban Meyer a 2nd straight CFP championship and continues the blood-boiling of Florida fans.

Next-up, the 2nd Division Conferences who have no chance of playing in the Playoffs, but continue to hope beyond hope that they get included in the dance regardless.

I'll start this look on Monday, hopefully finishing up by Friday.

College Football Conference by Conference: The ACC (No arrest records tracked)

Part One: The Big Ten (All fourteen teams)

Part Two: The Big Twelve (All Ten teams)

Part Three: SEC (Paul Finebaum's opinion excluded)

Part Four: The Pac12 (Finally, a conference that can count)

Next Part Five: The ACC

Two years ago this was the power conference in the Nation. Not the SEC, not the Big Ten, not the Pac12, the ACC. Not only was Florida State the last B(C)S champion but the conference swept all of the major awards.

Flash forward to today and the ACC is no longer on the top step (I think the Pac12 holds that honor) but they are still very competitive at the top, but dismal at the bottom.

Atlantic

Florida State 11-1  (7-1 Conference)
Clemson 8-4 (5-3 Conference)
NC State 8-4 (4-4 Conference)
Louisville 6-6 (3-5 Conference)
Boston College 5-7 (2-6 Conference)
Syracuse 5-7 (1-7 Conference)
Wake Forest 4-8 (1-7 Conference)

Coastal

Virginia Tech 11-1 (8-0 Conference)
Georgia Tech 10-2 (7-1 Conference)
Pittsburgh 9-3 (6-2 Conference)
Miami(FL) 8-4 (4-4 Conference)
Duke  7-5 (3-5 Conference)
North Carolina 5-7 (3-5 Conference)
Virginia 3-9 (2-6 Conference)

Last year it was the Big XII that had the case of the red-ass when their one-loss (co)champion Baylor was excluded from the College Football Playoff in lieu of Ohio State. This year I predict it will be the ACC that gets the red-ass when their one-loss champion (Virginia Tech) gets left-out of the College Football Playoff in favor of one-loss Georgia.

Part of the problem is that I don't think the ACC has a truly great team this year. As a result, this conference is going to beat itself up.  Plus, Virginia Tech, who I think is the top team coming in, gets Ohio State early in a revenge game for the Buckeyes, who probably won't be breaking in a new Freshman QB this time.

I think NC State and Pittsburgh are much improved, thanks in large part to easy schedules, and I think Louisville is a team on decline, while Syracuse, North Carolina, Wake Forest and Virginia keep hoping for the mythical next year.  As long as David Cutcliffe is the head coach Duke shouldn't be truly bad, but I don't see the talent on their roster to be as good as the last couple of years.

Still, in large part due to their balance at the top, I think this conference puts nine teams in bowl games and emerges with a record over .500.

College Football Conference by Conference: Pac12 (Finally, a Conference that can count)

Part One: The Big Ten (All fourteen teams)

Part Two: The Big Twelve (All Ten teams)

Part Three: SEC (Paul Finebaum's opinion excluded)

Now Pac12:

There was a time that I did not enjoy watching Pac12 football. These were the dark days before Arizona State, Arizona and UCLA started enjoying their resurgence, and when USC just kicked the crap out of everyone.

These days the Pac12 is one of my favorite late-Saturday night views. The Arizona teams are good, there is (for the most part) competitive balance across the league and even the best teams have to work against some of the mid-tier teams.

All that said, I still like Oregon to win their division.

Without further ado.....

North

Oregon  8-4  (6-3 Conference)
Washington 8-4  (5-4 Conference)
Stanford  7-5  (5-4 Conference)
Oregon State 4-8  (2-7 Conference)
California 3-9  (1-8 Conference)
Washington State 3-9  (1-8 Conference)

South

USC  12-0  (9-0 Conference)
Arizona State 11-1 (8-1 Conference)
Arizona  10-2 (7-2 Conference)
UCLA  6-6  (4-5 Conference)
Utah  5-7 (4-5 Conference)
Colorado 4-8  (1-8 Conference)

So after it all, I'm returning to the old days of USC vs. Oregon in the championship game. All that said, I think the two Arizona teams will be nipping at their heels. I also think that Washington will get very close to Oregon and will challenge them. With a relatively weak out of conference slate the in-conference games for this should be outstanding.

Of all the games, watch for USC vs. Arizona State as a potential game of the year. On the defensive side of the ball, despite the fact that they're going to have a down year, watch out for UCLA stud LB/part time RB Myles Jack who I think has the potential of becoming a GREAT, not good, LB at the NFL level. On offense, watch for USC QB Cody Kessler who I suspect will get some serious Heisman run.

After all is said and done I think that USC wins the conference undefeated, and makes it into the College Football Playoff where they will be seeded 3rd.  I also fully expect to find them in the National Finals.  Overall I expect the conference to place 7 (possibly eight, if Utah beats Michigan in week one) teams into bowl games where I suspect they're going to do very well due to top-flight athleticism.

College Football Conference by Conference: SEC (Paul Finebaum's opinion excluded)

Part One: The Big Ten (All fourteen teams)

Part Two: The Big Twelve (All Ten teams)

During the era of the B(C)S, the SEC was king. Not only did it win most of the championships, (9 out of a possible 16) It also won seven in a row from 2006 to 2012 which proved, to some, that the SEC was among the most dominant conferences of all time.

Enter the College Football Playoff system and things are expected to be a little different. For one, the system was not designed by a former SEC commissioner with the express purpose of benefiting the conference and, second, there is a premium being placed on winning the conference championship, and the SEC can only name one.

Add to that the fact that I believe the SEC West to be relatively down this year, and I think the currents of power within the conference are changing.

