Last week I mentioned a Deadspin article surrounding Pregame.com and, more specifically, site founder RJ Bell.
In the interest of being fair, here is Mr. Bell's rebuttal claiming 28 factual errors in the Deadspin story.
My view has been very clear from the beginning: I see no value in so-called "tout" pick-buying services and my opinion has not changed. Caveat Emptor and all of that.
All that said, I DO have issues with the transparency of ALL sites when it comes to
1. Who it is exactly that's making the picks, and how verifiable their backgrounds are. I post here under my real name, am 100% honest about my record and don't sell my picks. They're published free for everyone to read well before game time. You also know who I am, or I'll tell you if you ask. I'm not a so-called "expert". I'm just a guy who likes to wager.
2. Why are historical picks so difficult to track. Again, ALL of my prior picks are still here, to be searched, without using a CAPTCHA or other technology, just look back in the history.
I would recommend frequenting a so-called "tout site" even just for entertainment purposes if they could follow those two rules.
Oh, and...
3. Don't make deals with sportsbooks where you take a share of referred player's losses. That's just dishonest as hell.
Anyway, read the Deadspin article and then read Mr. Bell's rebuttal and make up your own mind.
You're all adults. (I think)
Wednesday, June 29, 2016
Thursday, June 23, 2016
The Groove. Or, getting back into it.
Football season is coming and that means a whole new chance to make bad football picks for the coming year. To try, hopelessly, to break the magical 53% barrier that is necessary to book a profit against the vigorish of the sports books.
I've already started looking at schedules and games for the 2016/2017 season and even taking a peek at the early lines.
One change from last year, I'm swearing off fantasy football (and daily fantasy) to focus on old-school sports betting this year. As a reminder, I don't always make the bets that I post, they're for tracking and entertainment purposes only. (In my day job it would not be wise for me to risk gaming in a manner that's anything but 100% legal.)
That said, I will be making some trips to Vegas this year so many of the bets that I talk about I WILL be actually making. So that's one change.
As an aside, if you haven't read this article about Pregame.com and RJ Bell's pick-selling operation you should. As always, my mission is that you don't need to buy picks, you can do just as poorly on your own.
The good news is that we're getting closer and closer to legalizing online gaming across the country so pretty soon lurking about the shadows (or posting picks for entertainment) will be a thing of the past.
I cannot wait for that day.
Until then, I will keep working on my week 1 "Five" and try to avoid my early season slump this year.
Happy Gaming!
I've already started looking at schedules and games for the 2016/2017 season and even taking a peek at the early lines.
One change from last year, I'm swearing off fantasy football (and daily fantasy) to focus on old-school sports betting this year. As a reminder, I don't always make the bets that I post, they're for tracking and entertainment purposes only. (In my day job it would not be wise for me to risk gaming in a manner that's anything but 100% legal.)
That said, I will be making some trips to Vegas this year so many of the bets that I talk about I WILL be actually making. So that's one change.
As an aside, if you haven't read this article about Pregame.com and RJ Bell's pick-selling operation you should. As always, my mission is that you don't need to buy picks, you can do just as poorly on your own.
The good news is that we're getting closer and closer to legalizing online gaming across the country so pretty soon lurking about the shadows (or posting picks for entertainment) will be a thing of the past.
I cannot wait for that day.
Until then, I will keep working on my week 1 "Five" and try to avoid my early season slump this year.
Happy Gaming!
Friday, June 3, 2016
BadSports: If Baylor won't self-regulate, the NCAA and Big XII should regulate for them.
You should not be shocked that Baylor is now refusing to release recruits from their Letter of Intent pledges in the wake of Art Briles' firing, and the scandals that have rocked the athletic department.
Baylor Recruits Still Waiting to be Released from their Letters of Intent. Bruce Feldman, FoxSports.com
This should not surprise anyone. At no point, up to an including now, has Baylor demonstrated that they've learned any lesson, that they're willing to clean up their house and that they are ready to act in a fair, honorable fashion.
