I mean. ($$$)
It's a little sad that the Chron charges readers for this, because it is on the same level that Texans fans will be able to hear on sports call-in shows from guys who watched the game in a fog of cheap beer.
I didn't watch the game so I'm not going to take a position on who should be the Texans starting quarterback in week 2, either way. But what I do know is this: There is a BIG difference between starting an NFL game and coming in with 6:00 to go, your team down 27-9 and leading your team on two scoring drives. A BIG difference.
From what I hear the first INT by Hoyer was, despite what the team is saying, his fault. I haven't seen the film for the game so I'm unsure about the other plays (the fumble and the 2nd INT). But I don't think I would be too concerned if I did.
No matter what happens, we just finished game 1 of a 16 game season. The Texans were playing against a team that I have slated to make the playoffs. The Chiefs have one of the best pass-rushers in the game, a strong defense from top to bottom, a talent infusion at WR and a RB who's among the best in the league. Nevermind a TE who's on the verge of being elite in Kelce. The Texans have only one of those things right now. And they're less talented overall than the Chiefs to boot.
It also appears that Houston is less talented in the sports writing department as well. A loss to a playoff caliber team is not a sign that the world is coming to an end. Nor would a loss next week to Carolina. But we're already seeing words like "debacle" and "disgrace" to define the week one result, which implies that a lot of local pundits think the Texans are much better than they are.
For the Texans to ever become a playoff contender they need an infusion of talent. At QB, at OL, at RB, at WR, at LB at S and at CB. Everywhere else, they're OK. If you don't understand where I'm going with that.......
Unfortunately, with an owner who's seemingly content to put mediocrity on the field and a GM who appears to have little in the way of moxie, football smarts or input into the player selection process, mediocrity is just about all that Texans fans can hope for.
Still, we've just finished week 1. Let's wait to cut the cord on Hoyer and other starters until we have a better sample size. A move to Mallett in week 2 would signify someone is panicking.
Monday, September 14, 2015
College Football: My horrible, awful, very bad week.
After last Saturday, and then Sunday, with my NFL fantasy results, I can safely say that (this week) I know nothing about football. As I sat in my hotel room with the wife Saturday night and watched the scores roll by I knew I was in for a rough week. Then, when BYU hit a 2nd consecutive Hail Joseph to pull out a victory over Boise St. I knew I was just flat out screwed.
The carnage? 0-5 ATS and a pathetic 3-2 SU. This lowers my early season standings to 3-7 ATS and only 7-3 SU. It got worse when I checked my NFL fantasy and saw that I went 0-4 (pending) and the Texans came out and looked like crap. All that I need to complete the weekend of suck is a 49ers humiliation tonight.
It happens. One thing that people don't say about sports betting is that picking winners is not a science. You can run all of the numbers and have confidence in your picks and then the games get played. All that said, I can't remember a week where I've gone 0-fer, which makes me re-evaluate things this time around.
The good thing about football is that, for the most part, you have a next week. Which I, fortunately do. I also realize that, by just picking 5 games, I'm limiting myself. This is not something I would do were I betting in Vegas. I'd have flexibility up until before kick-off to watch the lines move etc. The good news is the goal, proving that you can, with just a little bit of preparation and knowledge, finish a season over 50%, is still in play*.
Week 3 will be better. One thing's for sure, it can't get any worse.
*Again, remember the goal here. I'm not selling you picks and I'm hoping that you don't put any stock into any of this. I'm not a professional gambler, I'm an accountant who likes to wager some coin when I'm in Vegas. I also think that tout services are overpriced and unnecessary for the typical sports better. Only a select few consistently beat the books. And it's very hard for them to get any action down. Just read these for enjoyment, because that's all I'm doing it for.
The carnage? 0-5 ATS and a pathetic 3-2 SU. This lowers my early season standings to 3-7 ATS and only 7-3 SU. It got worse when I checked my NFL fantasy and saw that I went 0-4 (pending) and the Texans came out and looked like crap. All that I need to complete the weekend of suck is a 49ers humiliation tonight.
