As we Prepare to Boot 2020 Into the Dustbin of History....It's Prediction Time.

 There is no other way to say this....2020 has been awful. 

From a global pandemic that was utterly mishandled by world governments to a United States response that was ham-fisted, inept in many areas and downright fraudulent in some, it's been a year of missed opportunities, dumb governance and, for too many, lost income and loved ones.

Normally, when I do these "prediction" posts, I try to keep it light and come up with ridiculous items that JUST border on the verge of being possible.  But this year I'm not feeling all that humorous, so I'm going to make some serious predictions at five different levels (National, Texas, Nevada, Houston, Las Vegas). Unlike previous years, these are things that I actually believe are going to happen within the Nation, the City and State where I currently reside, and the City and State that I like to visit frequently,

Since we're all anxious to put 2020 behind us, let's dive right in.

National Predictions:

1. Before the end of 2021, the movement to replace Biden as President will be well underway.

Like Biden or not, there is no doubt that the man is suffering from senility at this point in his life. It's been sad really to watch him get lost, confused, and be unable to answer even the simplest questions without visual (or audio) aids.

2. Regardless of who controls the Senate, the Democrats will be unable to deliver on many of the grand plans they have promised.

For one, they had control of Congress and the White House during Obama's first term, and what they provided the country was the fetid mess that is ObamaCare. Two, and the country are going to discover very quickly that all of the grand plans will not be accomplished through their "soak the rich" tax plans. There's just not enough money in the kitty to fund all that they are proposing.

3. The National response to COVID-19 under a Biden regime will be just as inept as it has been under the Trump Regime.

Grand pronouncements to the contrary, they're not going to be able to pull this off because they are going to rely on the government bureaucracy to pull it off and, as we've seen, that is a recipe for full-on disaster.

Predictions for the State of Nevada.

1. The budget situation is going to be dire. Sisolak will have no clue how to fix it.

The fact that Governor Gene Sisolak is not an effective executive is going to come into full relief, more than it already has, in 2021. He's incapable of suggesting the taxation of sacred cows (i.e. the mining industry), he's a man of no executive creativity and the people are going to see this as budgets get cut and the State sinks further into a fiscal abyss.

2. Nevada WILL get a lottery.

While I'm not entirely sure of the exact mechanizations in Nevada State Law for this (for example, does it require voter approval or no? Not sure) but I do predict that one of the first things attempted to try and bring in new revenue will be attempts to establish both multi-state progressive lotteries and those dreaded scratch-off cards.  Sub-prediction: The revenues gained "for the children" will be far less than projections.

Predictions for the City of Las Vegas:

1. It's going to be a ROUGH 2021

I don't see conventions coming back prior to 2022, and even then, some of these bigger events are in the processing of finding new homes, and cities willing to roll out the red carpet for them. Given the increasing costs of visiting the Strip companies, who are also employing people suffering from tough times, are going to start to look for other options.

2. One big casino operator is going to abandon Las Vegas.

The obvious answer is Sands, who is already exploring it, but I'd keep my eye on the new Caesars. As the Las Vegas Strip continues to remake itself into an overpriced bordello there's going to be less and less value there. The old saying was "gamblers still gonna gamble" but the Strip's problem is that they've abandoned the gambler.

Predictions for Texas:

1. The population bleed from the big cities will continue.

As the progressive, anti-business, ideologies continue to permeate the ruling classes of city governance people are going to continue to choose to move out and drive back in rather than living in an increasingly high-crime environment that boasts higher tax rates and fewer services.

2. No, Virginia, Texas is NOT going to approve sports betting in any form in 2021.

Texas will not expand gambling until the time that the State turns blue. No matter how much sense this one thing makes (casino gambling is a different matter altogether) it will not happen.

3. The newest "Blue Star" for the media is going to be Lina Hidalgo.

Harris County's grad-student County Judge is already receiving glowing profiles from the Texas Lock-Step Political Media, and even some National Media, despite the fact that she's not even really running the County (Rodney Ellis is running the county). She's going to get a hard push to challenge Abbott for Governor, or possibly Dan Patrick for Lt. Governor.

Predictions for Houston:

1. There will be a major flood in 2021.

The City will be 100% unprepared to deal with it.  For all of the talk, post Harvey, about "something, must be done!" The fact is little actually HAS been done. A lot of this is due to Judge Lina Hidalgo deciding to put everything back in the sausage making machine in the name of "social justice" (which is odd, because flood water knows nothing about this).

