As we Prepare to Boot 2020 Into the Dustbin of History....It's Prediction Time.

 There is no other way to say this....2020 has been awful. 

From a global pandemic that was utterly mishandled by world governments to a United States response that was ham-fisted, inept in many areas and downright fraudulent in some, it's been a year of missed opportunities, dumb governance and, for too many, lost income and loved ones.

Normally, when I do these "prediction" posts, I try to keep it light and come up with ridiculous items that JUST border on the verge of being possible.  But this year I'm not feeling all that humorous, so I'm going to make some serious predictions at five different levels (National, Texas, Nevada, Houston, Las Vegas). Unlike previous years, these are things that I actually believe are going to happen within the Nation, the City and State where I currently reside, and the City and State that I like to visit frequently,

Since we're all anxious to put 2020 behind us, let's dive right in.

National Predictions:

1. Before the end of 2021, the movement to replace Biden as President will be well underway.

Like Biden or not, there is no doubt that the man is suffering from senility at this point in his life. It's been sad really to watch him get lost, confused, and be unable to answer even the simplest questions without visual (or audio) aids.

2. Regardless of who controls the Senate, the Democrats will be unable to deliver on many of the grand plans they have promised.

For one, they had control of Congress and the White House during Obama's first term, and what they provided the country was the fetid mess that is ObamaCare. Two, and the country are going to discover very quickly that all of the grand plans will not be accomplished through their "soak the rich" tax plans. There's just not enough money in the kitty to fund all that they are proposing.

3. The National response to COVID-19 under a Biden regime will be just as inept as it has been under the Trump Regime.

Grand pronouncements to the contrary, they're not going to be able to pull this off because they are going to rely on the government bureaucracy to pull it off and, as we've seen, that is a recipe for full-on disaster.

Predictions for the State of Nevada.

1. The budget situation is going to be dire. Sisolak will have no clue how to fix it.

The fact that Governor Gene Sisolak is not an effective executive is going to come into full relief, more than it already has, in 2021. He's incapable of suggesting the taxation of sacred cows (i.e. the mining industry), he's a man of no executive creativity and the people are going to see this as budgets get cut and the State sinks further into a fiscal abyss.

2. Nevada WILL get a lottery.

While I'm not entirely sure of the exact mechanizations in Nevada State Law for this (for example, does it require voter approval or no? Not sure) but I do predict that one of the first things attempted to try and bring in new revenue will be attempts to establish both multi-state progressive lotteries and those dreaded scratch-off cards.  Sub-prediction: The revenues gained "for the children" will be far less than projections.

Predictions for the City of Las Vegas:

1. It's going to be a ROUGH 2021

I don't see conventions coming back prior to 2022, and even then, some of these bigger events are in the processing of finding new homes, and cities willing to roll out the red carpet for them. Given the increasing costs of visiting the Strip companies, who are also employing people suffering from tough times, are going to start to look for other options.

2. One big casino operator is going to abandon Las Vegas.

The obvious answer is Sands, who is already exploring it, but I'd keep my eye on the new Caesars. As the Las Vegas Strip continues to remake itself into an overpriced bordello there's going to be less and less value there. The old saying was "gamblers still gonna gamble" but the Strip's problem is that they've abandoned the gambler.

Predictions for Texas:

1. The population bleed from the big cities will continue.

As the progressive, anti-business, ideologies continue to permeate the ruling classes of city governance people are going to continue to choose to move out and drive back in rather than living in an increasingly high-crime environment that boasts higher tax rates and fewer services.

2. No, Virginia, Texas is NOT going to approve sports betting in any form in 2021.

Texas will not expand gambling until the time that the State turns blue. No matter how much sense this one thing makes (casino gambling is a different matter altogether) it will not happen.

3. The newest "Blue Star" for the media is going to be Lina Hidalgo.

Harris County's grad-student County Judge is already receiving glowing profiles from the Texas Lock-Step Political Media, and even some National Media, despite the fact that she's not even really running the County (Rodney Ellis is running the county). She's going to get a hard push to challenge Abbott for Governor, or possibly Dan Patrick for Lt. Governor.

Predictions for Houston:

1. There will be a major flood in 2021.

The City will be 100% unprepared to deal with it.  For all of the talk, post Harvey, about "something, must be done!" The fact is little actually HAS been done. A lot of this is due to Judge Lina Hidalgo deciding to put everything back in the sausage making machine in the name of "social justice" (which is odd, because flood water knows nothing about this).