It happens. One thing that people don't say about sports betting is that picking winners is not a science. You can run all of the numbers and have confidence in your picks and then the games get played. All that said, I can't remember a week where I've gone 0-fer, which makes me re-evaluate things this time around.
The good thing about football is that, for the most part, you have a next week. Which I, fortunately do. I also realize that, by just picking 5 games, I'm limiting myself. This is not something I would do were I betting in Vegas. I'd have flexibility up until before kick-off to watch the lines move etc. The good news is the goal, proving that you can, with just a little bit of preparation and knowledge, finish a season over 50%, is still in play*.
Week 3 will be better. One thing's for sure, it can't get any worse.
*Again, remember the goal here. I'm not selling you picks and I'm hoping that you don't put any stock into any of this. I'm not a professional gambler, I'm an accountant who likes to wager some coin when I'm in Vegas. I also think that tout services are overpriced and unnecessary for the typical sports better. Only a select few consistently beat the books. And it's very hard for them to get any action down. Just read these for enjoyment, because that's all I'm doing it for.
Thursday, September 10, 2015
College Football 2015: The Week Two Five
In week one we learned some things about some teams (i.e. Texas is bad) and still have questions about others. (Are Notre Dame and Texas aTm that good? Or were their opponents that bad?) and we also now have teams looking to replace key contributors (BYU, VaTech & Arizona) while teams we thought would be good (Utah State) looked horrible.
With that in mind, let's jump right into this weeks Five:
(lines courtesy of 5Dimes and are effective as of Thursday, 09/10/2015 @ 6:00 AM - Future line moves will not be accounted for since you get what you lay for, when you lay 'em.)
1. Kansas State (-17) @ UTSA - There are always "helmet" games in College Football that give you opportunities. This is one of those. UTSA looked good against Arizona, keeping the game within 10 points on the road. Kansas State beat South Dakota (of the FCS) 34-0 but lost their starting QB for the season in doing so. I still see K-State winning here, but not by 17. UTSA to cover.
2. Utah State @ Utah (-13) - Utah dominated Michigan, which is not a good team right now but certainly better than where Utah State is. Under new OC Josh Heupel the Aggies could only generate 250 yards of total offense. In fact, they needed an 88 yard punt return in the 4th quarter to eek out a 12-9 win, at home, against Southern Utah of the FCS. Utah has a much stouter defense and a much better offense. This one could get ugly. Utah to cover.
3. UTEP @ Texas Tech (-21) - When you consider that Texas Tech couldn't beat Sam Houston State by 21, I don't see any way they can do better against UTEP. And while UTEP looked just north of awful against Arkansas, the only thing the Red Raiders have in common with the Razorbacks this year is an "R" at the beginning of their mascot name. Take UTEP to cover. I would lean ML but I think Tech's offense will be too much.
4. Washington State @ Rutgers (-2.5) - I am not suggesting that Rutgers is a world beater, but the Cougars looked pathetic in losing to (3-9 in 2014) FCS member Portland State. I think Wazzoo is in for a terrible year. The fan base is already freaking out because it doesn't appear there's enough money in the athletic department budget to fire Mike Leach before the end of the year. Rutgers to cover, and then some.
5. Boise State (-2.5) @ BYU - This would be a good game that I wouldn't touch save one thing: BYU QB Taysom Hill was lost for the season against Nebraska. The problem is the Broncos were less than impressive against Washington. I don't think that matters. Boise State to cover and roll as BYU tries to work things out.
Other games:
Louisiana Tech (-1) @ Western Kentucky - The Wahoos beat Vanderbilt last week and LaTech humiliated FCS Southern. That said, I like Western Kentucky here on the ML. Although not strongly enough to put them in my Five.
Houston @ Louisville (-13) - Houston fans have high hopes for this game after crushing an FCS opponent (sort-of) last week. Louisville surprised a lot of people by playing Auburn tough. I can't bet a team coached by Bobby Petrino, and they certainly don't go in the Five but I'm leaning Louisville here to cover at home.
Buffalo @ Penn State (-21) - Short and sweet: If the Nittany Lions can't protect Hackenberg then they aren't going to be beating anybody by 21.
