And now back to our regularly scheduled programming. (SPORTS!!!!)

Now that we have the election nonsense behind us we can return our focus to sports, and sports gambling, which is the focus of this little corner of blogging and what I enjoy writing about the most.  I'm just going to touch on a few things today that have happened while I was out in Las Vegas and relatedly, while I was sick with the travel crud afterwards.

1. The CFP early ranking remain crap. Nothing against them really, but they don't mean shit at this point. The only thing that we really learned from them are two things. First, the CFP committee understands their marketing obligations to the B1G and the SEC. They are in love with brands, not teams. I don't think this will change any in the future. Second, I'm not as upset about Boise State being close to BYU as most people are. While I feel for Indiana, they have it all in front of them. But if Boise State and BYU played on a neutral field I feel the former would be favored.  Who I feel for is Army, who might be the best of the Group of 5 teams but who might not get a chance to show it.  The CFP committee says that they "watch all of the games" but that is certainly not true. Otherwise the rankings would look far different than what they do.

2. The NFL is top-heavy this year. Kansas City, Baltimore, Detroit, Buffalo. Those are the 4 teams right now that seem like they are Super Bowl Contenders. Teams that we thought might be good (Houston, San Francisco, Tampa Bay) don't seem to be all that good. There are other teams out there with winning records but they don't seem to really have a shot. The fact is the NFL is not very entertaining this year. Most games are poor, the officiating is borderline awful, and the fact that you only get three games per day without paying for a package that's not available unless you subscribe to a certain service makes Sundays must-miss TV.  And no, NBC, we are not waiting all day for Sunday Night, we're using that time to get ready for work on Monday.

3. College basketball is BACK. There have already been upsets, the return of Calipari and a handful of teams that looked REALLY good so far. This is going to be a REALLY good season, and Big XII Men's Basketball is going to be fire.

4. The NBA is back.  Zzzzzzzzzz.  Call me when the playoffs start.

5. The NHL is starting off hot. Scoring is up, there are some amazing things happening on the ice, there's a new(ish) hockey team in Utah. Oh yeah.

We're currently in the best time of the year, a time where football is on TV 7 nights per week. There's not day without a football game until almost Thanksgiving. Yes, some of it is bad, really bad, but it's a needed reprieve from the noise that surrounds the world right now. And, if you don't like the football games, there's basketball and hockey on if you're looking for something to do.

Since I was in Las Vegas and then down with the travel crud there will be no discussion of sports gaming this week. I honestly have not had the energy or time to re-run my numbers but I'm going to get them updated Sunday morning so I should be ready to go next week.

Good luck this week however you choose to play. 

The NFL Draft Actually Sucks. (But we cannot get enough of it *self included*)

 Tonight, we're going to be told that 32 dreams will come true.

And it will take hours for that to happen.

When the Chicago Bears go on the clock they will, undoubtedly, take up almost their entire allotted 10 minutes to finally send in the pick that they, and pretty much everyone else in the world, knows that they are going to make. Hail Caleb Williams, good luck to you. Then another 10 long minutes will pass before the Commanders finally turn in a card with whatever quarterback they settled on weeks ago, then the Patriots, etc. etc.

We're told that this is happening because teams are busy working the phones trying to secure a trade partner to "trade down" in the draft to receive more draft picks, but is that really true? No, they're told to take their time so the NFL TV partners can spend too much time telling us things about the player just selected that we already know. But, are the teams really trying to find a "trade partner"?

In Chicago's case, certainly not.  They got rid of Justin Fields and desperately need a new face of the franchise. Do you really believe that they're going to trade with Minnesota (the team targeted as most likely to want to move up) and settle for picks 11 & 23 and (possibly) Bo Nix? And the Commanders, also desperately needing a quarterback, will probably select reigning Heisman winner Jayden Daniels. The the Patriots will select Drake Maye and THEN we might get some serious intrigue.

The Cardinals have a QB (Kyler Murray) but it's thought that they MIGHT be interested in J.J. McCarthy. I say no and they do the obvious (but not necessarily the smart) thing and take Marvin Harrison Jr. At this point we might see a trade as the Chargers will most certainly not take J.J. (they already have a franchise QB in the form of Justin Herbert) despite Harbaugh's glowing over him. What Harbaugh has done is classic draft day smoke. He's hoping to get someone to overpay for pick 5.

And so on and so on.

Already some NFL draft experts are predicting as many as 10 trades in the first round. Breathless regurgitations of "this is the most intriguing draft EVER" gush out of everyone's mouth. At the back end it may be. The reality is that, while this is a relatively deep draft at certain positions, there are probably not 32 players in this draft with 1st round grades. That means that teams near the back-half will want to trade back to get the same quality of player for much less money.

We like to think that the actual NFL draft is much like the Kevin Costner movie "Draft Day", GM's wheeling and dealing and last minute shockers about player's character causing them to fall down the draft board.

The reality is it's a bunch of people in a room pouring over numbers, projections and perceived value, with a smidgen of trade value talk sprinkled in. It's too long and, for the most part, pretty boring unless your team is picking.

But, it's football. In a time when all we're given is the, so-far, very underwhelming UFL. Because of that, we'll all watch it. Then we'll listen to the talking heads after the draft giving draft grades which are about as useless as a shot clock in hockey.

All that said, I'll be watching.  Because it's football, and it's the draft, and it is fun to see where the players you enjoyed watching will end up as professionals.

And you probably will be as well.

Catching up on the Football (College and Pro) that I missed.

 Oops.

I had MEANT to do 5 posts on college and professional football a couple of weeks back but real life got in the way.  The road to Hell and good intentions and all of that.

But, so far, we have a reasonable version of football. Yes, there are some college games being postponed, to Dan Wolken's great delight, and their are no/limited fans in attendance, but we've got actual real, live football being played and that's wonderful.

This weekend, the vaunted S! E! C! comes back, with their big budgets and bigger disassociation with reality, so the National media will start paying some interest (Hi! CBS) although ESPN has been going through the motions with Game Day, and their coverage.

Saturday will be the first morning that I will get up and watch Game Day. So far, I've just been tuning in at the end for their picks. (Lee Corso is still the GOAT at pre-game shows FWIW) But what we're gaining in terms of volume is not exactly being matched by compelling games at the College level.

That said, there are a few lines that I grabbed (some early) so I think there is opportunity to be found as books still are getting a handle on how to place odds this season (early example: Houston v. N. Texas opened at 53. FIFTY THREE for two offensive minded teams. I hope you jumped on that)

I'm still high on South Alabama (+7.5 this week vs. UAB) and I cannot figure out how they got 77.5 as a total for UCF v. ECU. It's possible ECU doesn't score a point in this game. There are some juicy numbers (Iowa State -2.5) that you can still grab and some odd dogs (N. Texas at +22 to UH?? That seems large) and there are some prohibitive favorites that should not have any problem winning whatsoever. (A long list that I will not get into here)

On the NFL side things are a mess. I cannot remember a year with more star players going out for extended periods of time in week two due to torn ACLs.  And, contrary to everyone's belief, ligament tears are not a result of no training camp etc. The rash of hamstrings was certainly due to lack of conditioning, but high ankle sprains, ligament tears etc. are the results of bad hits, and there were a ton of them.