2. Houston will miss-out on the "tech boom" that's coming to Texas.

Yes, they welcomed HP, but that was outside of the city limits. Austin will receive most of the windfall from this, and Houston will be left behind with the city leadership wondering what the heck happened.

OK, that's where I'm going to leave it for now. I'm hoping that 2021 is the year where we all get the vaccine, it works, and we can get back to something resembling normal and place politics and government back in the background where they belong.

Happy New Year and good luck to all of you.

In the Matter of Gil Alexander v. The Westgate SuperBook (Buyer Beware)

This is, on the surface, now a blog concerned about gambling and sports betting. Because of this I invoke Blogger rule 3.2.1 Subsection 32 and am going to type some words about the subject above.

If you've not been following along, here's a brief summary:

Back in March(?) Mr. Alexander made some futures wagers on Iga Swiatek to win the French Open at odds in the range of 30-1. These bets apparently varied in size, but some were around the $1000 level which would have paid Mr. Alexander $30K.

Fast forward to today, and Mr. Alexander went to various books to cash his winning tickets. According to Mr. Alexander, all of the books paid him his winnings except one: The Westgate Superbook. According to the Superbook they had cancelled all wagers in that pool and later put up a substitute pool due to the French Open occurring later in the year. Mr. Alexander was refunded his $1,000 and then all Heck broke loose on VSiN.

The brewhaha broke out yesterday morning when Mr. Alexander, on his VSiN morning show, went on around an hour long stem-winder against the Superbook, what he termed their "vague" rules, and the practice of sports books in general not being transparent when bets are cancelled.

This has, as you can imagine, created quite the tempest in the teapot that is sports wagering.

Ignoring the back-and-forth that's going on at VSiN right now (which is a blog post in and of itself, but is also something I consider to be an internal, company matter) what's emerged from all of this are two camps.

First: The 'Your ticket, Your responsibility' camp. - These people feel that Mr. Alexander is 100% in the wrong and that he should have understood the rules when making a bet. In many (not all) cases they know the staff at Westgate and frequent the place.  According to their tweets and statements they feel that the Book has zero obligation to notify gamblers of changes, and that the onus lies on the bettor to monitor their own bets.

Second: The "Books are bad" camp. - This group is against the book, has in many cases promised to never play at the Superbook again (I don't believe that but OK) and feels that the books should do anything that they can to ensure bettors know about the status of their bets.

I would like to propose a 3rd camp, my camp.

"I'm responsible for my own shit but the place that I do business can retain my loyalty by practicing good customer service."

In his interview this morning on the VSiN show "Follow the Money" SuperBook Godfather Jay Kornegay felt that the Book did "as much as they could" to notify bettors of changes to their French Open futures by: A. Having a staffer tweet it out on their personal Twitter account and B.) Talking about it on Follow the Money on VSiN.  While I will agree this is certainly "something" I do think the book COULD have gone further.

No, I do not think that the Superbook should have "taken a full page ad out in newspapers: (which, besides being a bogus argument also shows just how far behind the times Nevada sports books really are) but I do think they could have done four simple (cheap) things to advertise that a major change had taken place.

1. Put a notice up on their board that French Open wagers have been cancelled.  Do one of those *ASTERISKS SURROUNDING A STATMENT IN ALL CAPS* messages, prominently displayed.

2. Put up some signage in the Book stating that all French Open Futures have been cancelled and that a new pool was forthcoming.

3. Put a Pop-up Message on their APP that all French Open Futures have been cancelled and that a new pools was forthcoming.

4. Send an e-mail blast to ALL customers stating that French Open futures were cancelled and that a new pools was forthcoming.

Notice, no where in these, am I asking the book to track the wagers and individually notify the player (which many have suggested), I don't think the onus is on them to that degree. In today's age, with technology being what it is, and given that most bettors place their bets with a Player's Card, and said cards have an e-mail attached to them, it should not be difficult for that to happen. If you don't think that the casinos understand who is betting with them and do not use those card's already for bet tracking purposes you, like NV sportsbooks, are behind the times.

My point is that NV sportsbooks especially have a LONG WAY to go to provide even moderate customer service to bettors. The idea that "buyer beware" and that every bettor has the sole onus of calling into a book to check the status of current wagers is as insipid as saying that the book has the obligation to notify each and every bettor of a change. Neither is true.