Iowa (-3.5) @ Iowa State - If I felt I knew more about the Cyclones I'd take Iowa State here and it would have been in my Five. I don't, so it's not. Still, I'm leaning ISU on the ML.
Oklahoma (-1) @ Tennessee - This COULD be the game of the week not involving Michigan State and Oregon. That said, I'm still not sure about OU so it's not in my five. My gut feeling says Tennessee on the ML though.
Kentucky @ S. Carolina (-7.5) - Last week, S. Carolina squeaked out a cover. This week I'm dropping them out of my Five but predicting they do the same thing against a Kentucky team whose fan base is already scheduling Midnight Madness.
Oregon @ Michigan St (-4) - We are going to find out most of what we need to know about both of these teams. Right now, I like Michigan State to win by a touchdown. But I don't like that enough that I feel comfortable about it. Let's just say the minimum bet on Michigan State and keep the game the hell away from the Five.
Rice @ Texas (-14) - As putrid as the Longhorns looked last week against ND I'm not sure they can SCORE 14, much less win by that much. That said these are the Owls, who only seem to play well against the Longhorns once every 20 years. That said Rice on the ML but with zero confidence (and zero risk).
LSU (-4.5) @ Mississippi State - Hail State, and Hail the upset against an LSU team that didn't get a warm-up game and which looked horrible on the road. The hard part of this is, I picked LSU to win the West. This will hurt, but it's not a killer. Hail State to cover.
And finally.......
Oregon State @ Michigan (-16.5) - I hate, hate, hate, hate, hate, hate this line for Michigan. I'm not even sure Michigan can beat the Beavers right now. Still, I think they might win, getting better every week remember, but I can't see any way they win by two touchdowns, two extra points and a field goal. Oregon State to cover but lose. (we hope)
Remember: These picks are for entertainment purposes only and are worth exactly what you're paying for them and I'm risking on them. My sole purpose on this blog is to prove that a normal guy, working a day job, can come in just over 50% with some research and knowledge of the game.
Enjoy the weekend.
With that in mind, let's jump right into this weeks Five:
(lines courtesy of 5Dimes and are effective as of Thursday, 09/10/2015 @ 6:00 AM - Future line moves will not be accounted for since you get what you lay for, when you lay 'em.)
1. Kansas State (-17) @ UTSA - There are always "helmet" games in College Football that give you opportunities. This is one of those. UTSA looked good against Arizona, keeping the game within 10 points on the road. Kansas State beat South Dakota (of the FCS) 34-0 but lost their starting QB for the season in doing so. I still see K-State winning here, but not by 17. UTSA to cover.
2. Utah State @ Utah (-13) - Utah dominated Michigan, which is not a good team right now but certainly better than where Utah State is. Under new OC Josh Heupel the Aggies could only generate 250 yards of total offense. In fact, they needed an 88 yard punt return in the 4th quarter to eek out a 12-9 win, at home, against Southern Utah of the FCS. Utah has a much stouter defense and a much better offense. This one could get ugly. Utah to cover.
3. UTEP @ Texas Tech (-21) - When you consider that Texas Tech couldn't beat Sam Houston State by 21, I don't see any way they can do better against UTEP. And while UTEP looked just north of awful against Arkansas, the only thing the Red Raiders have in common with the Razorbacks this year is an "R" at the beginning of their mascot name. Take UTEP to cover. I would lean ML but I think Tech's offense will be too much.
4. Washington State @ Rutgers (-2.5) - I am not suggesting that Rutgers is a world beater, but the Cougars looked pathetic in losing to (3-9 in 2014) FCS member Portland State. I think Wazzoo is in for a terrible year. The fan base is already freaking out because it doesn't appear there's enough money in the athletic department budget to fire Mike Leach before the end of the year. Rutgers to cover, and then some.
5. Boise State (-2.5) @ BYU - This would be a good game that I wouldn't touch save one thing: BYU QB Taysom Hill was lost for the season against Nebraska. The problem is the Broncos were less than impressive against Washington. I don't think that matters. Boise State to cover and roll as BYU tries to work things out.