This is an athletic program that has lost not only their way, but the guiding faith that supposedly makes it against the rules for non-married students to kiss on campus (Rape, or sexual assault by Football players notwithstanding).
While I have little sympathy for, as Baylor alums are harping, the "players there who did not sexually assault co-eds (they contributed to the 'see something, do-nothing' culture that thrived under Briles) my concern does extend from the victims (who I hope all receive fat financial settlements from Baylor at least) and to the players who signed letters not realizing that they were agreeing to play for a combination of Sodom and Gomorrah, and to whom all of this came as a shock. (To be fair, however, I do doubt that few of them are wanting to leave due to concern over sexual assaults, and more out of fear that the team is going to suck, and suck royally, over the course of their careers.)
That aside it appears through all of this that Baylor has still not learned their lesson. Lest we forget, this is the second time a Baylor program has faced allegations of covering up, and ignoring, serious criminal offenses. So while it's easy to write this off as "Something that festered under the current administration" it's starting to get pretty clear that there's something rotten on the East bank of the Brazos River and it's festering.
In the above article Collis Cobb states that he hopes Baylor will "do the right thing" and release his son from his LOI. To me this seems like a false hope because there's little evidence that Baylor has had any proclivity toward 'the right thing' athletically for a while now. Because of this, it's time for both the NCAA and Big XII to step in and begin to make things right.
First, the Big XII. It's an open secret that the only reason Baylor was included in the initial Big XII was due to the political pressure of then-Texas-Governor (and Baylor Alum) Ann Richards. In fact, Baylor always seemed like the "odd man in" considering that Texas Christian University (a school of similar size, make-up, but with a far better TV market (Ft. Worth vs. Waco) was left out, as was the University of Houston. With Ann Richards (sadly) gone it makes no sense for the powers of the Big XII to act as if Baylor serves any further function within the conference. They should begin preparations to eject them immediately.
Pushing out Baylor and adding back in BYU, Cincinnati and either UCF or UH makes way more sense than allowing Baylor to stay. They've proven that they are incapable of handling big-time college sports and should be immediately shown the door.
Second the NCAA, who gave Southern Methodist University the so-called "death penalty" for paying athletes, should consider the same for Baylor Football. I realize that the common-perception is that the NCAA will "never" issue the death penalty again, but I can think of no better reason for doing so than for an institution that now has a police blotter that included teammate murder, drug dealing, and several convictions and indictments for sexual assault.
While paying players is against the rules, the violations for which Baylor is charged (and, in some cases, has been convicted of) are against the law. Baylor is not being accused of illegal cash payments, they're being accused of covering up allegations of rape and sexual assault, of failing to suspend players and conducting sham investigations designed to allow players to play, and wins to keep coming. If they are found guilty of these things they should lose the ability to contest athletic events for a couple of years.
I realize that these prescriptions may seem harsh (and unfair to Baylor alums and fans) but apparently harsh is the medicine that Baylor needs. In their charter, they are a Baptist University that promotes Christian morals and missions. They've clearly lost their way, falling victim to idolatry as they worship at the feet of the Idol that is McLane Stadium.
The Isrealites, having constructed a gold cow to worship while Moses was in the hills, were forced to burn their cow, pour the ashes in a nearby river and drink from it, which made them all sick, in repentance for the act. In the same vein Baylor needs to see their athletic department burned to the ground, and the ashes poured into the Brazos, while Baylor leadership and students become sick from the loss.
The good news is, on the heels of that the Jewish nation built the Tabernacle, which was used to house the Ark of the Covenant, which was installed in the Promised Land after they spent time in the wilderness as punishment.
Baylor needs to have their athletic program torn down, burned and the ground salted from which it sprang. After they spend some time in the wilderness they can begin to rebuild. Hopefully whatever they wind up with is built on stronger, more guiding principles than what they have now.