As with everything, this will ultimately be adjudicated by the NV Gaming Commission. To be honest, I figure they will rule with the SuperBook because the Commission is not a player's advocate and has traditionally sided with the House.

On another note, one would think that Sportsbooks would be more communicative to it's customers during a pandemic that has thrown everything out of whack and has made improved communication more important than ever. Vegas Sports Betting industry constantly likes to come onto various media outlets and pound their chests that they are "The Industry Gold Standard"

It's past time they started acting like it.

And, if you're a bettor, that's your investment, please take some time to understand at least the basics about it.

Court finds for no one, everyone was wrong and the industry is still a mess.  Case Closed.

Catching up on the Football (College and Pro) that I missed.

 Oops.

I had MEANT to do 5 posts on college and professional football a couple of weeks back but real life got in the way.  The road to Hell and good intentions and all of that.

But, so far, we have a reasonable version of football. Yes, there are some college games being postponed, to Dan Wolken's great delight, and their are no/limited fans in attendance, but we've got actual real, live football being played and that's wonderful.

This weekend, the vaunted S! E! C! comes back, with their big budgets and bigger disassociation with reality, so the National media will start paying some interest (Hi! CBS) although ESPN has been going through the motions with Game Day, and their coverage.

Saturday will be the first morning that I will get up and watch Game Day. So far, I've just been tuning in at the end for their picks. (Lee Corso is still the GOAT at pre-game shows FWIW) But what we're gaining in terms of volume is not exactly being matched by compelling games at the College level.

That said, there are a few lines that I grabbed (some early) so I think there is opportunity to be found as books still are getting a handle on how to place odds this season (early example: Houston v. N. Texas opened at 53. FIFTY THREE for two offensive minded teams. I hope you jumped on that)

I'm still high on South Alabama (+7.5 this week vs. UAB) and I cannot figure out how they got 77.5 as a total for UCF v. ECU. It's possible ECU doesn't score a point in this game. There are some juicy numbers (Iowa State -2.5) that you can still grab and some odd dogs (N. Texas at +22 to UH?? That seems large) and there are some prohibitive favorites that should not have any problem winning whatsoever. (A long list that I will not get into here)

On the NFL side things are a mess. I cannot remember a year with more star players going out for extended periods of time in week two due to torn ACLs.  And, contrary to everyone's belief, ligament tears are not a result of no training camp etc. The rash of hamstrings was certainly due to lack of conditioning, but high ankle sprains, ligament tears etc. are the results of bad hits, and there were a ton of them.

The team taking the worst of it was, unfortunately, my Niners. Not only is Garrapolo out for several weeks apparently, but they also lost Mostart (top RB) and Bosa (top DE). That's a brutal MASH list right there, and probably puts the playoffs in jeopardy considering that the Seahawks and Rams both look outstanding this year.

Not surprised: Cam looks good with the Patriots, the Ravens look like world beaters, Pittsburgh is going to be good again, the Jets are awful, Jacksonville is this year's Miami.

Surprised: The Vikings are....not good, The Texans are a train-wreck, the Titans and Colts will vie for that division. Trubisky is playing OK ball this year and what in the heck is up with the Lions? Green Bay looks much better than we all thought.

Football is back to playing on Thursday with one College and one NFL game. At least the College game is interesting. NFL Thursday games are an abomination that needs to be put out of their misery, despite the fact that last Thursday's game was entertaining at least.

As far as betting goes, I'm taking South Alabama at +7.5 but I'm having none to do with Miami v. Jacksonville. I'm not sure there are two teams that I trust least at any level of football than those two.

Good luck however you play.

The 2020 Football Season (On this blog)

Well, we are here. The 2020 College football season began last weekend, and continues tonight, while the NFL is one week away from playing what is (hopefully) a full season with no or few fans.

But, it's football, and the United States of America LOVES itself some football. So, let's go.

Over the past few years I've been doing the College Football FIVE and the NFL 3 & Out, providing 5 sports betting picks for college football and 3 picks for the NFL (of varying success. If you faded, you're not doing bad).  I'm taking a pause from that this year because of COVID-19 and there just being too many unknowns. I should be posting about the weekend's games, and might provide some insight, but I'm not willing to put selections out there right now.