Other games:
Louisiana Tech (-1) @ Western Kentucky - The Wahoos beat Vanderbilt last week and LaTech humiliated FCS Southern. That said, I like Western Kentucky here on the ML. Although not strongly enough to put them in my Five.
Houston @ Louisville (-13) - Houston fans have high hopes for this game after crushing an FCS opponent (sort-of) last week. Louisville surprised a lot of people by playing Auburn tough. I can't bet a team coached by Bobby Petrino, and they certainly don't go in the Five but I'm leaning Louisville here to cover at home.
Buffalo @ Penn State (-21) - Short and sweet: If the Nittany Lions can't protect Hackenberg then they aren't going to be beating anybody by 21.
Iowa (-3.5) @ Iowa State - If I felt I knew more about the Cyclones I'd take Iowa State here and it would have been in my Five. I don't, so it's not. Still, I'm leaning ISU on the ML.
Oklahoma (-1) @ Tennessee - This COULD be the game of the week not involving Michigan State and Oregon. That said, I'm still not sure about OU so it's not in my five. My gut feeling says Tennessee on the ML though.
Kentucky @ S. Carolina (-7.5) - Last week, S. Carolina squeaked out a cover. This week I'm dropping them out of my Five but predicting they do the same thing against a Kentucky team whose fan base is already scheduling Midnight Madness.
Oregon @ Michigan St (-4) - We are going to find out most of what we need to know about both of these teams. Right now, I like Michigan State to win by a touchdown. But I don't like that enough that I feel comfortable about it. Let's just say the minimum bet on Michigan State and keep the game the hell away from the Five.
Rice @ Texas (-14) - As putrid as the Longhorns looked last week against ND I'm not sure they can SCORE 14, much less win by that much. That said these are the Owls, who only seem to play well against the Longhorns once every 20 years. That said Rice on the ML but with zero confidence (and zero risk).
LSU (-4.5) @ Mississippi State - Hail State, and Hail the upset against an LSU team that didn't get a warm-up game and which looked horrible on the road. The hard part of this is, I picked LSU to win the West. This will hurt, but it's not a killer. Hail State to cover.
And finally.......
Oregon State @ Michigan (-16.5) - I hate, hate, hate, hate, hate, hate this line for Michigan. I'm not even sure Michigan can beat the Beavers right now. Still, I think they might win, getting better every week remember, but I can't see any way they win by two touchdowns, two extra points and a field goal. Oregon State to cover but lose. (we hope)
Remember: These picks are for entertainment purposes only and are worth exactly what you're paying for them and I'm risking on them. My sole purpose on this blog is to prove that a normal guy, working a day job, can come in just over 50% with some research and knowledge of the game.
Enjoy the weekend.
Tuesday, September 8, 2015
College Football: And we're off.
By all accounts, last week's opening slate of college football games were pretty good. This is unusual for the opening week because the big names are typically ordering cupcakes to start the year. This has changed somewhat with the advent of the "neutral site" kick-off classic series that you're starting to see from time to time.
Looking over the first weekend of football I'm fairly pleased with my start. I went 4-1 Straight up and 3-2 versus the spread. While that's certainly not setting the world on fire 80% straight up and 60% against the spread are numbers I'd take all year long.
So, without further ado, here are my thoughts, takeaways and free, meaningless opinion on the opening weekend that was. Starting with the five games I really liked.....
1. North Carolina vs. South Carolina (-2) I will admit to a large amount of trepidation over this game but, in the end, North Carolina decided they really didn't want to be in the end zone all that much and gave the game away. Still, I'll take the Gamecock cover and smile.
2. Oklahoma State (-23.5) vs. Central Michigan - At 24-13 this game was lower scoring than I thought it would be, but the spread was just about right. By this time I was starting to feel pretty good about myself. And then the Texas teams started playing.....
3. [2]TCU (-17) vs Minnesota - My mantra for the rest of this season is that "I will not bet on TCU". Every time I do I read them wrong. This is a pass team for me now. Still, 2-1 ain't half bad. Of course, the Horned Frogs didn't look half good either.