The team taking the worst of it was, unfortunately, my Niners. Not only is Garrapolo out for several weeks apparently, but they also lost Mostart (top RB) and Bosa (top DE). That's a brutal MASH list right there, and probably puts the playoffs in jeopardy considering that the Seahawks and Rams both look outstanding this year.

Not surprised: Cam looks good with the Patriots, the Ravens look like world beaters, Pittsburgh is going to be good again, the Jets are awful, Jacksonville is this year's Miami.

Surprised: The Vikings are....not good, The Texans are a train-wreck, the Titans and Colts will vie for that division. Trubisky is playing OK ball this year and what in the heck is up with the Lions? Green Bay looks much better than we all thought.

Football is back to playing on Thursday with one College and one NFL game. At least the College game is interesting. NFL Thursday games are an abomination that needs to be put out of their misery, despite the fact that last Thursday's game was entertaining at least.

As far as betting goes, I'm taking South Alabama at +7.5 but I'm having none to do with Miami v. Jacksonville. I'm not sure there are two teams that I trust least at any level of football than those two.

Good luck however you play.

The 2020 Football Season (On this blog)

Well, we are here. The 2020 College football season began last weekend, and continues tonight, while the NFL is one week away from playing what is (hopefully) a full season with no or few fans.

But, it's football, and the United States of America LOVES itself some football. So, let's go.

Over the past few years I've been doing the College Football FIVE and the NFL 3 & Out, providing 5 sports betting picks for college football and 3 picks for the NFL (of varying success. If you faded, you're not doing bad).  I'm taking a pause from that this year because of COVID-19 and there just being too many unknowns. I should be posting about the weekend's games, and might provide some insight, but I'm not willing to put selections out there right now.

On other fronts, I plan to forecast the 49er's season, and because I live in Houston I'll project the Texans, but I'm not doing full Divisional projections this year and I'm not doing the college conferences. I do plan to discuss specific items in detail, and I might make some predictions on the playoffs when (if) they happen, but for now I've decided to dial it back and focus more on my actual sports betting and less on hypothetical "plays" for publication. (If you remember, I did not necessarily bet all of the FIVE, or the 3 & out, they were just games that interested me.)

The most important bit from all of this is that we're going to have football, real, actual football being played for our enjoyment. We can only hope that it's better than the NBA has been and closer to the brilliance that the NHL has been.

If the NFL and College football are anything close to the NHL bubble product, we're going to be in for a show.

For next week, leading up to the first game on Thursday, my planned posting schedule looks like this:

Monday: San Francisco Forty Niners schedule prediction

Tuesday: Houston Texans schedule prediction

Wednesday: College Football overview

Thursday: NFL opening lines discussion.

Friday: NFL opener recap

Saturday: NFL week 1 preview post.

OK, with that, let's play some football.

Pro-Football: The NFL 3 & OUT

The NFL lines in Vegas, and other books, are notoriously tight.  The new way of thinking is that not even the sharpest of bettors can make a sustained profit betting into them.  Despite this, they still take a ton of public money.  While I call this blog "The Public Money" that doesn't mean that I want to bet like the public. Nor do I necessarily want to bet like a "Sharp", a term in sports betting that I believe is becoming very misused.

As the legalized sports betting model matures, talking about the market is expanding at a rapid pace, with little history, or fact-checking, or even independent observations, to fact-check it.  I've a feeling that there are bettors being called "sharp" who really aren't, who might have had some small-sample sized runs but who really aren't all that sharp at all.

At times, I think someone might be considered 'sharp' by a commentator because they've taken a position against "the public".  A REAL sharp would understand that, many times, the public gets it right and betting with them is not all that bad of an idea. The myth that there's a "sharp" side and a "public" side to every game is just not all that accurate.

On to the games.

1. Chicago -4.5 (In London) The old adage is that if you take the favorite, you're on the "Public's side". I disagree with this. I think being "sharp" means getting the best of the line, and making a smart bet.  The public is going to be all over the Bears here, but they're going to be betting them at -5.5 (currently) or even at -6.5 which is where I think the line might settle. -4.5 was available at the open, and I snagged it. I'll be surprised if the game finishes even close to this.  However, if the line moves across a key there will be a decent arbitrage opportunity coming back on the Raiders.

2. Arizona Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Bengals u47. When we last saw the Bengals they were laying an offensive egg against the Steelers on MNF. Admittedly, they get in easier against the Arizona Cardinals but neither team does much in the way of scoring.  Think 17-16 or something along those lines. The bottom line is these are two bad teams teeing it up on Sunday.

3. New England Patriots vs. Washington Redskins o42 - It's not that I think the Redskins can score on the Patriots, I honestly think the Patriots might cover this line on their own.  Still watching though to see if it moves down any more than it currently is.  If it moves up, I'm out on it and will look elsewhere.

Other games of interest:

Atlanta vs. Houston o49 - Two not very good offensive teams but the problem is what offensive strengths they have, play into the weaknesses of the other's defense. I can make a strong case for this game being a track meet, but it could also be one of the worst games of the week.

Baltimore vs. Pittsburgh u44.5 Currently I think this is a tight line that might take some money and loosen up a little oddly enough. I think the public is still in love with the Raven's offense and the Steeler's performance against Cincy might bring in the Sunday money.

Buccaneers vs. Saints o46.5 I could make a case where points are plentiful in this one. A pretty strong case.

NFL Week 2: The Debut 3 & OUT

Last week I did not complete an NFL post because of lack of time (and interest, on my part). I had a couple of personal plays (San Fran, New Orleans) and I went 1-1.  This week I'm bringing back the NFL 3 & OUT for your comedy pleasure.

Let's get right to the games...

1. Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) @ Detroit [-145 & +125 {O/U 47.5}

I'm not a believer in Matt Patricia as an NFL head coach. While I do think the Lions have some talent, I also think that the Chargers are the much better team here.  I will say that I've warned people I could be wrong on the Lions so take that into consideration.

Prediction: Chargers 27 Lions 13  LA Chargers to COVER -2.5


2. Seattle @ Pittsburgh (-4) [+175 -200] {O/U 46.5}

While I'm not ready to count the Steelers out after they got throttled in Foxboro, I do think this front of the schedule is brutal, and I think Seattle has a team that's going to cause a ruckus in the NFC this season.  The add of JD Clowney to the defense makes them formidable.

Prediction: Seattle 24  Pittsburgh 20  Seattle to WIN on the ML


3. Chicago (-2.5) @ Denver  [-150 & +130]  {O/U 40.5}

I did not need week 1 to tell me that Joe Flacco was not a good QB. I'm expecting Khalil Mack to feast against this O-Line. What did surprise me was just how bad Denver's defense played last week.  Also, Mitchell Trubisky is exactly the QB I thought he would be.

Prediction:  Chicago 24 Denver 7  Chicago to COVER -2.5





Going for it on 4th Down.