On other fronts, I plan to forecast the 49er's season, and because I live in Houston I'll project the Texans, but I'm not doing full Divisional projections this year and I'm not doing the college conferences. I do plan to discuss specific items in detail, and I might make some predictions on the playoffs when (if) they happen, but for now I've decided to dial it back and focus more on my actual sports betting and less on hypothetical "plays" for publication. (If you remember, I did not necessarily bet all of the FIVE, or the 3 & out, they were just games that interested me.)

The most important bit from all of this is that we're going to have football, real, actual football being played for our enjoyment. We can only hope that it's better than the NBA has been and closer to the brilliance that the NHL has been.

If the NFL and College football are anything close to the NHL bubble product, we're going to be in for a show.

For next week, leading up to the first game on Thursday, my planned posting schedule looks like this:

Monday: San Francisco Forty Niners schedule prediction

Tuesday: Houston Texans schedule prediction

Wednesday: College Football overview

Thursday: NFL opening lines discussion.

Friday: NFL opener recap

Saturday: NFL week 1 preview post.

OK, with that, let's play some football.

You Cannot Block Every Horrid Person on Social Media (That doesn't mean you cannot try)

 I'm writing this Tuesday after logging off from work, looking at news stories featuring horrid fires in California and Hurricane Laura bearing down on the Texas/Louisiana State Line.

I'm also coming off a stint on Twitter, America's cess-pool, and I have some thoughts on all of this that you may, or may not (if you're one of those Twitter turds in the pool) want to read.

Firstly, it's become very easy for us to project our personal hatred on whatever Golems we have personally created as evil incarnate, onto the poor who are left with precious few life choices and no easily attainable options.

Many look at those displaced by the California fires and their first response is: "Well, they voted in these stupid liberal Democrats who refuse to clear the underbrush so....they deserve it."  

Or you may look at the people in the petrochemical industry in Lake Charles and think: "Big oil is going to super heat the Earth and kill mankind so.....they deserve it."

But, do they? Really?

I'm here to tell you that no. They do not.

Instead of your haughtiness and disdain they deserve your empathy and (most importantly) support, if you can provide it. In most cases the victims are of the innocent sort, poor, overwhelmingly minority and the exact same people that the Caucasian BLM supporters claim to be in support of while simultaneously tearing down.

Yes, the oil/gas/petrochemical industry is not an environmental saint, but they also provide meaningful, living wages for many in an area that offers few. In fact, in many areas of Southwest Louisiana the only employment options are petrochemical factories, casinos, or the service industry, none of which are valued by society's "elites", despite the fact that these same "elites" would break out in hives if they had to perform the duties of the serfs.

The are overwhelmingly poor FWIW.

"Well, they can go get green jobs" is something that you might say.

You can say this but that would be incorrect. Because, you see, even in the most pie-in-the-sky "green" plans the mentions of "good paying, green jobs" are always something that fit under the "to be created" category, something the Government promises will materialize but has no meaningful plan to produce. In short, there are no jobs. It's either the factories, casinos, hotels, restaurants or these retail shops that people are stuck with, or nothing at all.

"Well, they can MOVE" you counter.

Except they cannot.  For the most part these are very poor people, living paycheck to paycheck with few options for escape. They don't have the savings to up and move, and to ride out the time that it would take for them to obtain a new job. In many cases it's the safety nets in these states where they have no options, that keeps them where they are. It's also families and support systems that anchor them in place.

Secondly, these things that you hate, Republicans, Democrats, the ruling class, Evil Big Oil, is really anger directed at the ruling class.

The dark secret to all of this is that it's not the ruling class who is going to be feeling the pain. The Executives and politicians in areas that are burning in California are in no danger, they've traveled far away, in most cases to their 2nd or 3rd homes (Even Bernie Sanders, that great Socialist, owns 3) and while they will suffer some property damage they can either write the rules in their favor for help (politicians) or have plenty of insurance to make them whole (executives and...politicians).

The ruled, what's left of the middle class and the working poor, don't have that luxury. In many cases they lose their only residence, are forced to evacuate to a shelter, and have little ammunition to fight the insurance companies in the manner the ruling class has.

It's the same for the people in Lake Charles, who are looking at losing everything with nothing in their arsenal to combat it. Their communities are looking at the very real prospect that they are going to be destroyed, not partially, but utterly and completely blown away.