How I think they'll finish:

East:

1. Georgia 11-1 (7-1 Conference) Division Champ
2. Tennessee 10-2 (6-2 Conference)
3. South Carolina 9-3 (5-3 Conference)
4. Missouri 8-4  (4-4 Conference)
5. Florida 6-6 (3-5 Conference)
6. Vanderbilt 4-8 (2-6 Conference)
7. Kentucky 2-10 (0-8 Conference)

West:

1. LSU 11-1 (7-1 Conference) Division Champ
2. Alabama 10-2 (6-2 Conference)
3. Auburn 10-2 (6-2 Conference)
4. Arkansas 8-4 (4-4 Conference)
5. Ole Miss 7-5 (3-5 Conference)
6. Mississippi State 6-6 (3-5 Conference)
7. Texas A&M 5-7 (2-6 Conference)


The problem with making a prediction in the SEC this year is that every team has flaws. The two teams I picked, Georgia and LSU to win their respective divisions seem (to me) to have smaller flaws than the others. The trendy pick in the West is Auburn, but I don't think they have enough offensive firepower to beat either LSU or Alabama, while 'Bama itself has too much to replace to beat LSU etc.

My dark horse here is Tennessee, if they can beat Georgia, in Athens, then they could win the conference as it appears that they are a program on the rise. Speaking of on the rise, while I'm suggesting the SEC will be "down" this year it's important to note that I still have them placing 11 teams in a bowl game, with only 3 missing out.

Of the three non-bowling teams I'm sure my most controversial pick is Texas A&M. As much as I like head coach Kevin Sumlin as a person, he's never won with "his" guys at any program and I think SEC defenses have adapted to what made the Aggies tough to handle, the spread offense.  I don't think Sumlin is in any trouble, but I do think that if he doesn't turn it around next year he could be then.

Whatever happens I think Georgia gets crowned the conference champion this year, and I think they make the College Football Playoff as the two seed despite having one loss. Such is (still) the power of perception when it comes to the SEC.

College Football Conference by Conference: Big Twelve (All ten teams)

Part One: The Big Ten (All fourteen teams)

Last year it was hard to tell who was the Big Twelve's worst enemy, the College Football Playoffs, or itself.  After floundering around after both TCU and Baylor shared the top spot the conference finally decided that it would have "co-champions" which, in conjunction with Ohio State's 59-0 shellacking of Wisconsin in the Big Ten championship game, meant that they were the first "Big Five" conference to have the red-ass at season's end.

Of course, conspiracy theories abounded and many people noted, rightly so, that had Oklahoma or Texas had been in the mix they would have gotten in because of their bankability. Instead, we were splitting hairs between Baylor, who had a great season but played no one outside of conference, and TCU, who had a more difficult schedule but couldn't get past Baylor in Waco, with both teams eventually left out of the tournament.

This year I think the Big XII is in for more of the same. The battle for the top spot will be pitched between TCU and Baylor, with an improving Texas and resilient K-State making up a pretty strong second-tier. My biggest variance from the experts is Oklahoma, who I feel is a program in decline and getting closer and closer to the point where Head Coach Bob Stoops needs to be shown the door (or, better for everyone, show himself the door).

Of all the Big Five conferences I still think the Big XII is the weakest, by far. I don't see this improving any time soon and I think over the long run this will be the conference that's dissolved as we move to 4 16-team super conferences in the future.

Here's how I see it finishing in the Big XII:

1. TCU  12-0  (9-0 Conference) Conference Champion
2. Baylor 11-1 (8-1 Conference) 
3. Texas 9-3 (7-2 Conference)
4. Kansas State 8-4 (5-4 Conference)
5. West Virginia 8-4 (5-4 Conference)
6. Oklahoma 7-5 (5-4 Conference)
7. Iowa State 5-7 (3-6 Conference)
8. Oklahoma State 5-7 (2-7 Conference)
9. Kansas 2-10 (1-8 Conference)
10. Texas Tech 2-10 (0-9 Conference)

Again, I think the differential between TCU, Baylor and the rest of the league is sizable. I do think Texas will be improved this year because I think Strong is a very good coach. I believe Texas is a pretty solid #3 team here. There is very little to separate K-State from Oklahoma State and the middle of this league could fluctuate with any of these teams getting wins over the other and improving their lot. The bottom of this league is way below the remainder of the rest of the conference in terms of talent and ability. I think Kansas is on the rise again however, but not this year.

That leaves us with Texas Tech, who I want to spend a minute on because I think that head coach Kliff Kingsbury is entering his final year. It's clear he's not ready to man the top spot, and the team is suffering for it.  Maybe on the next coaching search Tech will remember that it needs to win games and not just be hip on social media.

This year, I think TCU wins the conference outright and finally gets the nod into the College Football Playoff. I do, however, think they make it as a #4 seed.

Besides Kingsbury, there could be a lot of movement in the coaching ranks this year as I'm thinking Iowa State, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech and possibly Oklahoma and Kansas State (if Snyder retires) could be in the market for new program leaders.

College Football Conference by Conference: Big Ten (all fourteen teams)

When it comes to the Big Ten this year the East is the Beast. I think that 3 of the top four conference teams will come from that division and that the talent gap is very real.

Clearly, the favorite in the starting gate is Ohio State and I see no reason to bet against them. Head Coach Urban Meyer has done what he's always done, out-recruited everyone and built a power. The clear number 2 teams is (still) Michigan State, with Penn State nipping at their heels as Head Coach James Franklin is loving life now that the post-season ban and scholarship restrictions, stemming from the Sandusky horrors, are finally in the rearview mirror.

In the West, I think Wisconsin is the clear favorite and it's not close. Many are picking Iowa as a dark horse because they have a relatively easy schedule. Unfortunately for the Hawkeyes I don't think their team is strong enough to compete. I see Jerry Kill coached Minnesota as a more likely threat to usurp the Badgers than anyone, but I still don't think they have the firepower to do it.

Finally, my team, Michigan. This is the first year of the Harbaugh era and, while excitement is high, I think the team still has several holes in terms of talent that they need to fill before they can truly contend.  Still, I have them making a bowl.

So, without further ado, here's how I think it will go.