Jacksonville @ Houston (-9)

As I've stated online, one of my season tasks is to fad the Texans each week and track the results. Last week I picked New Orleans to cover and now I'm down one unit on this.  So this week we select Jacksonville to cover +9 and we'll see how it goes.


Enjoy the games however you play, or even if you don't play.

NFL Draft: Pay No Attention to THIS YEAR's draft grades.

I love the NFL Draft. The anticipation, waiting for your team to pick, the reaction when your team finally makes said pick, pre-draft analysis of prospects. It's great.

I HATE what follows, the grading of a current class of NFL prospects prior to the draftees even putting on a uniform.

To illustrate the problems with this I present to you two "then and now" draft analysis from two teams.  One team that I root for (The San Francisco 49ers) and one team that I follow and blog a lot about because I currently live in their city (The Houston Texans.)

The draft in question is the 2016 draft, which I use as an illustration because a.) It's three years in the past which has allowed ample time for the rookie class to shake out and b.) It's illustrative of just how many unknowns there really are in the draft process.

Let's start with the 49ers first.

Picks: (I'm using a 5.0 scale to grade players based on their performance in relation to their draft position etc. This is my scale, if you don't like it make your own.)

Round 1(7): DeForest Buckner - Oregon (DL) - Currently a starter and a player who's missed only two games since being drafted Buckner was a Pro Bowl invitee this year. That's pretty much what you want from your first pick in the draft. Grade: A 4.4/5.0

Round 1 (28): Joshua Garnett - Stanford (G) - Frequently injured Garnett is now a "depth" player who does not start. It's questionable how much longer he'll be on the team. You want better from a 1st round pic. Grade: D 1.5/5.0

Round 3 (68): Will Redmund - Mississippi State (CB) - Only spent one season with the team before being cut. Picked up by Green Bay and is currently a depth corner for them. Disappointing for a player many thought would help to build a base. Grade F 0.7/5.0

Round 4 (133): Rashard Robinson - LSU (CB) - Another player that is no longer on the roster, although he is still in the league, playing for the New York Jets. But you want starters in the 3rd round, if not stars. Grade: F 0.5/5.0

Round 5 (142) Ronald Blair III - Appalachian State (DL) - Has turned into a decent back-up/rotation DL for the team which is a pretty good return on a 5th round pick to be perfectly honest. Grade: B+ 3.8/5.0

Round 5 (145) John Theus - Georgia (OL) - Never made the team and never could pick up anywhere else in the league. Currently out of football. Grade: F 0.0/5.0

Round 5 (174) Fahn Cooper - Ole Miss (OL) Never made the team, never played a down, currently out of football. Grade: F 0.0/5.0

Round 6 (207) Jeff Driskel - Louisiana Tech (QB) - Never latched on with SF but is still in the league and played last year as a backup QB for Cincinnati. not too bad for a 6th round pick. But no help to the team itself. Grade: D+ 1.7/5.0

Round 6 (211)  Kelvin Taylor - Florida (RB) - Another player who was expected to possibly contribute, but never played a down, and is currently out of the league. Grade: F 0.0/5.0

Round 6 (213) Aaron Burbridge - Michigan State (WR) - Still another "never made the team, never played a down in the NFL" player in this draft. Considering how high the draft was ranked that's unacceptable. Grade: F 0.0/5.0

Round 7 (249) Prince Charles Iworah - Western Kentucky (CB) - To be fair, he did appear in one regular season game, so that's some production. Giving him a flat zero would be unfair for a 7th round pick not projected to make the team (which he did). Grade: F 0.1/5.0

Original Draft Grade: B+

Revised Draft Grade: D-  (12.7/55.0) or 1.1545 average points per player.

The thing is, after the 49ers completed this draft the praise could not be lathered on more deeply.  Some in the NFL considered this to be a "foundation" draft full of players, from top to bottom, that would help the team from years to come. 3 years later and it feels like a lost draft class.


Next, lets look at the Texans

Round 1 (21) Will Fuller V - Notre Dame (WR) - Fuller has been hit and miss, with his highs being really good and his lows being injuries. Still, he's been a productive player who might grade higher were he able to be healthy more often. Grade: B- 3.2/5.0

Round 2 (50) Nick Martin - Notre Dame (C) - After sitting out his first year he's started every game for the team the last two and is just about the only thing on the Texans offensive line that doesn't need fixing. Good, solid player drafted in round 2, an oddity for this team. Grade: A- 4.2/5.0

Round 3 (85) Braxton Miller - Ohio State (WR) - At this point this pick was considered a possible steal, and while he was given a chance with the team, his potential never materialized and he was eventually cut and is currently out of football. Grade: D+ 1.1/5.0

Round 4 (113) Tyler Ervin - San Jose State (RB) - Mainly a special teams player and deep depth at RB. Still, when you consider his draft position that he's on the team means that he's living up to expectations. Grade: C 2.2/5.0

Round 5 (159) K J Dillon - West Virginia (SS) - Didn't make the team and is no longer in football. Usually the Texans make these types of picks in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. Grade: F 0.0/5.0

Round 5 (166) D J Reader - Clemson (DT) - Snagged via a trade up with the Patriots Reader has become a durable starting interior defensive lineman and is a solid contributor to the defense. That's pretty good return for that position. Grade: A+ 4.6/5.0

Original Draft Grade: A+

Revised Draft Grade: C+  (15.3/30.0) or 2.55 per player.

The thing was, this was considered one of the best drafts of the season, but when you look at the numbers it was certainly above average, but not a home run.  Miller and Dillon are the two drags here, but the Texans did manage to find 3 starters, but they didn't have any real stars in this draft. While it was a good draft, it wasn't a GREAT draft by any means.

They also traded up too many times and only had six picks. This was peak Rick Smith although it might have been his best overall draft performance during his tenure.


As you can see above, it's probably recommended that you skip draft grades. As a matter of fact, I think all drafts should not be graded until three years have passed. If you look at the various regrading articles all of them have both of these teams faring worse than initial projections (even if their projections were less rosy than the ones I selected above). Here's just one example:

CBS Sports 2016 draft regrade

So, pay no attention to that draft grader behind the curtain, UNLESS he's providing grades for the 2016 draft.

Because really this is the first year we should be looking at that closely.

The Shield: Yes, THAT was a bad Super Bowl.

I'm not sure there's enough whiskey in the world to scrub the game last night fully from our memory but we might want to give it a try.

It was boring.
It was antiseptic.
It was devoid of anything memorable.

The commercials sucked.
Halftime was devoid of anything truly memorable.

It was everything corporate and sanitized about the NFL, complete with rather improbable shots of NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell walking arm in arm with Civil Rights Icons. (SEE AMERICA, NO RACIST PROBLEM HERE!!!!!)

The shame of it all is, this was one of the most exciting, fun and unpredictable NFL seasons in quite a few years, it went against recent form, we were finally putting the politics (somewhat) behind us and focusing on the ball game, we were seeing points, and crazy things and good Saturdays.

As bad as the college football season was this year the NFL was our weekend salvation on many occasions.