2. Houston will miss-out on the "tech boom" that's coming to Texas.

Yes, they welcomed HP, but that was outside of the city limits. Austin will receive most of the windfall from this, and Houston will be left behind with the city leadership wondering what the heck happened.

OK, that's where I'm going to leave it for now. I'm hoping that 2021 is the year where we all get the vaccine, it works, and we can get back to something resembling normal and place politics and government back in the background where they belong.

Happy New Year and good luck to all of you.

In the Matter of Gil Alexander v. The Westgate SuperBook (Buyer Beware)

This is, on the surface, now a blog concerned about gambling and sports betting. Because of this I invoke Blogger rule 3.2.1 Subsection 32 and am going to type some words about the subject above.

If you've not been following along, here's a brief summary:

Back in March(?) Mr. Alexander made some futures wagers on Iga Swiatek to win the French Open at odds in the range of 30-1. These bets apparently varied in size, but some were around the $1000 level which would have paid Mr. Alexander $30K.

Fast forward to today, and Mr. Alexander went to various books to cash his winning tickets. According to Mr. Alexander, all of the books paid him his winnings except one: The Westgate Superbook. According to the Superbook they had cancelled all wagers in that pool and later put up a substitute pool due to the French Open occurring later in the year. Mr. Alexander was refunded his $1,000 and then all Heck broke loose on VSiN.

The brewhaha broke out yesterday morning when Mr. Alexander, on his VSiN morning show, went on around an hour long stem-winder against the Superbook, what he termed their "vague" rules, and the practice of sports books in general not being transparent when bets are cancelled.

This has, as you can imagine, created quite the tempest in the teapot that is sports wagering.

Ignoring the back-and-forth that's going on at VSiN right now (which is a blog post in and of itself, but is also something I consider to be an internal, company matter) what's emerged from all of this are two camps.

First: The 'Your ticket, Your responsibility' camp. - These people feel that Mr. Alexander is 100% in the wrong and that he should have understood the rules when making a bet. In many (not all) cases they know the staff at Westgate and frequent the place.  According to their tweets and statements they feel that the Book has zero obligation to notify gamblers of changes, and that the onus lies on the bettor to monitor their own bets.

Second: The "Books are bad" camp. - This group is against the book, has in many cases promised to never play at the Superbook again (I don't believe that but OK) and feels that the books should do anything that they can to ensure bettors know about the status of their bets.

I would like to propose a 3rd camp, my camp.

"I'm responsible for my own shit but the place that I do business can retain my loyalty by practicing good customer service."

In his interview this morning on the VSiN show "Follow the Money" SuperBook Godfather Jay Kornegay felt that the Book did "as much as they could" to notify bettors of changes to their French Open futures by: A. Having a staffer tweet it out on their personal Twitter account and B.) Talking about it on Follow the Money on VSiN.  While I will agree this is certainly "something" I do think the book COULD have gone further.

No, I do not think that the Superbook should have "taken a full page ad out in newspapers: (which, besides being a bogus argument also shows just how far behind the times Nevada sports books really are) but I do think they could have done four simple (cheap) things to advertise that a major change had taken place.

1. Put a notice up on their board that French Open wagers have been cancelled.  Do one of those *ASTERISKS SURROUNDING A STATMENT IN ALL CAPS* messages, prominently displayed.

2. Put up some signage in the Book stating that all French Open Futures have been cancelled and that a new pool was forthcoming.

3. Put a Pop-up Message on their APP that all French Open Futures have been cancelled and that a new pools was forthcoming.

4. Send an e-mail blast to ALL customers stating that French Open futures were cancelled and that a new pools was forthcoming.

Notice, no where in these, am I asking the book to track the wagers and individually notify the player (which many have suggested), I don't think the onus is on them to that degree. In today's age, with technology being what it is, and given that most bettors place their bets with a Player's Card, and said cards have an e-mail attached to them, it should not be difficult for that to happen. If you don't think that the casinos understand who is betting with them and do not use those card's already for bet tracking purposes you, like NV sportsbooks, are behind the times.

My point is that NV sportsbooks especially have a LONG WAY to go to provide even moderate customer service to bettors. The idea that "buyer beware" and that every bettor has the sole onus of calling into a book to check the status of current wagers is as insipid as saying that the book has the obligation to notify each and every bettor of a change. Neither is true.

As with everything, this will ultimately be adjudicated by the NV Gaming Commission. To be honest, I figure they will rule with the SuperBook because the Commission is not a player's advocate and has traditionally sided with the House.