East:

1. Ohio State 12-0 (8-0 Conference) regular season (Champion of the East)
2. Michigan State 11-1 (7-1 Conference)
3. Penn State 10-2  (6-2 Conference)
4. Michigan  7-5 (4-4 Conference)
5. Rutgers 6-6 (2-6 Conference)
6. Maryland  5-7 (2-6 Conference)
7. Indiana 4-8 (1-7 Conference)

West:

1. Wisconsin 11-1 (7-1 Conference) regular season (Champion of the West)
2. Minnesota 8-4 (5-3 Conference)
3. Nebraska  7-5  (5-3 Conference)
4. Iowa  6-6  (3-5 Conference)
5. Northwestern 5-7  (3-5 Conference)
6. Illinois 5-7  (1-7 Conference)
7. Purdue 4-8 (1-7 Conference)

To be honest, the bottom half of the Big Ten is still pretty bad. To be fair however, the bottom half of every conference is not that great, it's just that the trend of the media is to try and penalize the Big Ten more than say, the SEC or Pac-12, who have some bad teams making up the bottom half of their conferences.

The thing is, the top of the East is going to be very, very good. Ohio State is one of the best teams in the Country, as is Michigan State, Wisconsin has been tough for years now and Penn State is rebuilding successfully. In the middle there is a lot of parity, with Michigan, Minnesota and Nebraska all coming in at about the same level.  I think Rutgers and Iowa round out the Bowl picture for the Big 10, but Northwestern, Illinois and Maryland could sneak in there if they pull an upset or two.  At the bottom, poor Indiana and Purdue are hopeless, they need new directions in both of their programs,.

In the conference championship game I think we get a repeat of last year, and Ohio State wins again, although I doubt we see another 59-0 shellacking.

The good thing for the Big Ten is that all of the teams get to pepper their schedule with some pretty horrible MAC teams thus guaranteeing a winning record for some fairly mediocre teams.  That said, Ohio State's Playoff Championship and Michigan State's bowl win last year revitalized the image of this conference and they're not longer considered a pathetic joke by all but certain talk-radio hosts and sports writers who don't know anything anyway, or are just trying to get some attention.

So, it's Ohio State then, and we'll see them as the number 1 seed in the College Football Playoff. If anyone can upset the apple cart it's Michigan State, but I don't think they have the offensive firepower.

College Football Predictions: Conference by Conference

When it comes to football, make mine of the Collegiate variety over that played in the professional league. Yes, what's played in the NFL is the "top of the sport" but what's played at colleges across the land has an incredibly bigger amount of diversity, joy and passion.

From an offensive/defensive strategy perspective the College game knocks the NFL into a cocked hat. There are more mismatches that can be exploited, more risks that can be taken and the result is a better brand of football than the NFL's stripped down, bland version of the game.

For the NFL I talked about teams, for Collegiate football I think the appropriate granularity is to discuss conferences.  Because of this, I've analyzed every D-1A Collegiate game, including the games played against D-1AA teams. I've come up with win/loss predictions for all teams both overall, and in conference, and have predicted the conference champions for all of the majors.

After that I ranked the teams as I thought they might be ranked at the end of the year, and have projected the Top 5 teams, including the 4 that I believe have a good shot at this year's College Football Playoff. And, of course, I've selected a champion (thus guaranteeing they will not win [sorry guys]).

Despite the fact that I am a Michigan fan, I don't "hate" any team and I try to stay neutral in my analysis. I realize that I'm supposed to hate Ohio State but I don't, probably because I'm married to a Buckeye.  There are teams that I don't like (Michigan State, Notre Dame, Alabama) but I respect all of them for what they do well.

My methodology is simple:  I look at the games, take what I know about the teams, and pick who I think is going to win.  Later in the season, when we get some actual statistics on THIS version of these teams, I'll start deep-diving into those an some of my predictions MIGHT change, but I doubt it.

So, over the next few days get ready for yet another exercise in silliness as I lay-out how I think the College football season is going to go.  Don't worry, if I suggest your team is going to have a bad year take heart. I said before the season started last year that Alabama would not make the Top 4.

2015 NFL Preview: The Playoffs and closing thoughts.

As I noted previously, we're getting close to the time when actual, meaningful football gets played in the Fall.  Because of this I've spent some time analyzing all the teams in 2015 for both the NFL and College Football.

Introduction

AFC East

AFC North

AFC South

AFC West

NFC East

NFC North

NFC South

NFC West

Next: Playoffs, SuperBowl and the usual disclaimers.

For the last week or so I've been giving you my opinion regarding how the next NFL season will play out.  What is this worth?  Exactly what you paid for it.  For kicks though, and because predictions are the playground of fools, here are my way-too-early predictions for the playoffs.

NFC Playoff teams and seeds:

1. Green Bay
2. Seattle
3. Carolina
4. Philadelphia
5. Detroit
6. St. Louis

Wild Card Match-ups:

Detroit @ Philadelphia
Winner: Detroit

Put simply, I'm not sure Kelly's teams are properly built for the tournament.

St. Louis @ Carolina
Winner: Carolina

I've got a lot of belief in the Panthers this year, not much further than this but I think they win here.

Division week Match-ups

Carolina @ Seattle
Winner: Seattle

Home field is too much for the Panthers to overcome

Detroit @ Green Bay
Winner: Green Bay

I think Green Bay is just too good on both sides of the ball to lose here.

NFC Championship game

Seattle @ Green Bay
Winner: Green Bay

The Week 3 match-up between these two teams is pivotal. I have Green Bay winning there (at home) and winning here again (at home).  Were this game in Seattle I might have it differently


AFC playoff teams and seeds:

1. Indianapolis
2. New England
3. Baltimore
4. Denver
5. Cincinnati
6. Kansas City

Wild Card Week Matchups

Cincinnati @ Denver
Winner: Denver

Two things working against the Bengals here: 1. Mile High is a great home field advantage. 2. Cincy can't seem to win a playoff game.

Kansas City @ Baltimore
Winner: Kansas City

This is my pick for the one upset that always seems to happen. Baltimore can be great, or they can suck. I'm betting the latter.