Then they gave us a mud-fight between an (obviously) aging Tom Brady and an (obviously) not ready for this stage Jared Goff. Both defenses came out and totally befuddled their opponents. Both quarterbacks were inaccurate and (let's face it) bad, while neither team could get a consistent running game going, and we were 3-3 at halftime and there were only 10 points left in this game, but we didn't know it at the time Maroon 5 came out and pretty much underwhelmed everyone.

In defense of the halftime show, I thought Travis Scott's entrance was good, and Big Boi did what he does which is always pretty good.  My wife enjoyed the Adam Levine strip poker game so......


But the game itself was awful.

Borderline unwatchable like so many NFL games were for so many seasons prior. It was like watching the Houston Texans and Tennessee Titans play on loop. It had within it no redeeming qualities.

What it did, was cement the Patriots as the best team in the league, as they have been for many years now. There's no denying what Tom Brady and Bill Belicheck have accomplished together, silly "underdog" memes notwithstanding. The Patriots were -2.5 favorites and were almost universally picked by everyone, including me, to win the game. What this proves is that you can call yourself whatever you want, and no matter how false that may be some teams have a dumb enough fan base that they'll lap it up and make it go viral.

Boston is living in blessed sports times. Yet I doubt any of them understand that and are still living in the 'Curse of the Bambino' era in their minds.  Still, that's better than LA fans, who just don't care.

So we end yet another football season with the wonder of what could have been.

What IF the referees in the NFC Championship hadn't blown that call? What IF Brees hadn't thrown that interception?  What if the Chiefs had a clue how to stop the run?

What if?

Possibly the perfect metaphor for the NFL today.

From that perspective this was the most fitting end.

NFL Playoffs: The Underdogs have their day(s).

Three out of the four road underdogs won last weekend in the NFL Playoffs, and even Seattle, who didn't win, covered the 2.5 point spread (losing 22-24 to Dallas).  I had stated elsewhere prior to the games that I thought an all-underdog parlay would be a good play.  It would have hit, ironically, I wish I had posted that bet here, and actually made it.

But I spent the weekend at the beach with the wife, taking a break from what has been an up and down gambling season.  OF COURSE a huge parlay that I might have made would have hit.


Colts vs. Texans: Colts Win 21-7

The score of the game makes it seem closer than it actually was. To say the Colts dominated the fraudulent Texans is an understatement. This had more the feel of a 42-3 thrashing than it did a game won by two scores.

With the Colts we learned that Andrew Luck is totally healthy, T.Y. Hilton is an elite player, and they have a good offensive line and a smart, talented defense.  This team gets the Chiefs next, so they will have their work cut out for them.

In the Texans we learned just how hollow 11-5 can be. This is a team that should have finished around 8-8 save for two games where they were gifted wins and a schedule that broke perfectly for them.  This Texans team lost to every good team they played this season. Further, there's every reason to suspect that Bill O'Brien is in out of his depth as a head coach. DeShawn Watson has regressed, the offensive line is slightly better than last year but that's faint praise, and the defense, which was supposed to be this team's rock, looked very porous and it's clear that big changes are needed.


Seahawks vs. Cowboys: Cowboys win 24-22

The image that I'll take away from this game was Allen Hurns lying on the field with his foot on back to front.  That was an awful injury and I wish him the best in his recovery. This was a win that probably secured Jason Garrett's job as a head coach as well. Jerruh seemed very happy after the win.

If Ezekiel Elliot is right then the Cowboys should always be in the game. He's a star RB in a league where having a star RB is given diminishing weight.  But the Cowboys feed off of his performance offensively and that always makes for interesting game play.  Next week the Cowboys get the Rams, which could become a battle of two very healthy, and very good running backs.

As a 49ers fan I hate saying this, but Pete Carroll should be up for coach of the year based on what he did with a totally revamped roster of mostly young players. Gone is the Legion of Boom, completely and totally, but their new defensive backfield plays smarter, is athletic, and features young, rangy players with a ton of talent. Offensively they still go through Russell Wilson, and he's in need of a better running game and more targets to hit, but they're still OK.


Chargers vs. Ravens: Chargers win 23-17

There's a lot to unpack in this game. From Tony Romo talking on-air about a pissed Philip Rivers to fans booing the Ravens anemic offense. It wouldn't surprise me all that much to see the Chargers make a run.

Melvin Gordon might not be totally healthy, but he was good enough.  For once the Chargers did not fold down the stretch and give up a late lead. Philip Rivers' greatness at the QB position is not totally appreciated by NFL fans.  They get the Patriots next, which is such an interesting matchup that I might even dedicate a blog post to it.

The Ravens on offense were offensive, but it's not entirely Lamar Jackson's fault. Their game-plan seemed off from the jump. Nor was bringing Flacco in the right answer. The Ravens need to move on from Captain Mediocrity and despite the fact that the lost the game, Jackson is their path forward. They also need to find a better O-line, that would help.


Eagles vs. Bears: Eagles win 16-15

The defining moment in this game was the partially blocked, double-doink FG attempt as time was running down that clinched the win for the Eagles. The reasons for the loss go much deeper than that FG try.

The Eagles keep rolling, proving once again that Nick Foles is the QB of record for the Eagles, not Carson Wentz. And watching Darren Sproles play ball is a good thing no matter who you are rooting for.  Next up are the Saints, and I'd be more than a little worried were I Drew Brees and Co. because the defending champs don't yet seem ready to relinquish their crown.

Bears fans are mad at Cody Parkey, some irrationally so, but its hard to analyze and easy (especially for Barstool employees) to rant and rage uncontrollably.  Why did the game-plan call for so much passing from a game-managing QB?  Where was the Bears' run game all night?  What happened to the Bears D in big moments? That said, the talent on this Bears roster is stupid good. I thought all year that they were a year ahead of schedule, next year could be "the one" for them, which is why their loss feels different than the others.

Next weekend is that dumb weekend that everyone (wrongly) calls "the best weekend in football". It's not, but you're going to get four games that might be competitive at least.

We'll take a deeper dive into them all later in the week. Probably won't have the same set-up for an all-underdog parlay unfortunately, but I'm sure there will value somewhere.

The Shield: The Turkey Day 3 and OUT

Unlike with College Football, I've been treading water in the NFL this year.  This is unusual for me as it's typically the other way around.

This week I'm keying on the 3 Thanksgiving Day games where I think there is opportunity to be found as some things are getting overlooked.


1. Chicago (-4) @ Detroit [45] - Pick: Chicago to COVER -4

The Bears look as if they're starting to round into playoff form, while the Lions are on-again/off-again and struggling to find consistency.  Uh-Oh, the Lions were on last week.  I see this as one of those "You're done eating Turkey and the game is not close so take a nap" kind of games.  Chicago rolls.


2. Washington @ Dallas (-7.5) [40.5] - Pick: Washington to COVER +7.5

OK, I get it, Alex Smith went down last week in a pile of deja vu with a horrific season-ending leg injury that looked as bad as it was.  But they didn't play AWFUL with Colt McCoy in as back-up and their defense is still pretty good.  Last weekend's results notwithstanding this is still a poorly-coached, BAD Dallas Cowboys team that's being ran into the ground by the ego of their owner.