Today, on Twitter, I have blocked almost 100 people who used this tragedy to pile on, to make a political point against the opposite side. I will continue doing so. While I believe it is impossible to block them all I am going to continue to do so. Not because I don't want to hear opposing points of view, because I do, which is why I leave the comments on here, but because I do not consider their points of view to be valid. I don't believe that any point of view that cheers on human pain and suffering to be relevant or worth listening to. Do I believe they have a right to say it? Yes, but I also have a right to tune them out. You do as well.

Lastly, much of this rhetoric is force-fed to us by the media and the ruling class. They feed it to the masses to try and divide us, to keep us from realizing where the true power lies. The most 'vital' Democratic function you can do is to engage, it's not to vote (which is actually the laziest form of participation in a Democracy). A voting populace who then tunes out is an elected official's dream. It's the media's dream as well, because they NEVER HOLD THEM ACCOUNTABLE.

But an engaged electorate, who holds the elected officials to the rules and laws that they themselves lay upon the ruled, is the most powerful function in a healthy Nation, and it's the one that takes the most work.

If a politician breaks the rules? Have them indicted.

If the media tells lies? Make them go broke by unsubscribing or not watching.

If a company deals unethically? Force them to fire the board and executives.

But stop punishing the ruled and working class, because they haven't done anything wrong. Much like you and I they're just trying to get by the best they can.

And help those in need.  Because now the need is worst than ever and the ruling class is less likely than they ever have been to do the job they were hired to do.  It's up to us.

2020: Our Rulers have no Clothes (or Clues)

As we roll into month six of our never-ending partial lock downs it's becoming increasingly apparent that those we unfortunately elected to rule us have little clue as to what they are doing, or what they're going to do, going forward to get us out of this mess.

Unfortunately, because the entire country views things through a partisan lens and scored via zero sum, whether or not you think your ruling class is doing a good job is directly related to which party you pledge fealty to.

Granted, few people rise to the rank partisanship of Paul Krugman (who is, without a doubt, one of the worst thinker/writers in the US) there are writers across the political spectrum who are using this ongoing public health disaster as nothing more than a chance to try and amass political power and shame their political opposites into the dustbin of history.

Ironically, Democratic thinkers are ignorantly starting to parrot Karl Rove, dreaming of "permanent majorities" due to the self-immolation of the Republicans. Of course, no majority is permanent and eventually a ruling party will begin to eat itself from within. Look no further than the Republican Party in Texas, or what's going on right now with the Democrats in California.

My feeling is that Texas will not "flip" in 2020, but it's going to be close.  I'm not even sure in 2022 or 24 that will happen, but many so-called pundits will continue gaining paychecks assuring us that it will.

The real issue is going to be a potential Biden Presidency, which could prove catastrophic for long-term Democratic plans. Biden is low-functioning at this point, and that's as big of a concern as is the ego of Donald Trump.

America could use a firm hand on the tiller right now, but there are no adults in the room that seem capable of guiding this listing ship.  The rocks are getting closer, and we seem intent on sailing directly toward them waiting for them to move out of our way.

This is not a Democrat/Republican issue, it's a Ruled/Ruler one. The Ruled are getting destroyed on every level, economically, health-wise, freedom-wise, and in public safety. The Rulers are continuing to find creative ways to do nothing while trying to look like they're doing something in desperate attempts to draw your eyes away from their utter incompetence in handling both the pandemic and the issue of systemic racism.

Years from now historians are going to look back at 2020 and wonder just how it was a country with so many advantages squandered them so quickly and elected such a low-functioning, vile, group of people to rule them.

I used to think that, at some point, the populace will wake up, take a good hard look at the situation and come to the realization that we've made a complete hash of this. Instead we've got a group of rulers who cater the the Twitter mobs, who have no idea what an average citizen looks like or feels, and is more comfortable mingling at a DC cocktail party dining on lightly braised swan than they are shopping for groceries in their old neighborhood.

Finally, your elected officials are habitual liars. For all of her fawning media coverage AOC's voting record is fairly in-line with Nancy Pelosi's diktats, except in issues where a bill's fate is certain and the parties allow representatives to "bet their conscious" (shouldn't they do that on every bill?) Ted Cruz talks a good game, but he rarely votes against what the party heads say. He just talks a lot to be perfectly honest.