Division Week Matchups

Kansas City @ Indianapolis
Winner: Indianapolis

Home field and a talent advantage ends the Chiefs season.

Denver @ New England
Winner: New England

In the ongoing battle between Manning and Brady, Brady has the clear advantage.

AFC Championship Game

New England @ Indianapolis
Winner: Indianapolis

Why? Because Andrew Luck gets Brady at home and I just think Indy is just that much better.



Finally......

Super Bowl 50:

Green Bay vs. Indianapolis

Winner and Champion: Green Bay

I think the Colts just aren't ready yet, and this will be Green Bay's year after the disappointment of last year.

Whatever happens, whether I'm right or wrong (most likely the latter) just remember to study your lines and enjoy the season.

All picks are for entertainment purposes only. No offer is being made or accepted from or by the blogger.  (in other words, make your own dang picks)

Last disclaimer: Of course injuries will make all of this preseason work worthless so I'm planning on evaluating again at mid-season.

2015 NFL Preview: NFC West

As I noted previously, we're getting close to the time when actual, meaningful football gets played in the Fall.  Because of this I've spent some time analyzing all the teams in 2015 for both the NFL and College Football.

Introduction

AFC East

AFC North

AFC South

AFC West

NFC East

NFC North

NFC South

Next: NFC West

Seattle Seahawks

Projected record   13-3 First place

For Seahawks fans these are the salad days. Head Coach Pete Carroll has been building the NFL equivalent of the monster teams that he assembled (outside the rules at times according to NCAA sanctions) at USC in the NCAA.  While the Seahawks lost a ton they kept a whole lot more and remain the class in the division.

Offensively they still have two things. Russell Wilson and Marshawn "Beast Mode" Lynch. They also have a good offensive line anchored by Russell Okung at LT and a new group of WR that should be a marked improvement on last year's lot. The Trio of Doug Baldwin, Jermaine Kearse and Ricardo Lockette are penciled in as the opening day starters, but I wouldn't be surprised to see 2015 3rd round draft pick Kevin Lockett from Kansas State make a strong push for playing time in the pre-season. The Seahawks have Kevin Norwood and speedster Paul Richardson providing depth here.

Defensively the unit that has ranked at, or near, the top of NFL rankings is basically similar to the unit in 2014.  The DL is manned mainly by savvy free agent acquisitions in the persons of Michael Bennett, Tony McDaniel and Cliff Avril.  The LB corps returns Irvin, Wagner and Wright while the defensive backfield adds free agent Carey Williams to man the side opposite Richard Sherman. What's noticeably missing is the defensive coordinator, who has gone on to coach the Atlanta Falcons. New Defensive Coordinator Kris Richards has a ton of talent returning, so any fall-off would be due to scheme, unless injuries occur.

The x-factor for the Seahawks is their home-field advantage. They decided to copy Texas A&M and call it the 12th Man but whatever you call it it's real, and very loud. Because of their recent run of success (and their colorful uniforms) the Seahawks suddenly have fans where none existed, so they get a band-wagon road bump as well.

The fact is that this is a tough team that only really has to worry about one team beneath them......

The St. Louis Rams

Projected Record    10-6  Second place

The St. Louis Rams are a team that's been on the rise the last couple of years. With the expected collapse of the 49ers (more on them in a minute) and my general feeling that Arizona is going to revert to the mean, I think the Rams have a chance to seize the initiative and make the playoff leap this year.

Offensively they finally cut ties with oft-injured QB Sam Bradford choosing instead to role with oft-injured former Eagle signal caller Nick Foles. While Foles is not a  world beater, he is capable when healthy and he has a pretty good group of WR's in Kenny Britt, Tavon Austin, Stedmon Bailey and Brian Quick to distribute the ball to. At running back the Rams have drafted Georgia stud Todd Gurley, who I think has the potential to become the next great NFL running back after Adrian Peterson. As a back-up they have Tre Mason, who is no slouch himself and was competent last year as a starter and should be able to spell Gurley so that the young rookie doesn't wear out after game 13 (when the average College season is finished). Expect the Rams to run a LOT of two TE sets to establish the run, take the pressure off of Foles and get both Jared Cook and Lance Hendricks on the field, which increases their flexibility. Besides Foles the big question for St. Louis is the offensive line, specifically RG and RT where they have two draft picks listed 1-2 on their draft chart at each position.  Still, if the offense becomes left handed running the ball and if Foles can get rid of the ball to speedsters fairly quickly (both of which I think are doable) they'll be fine.

Defensively the Rams have possibly the best DL in the league with Chris Long and Robert Quinn at the ends, and Aaron Donald and Michael Brockers at the guard position. Depth at guard is a concern, which the Rams tried to address via Detroit disappointment Nick Fairly in hopes some new scenery will do him good.  At LB I'm a fan of Laurenitis, and I like Ogletree OK, I don't think they have enough depth to be truly great at that position however.Where the Rams are weakest on defense, I think, lies in their defensive backfield. Janoris Jenkins is their best corner, and I think he is just OK, I'm betting that a lot of teams will identify the Left side, currently filled by EJ Gains, to be a target. Safety play and backfield depth is going to be a concern.

Head Coach Jeff Fisher has both won, and lost, during his time at Tennessee. He seems to have the faith of Rams management that he knows what he's doing so I don't think he's in immediate form unless the bottom falls out for one reason or another.

If the Rams do slip, I don't think the team behind them will be good enough to take advantage......

Arizona Cardinals

Projected Record  6-10  Third place

The Arizona Cardinals are trying desperately to turn things around as the careers of Larry Fitzgerald and Carson Palmer wind down. Unfortunately, I don't think they have the firepower on either side of the ball to do it.

Barring injury, Palmer at QB and Fitzgerald at WR are locks. I also think they have depth at WR in the persons of Malcom Floyd and John Brown. At RB however I don't think there's a quality back on the roster with Andre Ellington, Stepfan Taylor and 2015 draft pick David Johnson (Northern Iowa) each fighting for time.  Over the last couple of years the Cardinals have done a good job bolstering their offensive line with free agent acquisitions Jared Veldheer, Ted Larsen and Mike Iupati  joining 2013 first round pick Jonathan Cooper to complete a pretty solid line. The Cardinals will also employ a lot of two TE sets to try and protect the immobile Palmer but their TE group is nothing special.