3. Atlana @ New Orleans (-13)  [60] - Pick: New Orleans to COVER -13.

I GET that this is a HUGE line for the NFL. I get that Atlanta will be a desperate team. I get the short week, etc.  And I don't care. The Saints can do something the Rams and Chiefs cannot: Play some defense to go along with all of the points they score.  This is a damn good Saints team. I think we see how good on Thanksgiving evening while we're sneaking around looking for some leftover stuffing.


Game in which I have a rooting interest.

San Francisco @ Tampa Bay (-3.5) [55]

Tampa Bay is a tire-fire on offense right now, and they're throwing the mess that is Famous Jameis back into the fire. Despite all of their injuries the Niners have played well of late, and might even have a chance to pull the upset here.


Enjoy your Turkey, family and the games.  Don't forget to pause for a minute to consider the deeper meaning behind the Holiday.

God Bless.

The Week 11 FIVE and the Week 10 Three and OUT

One of these weeks I'd love to hit on both college and the NFL, but right now my college picks are just sad.

The Week 11 FIVE:

Last Week: 1-4 - Season total: 20-29-1

1. Ohio (-4.5) @ Miami (OH) [61.5] - Pick: Ohio to cover -4.5

2. Fresno State (-2.5) @ Boise State [54] - Pick: OVER 54

3. Troy (-1) @ Georgia Southern [47.5] - Pick: Troy to cover -1

4. Temple @ Houston (-4.5) [69] - Pick: OVER 69

5. Texas (-1.5) @ Texas Tech [63.5] - Pick: OVER 63.5


The Week 10 Three and OUT:

Last Week: 3-0  Season Total: 14-13

1. Washington @ Tampa Bay (-3) [51.5] - Pick: OVER 51.5

2. Buffalo @ NY Jets (-7.5) [37] - Pick: Buffalo to cover -7.5

3. LA Chargers (-10) @ Oakland [50.5] Pick: Chargers to cover -10.


Games in which I have a rooting interest this weekend:

NY Giants @ San Francisco (-3) [47] - The 49ers are riding with the rookie QB against a team with a pretty good defense and one of the worst offenses in the league not named the Bills. New York is imploding, Niners could win big here.

UNLV @ SDSU (-21.5) [54.5] - The Tony Sanchez experiment has failed. The only thing to do now is play out the string.  I would have fired Sanchez last week, after he officially missed qualifying for a bowl but UNLV isn't ran like that. Sanchez is very tight with the Fertitta brothers, so he probably gets a season or two more.

And finally.....

Michigan (-39) @ Rutgers [48] - Prediction: Michigan is going to go over all by their lonesome.

The Week 10 FIVE and the Week 9 Three and OUT

Coming back from an extended birthday weekend in Vegas I've got even less time to post this week than I did last.  Add to that the 2018 Breeder's Cup (more on that later) and you get the short, short version of weekly football picks this week.

The Week 10 FIVE:

Last weeks' results: 3-2. Season Results (19-25-1) [.4222222]

1. Ohio (-2.5) @ Western Michigan [65.5]  - Pick: Ohio To COVER -2.5

2. Oklahoma State (-8) @ Baylor [68] - Pick: Ok State to COVER -8

3. Houston (-13.5) @ SMU [72] - Pick: Houston to COVER -13.5

4. Air Force @ Army (-7) [43] -  Pick: Army to COVER -7

5. Georgia Tech (-6.5) @ UNC [62.5] - Pick: UNDER 62.5


Games in which I have a rooting Interest:

Fresno State (-26) @ UNLV [60] - Any way you slice it UNLV's season is all but done. Fresno State is just going to put the final nail in the coffin.

Penn State @ Michigan (-10.5) [52.5]  - Huge game for a Wolverine's team that needs to make a statement at home against a Penn State team that's not near as good as we thought at the beginning of the year.



NFL Three and OUT

Last week's results: 1-2  Season total: 11-13 (.458)

1. Tampa Bay @ Carolina (-6.5) [54.5] - Pick: Carolina to COVER -6.5

2. Kansas City (-8.5) @ Cleveland [51.5] - Pick: Kansas City to COVER -8.5

3. Houston @ Denver (-1) [46.5] - Pick: Houston to WIN on the ML


Game in which I have a rooting interest:

Oakland @ San Francisco (-3) [46] - An ugly game between two teams having rough years and which might have a say in who gets the first pick in the draft.  San Francisco could be starting Nick Mullens at QB.  Ugh.

The Week Nine FIVE and the Week Eight Three and OUT

A rare combined post. Due to real life scheduling I have a limited amount of time this week.  So here are both presented with no comment.  Sorry.


The Week Nine FIVE

1. Ball State @ Ohio (-10) - Pick: Ohio to cover -10

2. Baylor @ West Virginia (-14) - Pick: West Virginia to cover -14

3. App State (-8) @ Georgia Southern - Pick: Appalachian State to cover -8

4. Wake Forest @ Louisville (-2.5) - Pick: Wake Forest to win on the ML

5. Texas A&M @ Mississippi State (-2.5) - Pick: Texas A&M to win on the ML



The NFL Three and OUT

1. Philadelphia (-3) @ Jacksonville - Pick: Philadelphia to cover -3

2. Broncos @ Chiefs (-9) - Pick: Chiefs to cover -9

3. Saints @ Vikings (-2.5) - Pick: Vikings to cover -2.5


Since I'm picking so early the service that I use for lines (ESPN) is not showing the over/under totals for most of the games yet so I'm not picking against any this week.  This will make it harder to have a winning week because I LOVE total bets more than point spread ones.  Going forward there will be a lot more of the former coming than the latter.

Enjoy the games, see you next week.

Recapping the weekend that was. (The Week Eight FIVE and the Week Seven Three and OUT)

Into every life a little rain must fall.  Right now this betting SZN is my rain. It's not that I'm running bad overall, I'm just running bad on my FIVE and Three and OUT picks.  I'm running REALLY bad on my college football FIVE, despite having a decent record overall for the year in college football.

As a reminder, I don't play all of my FIVE picks, they're just picks. Some times the lines go wrong on game day or I find something else that moves into an area that I like. That's the problem with picking early, things aren't always available when I can finally get to a legal book.

That said, things are looking iffy for a winning FIVE result this year.

Let's see what happened:

1. Minnesota @ Nebraska (-4) [56]

Pick: Minnesota to COVER +4.5

Result: Minnesota 28 Nebraska 53

I was very surprised by this one. I thought that the Gophers would put up a fight at least against Nebraska but I was wrong. The Cornhuskers jumped on them early and scored often, grabbing Scott Frost's first win.  PJ Fleck seems to have lost this team.

2 & 3 Oregon @ Washington State (-3) [66]

Pick(s): Oregon to WIN on the ML and OVER 66.

Result: Oregon 20 Washington State 34

I had a lot riding on this game and missed all the way around. Oregon came out flat, surprisingly, and Wazzu just trucked 'em.  The Pac 12 is a mess this season and it's not looking like there's going to be clarity any time soon.