4. Washington vs Boise State (-12) - I still think Boise State is overrated this year and Washington, who didn't look near as good as I thought they might, exposed that. Of course, the team that I picked to beat Boise State in the Mountain West looked even worse so......
5. Arizona State vs Texas aTm (-3.5) - This is going to be a problem going forward because I'm not sure if aTm is that good or if Arizona State is that bad. I thought the Sun Devils would be a strong team this year. Possibly even a contender in the PAC 12. Unless they fix their offense quickly I don't see that happening now.
Other games.....
In retrospect, my first thought on Louisville vs. Auburn was right but for different reasons than I had first predicted. Auburn's offense was better than I thought, but their defense was not as stout as I had predicted. They still couldn't cover against Bobby Petrino's Louisville team, and I still think they are overrated.
For all of the praise heaped on UCLA, they still couldn't cover a 20 point spread against a pretty pedestrian Virginia team. Before we start placing them in the top 10 (as I've heard some analysts try to do already) let's give them a couple of weeks to figure out what they have.
Arkansas covered. That's all I can really say about that. Again, once they face stronger competition we'll know more.
Ah Nebraska. If you had the under in this game I apologize to you for one of the worst beats of the week. Don't they teach the Blackshirts how to defense the Hail Joseph in Lincoln?
I was wrong about one thing, there WAS a line for Tech vs. Sam Houston. And the Red Raiders didn't cover. Here's the scary thing if you're a Tech fan. Your offense looked pretty good (as did QB Mahomes) against an FCS defense. On the flipside your defense looked overmatched against an FCS offense. Additionally, Tech fans (and Baylor fans for that matter) need to understand the difference between a victory (big) and a win (not so big). Beating either SMU or an FCS opponent should not be something you gloat about. You're expected to win these games. Act like it.
Here I was thinking that Oklahoma was going to struggle against the Zips and all they did was win and cover. Granted, in the 1st half that appeared to be in doubt. Once the second half started OU remembered they were in a game and ran away with it. I think Akron is not a horrible opponent so this might bode well for the Sooners.
For all of the Hosannas being thrown toward Notre Dame it's important to remember that they basically faced a UT-Austin team that's playing without either a quarterback, or an offensive plan. I expected QB Swoopes to show SOME improvement, he didn't. In fact, he looked worse. And while I still think Charlie Strong is a good football coach he might not be the right guy to lead a program like Texas. He's starting to look overmatched and lost. This is another game where I walked away with no insight as to the true level of either team. (Well, except that Texas is bad. I'm just not sure how bad yet)
You probably didn't pay much attention to the game but the most impressive thing (other than Ohio State) that we saw all weekend MIGHT have been West Virginia trouncing Georgia Southern 44-0. This is a Georgia Southern team that went undefeated in the Sun Belt last year, finished 9-3 and was hosed out of a bowl. Either they've really regressed, or the Mountaineers are going to be tough this year.
Alabama can run the ball. This we know. And while they didn't exactly struggle with Wisconsin, their defense did give up some plays. The Badgers are not chopped liver, but the fact remains that they haven't had a good performance since before the B1G championship game clobbering at the hands of Ohio State.
One thing I am pretty sure of right now. Ohio State is the number 1 team in the country. I'm still not sure about 2-10 but numero uno is looking pretty solid. Kudos to Braxton Miller. It's almost unfair that this team is this talented at so many positions. One final thought: we were seeing a depleted Ohio State team last night with their best defender, and 3 of their best receivers on suspension. Look out Hawaii.
No Top 10 rankings this week. I'm not going to rank the teams until I see more from them. Typically I don't even worry about that until after week 5. I might have to wait longer this year to see some games play out. I can however tell you who the teams at the bottom are.....
If the FBS played under promotion/relegation rules these teams would be relegated:
5. UT-Austin - Just awful football played by a school that has so many resources they should never get to this point.
4. University of Central Florida - They lost to Sun Belt bottom feeder Florida International....at home.
3. Tulane - This is partially due to their new, God awful turf although losing to Duke, by 30 at home, doesn't help.
2. Kansas - When your team can't even get spiking the ball to stop the clock so you can kick a FG to possibly tie South Dakota State at HOME play right......Is it basketball season yet?