Defensively I expect the Cardinals to be pretty decent. Their d-line (in a 3-4 scheme) is pretty solid but I worry about their lack of true edge rushers at the OLB spot. Alex Okafor is seemingly the best of the lot. In the defensive backfield I'm a fan of Patrick Peterson and Tyrone Mathieu but am not enamored with the remaining group.  The success of this defense is going to depend, I think, on the ability of the starters to have career years and some of the rookie free agents to provide quality depth. That's a little bit of a reach which is why I think this year will be a step back. The Cardinals are going to pay a small price for all of the draft picks they gave up to shore up the O-line and defense.

Bruce Arians is a good head coach and I think he could be onto something if given time to build the team. I worry some about the ability of the Cardinals player evaluation department as they seem to be somewhat piloting without a clear destination in mind.

This year, at least, the Cardinals need not fear the team behind them who has seemingly imploded....

San Francisco 49ers

Projected Record  3-13  Fourth place

How fast the mighty have fallen. From three straight trips to the NFC Championship game to 8-8 to what I'm predicting this year will be an unmitigated disaster. (Full disclosure, the 49ers are MY team so writing this hurts)

Offensively the 49ers are a big mystery. Maybe Kaepernick revers to his form of three years prior and maybe Carlos Hyde can fill the void left by Gore, Maybe the WR group of Torrey Smith and Anquan Boldin can turn back time but who is going to stretch the field? Vernon Davis is still around, and the o-line, despite losing Iupati, still has Joe Staley at LT but they are young at the guard position (two 2014 3rd round picks) and RT is a question mark.

Defensively things are looking bleak. The two FA pickups (Darnell Dockett and Glenn Dorsey) are players who have major question marks. Dorsey for his motor and Dockett for his health.  Stud LB Patrick Willis is retired, and Navarro Bowman is returning from a major injury. Maybe you get something from Aldon Smith, maybe not, Only time will tell.  I also worry about the defensive backfield, especially with Whitner leaving who provided some toughness. I still like Eric Reid at safety, but have never been a fan of Antoine Bathea during his time with the Colts. Shareece White and Tramaine Brock are both question marks at QB

Of course, the biggest concern with the 49ers is coaching and the general manager. After Trent Baalke and Harbaugh had it out the promotion of Tomsula was an unusual move. It's clear that Baalke feels an ego-driven need to prove that it's his brilliance, and not Harbaugh's coaching, that led this team to glory. I don't have faith in Mr. Baalke to deliver the goods.


Overall this division is not as strong as it used to be, losing the 49ers from the echelon of top teams, but they are not as week as could be. I think the 49ers are in for a rough fall, but I think the Rams and Seattle are still top teams to contend with.

2015 NFL Preview: NFC South

As I noted previously, we're getting close to the time when actual, meaningful football gets played in the Fall.  Because of this I've spent some time analyzing all the teams in 2015 for both the NFL and College Football.

Introduction

AFC East

AFC North

AFC South

AFC West

NFC East

NFC North

Next: NFC South

Carolina Panthers

Projected Record  10-6 First place

After struggling to start 2014, the Panthers went on a tear and made the playoffs with a record of 7-8-1. They benefitted from playing in the weakest division in football and the resulting schedule. For 2015 I predict much of the same. Except that, this team (and division) are going to be somewhat better.

Quarterback Cam Newton is already a star, at least in terms of endorsements, pundit attention, and I think with his newly minted contract in hand he builds on that. If rookie WR Devin Funchess (from Michigan) blossoms into the solid NFL player I think he might then Cam is going to enjoy throwing the ball to a deep, talented group of WR's that includes former Packer Jerrett Boykins and 4th year man Stephen Hill. I expect veteran Jerricho Cotchery to contribute as well. Outside of Cotchery, the Panther's WR group is young, and talented.

At RB I have no doubt that the free agent defection of DeAngelo Williams will hurt, but I think that rookie Cameron Artis-Payne, veteran Jonathan Stewart and 3rd down back Fozzie Whitaker can make up a good rotation. Add to that mix of targets TE Greg Olson and the Panthers appear set at the skill positions.  On the o-line I think the Panthers have a good mix of players with Oher and Martin (if the latter's head is right) on the outside and young rotation in the middle. Center Kalil Ryan is a good one, but he is entering his 10th year so that's something to watch.

On defense the Panthers get Kuechly back from injury to solidify the LB corps, and they picked up Charles "Peanut" Tillman who's aging, but still a good CB to play across the field from Chris Houston.  On D-line I like the fact that the Panthers have finally decided to address their issues with age, time will tell how this unit gels. Fortunately I think their soft schedule gives them time.

The Panthers are coached by Ron "Riverboat Gambler" Rivera, who I think has been given his moniker by John Gruden based almost entirely on a couple of decisions that weren't all that gambling in the first place. However, I think he's a solid coach and, after the crucible of last year, has what it takes to lead this team into the playoffs.

The Panthers had better mind their business however because of the.....

New Orleans Saints

Projected Record: 9-7  Second place

By every metric, the New Orleans Saints have had a terrible two years. After the bounty fiasco the team had to look in the mirror and realize that what was starting them back in the face was aging, with little in the way of youth to plug the holes. For 2015 the Saints plugged the holes with some timely FA signings, and some pretty solid draft picks that, if they pan out, could provide impact immediately.