On another note, one would think that Sportsbooks would be more communicative to it's customers during a pandemic that has thrown everything out of whack and has made improved communication more important than ever. Vegas Sports Betting industry constantly likes to come onto various media outlets and pound their chests that they are "The Industry Gold Standard"

It's past time they started acting like it.

And, if you're a bettor, that's your investment, please take some time to understand at least the basics about it.

Court finds for no one, everyone was wrong and the industry is still a mess.  Case Closed.

Catching up on the Football (College and Pro) that I missed.

 Oops.

I had MEANT to do 5 posts on college and professional football a couple of weeks back but real life got in the way.  The road to Hell and good intentions and all of that.

But, so far, we have a reasonable version of football. Yes, there are some college games being postponed, to Dan Wolken's great delight, and their are no/limited fans in attendance, but we've got actual real, live football being played and that's wonderful.

This weekend, the vaunted S! E! C! comes back, with their big budgets and bigger disassociation with reality, so the National media will start paying some interest (Hi! CBS) although ESPN has been going through the motions with Game Day, and their coverage.

Saturday will be the first morning that I will get up and watch Game Day. So far, I've just been tuning in at the end for their picks. (Lee Corso is still the GOAT at pre-game shows FWIW) But what we're gaining in terms of volume is not exactly being matched by compelling games at the College level.

That said, there are a few lines that I grabbed (some early) so I think there is opportunity to be found as books still are getting a handle on how to place odds this season (early example: Houston v. N. Texas opened at 53. FIFTY THREE for two offensive minded teams. I hope you jumped on that)

I'm still high on South Alabama (+7.5 this week vs. UAB) and I cannot figure out how they got 77.5 as a total for UCF v. ECU. It's possible ECU doesn't score a point in this game. There are some juicy numbers (Iowa State -2.5) that you can still grab and some odd dogs (N. Texas at +22 to UH?? That seems large) and there are some prohibitive favorites that should not have any problem winning whatsoever. (A long list that I will not get into here)

On the NFL side things are a mess. I cannot remember a year with more star players going out for extended periods of time in week two due to torn ACLs.  And, contrary to everyone's belief, ligament tears are not a result of no training camp etc. The rash of hamstrings was certainly due to lack of conditioning, but high ankle sprains, ligament tears etc. are the results of bad hits, and there were a ton of them.

The team taking the worst of it was, unfortunately, my Niners. Not only is Garrapolo out for several weeks apparently, but they also lost Mostart (top RB) and Bosa (top DE). That's a brutal MASH list right there, and probably puts the playoffs in jeopardy considering that the Seahawks and Rams both look outstanding this year.

Not surprised: Cam looks good with the Patriots, the Ravens look like world beaters, Pittsburgh is going to be good again, the Jets are awful, Jacksonville is this year's Miami.

Surprised: The Vikings are....not good, The Texans are a train-wreck, the Titans and Colts will vie for that division. Trubisky is playing OK ball this year and what in the heck is up with the Lions? Green Bay looks much better than we all thought.

Football is back to playing on Thursday with one College and one NFL game. At least the College game is interesting. NFL Thursday games are an abomination that needs to be put out of their misery, despite the fact that last Thursday's game was entertaining at least.

As far as betting goes, I'm taking South Alabama at +7.5 but I'm having none to do with Miami v. Jacksonville. I'm not sure there are two teams that I trust least at any level of football than those two.

Good luck however you play.

The 2020 Football Season (On this blog)

Well, we are here. The 2020 College football season began last weekend, and continues tonight, while the NFL is one week away from playing what is (hopefully) a full season with no or few fans.

But, it's football, and the United States of America LOVES itself some football. So, let's go.

Over the past few years I've been doing the College Football FIVE and the NFL 3 & Out, providing 5 sports betting picks for college football and 3 picks for the NFL (of varying success. If you faded, you're not doing bad).  I'm taking a pause from that this year because of COVID-19 and there just being too many unknowns. I should be posting about the weekend's games, and might provide some insight, but I'm not willing to put selections out there right now.

On other fronts, I plan to forecast the 49er's season, and because I live in Houston I'll project the Texans, but I'm not doing full Divisional projections this year and I'm not doing the college conferences. I do plan to discuss specific items in detail, and I might make some predictions on the playoffs when (if) they happen, but for now I've decided to dial it back and focus more on my actual sports betting and less on hypothetical "plays" for publication. (If you remember, I did not necessarily bet all of the FIVE, or the 3 & out, they were just games that interested me.)

The most important bit from all of this is that we're going to have football, real, actual football being played for our enjoyment. We can only hope that it's better than the NBA has been and closer to the brilliance that the NHL has been.