1. Washington State. - Mike Leach's team lost to Portland State (3-9 last year in the FCS) at home. The sad thing is it doesn't appear that the school can afford to fire Leach and pay his buyout clause.
All the overrated things:
1. Teams that ran up the score against FCS opponents. - Georgia Tech scored 69, Oregon scored 61 (and gave up 42), Rutgers scored 63 and Ole Miss scored 76 points. All of them played against FCS teams, none of which (excepting Eastern Washington, maybe) are expected to do much this year.
2. Utah State, by me. They needed a 4th quarter 88-yard touchdown return to beat Southern Utah of the FCS 12-9. Clearly part of the problem with OU's offense last year was USU's new Offensive Coordinator Josh Heupel. Yuck.
3. College Kickers. - There were more missed field-goals, kick-offs out of bounds and horrible punts in one weekend than you'll see in an entire year of the NFL. That said, this is also part of the reason college football is so fun. The kicking game is an adventure.
4. Penn State's Offensive Line - The Nittany Lions gave up 10 (ten) sacks in Temple's first victory over them since 1941, before the US formally entered WWII.
5. Pre-season top 25 lists. - Just stop it National Media, please just stop it. Release your first rankings the same time the College Football Playoff committee does, or at least wait until we get a couple of weeks into conference play.
Hard Luck award:
Co winners: BYU and Kansas State who both lost their starting QB's for the season due to injury.
Runner-up: Virginia Tech, who's starting QB will be out 4-8 weeks with a broken collarbone.
One week down, can't wait for Thursday.
Looking over the first weekend of football I'm fairly pleased with my start. I went 4-1 Straight up and 3-2 versus the spread. While that's certainly not setting the world on fire 80% straight up and 60% against the spread are numbers I'd take all year long.
So, without further ado, here are my thoughts, takeaways and free, meaningless opinion on the opening weekend that was. Starting with the five games I really liked.....
1. North Carolina vs. South Carolina (-2) I will admit to a large amount of trepidation over this game but, in the end, North Carolina decided they really didn't want to be in the end zone all that much and gave the game away. Still, I'll take the Gamecock cover and smile.
2. Oklahoma State (-23.5) vs. Central Michigan - At 24-13 this game was lower scoring than I thought it would be, but the spread was just about right. By this time I was starting to feel pretty good about myself. And then the Texas teams started playing.....
3. [2]TCU (-17) vs Minnesota - My mantra for the rest of this season is that "I will not bet on TCU". Every time I do I read them wrong. This is a pass team for me now. Still, 2-1 ain't half bad. Of course, the Horned Frogs didn't look half good either.
4. Washington vs Boise State (-12) - I still think Boise State is overrated this year and Washington, who didn't look near as good as I thought they might, exposed that. Of course, the team that I picked to beat Boise State in the Mountain West looked even worse so......
5. Arizona State vs Texas aTm (-3.5) - This is going to be a problem going forward because I'm not sure if aTm is that good or if Arizona State is that bad. I thought the Sun Devils would be a strong team this year. Possibly even a contender in the PAC 12. Unless they fix their offense quickly I don't see that happening now.
Other games.....
In retrospect, my first thought on Louisville vs. Auburn was right but for different reasons than I had first predicted. Auburn's offense was better than I thought, but their defense was not as stout as I had predicted. They still couldn't cover against Bobby Petrino's Louisville team, and I still think they are overrated.
For all of the praise heaped on UCLA, they still couldn't cover a 20 point spread against a pretty pedestrian Virginia team. Before we start placing them in the top 10 (as I've heard some analysts try to do already) let's give them a couple of weeks to figure out what they have.
Arkansas covered. That's all I can really say about that. Again, once they face stronger competition we'll know more.
Ah Nebraska. If you had the under in this game I apologize to you for one of the worst beats of the week. Don't they teach the Blackshirts how to defense the Hail Joseph in Lincoln?