On offense the Saints still have Drew Brees, who's status as one of the best quarterbacks in the game was not diminished by two bad team campaigns.  Brees is now entering his 16th year in the league but I expect that he's got one or two more quality seasons in him.  I expect the Saints to platoon RB's Mark Ingram and veteran Tim Hightower, but I imagine they will try to work rookie RB/RS Marcus Murphy from Missouri into their 3rd down package because of his explosiveness.  At WR the Saints have a wealth of riches, which makes them almost worthless in fantasy play but produce real results on the field. Look for 2nd year man Jaelen Saunders (from OU) to possibly have a breakout year. The biggest off-season loss is TE Jimmy Smith, who the Saints will try to replace with a group of players including veteran Benjamin Watson. Along the O-line the Saints have a veteran starting group, who I think will start to be pressed for playing time by a youth movement that possesses NFL talent.

On defense I do worry about the Saints ability to put pressure on opposing quarterbacks. They are throwing a lot of mud at the wall in training camp at the OLB (they run a 3-4) position in hopes of finding someone who fits the bill. I think rookie Anthony Stephone from Clemson might be a diamond in the rough.  Defensive line is another area where the Saints are rebuilding. This is a hard group to analyze because, again, they have a lot of roster spots taken up by candidates for the position. If nothing else, they are hoping that some of these guys start and the others can make up quality depth, something the Saints have been lacking. At the cornerback spot the Saints brought in New England CB Brandon Browner to shore up the side opposite Keenan Lewis. To be sure, the team looks better on the defensive side of the ball but there are still glaring holes.

Head Coach Sean Peyton is now fully back in charge, having served his penance for the bounty fiasco, and has rightly long been considered one of the top coaches in the NFL. My wonder is if his voice is starting to be ignored in the Saints locker room, and if a change is in order after another year of not making the playoffs.  Of all the teams I'm picking to finish with a winning record, I think the Saints have the biggest downside.

If the Saints do stumble they could be looking up at the......

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Projected Record   6-10  Third place

The biggest question for Tampa Bay is whether or not rookie QB Jameis Winston is of NFL caliber or no.  If he is, then this team has a bright future. If not, they're going to find themselves resigned to QB hell for the next three years.

One thing Winston will have going for him is the best 1-2 WR punch in the NFL in the persons of Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans. IF Winston can get them the ball....look out. At RB the Bucs have Doug Martin penned in as their starter, and while he struggled some last year I think he's due for a rebound year if Tampa Bay can produce something in the way of an NFL quality passing attack. To provide Winston with maximum protection I expect to see the Bucs run multiple TE sets, with blocking at a premium. Outisde of OG Logan Mankins and C Evan Smith the Bucs o-line is young and unproven. It will be interesting to see if they grow up along side him.

Defensively I'm impressed with some of the talent on the Bucs roster but I think their best defensive players (right now) are LB Lavonte David and DT Gerald McCoy. This, I think, is the nucleus they are trying to build around. In the defensive backfield I think the corner tandem of Verner and Banks is solid, but not flashy. It is of note that former Texans starting SS DJ Swearinger is listed as the 3rd string Bucs safety. I don't think Tampa Bay is all that strong at the S position so I think this speaks more to the relative overall weakness of the Texans at that position. At LB I think the free agent signing of former Cowboy Bruce Carter could provide David with some much-needed help.

Head Coach Lovie Smith has been solid, but not spectacular throughout his career, but I think he has the right demeanor to steer a young, talented group through a tough season. Fair or not Smith's success with the Bucs is now tied to the development of Winston at the QB position.  Bucs fans had better hope it works out, because they are currently wasting the end of Jackson's career at WR and the beginning of Evans'.

While I think they will struggle, I don't see anyway the Bucs ball behind........

Atlanta Falcons

Projected Record  3-13  Fourth place

2014 was as close as you can get to a nightmare for the Falcons. They started off the season on HBO's excellent Hard Knocks series talking about being a tough team. They spent the rest of the season proving to everyone that they were not.  As a result, head coach Mike Smith was fired. Obviously seeking to shed themselves of the "soft" label the Falcons brought in Seattle Seahawks defensive coordinator Mike Quinn to try and turn the situation around. As with all coordinators who are elevated to head coach status, time will tell whether or not Quinn is suited to the job.

On offense, the Falcons flow through QB Matt "Matty Ice" Ryan, who has been both great, and awful, during times in his career. I think he's a good quarterback who's suffered at times from a pillowy soft offensive line with protection issues. To try and remedy this the Falcons acquired free agents Chris Chester and John Assamoah from the 49ers and Chiefs respectively to try and shore up the interior line. The Falcons hope that 2014 1st round draft pick Jake Matthews continues to develop at the LT position although I'm not sure their starting RT (2013 Undrafted free agent) Ryan Schraeder, currently penciled in as the starter, will be able to hold off free agent acquisition Tyler Polumbus for long. At center, they had better hope Joe Hawley lasts the season because they have nothing behind them.

At the offensive skill positions the Falcons still have a very good WR duo of Julio Jones and Roddy White as starters, with do-it-all return man Devin Hester and free agent acquisition Leonard Hankerson behind for depth. At running back they're going all-in on promising 2014 draft pick Devonta Freeman, who showed sparks of brilliance in 2014 but also a frustrating tendency to turn the ball over. I also would worry about Freeman's durability over an entire NFL season were I a Falcons fan.

Defensively this could be an interesting unit.  Head Coach Quinn was very successful at Seattle with what I call a 4-4 alignment.  The Falcons brought in free agent Adrian Clayborne from Tampa Bay to play opposite veteran Kroy Biermann at the end position and Paul Solai from Miami to man the interior next to Ra'shede Hageman.  At outside LB I feel they overpaid to get former Texans LB Brooks Reed in hopes that he can apply some much needed QB Pressure. The Falcons are also hoping that 2015 first round pick Vic Beasley out of Clemson can step in immediately and start. Tough ask.  In the defensive backfield everything is pretty much status quo except for the addition of Charles Godfrey at safety from the 49ers.

Even under the best of cases, I think the Falcons are going to need some time to churn the roster and develop depth.  I could make a slim case for them improving and contending for the playoffs but that would require almost everything to align perfectly and, as we've seen, that rarely happens in the NFL.