4. Ohio State (-13.5) @ Purdue [68]

Pick: Ohio State to COVER -13.5

Result: Ohio State 20 Purdue 49

This was less of an upset and more of a public mugging. Ohio State has real issues and they are all seemingly created by Urban Meyer. As a Michigan fan I can't say that I'm all torn up about this result, but it doesn't make me happy either. If you remember the wife is an Ohio State fan and this made for a sad, Saturday night.

5. Mississippi State @ LSU (-6.5) [45]

Pick: LSU to COVER -6.5

Result: Mississippi State 2 LSU 19

An ugly win is a win is a win and LSU kept me from being blanked. The Tigers are pretty good, we'll learn just how good in a couple of weeks when they take on the one team we KNOW is good: Alabama.

Total for the week 1-4  Season 16-23-1 (.400) Admittedly not where we want to be.


NFL Three and OUT

Unlike college I'm doing marginally better on the season for the pros, but I'm still lagging behind where I want to be.  And Sunday was a dog of a day to boot. Fortunately, I spent the day away from the TV running errands and spending time consoling the wife so I didn't have to sit and watch the disaster unfold.

On to the games:

1. Tennessee @ LA Chargers (-6.5) [45]

Pick: LA Chargers to COVER -6.5

Result: Tennessee 19 LA Chargers 20

So, the Titans scored a TD at the end and only lost because they went for two.  But that time expiring TD killed the cover on this one and well, that's just the way things go sometimes.  Good pick, bad result.

2. Minnesota (-3) @ NY Jets [47]

Pick: Minnesota to COVER -3

Result: Minnesota 37 NY Jets 17

The Vikings were just too good. To me this wasn't a hard game to predict, but there was a LOT of sharp money on the Jets which deflated the line to our benefit.

3. Houston @ Jacksonville (-4.5) [42.5]

Pick: Jacksonville to COVER -4.5

Result: Houston 20 Jacksonville 7

My pattern of fading the Texans didn't pay off this week, so I might put that to bed for a week or three given that their schedule coming up is awful. Then again I MIGHT decide to play them on this Thursday game against Miami depending on the line.

Weekly Result: 1-2  Season 10-11 (.476)


On to the next weekend then.....

The Shield: Week 7 Three and OUT

Some weeks the favorites roar......


1. Tennessee @ LA Chargers (-6.5) [45]

Pick: LA Chargers to COVER -6.5

The Titans have all sorts of issues right now, issues that the Chargers are going to exploit, especially at "home". (Although their home-field advantage is not the greatest). Mariota got sacked ELEVEN times last week. The Chargers have a good pass-rush.  Uh oh.

2. Minnesota (-3) @ NY Jets [47]

Pick: Minnesota to COVER -3

I've been waiting for the Vikings to have a break out game, and I think this is the slot.  The Jets have been uneven, but the Vikings defense should make things difficult for Darnold and I'm thinking Minnesota offense gets on track and they win by more than a touchdown.

3. Houston @ Jacksonville (-4.5) [42.5]

Pick: Jacksonville to COVER -4.5

I'm going back to my old strategy of fading the Houston Texans.  Yes, Jacksonville looked like crap last week but the Texans didn't look much better, and have needed fortuitous coaching calls by the other side to win all three of their games.  Considering I'm picking Tennessee to lose this game will be for the lead in the worst division in football, the AFC South.


Games in which I have a rooting interest:

LA Rams (-9.5) @ San Francisco [52.5]

The Rams are undefeated and looking like the best team in the NFL right now. San Fran overachieved against the Packers, but the Rams are much, much better than that.  It's at home and this team is trying hard, but covering here would be a huge win.

Sports Betting: Recapping the week that was. (Week 7 FIVE and Week 6 Three and OUT)

In every betting loss, or win, but especially losses, there are lessons learned. Over the weekend I learned a valuable lesson: When you notice something, don't go away from it.

NFL Three and OUT

Results: 1-2 Season Total 9-9 (.500)

I should have stuck with fading the Texans, who failed to cover yet again.

1. Carolina @ Washington (-1) [45]

Pick: Carolina to win on the ML.

Result: Carolina 17 Washington 23 - Horrid game by a Panther's defense that I thought gave them the edge.

2. Jacksonville (-3) @ Dallas [40.5]

Pick: Jacksonville to COVER -3

Result: Jacksonville 7  Dallas 40 - What in the teal HELL happened to the Jaguars?

3. Tampa Bay @ Atlanta (-3.5)  [57.5]

Pick: OVER 57.5

Result: Tampa Bay 29 Atlanta 34 - This was an easy one.  IF I would have stuck fading the Texans I would have had another winning week. Lesson learned.

College football FIVE

Results: 3-2  Season: 15-19-1 (.429)

We continue to come up JUST SHORT of a big winning week. This week started out strong (3-0) before finishing with a whimper.

1. Washington (-3) @ Oregon. [57.5]

Pick: Oregon to win on the ML

Result: Washington 27 Oregon 30 - The Ducks WANTED to mess this up, but they didn't, and in the end they put themselves in the Pac-12 driver's seat.

2. Texas Tech @ TCU (-7.5) [62]

Pick: Texas Tech to COVER +7.5

Result: Texas Tech 17 TCU 14 - HUGE win for the Red Raiders in a season where they are, surprisingly, looking like they're going to save Kingsbury's job.

3. Duke @ Georgia Tech (-3) [53.5]

Pick: Duke to COVER +3

Result: Duke 28 Georgia Tech 14 - Big win for the Blue Devils as well. They played exactly how I thought they might and beat a bad Tech team.

4. Colorado @ USC (-7) [58.5]

Pick: Colorado to COVER +7

Result: Colorado 20 USC 31 - I honestly thought the Buffs had a better than average chance of winning this game, but they got out-muscled by a USC team that's talented, but poorly coached.

5. Ole Miss (-6.5) @ Arkansas [70]

Pick: Ole Miss to COVER -6.5

Result: Ole Miss 37  Arkansas 33 - Just another weird result in a weird day of college football. So many upsets on Saturday, more on that soon, and Arkansas actually playing football for a change was one of them.

Instead of commenting on the rest of the games here I'm going to make another post about the weekend that was. It was one of those weird weekends in college football that remind us why we love the game so much.  It also made me happy to finish with a win on such an odd week.

Update on the FIVE Investment fund:  This week, according to CappedIn tracking, we swung from a slight loss on the season to a small profit.  Current balance is $68 and change to the good.  The value of ML hits y'all.  As a reminder, this is based on $100 bets that track my FIVE picks.

The Shield: The Week 6 Three and OUT

Jumping into the NFL pool early this week because, once again, I like the lines as they stand RIGHT NOW.  I'm very doubtful you'll find anything close to these on Sunday....

1. Carolina @ Washington (-1) [45]

Pick: Carolina to win on the ML.

Coming off a Monday Night thrashing the Washington Politicians are smarting. They got shellacked by the Saints and I don't see that defense doing any better of a job against Carolina. The Panthers are missing Greg Olsen but almost everyone else of note are healthy and should play. The Politicians are missing oft-injured WR Josh Doctson and that really hurts their offense. I like Carolina to snag a road win here against a member of the renewed NFC Least division.