I was wrong about one thing, there WAS a line for Tech vs. Sam Houston. And the Red Raiders didn't cover. Here's the scary thing if you're a Tech fan. Your offense looked pretty good (as did QB Mahomes) against an FCS defense. On the flipside your defense looked overmatched against an FCS offense. Additionally, Tech fans (and Baylor fans for that matter) need to understand the difference between a victory (big) and a win (not so big). Beating either SMU or an FCS opponent should not be something you gloat about. You're expected to win these games. Act like it.
Here I was thinking that Oklahoma was going to struggle against the Zips and all they did was win and cover. Granted, in the 1st half that appeared to be in doubt. Once the second half started OU remembered they were in a game and ran away with it. I think Akron is not a horrible opponent so this might bode well for the Sooners.
For all of the Hosannas being thrown toward Notre Dame it's important to remember that they basically faced a UT-Austin team that's playing without either a quarterback, or an offensive plan. I expected QB Swoopes to show SOME improvement, he didn't. In fact, he looked worse. And while I still think Charlie Strong is a good football coach he might not be the right guy to lead a program like Texas. He's starting to look overmatched and lost. This is another game where I walked away with no insight as to the true level of either team. (Well, except that Texas is bad. I'm just not sure how bad yet)
You probably didn't pay much attention to the game but the most impressive thing (other than Ohio State) that we saw all weekend MIGHT have been West Virginia trouncing Georgia Southern 44-0. This is a Georgia Southern team that went undefeated in the Sun Belt last year, finished 9-3 and was hosed out of a bowl. Either they've really regressed, or the Mountaineers are going to be tough this year.
Alabama can run the ball. This we know. And while they didn't exactly struggle with Wisconsin, their defense did give up some plays. The Badgers are not chopped liver, but the fact remains that they haven't had a good performance since before the B1G championship game clobbering at the hands of Ohio State.
One thing I am pretty sure of right now. Ohio State is the number 1 team in the country. I'm still not sure about 2-10 but numero uno is looking pretty solid. Kudos to Braxton Miller. It's almost unfair that this team is this talented at so many positions. One final thought: we were seeing a depleted Ohio State team last night with their best defender, and 3 of their best receivers on suspension. Look out Hawaii.
No Top 10 rankings this week. I'm not going to rank the teams until I see more from them. Typically I don't even worry about that until after week 5. I might have to wait longer this year to see some games play out. I can however tell you who the teams at the bottom are.....
If the FBS played under promotion/relegation rules these teams would be relegated:
5. UT-Austin - Just awful football played by a school that has so many resources they should never get to this point.
4. University of Central Florida - They lost to Sun Belt bottom feeder Florida International....at home.
3. Tulane - This is partially due to their new, God awful turf although losing to Duke, by 30 at home, doesn't help.
2. Kansas - When your team can't even get spiking the ball to stop the clock so you can kick a FG to possibly tie South Dakota State at HOME play right......Is it basketball season yet?
1. Washington State. - Mike Leach's team lost to Portland State (3-9 last year in the FCS) at home. The sad thing is it doesn't appear that the school can afford to fire Leach and pay his buyout clause.
All the overrated things:
1. Teams that ran up the score against FCS opponents. - Georgia Tech scored 69, Oregon scored 61 (and gave up 42), Rutgers scored 63 and Ole Miss scored 76 points. All of them played against FCS teams, none of which (excepting Eastern Washington, maybe) are expected to do much this year.
2. Utah State, by me. They needed a 4th quarter 88-yard touchdown return to beat Southern Utah of the FCS 12-9. Clearly part of the problem with OU's offense last year was USU's new Offensive Coordinator Josh Heupel. Yuck.
3. College Kickers. - There were more missed field-goals, kick-offs out of bounds and horrible punts in one weekend than you'll see in an entire year of the NFL. That said, this is also part of the reason college football is so fun. The kicking game is an adventure.
4. Penn State's Offensive Line - The Nittany Lions gave up 10 (ten) sacks in Temple's first victory over them since 1941, before the US formally entered WWII.