If the NFL and College football are anything close to the NHL bubble product, we're going to be in for a show.

For next week, leading up to the first game on Thursday, my planned posting schedule looks like this:

Monday: San Francisco Forty Niners schedule prediction

Tuesday: Houston Texans schedule prediction

Wednesday: College Football overview

Thursday: NFL opening lines discussion.

Friday: NFL opener recap

Saturday: NFL week 1 preview post.

OK, with that, let's play some football.

You Cannot Block Every Horrid Person on Social Media (That doesn't mean you cannot try)

 I'm writing this Tuesday after logging off from work, looking at news stories featuring horrid fires in California and Hurricane Laura bearing down on the Texas/Louisiana State Line.

I'm also coming off a stint on Twitter, America's cess-pool, and I have some thoughts on all of this that you may, or may not (if you're one of those Twitter turds in the pool) want to read.

Firstly, it's become very easy for us to project our personal hatred on whatever Golems we have personally created as evil incarnate, onto the poor who are left with precious few life choices and no easily attainable options.

Many look at those displaced by the California fires and their first response is: "Well, they voted in these stupid liberal Democrats who refuse to clear the underbrush so....they deserve it."  

Or you may look at the people in the petrochemical industry in Lake Charles and think: "Big oil is going to super heat the Earth and kill mankind so.....they deserve it."

But, do they? Really?

I'm here to tell you that no. They do not.

Instead of your haughtiness and disdain they deserve your empathy and (most importantly) support, if you can provide it. In most cases the victims are of the innocent sort, poor, overwhelmingly minority and the exact same people that the Caucasian BLM supporters claim to be in support of while simultaneously tearing down.

Yes, the oil/gas/petrochemical industry is not an environmental saint, but they also provide meaningful, living wages for many in an area that offers few. In fact, in many areas of Southwest Louisiana the only employment options are petrochemical factories, casinos, or the service industry, none of which are valued by society's "elites", despite the fact that these same "elites" would break out in hives if they had to perform the duties of the serfs.

The are overwhelmingly poor FWIW.

"Well, they can go get green jobs" is something that you might say.

You can say this but that would be incorrect. Because, you see, even in the most pie-in-the-sky "green" plans the mentions of "good paying, green jobs" are always something that fit under the "to be created" category, something the Government promises will materialize but has no meaningful plan to produce. In short, there are no jobs. It's either the factories, casinos, hotels, restaurants or these retail shops that people are stuck with, or nothing at all.

"Well, they can MOVE" you counter.

Except they cannot.  For the most part these are very poor people, living paycheck to paycheck with few options for escape. They don't have the savings to up and move, and to ride out the time that it would take for them to obtain a new job. In many cases it's the safety nets in these states where they have no options, that keeps them where they are. It's also families and support systems that anchor them in place.

Secondly, these things that you hate, Republicans, Democrats, the ruling class, Evil Big Oil, is really anger directed at the ruling class.

The dark secret to all of this is that it's not the ruling class who is going to be feeling the pain. The Executives and politicians in areas that are burning in California are in no danger, they've traveled far away, in most cases to their 2nd or 3rd homes (Even Bernie Sanders, that great Socialist, owns 3) and while they will suffer some property damage they can either write the rules in their favor for help (politicians) or have plenty of insurance to make them whole (executives and...politicians).

The ruled, what's left of the middle class and the working poor, don't have that luxury. In many cases they lose their only residence, are forced to evacuate to a shelter, and have little ammunition to fight the insurance companies in the manner the ruling class has.

It's the same for the people in Lake Charles, who are looking at losing everything with nothing in their arsenal to combat it. Their communities are looking at the very real prospect that they are going to be destroyed, not partially, but utterly and completely blown away.

Today, on Twitter, I have blocked almost 100 people who used this tragedy to pile on, to make a political point against the opposite side. I will continue doing so. While I believe it is impossible to block them all I am going to continue to do so. Not because I don't want to hear opposing points of view, because I do, which is why I leave the comments on here, but because I do not consider their points of view to be valid. I don't believe that any point of view that cheers on human pain and suffering to be relevant or worth listening to. Do I believe they have a right to say it? Yes, but I also have a right to tune them out. You do as well.

Lastly, much of this rhetoric is force-fed to us by the media and the ruling class. They feed it to the masses to try and divide us, to keep us from realizing where the true power lies. The most 'vital' Democratic function you can do is to engage, it's not to vote (which is actually the laziest form of participation in a Democracy). A voting populace who then tunes out is an elected official's dream. It's the media's dream as well, because they NEVER HOLD THEM ACCOUNTABLE.