There's no governor that understands what they have done or what they are doing, and don't throw Cuomo in my face, his order to nursing homes requiring them to admit elderly COVID-19 patients likely killed hundreds, if not thousands, and our Mayors are even worse. (fining the poor $250 for mask non-compliance is the most Sylvester Turner of all Sylvester Turner's moves to date)

The reality is the USA is currently a rudderless ship where the crew is drunkenly scrambling around the ship looking for the Captain.  Unfortunately, the captain has already abandoned ship.

Grab the braces, set the sails, and steer your own damn ship away from the rocks.  We can find calmer waters, but we're going to have to do it ourselves, the old fashioned way, relying on our communities to band together, give the ruling class a strong middle finger and dealing with this mess ourselves.

One last note:  Carolyn Goodman got her "Las Vegas experiment" and it has not gone well 

To be fair though, very little has gone well in regards to COVID-19 primarily because the ruling class has squandered every bit of their credibility and continue to do so.

Social distance, wear a mask, practice good personal hygiene and take care of your self. What we've learned during this mess is that the ruling class will not do so. They're to busy getting fitted for invisible clothes.

Winners (and losers) and the destruction of wealth 'in these times'

As we roll into the dog days of Summer there's still much concern about COVID-19 (rightly so) but we're starting to see our ruling class increasingly pivot to crocodile tears for the majority of folks that are going to be casting votes come November.

In-between made-for-TV accusations against one's political enemies of incompetence, corruption, stupidity and down-right evil is a sudden, manufactured concern for those who have lost their jobs due to forced closures, fear-mongering and general ham-handedness by the very same rulers.  Suddenly people being out of work, broke, and holding no hopes for the future is less a reality brought on by shuttering the economy, and more the result of......something the other tribe has done because they don't care sufficiently about the poor and suffering.

It's never about policy, it's about "feels".

The battle lines here have always been simple: It's the ruling class against the middle-class, and the rulers have all of the power over the ruled and there's little the latter can actually do about it.

Oh sure, you're told you can vote, but what is the difference between voting for a Corporatist party and voting for a Socialist party?  Both want to remove the largest amount of money from you that they can, to distribute to their political patrons, the only difference is where they want the money to go.

There will always be winners and losers, even in a so-called "fair and just" Socialist system. The ruling class in Soviet Russia had dachas while the ruled waited in long-lines for bread. At least straight-out strong men were honest about what they were doing. The only difference between a Bolivarian "revolutionist" and an African strong-man was one of marketing.

As such, the only difference between a Republican and a Democrat is one of messaging. Republicans have not, in recent times, done a very good job of conveying their message. Democrats have done a very good job convincing the ruled that removing their money and freedom from their control is in their best interests. The ruled have lapped up their message because of the unending drum-beat of government competence, this despite the fact that we see constant reminders of just how incompetent our government truly is.

Yet, time after time, we see the government cause a problem and we're told, in the media and by the ruling class, that the solution to the problem is MORE government.  Look as schools for example, America's education system is a cesspool of poor administration and corrupt unions. It has as little to do with education children as "climate-justice" has to do with stopping climate change. Yet we're told over and over that the "solution" to the problem is more money, more putting children into failing schools, and more funding.  Funding, by the way, that will not, in most cases, go to the actual education of children, but into the coffers of political connected organizations whose goal is increasing the bottom line.

As COVID-19 continues to work its way through the population, and a communicable virus continues to do what a communicable virus is going to do, we're now being force-fed a happy myth of bailouts and stimulus checks and the horrific lie of universal basic income, the idea that the government should provide everyone with just enough money to scrape by, the central premise of this being that the only thing worse than being poor is having the temerity to believe that one can make a living income without the benevolence of the ruling class.

How to pay for all of this?  The scourge of the moment is the "ultra-rich". They seemingly have an endless bag of money that could be distributed to the masses if only the government had the will to tax them until their eyes bleed.  Just don't pay attention and realize that the entire combined wealth of the hated ultra-rich couldn't fund Medicaid for a year, much less in perpetuity. 

What we're left with is an angry populace that's wondering when they're going to get theirs, when the rich are going to be placed in the public square and be forced to answer for their crimes of success while being pelted by organically sourced, non GMO tomatoes.

Ah well, at least we still have our freedoms......oh...wait.

The on-going scourge of Social Media

The wife and I made an escape last weekend. After three months of work from home, of only making one trip per week. to the grocery store, wearing my mask. we decided that we needed to get out of the house, more specifically, I needed to get out of the house.