Baylor Recruits Still Waiting to be Released from their Letters of Intent. Bruce Feldman, FoxSports.com
He is not optimistic that Baylor will relent and "do the right thing." Last week he tried to get Baylor to release his son. Then on Tuesday, Grobe called and said if the Cobbs still aren't satisfied after they meet the new coach in person (Wednesday night), he'd sign the release.However, after meeting with Grobe, Collis Cobb informed him and defensive coordinator Phil Bennett that his son's mind is made up that he no longer wants to go to Baylor, since there is too much uncertainty about the program."Bennett told us that we'd have to follow through with the appeal process," Collis Cobb said. "What I took from that is they're not going to release anybody."
This should not surprise anyone. At no point, up to an including now, has Baylor demonstrated that they've learned any lesson, that they're willing to clean up their house and that they are ready to act in a fair, honorable fashion.
This is an athletic program that has lost not only their way, but the guiding faith that supposedly makes it against the rules for non-married students to kiss on campus (Rape, or sexual assault by Football players notwithstanding).
While I have little sympathy for, as Baylor alums are harping, the "players there who did not sexually assault co-eds (they contributed to the 'see something, do-nothing' culture that thrived under Briles) my concern does extend from the victims (who I hope all receive fat financial settlements from Baylor at least) and to the players who signed letters not realizing that they were agreeing to play for a combination of Sodom and Gomorrah, and to whom all of this came as a shock. (To be fair, however, I do doubt that few of them are wanting to leave due to concern over sexual assaults, and more out of fear that the team is going to suck, and suck royally, over the course of their careers.)
That aside it appears through all of this that Baylor has still not learned their lesson. Lest we forget, this is the second time a Baylor program has faced allegations of covering up, and ignoring, serious criminal offenses. So while it's easy to write this off as "Something that festered under the current administration" it's starting to get pretty clear that there's something rotten on the East bank of the Brazos River and it's festering.
In the above article Collis Cobb states that he hopes Baylor will "do the right thing" and release his son from his LOI. To me this seems like a false hope because there's little evidence that Baylor has had any proclivity toward 'the right thing' athletically for a while now. Because of this, it's time for both the NCAA and Big XII to step in and begin to make things right.
First, the Big XII. It's an open secret that the only reason Baylor was included in the initial Big XII was due to the political pressure of then-Texas-Governor (and Baylor Alum) Ann Richards. In fact, Baylor always seemed like the "odd man in" considering that Texas Christian University (a school of similar size, make-up, but with a far better TV market (Ft. Worth vs. Waco) was left out, as was the University of Houston. With Ann Richards (sadly) gone it makes no sense for the powers of the Big XII to act as if Baylor serves any further function within the conference. They should begin preparations to eject them immediately.
Pushing out Baylor and adding back in BYU, Cincinnati and either UCF or UH makes way more sense than allowing Baylor to stay. They've proven that they are incapable of handling big-time college sports and should be immediately shown the door.
Second the NCAA, who gave Southern Methodist University the so-called "death penalty" for paying athletes, should consider the same for Baylor Football. I realize that the common-perception is that the NCAA will "never" issue the death penalty again, but I can think of no better reason for doing so than for an institution that now has a police blotter that included teammate murder, drug dealing, and several convictions and indictments for sexual assault.
While paying players is against the rules, the violations for which Baylor is charged (and, in some cases, has been convicted of) are against the law. Baylor is not being accused of illegal cash payments, they're being accused of covering up allegations of rape and sexual assault, of failing to suspend players and conducting sham investigations designed to allow players to play, and wins to keep coming. If they are found guilty of these things they should lose the ability to contest athletic events for a couple of years.
I realize that these prescriptions may seem harsh (and unfair to Baylor alums and fans) but apparently harsh is the medicine that Baylor needs. In their charter, they are a Baptist University that promotes Christian morals and missions. They've clearly lost their way, falling victim to idolatry as they worship at the feet of the Idol that is McLane Stadium.