Last year this was rightly considered to be the weakest division in the NFL. While I think this year it's improving and now ahead of the AFC South, I think that all of these teams have a long way to go. While, based on the schedule, these are my picks, I would be less surprised to see it play out exactly as picked than I would be to see the standings and records flipped.  This remains a very hard division to handicap.

2015 NFL Preview: NFC North

As I noted previously, we're getting close to the time when actual, meaningful football gets played in the Fall.  Because of this I've spent some time analyzing all the teams in 2015 for both the NFL and College Football.

Introduction

AFC East

AFC North

AFC South

AFC West

NFC East

Next: NFC North

Green Bay Packers



Projected Record:   14-2 First place

For Green Bay, it's all about offense. Specifically, it's mostly about Aaron Rodgers, with a healthy dose of Eddie Lacy and Jordy Nelson thrown in for good measure.  On the defensive side of the ball, you talk about Clay Matthews Jr and Julius Peppers and you think Wow! This team is loaded!

However, then you look at the rest of the roster, the other players who are OK but not great, an offensive line that's good but not great, a group of defensive backs that are slightly above average, and a defensive line that's just "meh" and you start to think 'why in the world am I picking this team to win a lot of games again?'

The reason I'm picking Green Bay to win a lot of games again is because what's good about this team, is among the best in the league. Aaron Rodgers is the type of quarterback who can will his team to a win, Clay Matthews Jr. is a controlling type of linebacker, and Julius Peppers has been on the top of his game for years now with no signs of falling off. Coach Mike McCarthy is a good coach who understands what makes this team work so well, and he seems to have the players ears in the locker room.

So, it's Green Bay again for me, with a team that's threatening to nip at their heels if they suddenly get old.

Detroit Lions



Projected Record: 11-5  Second Place

Let's get the obvious out of the way first.  IF Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson stay healthy and IF Haloti Ngata is the same player as he was with the Ravens and IF RB Ameer Abdullah is as good, and runs as hard, in the pros as he did at Nebraska then this team can be very good.

If Abdullah is not an NFL quality back and Stafford and/or Johnson get hurt and Ngata gets old in a hurry this team could finish 6-10 because the rest of this roster is pretty average, lacks depth and still seems to have an infuriating tendency (for Lion's fans) to shoot itself in the foot in key moments. They thought that they were going to solve this issue by hiring head coach Jim Caldwell to replace Schwartz but they still have problems with little things like penalties at key times etc. Getting rid of Suh might help some of that however.

My issue with the Lions is that my problems with them aren't entirely surrounding the talent on their roster, it's the amount of maturity in their heads. Because of that I've a feeling I'll never pick the Lions to win until after they do.  So this year I'm not picking them to win but wouldn't be surprised if they had the ability to take advantage of things should Green Bay falter.

In this division, there's a long way between the top two and the bottom two.....

Chicago Bears

Projected Record   6-10  Third place

As goes Jay Cutler, so go the Bears. Unfortunately for Chicago fans I'm not much of a believer in Mr. Cutler. Yes, he likes to sling the ball around the field and he's been given some decent offensive tools to play with.  Matt Forte is a top RB in the NFL and is perpetually underappreciated. I think that the team is really hoping Michigan State draft pick Jeremy Langford develops into a quality back-up to Forte.  At WR the Bears have Alshon Jeffery and Eddie Royal, and seem to be hoping that former Baylor WR Kevin White will emerge as their new #1 option.  The problem I think they might have is that Baylor players are severely impaired coming out of college, in terms of digesting and absorbing NFL offenses.  I worry that what's good about the Bear's O-line is getting old, and their draft picks do not inspire feelings of joy.

Defensively I still think this team's strength is at LB.  Lamarr Houston and Mason Foster are two pretty solid players and I think 3rd year player Christian Jones has the physical talent to become a solid contributor. The worries, in my mind, lie with the defensive line.  There is some talent there in the persons of Ego Ferguson and Jarvis Jenkins and they are big (only one DL on the current roster is under 300 lbs). I do worry that they lack a true edge rusher.  The coaching staff is relying heavily on Theo Ratliff (aged 34 and oft-injured last year) which should worry Bears fans a little.

On the coaching front the Bears are going with dismissed Denver man John Fox, who couldn't get Manning and the talented Broncos over the finish line. Vic Fangio is a proven defensive coordinator, so there is a chance my worries about the defense are overblown.  I just don't think Fangio has enough raw talent with which to work a miracle.

The best news for the Bears is that they play in the same division as the.....

Minnesota Vikings

Projected Record   3-13  Fourth place

One of my biggest nits to pick with so-called "professional" NFL analysis is that most analysts are reluctant to pick a team to have a horrible record. Despite this in every season there are some that do. The key is to honestly assess who you think is most likely to have the wheels come off.

In the NFC North I think this team is the Vikings. I say this despite liking quite a lot of the talent on their roster.

Offensively, when he's focused and healthy, Adrian Peterson is still the top RB in the NFL and it's not close for second. The WR duo of former Steeler Mike Wallace and Cordarrelle Patterson is fine as well. In the slot I even like Jarius Wright OK.  The Vikings have a good line, but I do worry about Loadholt, Sullivan and Berger getting old. Where I really worry on this team is at the QB position. I've yet to see anything from Teddy Bridgewater that convinces me he's a QB that can lead a team to the playoffs.

Defensively I think the Vikings have two above-average CB's in Captain Munnerlyn and Terrance Newman, although the latter is entering his 14th season. I think the S position is weak, and the Vikings lack depth throughout the DB. At LB I like (don't love) Anthony Barr and Chad Greenway. I'm uncertain about the other two positions however. It's the DL that I think is suspect. DE Everson Griffen is a player, but I just don't see all that much around him. With little pressure on the QB I'm afraid that the Vikings could be on the downside of some higher scoring games.

Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer waited a long time to finally get his first head coaching nod. Now that he's gotten it I think the jury is still out on whether or not he's a coordinator or a head coach. I think he will be tested this year as the off-season mess surrounding his best player will not fully disperse and the locker room could be a shambles. All that said, if there's any team on the bottom in my predictions that I could be wrong about it's the Vikings.  As I said, I really like a lot of their talent on both sides of the ball. If this team stays healthy, and most things go right, then they could contend for a playoff spot.  However, when I analyze the games on their schedule right now I have a hard time putting them there.



I really think that this is going to be Green Bay's year to do some damage. I also think that we're starting to see the Lions figure things out. In the future I think this will be the strongest division in the NFL with four pretty solid teams duking it out. Right now however I think the Bears and Vikings still have some growing pains to work through.

2015 NFL Preview: NFC East

As I noted previously, we're getting close to the time when actual, meaningful football gets played in the Fall.  Because of this I've spent some time analyzing all the teams in 2015 for both the NFL and College Football.

Introduction

AFC East

AFC North

AFC South

AFC West


Next: NFC East


Philadelphia Eagles

Projected Record  10-6  First place

There are so many people this year who are doubting on Chip Kelley. I, however, am not one of them.  While I don't think the Eagles will be "great" I also don't think that they'll be awful, probably just good enough to win a relatively weak division and make the playoffs once again. If anything, I think the Eagles will be better offensively this year when you consider that Sam Bradford and DeMarco Murray are upgrades over Nick Foles and LeSean McCoy respectively.

The current group of WR's is going to rely heavily on USC draft pick Nelson Agholor, who I think will be in strong contention for NFL offensive rookie of the year.  Overall I think Kelley is getting real close to having 'his' group of players installed and the results on the field are going to show it.

Defensively I think the Eagles will be fast, active, and not able to turn the ball over too much.  This is why I think that their record will only be 10-6 and not something better. I think this team is going to struggle a little bit out of the gate, but will get things rolling in the latter part of the season.

If the Eagles do stumble worse than I think they will, look for......

Dallas Cowboys

Projected Record   9-7  Second place

I have two questions about the Dallas Cowboys offensively this year.  One, can Tony Romo keep his 13-year veteran body healthy and two, who's going to make up for DeMarco Murray's offensive production?

If either Romo goes down, or the Cowboys can't figure out a way to run the ball, then 9 wins might be optimistic. If anything I see this as being generous to the Cowboys and assuming everything goes as planned.  It's possible that Darren McFadden stays healthy and remembers that he was once considered a top running back, or that Seastrunk is what some people seem to think he is.  Regardless, with Dez Bryant, Jason Witten and a host of young, talented receivers, look for the Cowboys to be more pass-happy this year, which means that Romo will have multiple opportunities to turn the ball over, as is his wont. One thing going for the Cowboys is a very, very good offensive line which should, at least, keep Romo upright.

Defensively Dallas has talent, but are going to miss Greg Hardy for a couple of games. However, Sean Lee and Ronaldo McClain are two very good LB's and the Cowboys probably have the best collective group of defensive backs in the division.  Until they get Hardy fully back however, I think rushing the passer will be difficult for the Cowboys.

Jason Garrett, the Cowboys head coach, is not someone who generates a ton of trust in his big game coaching ability. And Jerry Jones is not a GM that generates much confidence in his talent evaluation. All that said, the Cowboys have been doing a better job with talent evaluation and Garrett has been doing just enough to keep themselves in playoff contention the last couple of years. Will they stay in contention this year? I doubt it.

The good news for the Cowboys is that, even if they stumble, they shouldn't fall behind the......

New York Giants

Projected Record   7-9    Third place

Every year we're subjected to the same NY Giants questions "Is this the year Tom Caughlin gets fired, Is Eli Manning an elite quarterback?  For me, the answers here are pretty clear. 'Yes' and 'No'.

Eli is an OK quarterback, and he has two very good WR's to throw the ball to in Victor Cruz and Odell Beckham Jr. What the Giants are lacking is a competent O-Line, and a running back who might be able to run the ball consistently.  When you're as limited as the Giants are at the QB position, running the ball will be key.

Defensively the Giants are an ageing, mediocre mess. It's clear that free agency defections and poor drafting have depleted this team greatly, and I don't see much changing that anytime soon. The Giants have drafted defensive talent poorly, and I'm not that excited about their haul this year either.

To my mind this is the year that Tom Caughlin finally gets let go by the organization, they need a massive revamping of their roster, and I don't think he's the one to pull it off.

If they don't start getting better fast they're going to be looking up at the.....


Washington Redskins

Projected Record  5-11 Fourth Place

I'm not optimistic about the Redskins chances, either to keep their nickname long-term or for the current administration to turn the team around.  2nd year coach Jay Gruden reminds me a lot of Joe Philbin, a man who's going to be a much better coordinator than he will be a head coach.

The Redskins biggest problem lies at QB, where I think the owner's insistence on force-feeding RG III into the starting line-up despite the fact that Griffith's skill set is less suited to Gruden's offense than is backup QB Kirk Cousins.  As long as Daniel Snyder continues to push for Griffith as starter, as many have insinuated that he is, then I don't see them having sustained success. As for the rest of the offense I think that Alfred Morris is a sold starting RB, but the Redskins have depth concerns behind him, the WR group is solid, if not spectacular. Garcon and Jackson are good, not great starting WR, but I see some difficulties with depth and the 3rd WR slot.  The offensive line is fair, but far from the Hogs of old.

Defensively the team from Washington is struggling outside of the corner position, where DeAngelo Hall and Chris Culliver are a good pair.  I do like the defensive end tandem of Ricky-Jean Francios and Frank Kearse but, again, they need backup help. The defensive tackles are sketchy, at best. They'll need to improve rapidly for the Redskins to be successful.  The linebacking group is so weak that the Redskins training camp roster looks like an open tryout.


Of all the picks that I've made this year it's this division about which I'm the most unsure. The Eagles are an unknown but I'm willing to give Kelley the benefit of the doubt based on his past performance. The Cowboys, Giants and Redskins seem to be teams facing major rebuilding projects in the future. In fact, I think this division is a lot closer to being viewed the weakest in the conference than it is the strongest in the conference.