2. Jacksonville (-3) @ Dallas [40.5]

Pick: Jacksonville to COVER -3

The Cowboys are a dysfunctional mess right now offensively, while Jacksonville had a rough week last week against what might be the AFC's best team in the Kansas City Chiefs (we'll find out this weekend) they've largely taken care of business except in a division game against the Titans.  I'd feel better about this if D.J. Hayden and Leonard Fournette could play, but my numbers still have Jacksonville beating the Cowboys be a TD even if they don't.


3. Tampa Bay @ Atlanta (-3.5)  [57.5]

Pick: OVER 57.5

Consider these numbers.  In their first 5 games of the season Tampa Bay's defense has surrendered 25, 40, 21, 30 & 48 points,  In their first 5 games Atlanta's defense has surrendered 18, 24, 43, 37 & 41.  These are no longer aberrations, they're now trends. Neither of these teams plays anything resembling NFL quality defense and even with questionable QB Jameis Winston starting in this one I think it hits the over somewhere shortly after halftime.



The Game in which I have a rooting interest:

San Francisco @ Green Bay (-9.5) [46.5]

As I stated a couple of weeks ago, all hope is lost for the Niners this season. We saw last week just how bad things are when the team got beaten by the lowly Cardinals. Yes, Green Bay is beat up, they always are, but there's nothing in the Niners recent history that suggest they're going to be able to even slow down Aaron Rodgers, much less stop him.  I think you'll be able to turn this game off at halftime because a blowout is coming.  On the bright side, Ed Oliver should be there next year when the Niners are drafting.


Good luck however you choose to play.

Recapping the weekend that was. Week 6 in College football & Week 5 for the NFL

Late Friday evening I thought: "Hey, I'm finally getting a read on this season."

Then Saturday happened, and all of my momentum got sucked out of the window.  Final tally?  2-3 on the FIVE 2-1 on the NFL Three & Out. Still, things could have been worse.....

The FIVE: 2-3 (12-17-1 Season tally [.400])

1. Utah State @ BYU (-2.5) [54]

Pick: Utah State to WIN on the ML.

Final Score: Utah State 45 BYU 20 - I think we've hit the point where BYU's tough schedule starts affecting them It also doesn't help the Cougars that Utah State is much better than a lot of us thought going into the season.

2. Eastern Michigan @ Western Michigan (-4.5) [57]

Pick: Eastern Michigan to COVER +4.5

Final Score: Eastern Michigan 24 Western Michigan 27 - At this point I was starting to think I was going to get the weekend that I needed. Either 4-1 or 5-0, but the football gods had different ideas....

3. East Carolina @ Temple (-11) [52.5]

Pick: East Carolina to COVER -11

Final Score: East Carolina 6 Temple 49 - This was a horrid miss. I honestly thought that ECU had enough to keep it close. Clearly I thought wrong.

4. LSU (-2.5) @ Florida [43.5]

Pick: LSU to COVER -2.5

Final Score: LSU 19 Florida 27 - My luck picking road teams to win is horrid right now. LSU has looked great up until this point and Florida has looked very "Meh". Total switch from trends as the Tigers seemingly forgot how to play defense.  Frustrating result.

5. Auburn (-3.5) @ Mississippi State [42]

Pick: Auburn to COVER -3.5

Final Score: Auburn 9 Mississippi State 23 - Yet another road favorite that laid an egg. It's pretty clear that I overrated Auburn in my analysis. It's time to knock them down a few pegs, especially in my ratings for their offense.


Thoughts on games in which I had a rooting interest:

New Mexico @ UNLV (-9.5) [63.5]

Final Score: New Mexico 50 UNLV 14 - We knew it was going to be tough without QB Armani Rodgers, but the level of domination that a pretty bad Lobos team showed against the Rebels was shocking. UNLV looked unprepared, unenthused and they are a mess right now. They have a better-than-expected Utah State team up next.  They might lose by 60 if they don't get things straight.  After this game I think it's time to put an end to the Tony Sanchez experiment.  It was that bad.

Maryland @ Michigan (-17.5) [48]

Final Score: Maryland 21 Michigan 42 - The team started off slowly, again, but picked it up in the second half and walked away with what looks to be, on paper, an easy win.  But it was HARD to win this game. Too hard considering the talent advantage that Michigan currently enjoys over the Terrapins. With Wisconsin coming up next week (AT Camp Randall) the team had better figure this out of it's going to be a Looooong season.



The Week 5 NFL Three & Out.

Weekend Results: 2-1 (8-7 season tally [.53333])

1. Atlanta @ Pittsburgh (-3) [57.5]

Pick: OVER 57.5

Final Result: Atlanta 17 Pittsburgh 41 - It didn't go over by much, but it DID go over and that's all that matters. Signs here that Pittsburgh is finally starting to get it together.

2. Denver @ NY Jets (-2.5) [43]

Pick: Denver to win on the ML

Final Result: Denver 16 New York Jets 34 - I have no explanation for this one. Denver made the Jets look competent on offense and that's hard to do. Case Keenum is reverting to his mean for Denver this year. He's a competent backup QB and could have a long career in that role. As a starter however he just can't get the job done.

3. Dallas @ Houston (-3.5) [45.5]

Pick: Dallas to COVER +3.5

Final Result: Dallas 16 Houston 19 - This Sunday Night game set football back about 30 years. It was a horrid game between two very bad teams. Fortunately for both of them they're in crap divisions which means that they both still have a path to winning the division and getting in to the playoffs. That this game went to overtime is a sign that all of us have done something very wrong. We need to confess our sins so that a monstrosity on this level is never seen again.

Despite the rough record my "FIVE Investment fund" is only tallied at a loss of around $75 so far this season. I get it, that's not great, but it could have been a lot worse.  What's helped me financially is the selection of a few money line upsets at pretty good odds.

For the NFL I'm up around $200 and running ahead of the VIG due again to some moneyline picks.

If I can just get some momentum built for college football we should be able to turn this around and start showing a consistent profit.

On to next week then.

The Shield: The Week 5 Three and OUT

Last week was a small step back as I try to get some traction this season. But that's the way it's going right now. One step forward, one step back.  Still, I'm 6-6 in the new(ish) season and I feel like I'm starting to get a better idea of what teams are.  I've tweaked my formulas to allow for the explosion of offense that we're seeing from new teams, as well as the new rules which make playing defense all but impossible, so I'm hoping to finally grab momentum by the horns......

If you've been following along until this point....why?  I'm kidding, of course, hopefully you are following along because I'm making this enjoyable, whether or not I'm winning.  I'm not a professional gambler, nor do I play one on TV.  Hell, I didn't even stay at a Holiday Inn last night.

All lines are as accurate as I can find them AT THE TIME OF PUBLICATION.  Just like last week. If you procrastinate, you probably won't find these lines anywhere.

To the games....