The Isrealites, having constructed a gold cow to worship while Moses was in the hills, were forced to burn their cow, pour the ashes in a nearby river and drink from it, which made them all sick, in repentance for the act. In the same vein Baylor needs to see their athletic department burned to the ground, and the ashes poured into the Brazos, while Baylor leadership and students become sick from the loss.
The good news is, on the heels of that the Jewish nation built the Tabernacle, which was used to house the Ark of the Covenant, which was installed in the Promised Land after they spent time in the wilderness as punishment.
Baylor needs to have their athletic program torn down, burned and the ground salted from which it sprang. After they spend some time in the wilderness they can begin to rebuild. Hopefully whatever they wind up with is built on stronger, more guiding principles than what they have now.
Tuesday, May 10, 2016
Sports Betting: The Media Does Not Understand How it works.
Vegas has released their O/U win totals for the 2016 season today and you're already seeing a ton of stories like the following:
Las Vegas Projected Win Totals for the Texans, Rest of the NFL. Matt Young. Chron.com
The O/U numbers released by the bookmakers are NOT how many games the books are projecting the teams will win. Neither are point spreads Vegas telling you which team they think will win.
The reason for lines, the ONLY reason for lines, is to try and balance the dollars bet on both sides of the wager. In other words, Las Vegas doesn't necessarily think that the Texas are going to win 8.5 games. What it means is that they think 50% of bettors will bet that the Texans will win more than 8.5 games and 50% of bettors will bet that they win less.
THAT is what lines do and THAT is why they are set.
Could it be that the bookmaker in question thinks the Texans will win 7 games? Sure, or even 9, or 10, but that's not why the line is set where it is.
It's amazing how often members of the media, even so-called "betting experts" who give out betting tips (usually on talk radio) get this simple concept wrong.
Las Vegas Projected Win Totals for the Texans, Rest of the NFL. Matt Young. Chron.com
That sounds great except for one thing....one BIG thing....Now that the NFL draft is over, we have a better feel for what every team is going to look like come September.That means it's time to make some friendly wagers. Point spreads for the first 16 weeks of the regular season already have been published, and now we have projected win totals for each team, thanks to the folks at BetOnline.
The O/U numbers released by the bookmakers are NOT how many games the books are projecting the teams will win. Neither are point spreads Vegas telling you which team they think will win.
The reason for lines, the ONLY reason for lines, is to try and balance the dollars bet on both sides of the wager. In other words, Las Vegas doesn't necessarily think that the Texas are going to win 8.5 games. What it means is that they think 50% of bettors will bet that the Texans will win more than 8.5 games and 50% of bettors will bet that they win less.
THAT is what lines do and THAT is why they are set.
Could it be that the bookmaker in question thinks the Texans will win 7 games? Sure, or even 9, or 10, but that's not why the line is set where it is.
It's amazing how often members of the media, even so-called "betting experts" who give out betting tips (usually on talk radio) get this simple concept wrong.
Friday, May 6, 2016
Horse Racing: Kentucky Derby Betting Spread (Exaggerator)
The first Saturday in May. Spring has sprung and the 142nd Kentucky Derby will be ran. Off of last year's Triple Crown winning performance by American Pharoah it's easy to think that attendance and interest will be at an all time high. I won't be at a track on Saturday, but I will be at one on Friday and I'll lay my bets then. Here's what I'm thinking.
1. $20 Win - Exaggerator. If you didn't see this horse close in the Santa Anita Derby then you should probably go find the video. All he did was pass some very stiff competition as if they were standing still. It was the most impressive closing quarter that I've seen from a 3yo this year. As such, I'm backing Exaggerator heavily and will be using him in all my exotics.
2. $10 Win - Creator. I've a superstition about betting the gray (don't do it) but I'm going to break that here as I think this is a horse on the come. Not a ton of confidence, but would feel pretty silly leaving him out.