But an engaged electorate, who holds the elected officials to the rules and laws that they themselves lay upon the ruled, is the most powerful function in a healthy Nation, and it's the one that takes the most work.

If a politician breaks the rules? Have them indicted.

If the media tells lies? Make them go broke by unsubscribing or not watching.

If a company deals unethically? Force them to fire the board and executives.

But stop punishing the ruled and working class, because they haven't done anything wrong. Much like you and I they're just trying to get by the best they can.

And help those in need.  Because now the need is worst than ever and the ruling class is less likely than they ever have been to do the job they were hired to do.  It's up to us.

2020: Our Rulers have no Clothes (or Clues)

As we roll into month six of our never-ending partial lock downs it's becoming increasingly apparent that those we unfortunately elected to rule us have little clue as to what they are doing, or what they're going to do, going forward to get us out of this mess.

Unfortunately, because the entire country views things through a partisan lens and scored via zero sum, whether or not you think your ruling class is doing a good job is directly related to which party you pledge fealty to.

Granted, few people rise to the rank partisanship of Paul Krugman (who is, without a doubt, one of the worst thinker/writers in the US) there are writers across the political spectrum who are using this ongoing public health disaster as nothing more than a chance to try and amass political power and shame their political opposites into the dustbin of history.

Ironically, Democratic thinkers are ignorantly starting to parrot Karl Rove, dreaming of "permanent majorities" due to the self-immolation of the Republicans. Of course, no majority is permanent and eventually a ruling party will begin to eat itself from within. Look no further than the Republican Party in Texas, or what's going on right now with the Democrats in California.

My feeling is that Texas will not "flip" in 2020, but it's going to be close.  I'm not even sure in 2022 or 24 that will happen, but many so-called pundits will continue gaining paychecks assuring us that it will.

The real issue is going to be a potential Biden Presidency, which could prove catastrophic for long-term Democratic plans. Biden is low-functioning at this point, and that's as big of a concern as is the ego of Donald Trump.

America could use a firm hand on the tiller right now, but there are no adults in the room that seem capable of guiding this listing ship.  The rocks are getting closer, and we seem intent on sailing directly toward them waiting for them to move out of our way.

This is not a Democrat/Republican issue, it's a Ruled/Ruler one. The Ruled are getting destroyed on every level, economically, health-wise, freedom-wise, and in public safety. The Rulers are continuing to find creative ways to do nothing while trying to look like they're doing something in desperate attempts to draw your eyes away from their utter incompetence in handling both the pandemic and the issue of systemic racism.

Years from now historians are going to look back at 2020 and wonder just how it was a country with so many advantages squandered them so quickly and elected such a low-functioning, vile, group of people to rule them.

I used to think that, at some point, the populace will wake up, take a good hard look at the situation and come to the realization that we've made a complete hash of this. Instead we've got a group of rulers who cater the the Twitter mobs, who have no idea what an average citizen looks like or feels, and is more comfortable mingling at a DC cocktail party dining on lightly braised swan than they are shopping for groceries in their old neighborhood.

Finally, your elected officials are habitual liars. For all of her fawning media coverage AOC's voting record is fairly in-line with Nancy Pelosi's diktats, except in issues where a bill's fate is certain and the parties allow representatives to "bet their conscious" (shouldn't they do that on every bill?) Ted Cruz talks a good game, but he rarely votes against what the party heads say. He just talks a lot to be perfectly honest.

There's no governor that understands what they have done or what they are doing, and don't throw Cuomo in my face, his order to nursing homes requiring them to admit elderly COVID-19 patients likely killed hundreds, if not thousands, and our Mayors are even worse. (fining the poor $250 for mask non-compliance is the most Sylvester Turner of all Sylvester Turner's moves to date)

The reality is the USA is currently a rudderless ship where the crew is drunkenly scrambling around the ship looking for the Captain.  Unfortunately, the captain has already abandoned ship.

Grab the braces, set the sails, and steer your own damn ship away from the rocks.  We can find calmer waters, but we're going to have to do it ourselves, the old fashioned way, relying on our communities to band together, give the ruling class a strong middle finger and dealing with this mess ourselves.

One last note:  Carolyn Goodman got her "Las Vegas experiment" and it has not gone well 

To be fair though, very little has gone well in regards to COVID-19 primarily because the ruling class has squandered every bit of their credibility and continue to do so.

Social distance, wear a mask, practice good personal hygiene and take care of your self. What we've learned during this mess is that the ruling class will not do so. They're to busy getting fitted for invisible clothes.