So we decided to pack our bags, our masks and around 2 gallons of hand sanitizer to make the trip to our "local" casino in Lake Charles.  We spent a fun weekend gambling, losing, eating good food, drinking good wine and cocktails, sitting in a pool cabana on Sunday, and generally just having a grand time.

Yes, we wore our masks, we had sani-wipes and used them to disinfect every machine that we sat down to, and we wore our masks for the most part, except if we were sitting at the bar drinking and playing video poker, at which point it seemed a little silly to keep them on when we'd have to touch them repeatedly to pull them down and keep drinking.

Was there a risk of contracting COVID-19?  Yes, probably so. But at some point we have to return to living life in the safest way possible, but we do need to get back into the swing of things and start being productive again. Virus gonna virus, we just have to adapt to our new realities.

We need human interaction, we are social animals after all.

What I did notice is that, after 3 months of lock down, my human interaction compass was mightily skewed by the cesspool that is social media.  If you believe Twitter, every conversation surrounding race etc. is fraught with anger, name-calling, one-upmanship and online "owns".  Drop the mic moments seem to be the goal, and there's no room for nuance. no room for those little moments in Houston interaction that allow for understanding.  Twitter. especially is a cold, brutal place full of awful people whose only reason for existing is to injure others. Not physically, they don't have the guts to do that, but there are different ways to ruin people's lives. You know about "SWATting" and you've certainly heard of "cancel culture" by now, these are just some of the ways bad actors on Twitter go about stifling debate.

Twitter is where the "Karen" meme revealed itself, and it's where the worst of humanity is placed on a pedestal to be mocked, knocked down and humiliated, where mob-rule is the rule and the powers that be seem little inclined to police their huge bot problem.  The government's "solution" to this is to cudgel them into submission, or extinction, by removing their "platform" privileges and making them responsible for what's posted by their users.

Like any government response, this is not going to work, it's only going to push cancel culture underground where, in my opinion, it becomes more dangerous.

The good news is that regular, decent society still does not operate like social media society but the gap is getting smaller., mainstream media reporters, too lazy to work their beat, scour social media for unvetted memes and broadcast them nationally, without question, and without applying journalistic principles such as verification and corroboration. This is leading to social media creep into polite society and, unless we do something to stop this, we're going to live in a society where mob mentality rules, and rule of law goes the way of the Dodo.

It's a big problem.  We're still, just, in a place where decent humans can have a polite conversation on difficult issues without resorting to cancel culture and mob anger.

Humanity needs to keep that, or we're going to regret that it's gone.

2020: Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of Happiness.

Firstly, and this might come as a shock to you, I'm an upper middle-class Caucasian male.  As such I'm not going to use this format to lecture you on how you should feel about the Black Lives Matter protests that are currently ongoing.  I'm not going to tell you how to feel about it, I'm not going to lecture you on what you're doing wrong in thinking about it.

I'm just going to say that I have no idea what minority, especially Black, Americans are going through but I understand they are angry and empathize with their feelings that nothing has been being done about it for quite some time, decades even.

I will also say that THIS is why we have the 1st Amendment, to allow the people to gather and protest the government and ask for redress from grievances. 

So, some good can come from this. We can have some change, the demilitarization of our police force for one, a re-look at some of the policies that allow police to use smaller charges as smoke-screens for blind-searches for bigger crimes, for an end to no-knock raids and for meaningful change withing the criminal justice system.  Ending qualified immunity for the police would also help (and might do the MOST to help FWIW).

Harder to end is going to be the Blue Line. The idea that police protect their own, that some will look the other way when a crime by other officers happen, that's a bigger issue that's not going to be resolved by a politician giving a speech, or passing a law.

Hard truth: You're never going to 100% eradicate racism. In a perfect world yes, it would be possible but this is not a perfect world and we are not perfect animals. You cannot police minds, even minds holding beliefs as fundamentally wrong as this, thinking that a person's worth is contingent on what color of skin they were born with. There will always be lesser animals among us. How we deal with this is going to say just as much about us as it does about them.

My hope is that something meaningful, fair and just comes out of this. My fear is that the solution is going to be built out of anger and opportunity instead of justice and fairness. America has a pretty sad track record in the Western Hemisphere of tearing down old regimes and putting in place something sensible that works.

Our biggest problem is our reliance on both the Republican and Democratic Parties to run our political system. We've co-opted our democracy not to corporations, but to two groups of influence-peddlers who's primary goals are score-keeping and dividing up the Country in the false hope of gaining a "Permanent Majority".  Because of this we forget the greatest truism in America:  "It's US (the People) versus THEM (The Government) when it comes to protecting our rights.