3. $10 Win - Outwork. If this was a beauty competition, not a race, Outwork is your winner hands down. He's also pretty fast and comes from the stable of Mike Repole who is brash, kind of annoying and typical New Jersey, but who has a history of putting forth winning horses. Besides, it feels like Pletcher is due.
4. $1-Tri Box - 3 (Creator), 11 (Exaggerator), 13 (Nyquist), 15 (Outwork) - Basically my top 3 plus the race favorite. $12 bucks into the track's till.
5. $2 - Supr - 11 (Exaggerator), 13 (Nyquist), 5 (Gun Runner), 2 (SuddenBreakingNews)
6. (Added) $2 ATB Whitmore. Given the Buzz on this horse, and if the odds are right, I feel like I'm going to regret leaving him out.
6. (Added) $2 ATB Whitmore. Given the Buzz on this horse, and if the odds are right, I feel like I'm going to regret leaving him out.
Every year I try to hit the Derby Superfecta Straight up, and every year I fail. It's quite possibly the hardest bet to hit in horse racing. Yes, I could box it or key on a certain horse but I do that in my Trifecta. Besides, there's a ton of fun in just taking a $2 shot at something that could pay out on the thousands. I have, in the past, hit a straight Superfecta before. Not at the Derby however so we'll try and try again.
Good luck in whatever you do Saturday, and support Texas Racing if you can by going to a track and placing a bet, watching the races and having a good time.
Horse Racing: Kentucky Oaks Betting Spread. (Taxable)
Here are the positions that I'm taking for the 2016 Kentucky Oaks.
1. $20 Win - Taxable. - This is my main horse in this race and I'll be keying her in all of my exotics as well. She's lightly raced but I like her outside position, her works leading up to the race and I think Jockey Corey Nakatani and Trainer Steve Asmussen will take this daughter of Tapit to the winner's circle.
2. $10 Win - Land Over Sea - Another horse that, on paper, might not make much sense to bet but this is a wide open race and I think you're going to have to take a price. Any time I can get John Velasquez at 5-1 or better I jump at the chance.
3. $10 Win - Cathryn Sophia - I'm somewhat tepid about this pick but I'm running under the theory that you can draw a line through this filly's last race. Up until that point she felt unbeatable.
4. $1 Tri - 14 (Taxable) with 13 (Land Over Sea), 12 (Cathryn Sophia), 11 (Rachel's Valentina), 3 (Lewis Bay), 2 (Weep No More)
I might make the Tri bet a straight box b/c I'm not entirely comfortable putting all of my eggs in the Taxable basket. That said, if I do that I'll cut the box to four horses, eliminating Lewis Bay and Weep No More due to cost ($24 vs $60 or $120) which I think might get too step for the potential payouts.
1. $20 Win - Taxable. - This is my main horse in this race and I'll be keying her in all of my exotics as well. She's lightly raced but I like her outside position, her works leading up to the race and I think Jockey Corey Nakatani and Trainer Steve Asmussen will take this daughter of Tapit to the winner's circle.
2. $10 Win - Land Over Sea - Another horse that, on paper, might not make much sense to bet but this is a wide open race and I think you're going to have to take a price. Any time I can get John Velasquez at 5-1 or better I jump at the chance.
3. $10 Win - Cathryn Sophia - I'm somewhat tepid about this pick but I'm running under the theory that you can draw a line through this filly's last race. Up until that point she felt unbeatable.
4. $1 Tri - 14 (Taxable) with 13 (Land Over Sea), 12 (Cathryn Sophia), 11 (Rachel's Valentina), 3 (Lewis Bay), 2 (Weep No More)
I might make the Tri bet a straight box b/c I'm not entirely comfortable putting all of my eggs in the Taxable basket. That said, if I do that I'll cut the box to four horses, eliminating Lewis Bay and Weep No More due to cost ($24 vs $60 or $120) which I think might get too step for the potential payouts.
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