1. Atlanta @ Pittsburgh (-3) [57.5]

Pick: OVER 57.5

After only scoring 12 points against the Eagles Atlanta's offense has done the following:  31 points against the Panthers (win), 37 points against the Saints (loss) and 36 points against the Bengals (loss). Of course, they also gave up 24, 43 & 37. Pittsburgh has scored 21, 37, 30 & 14 against the Browns, Chiefs, Buccaneers & Ravens in order. They also gave up 21, 42, 27 & 46.  That's not good for under bettors if you ask me.  The play here is the over, and let these two middling, problem-filled teams battle it out for whoever wins.  That's the glorious thing about sports betting. As long as they score a ton of points we don't care.

2. Denver @ NY Jets (-2.5) [43]

Pick: Denver to win on the ML

I had to do a double take on this line to make sure it was accurate. I mean yes, the Jets played a good opening game against Detroit but have not looked good since then. While Denver just lost to a Kansas City team that might be the best in the AFC right now.  I've a feeling if you don't get on this line soon it will go the way of the Dodo pretty quickly.  Denver's defense is going to make a mess of the Jets offense. I don't foresee this one being very close.  There's a lot of optimism by Jets fans right now however which might explain why the lines are skewed as the casinos try and limit exposure.

3. Dallas @ Houston (-3.5) [45.5]

Pick: Dallas to COVER +3.5

I'd like to pick Dallas on the ML here but I just don't have enough faith in the Cowboys to do so. Yes, the Cowboys are 2-2 but the Houston Texans are butt.  They're 1-3 and by all rights should be either 0-4 or 0-3-1 if Frank Reich didn't blow it on a 4th and 4 play call (but not the decision to go for it IMO) near the end of OT.  It still took an amazing catch by DeAndre Hopkins to pull the Texans fat out of the fire.  Along with Arizona and the Bills I think Texas is among the NFL's bottom feeders. I will fade this team as a favorite until they prove me wrong.


Games in which I have a rooting interest:

Arizona @ San Francisco (-4) [41]

The 49ers looked better than I expected last Sunday against the Chargers and have not really been too far out of any game this season. Yes, yes, yes, they are 1-3 and down to their backup running back and quarterback but they've been playing OK.  The Cardinals did show some fight last week only losing to the Seahawks 20-17, prior to that they gave the Chicago Bears all they could handle in a loss.  I think this is a close game, and I might be tempted to take the under as I don't see either offense doing all that much.


Act fast kids, these offers are going fast.

Enjoy the games.

The Weekend in Football: Recapping Week 5 in College and Week 4 in the NFL

A busy week at work means a dual recap post this week.  Let's get the bad out of the way first.....

The Week 4 Three & Out.

Final record: 1-2   Season total: 6-6 (.500)

I continued my up and down run on NFL games. Making one horrid pick, one pick that had a chance of playing out and one pick that JUST made it over the line. Here's a recap:

1. Miami @ New England (-7) [47.5]

Pick: Miami to cover +7

Final score:  Miami 7 New England 38. (Loss)

I wasn't the only person who bought into Miami this week, nor was I not the only person who thought New England's problems were a little worse than advertised. Yes, all the touts "knew" that New England was going to bounce back but the truth is no one really did.  I wouldn't go so far as to say the Patriots are "fixed" after one home blowout, but they did look much more like their old selves than that had in previous weeks.

2. Houston @ Indianapolis (-1) [47]

Pick: Indianapolis to cover -1

Final Score:  Texans 37 Indianapolis 34 (Loss)

In what was quite possibly the most boring high-scoring game you will ever see, the Texans played for the tie at the end, Indianapolis played for the win and the Texans won because the Colts called a weird play on 4th and 4.  Maybe Frank Reich was telling Penn State "Hold my beer" when he called a 5 yard curl pass?  I don't know. What I do know is that fading the Texans is probably still going to be more profitable than betting with them going forward.

3. New Orleans (-3.5) @ NY Giants [50]

Pick: OVER 50

Final Score: Saints 33 Giants 18 (Win)

If you waited on this line, and I told you not to wait, then you missed this game, because it moved up to 52.5 by kick-off.  BUT, if you grabbed it early, you got a one point win. I underestimated just how bad the Giants offense was, which made this closer than it should have been in the end. There are some truly bad teams in the NFL, the Giants are one of them.


The Week 5 FIVE 

Final Record: 3-2   Season Total: 9-15-1 (.360)

Coming off last weekend's awful, horrendous, no good, very bad picks I needed a win to right the ship.  The ship is righted, and it's time to get some consistency. Remember, this is a season-long endeavor. Unlike what touts tell you, that you're going to "crush the books", the reality is everyone has good weekends and bad weekends. When you pull a stinker as I did early in the season it really magnifies it in your overall total.  On the financial front, since I've remembered to track these things on CappedIn the past two weeks, I'm actually profitable (by around $25) in total despite last week's washout.

Let's recap.

1. UT-Austin (-9) @ Kansas State [48]

Pick: UT-Austin to COVER -9

Final Score: UT-Austin 19 Kansas State 14 (Loss)

Look, I get it, next week is the Red River Shootout and UT-Austin was probably looking ahead a little. If that's the case however then shame on Tom Herman and his coaching staff who should understand the Longhorn's history in Manhattan.

2. Nevada @ Air Force (-6.5) [68]

Pick:  Nevada to COVER +6.5

Final Score: Nevada 28 Air Force 25 (Win)

I wish I would have had the faith in the Wolfpack to pull the trigger on the ML upset but the numbers just didn't add up.  That said, I thought looking at the game that the two teams were awfully similar and that it was a FG type game and that thinking proved correct. In the end, Air Force played terribly for them and that's something all the numbers in the world won't predict.

3. Oregon (-2.5) @ California [59]

Pick: Oregon to COVER -2.5

Final Score: Oregon 42 California 24 (Win)

I thought the Bears being ranked #24 was overrating them and I still think Oregon is a contender for the PAC-12 Championship.  Granted, Stanford has to stumble twice now but the Ducks are a good team that just crapped the bed last week. Oregon's offense is rolling with Herbert pulling the trigger, while the Bears are going to make a bowl at least, which is an improvement for them over recent form.

4. Utah (-1.5) @Washington State [59]

Pick: Washington State to WIN on the ML

Final Score: Utah 24 Washington State 28 (Win)

I went back to the Mike Leach well again this week, despite being burned by them last week, and they responded with possibly the most Mike Leach win ever, a win with ZERO yards rushing.  Utah has a stiff defense but some of that is smoke, mirrors, and playing a relatively weak non-conference schedule. Still, the Utes are one of those teams that you play, and then spend the next couple of weeks wishing you hadn't.  

5. Stanford @ Notre Dame (-5.5) [54]

Pick: Stanford to COVER +5.5

Final Score: Stanford 17 Notre Dame 38 (Loss)

With this new QB, and a passing game suddenly, I'm going to have to re-evaluate how I rank ND's offense going forward, and also whether or not Bryce Love for the Cardinal is truly healthy. This was a head-scratcher to me. Not that ND won, but how convincingly they accomplished the win. Looking at the schedule going forward the Irish are going to have to TRY to miss-out on the CFP playoff now.



And that's that. A little better this week in college, still middling around on the NFL.  We'll be back Wednesday and Thursday with all new picks for your fading enjoyment.