Yes, I took a hiatus after the Belmont and have had a good, productive Summer season just kind of beating around the sports bushes, and not blogging much at all or anything of the sort. I just returned from a Vegas trip and I'm refreshed and ready to attack the 2019 college football season head-on.
I'm ready, and willing, to throw out predictions (again) for your amusement, and entertainment.
We begin this version of the FIVE with the usual disclaimer(s)....
1. This is NOT a listing of my REAL LIFE bets. Nor is it meant to be construed as any offer that I'm making as to the worthiness of certain bets.
2. These are predictions, they're fun, and I enjoy analyzing the games. I will be attempting to track results in real time on Capped In, but just because a game is in my FIVE doesn't mean that I actually have action on it. In many (most) cases, I will not have anything at stake in these games.
3. If you're looking to a free gambling blog authored by an accountant for your betting advice please, go GET HELP before it's too late for you.
My selections are worth EXACTLY what you paid for them.
So, without further ado.......The Week 1 FIVE
1. Utah (-5) @ BYU [-200 & +175] {O/U 60}
The big question in this game is whether or not you believe that Utah is worthy of all the hype. This is the Holy War and it can get testy, and it can be an amazing game. I think Utah is the real deal this year and a team that could find themselves in the Pac-12 Championship game. But I still think BYU keeps it close
Prediction: UTAH 27 BYU 10. [Utah to cover -5 and the UNDER]
2. Fresno State (+13.5) @ USC (-13.5) [+430 & -560] {O/U 53}
I think it's going to be very easy for sharp bettors to fade USC this year. The team is coming off a disastrous 5-7 campaign and there's probably no coach on a hotter seat than Clay Helton. But I don't think anyone expects it to start off as poorly as I think it might. USC is trying to become West Coast Texas Tech without an offensive line. Jeff Tedford's defensive front 7 at Fresno State is very, very good. USC is in trouble here, big trouble.
Prediction: Fresno State 24 USC 14. [Fresno State to WIN on the ML]
Boise State tries to make another run at being the best Group of Five team in the country only to find themselves outraged and flustered by the system when they get overlooked and ignored by the CFP committee come selection time. While Willie Taggart is catching a LOT of heat for the Seminole's woes I don't think there's ever been a full understanding surrounding just how dysfunctional of a mess Jimbo Fischer left behind.
3. Florida International (+3) @Tulane (-3) [+130 & -150] {O/U 58}
My analytics have FIU as the slightly better team even AFTER the HFA is taken into consideration. Because of this I'm backing a rare C-USA team over an AAC side this game. Normally I'd have stuck with Boise State and Florida State but I just can't keep that one up after all of the changes to the game. This game was the first one out, now it's the last one in.
Prediction: FIU 27 Tulane 24 [FIU to WIN on the ML]
4. Oregon (+3.5) @ Auburn (-3.5) [+140 & -160] {O/U 56}
I always get nervous when thinking about pulling the trigger on a PAC-12 team beating almost any other power conference team, especially a good one like Auburn. But I just think Duck head coach Mario Cristobal is putting together something really good in Eugene and this year could be the one that it all comes together.
Prediction: Oregon 24 Auburn 21 [Oregon to WIN on the ML]
5. Louisiana Tech (+20.5) @ Texas (-20.5) [+800 & -1450] {O/U 55}
This line opened at -18 and has been flying toward UT-Austin ever since then. As a matter of fact, WERE I going to bet this I'd probably wait until it went to 21 or (even better) 21.5. I think it will get there. Either way I'll update the lines prior to game time on this game because I think the number is that important. Do I think La Tech has a real chance to upset the Longhorns? No, but I do think their defense (especially the DBs) keep it closer than everyone seems to think.
Prediction: La Tech 24 UT-Austin: 30 [La Tech to Cover +20.5)
I realize that I've picked a ton of dogs, but that's what the FIVE is really for, massive upsets for the most part and a few favorites that I think are undervalued. Here are some other games I've considered and the one game where I have a rooting interest.
Alternate 1: UCLA +3 @ Cincinnati -3 [+135 & -155] {O/U 60} - We'll see what UCLA is bringing to the table this year. I think Chip Kelley's team is going to be much better than everyone thinks. I wouldn't be surprised to see them pull the (mild) upset here.
Alternate 2: Houston +20.5 @ OU -20.5 [+1100 & -2800] {O/U 82.5} - The first game of the Dana Holgerson era is a rough one. I think Houston has the athletes to keep is closer than 3 touchdowns, but I'm not willing to put actual money on it.
And, finally.....
Middle Tennessee State University +33.5 @ Michigan -33.5 [+2200 & -12050] {O/U 53.5} - I think you have to be drinking a little Michigan kool-aid to find this number in this game, but I've been accused (rightfully) of enjoying a big ol' glass of Big Blue kool-aid in the past and this year is probably no better. GO BLUE!!!
Good luck however you play and enjoy watching the first full week of college football!!!