5. Pre-season top 25 lists. - Just stop it National Media, please just stop it. Release your first rankings the same time the College Football Playoff committee does, or at least wait until we get a couple of weeks into conference play.
Hard Luck award:
Co winners: BYU and Kansas State who both lost their starting QB's for the season due to injury.
Runner-up: Virginia Tech, who's starting QB will be out 4-8 weeks with a broken collarbone.
One week down, can't wait for Thursday.
Friday, September 4, 2015
College Football: Take a breath Michigan Fan.
Well, that's out of the way.
All that's left now is the silly analysis from silly analysts.
In that spirit, I'll add my own.
1. This was never going to be an immediate turn-around. Although I was hoping that Michigan could squeak out a win in this game, to be honest, I was never very confident they would. In my first run at analyzing the season I had this game as a loss. After thinking a little harder I made it a win. Granted, most of that was probably based on fandom more than actual X's and O's. Optimism that the situation at QB wouldn't be quite that bad.
2. It's too early to bail on Rudock. In moments of frustration last night, especially after he Schaubed the Pick-six, I was calling for Morris to be put in. I think ALL of Blue Nation was calling for the same thing. But the guy actually played OK in the second half outside of that interception. In fact, the team looked a LOT better offensively in the 2nd half than in the 1st. Either way Harbaugh decides to go the reality is his championship winning QB is probably not on this roster.
3. There WAS improvement. Despite struggling in the run game, the O-line looked MUCH better in pass protection than at any time during the Brady Hoke era. The defensive front 7 looks formidable and Jabrill Peppers is a legitimate stud DB. In fact, I thought the defense played well enough to win the game. Had Rudock been able to hit wide open WR's down the field on 3 separate occasions (instead of air-mailing them) Michigan could have won that game.
4. I'm unsure whether De'Veon Smith is the RB Michigan is looking for or not. Yes, the O-Line did not do a great job blocking. But De'Veon ran himself out of some gains as well. He missed holes on several occasions, running right into defenders. He needs to learn patience in the worst way.
All in all it was an OK start to the Harbaugh era, from a coach who has lost his first game at the other schools that he turned around. For all of the hope and hype of Harbaugh coming to Michigan, we're now looking at the reality that this is a rebuilding process. One that's going to take more than one off-season and a few good recruiting classes.
All that's left now is the silly analysis from silly analysts.
In that spirit, I'll add my own.
1. This was never going to be an immediate turn-around. Although I was hoping that Michigan could squeak out a win in this game, to be honest, I was never very confident they would. In my first run at analyzing the season I had this game as a loss. After thinking a little harder I made it a win. Granted, most of that was probably based on fandom more than actual X's and O's. Optimism that the situation at QB wouldn't be quite that bad.
2. It's too early to bail on Rudock. In moments of frustration last night, especially after he Schaubed the Pick-six, I was calling for Morris to be put in. I think ALL of Blue Nation was calling for the same thing. But the guy actually played OK in the second half outside of that interception. In fact, the team looked a LOT better offensively in the 2nd half than in the 1st. Either way Harbaugh decides to go the reality is his championship winning QB is probably not on this roster.
3. There WAS improvement. Despite struggling in the run game, the O-line looked MUCH better in pass protection than at any time during the Brady Hoke era. The defensive front 7 looks formidable and Jabrill Peppers is a legitimate stud DB. In fact, I thought the defense played well enough to win the game. Had Rudock been able to hit wide open WR's down the field on 3 separate occasions (instead of air-mailing them) Michigan could have won that game.
4. I'm unsure whether De'Veon Smith is the RB Michigan is looking for or not. Yes, the O-Line did not do a great job blocking. But De'Veon ran himself out of some gains as well. He missed holes on several occasions, running right into defenders. He needs to learn patience in the worst way.
All in all it was an OK start to the Harbaugh era, from a coach who has lost his first game at the other schools that he turned around. For all of the hope and hype of Harbaugh coming to Michigan, we're now looking at the reality that this is a rebuilding process. One that's going to take more than one off-season and a few good recruiting classes.
Thursday, September 3, 2015
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