I can hear people now: "But the Government is there to protect our rights."

This is not true, our rights are there to protect us from the government, full stop. The Government can only protect our rights IF our rights come from the government.  And if they did, what the government provided they can take away.

Granted, there are times when flawed government policy strips people of their rights, which is why we have the Justice System, and why (despite what people say) the War Between the States was fought so long ago*.

At the end of the day however, it's the provision of the people to stand up to the government and demand their rights be recognized, which is what you're seeing today in these protests that are spreading across the globe. Man does not grant rights, they are natural, given by whatever higher power you believe in. They cannot be stripped away by government unless the people are compliant and give their permission to have them taken away.  This is true, obviously, in cases where force is not invoked to remove rights. That's a post for another time**.

Again, my purpose here is not to lecture you on how to feel about that. I have my feelings, you have yours, and those people out there marching have theirs.  And they're doing a very effective job getting their message across.

Do I have worries?  Of course I do.  I'm concerned about the rumblings of military deployment to try and quell the violence. The military is not a scalpel it is a broad sword. I am concerned that our tendency to turn things from discussions and dialogue into a lecture is going to result in backlash. This issue needs meaningful discussion, not a dressing-down of anyone who looks or thinks differently.

This feels like a key moment in history. It feels as if we have a perfect storm of circumstances, COVID-19 lock-downs and the resulting economic collapse, have freed people from the trappings of work and are allowing this to continue longer than it normally would. That means that this will go on longer than the normal news cycle and, with an election upcoming, some legislation might be passed by a Congress with an eye on re-election.  That legislation is almost certain to be partisan and rife with unintended consequences but I think something gets done.

Which leads me to my last point:  The solution to this issue is not simply electing more Republican or Democratic politicians, depending on your political point of view.  Many of the atrocities that have happened have taken place in cities under Democratic rule. Many of the legislative drivers of these problems have sprung from Conservative State Houses and Washington D.C. 

Anyone telling you that the solution to this problem is to "Vote Blue" or "MAGA" is simply regurgitating the advertising campaign of two of the biggest money collecting agencies in the US today. 

The answer to all of this is to elect politicians who espouse workable policy goals with which you agree. Then, and this is the tricky bit, to hold them accountable by un-electing them if they don't produce.

If they are successful and advance policies you like? Then by all means vote them back for a 2nd term. But if they don't?  It's up to the citizenry to vote them out, even IF that means casting a vote for the other "side". This is where, as a society, we have failed. It's also why we're still looking at Nancy Pelosi and Mitch McConnel's ugly mugs on TV cameras still.

That is what we need to change, and it's also why we continue to fail because we have not, as a society, shown a propensity to wish to do that.  Until we do meaningful change is never going to happen, no matter how many protests we decide to hold.

*Despite what we hear the "Civil War" WAS fought to eradicate slavery. The "State's Rights" that were being contested was directly related to that.  And yes, I do think that having Confederate monuments in the US is odd. It's one of the odd instances in history where the losers got to tell their tale.

**Slavery was a taking of rights by force. Anyone who says otherwise is being ridiculous. True 'fascism' (not the politically convenient meaning we use today) is the deprivation of rights by force, as is communism, and "seizing the means of production" FWIW but people do not want to recognize that depending on their political leanings.

COVID: The Slow, Gradual re-opening of our souls

Over the weekend we started to see some very public signs that the world was coming out of its State-mandated slumber.

In Germany, soccer was played, albeit without fans, but real, live soccer was played. Here in the State's there was some golf. Granted, not the PGA style golf that we're used to, but players lugging around their own bags, being miked up, and only one guy touching the flags, while another one carried around a rake, was at least something. NASCAR held a race, again without fans, and for the first time in six weeks we had to be nervous for the driver when watching a wreck.

Some, not all, States are allowing some businesses to open. Here in Texas restaurants can once again welcome some customers inside to dine, nail salons and barbers can paint nails and cut hair again. Little signs of normalcy. (Side note: get that hair cut folks, some of you are looking a little rough)

Since this was, and might be again, a gambling blog, it's important here to discuss casinos beginning to slowly reopen. Louisiana, my 'local' allowed casinos to open today, and they have, at 25% occupancy and with strict protocols in place. I am not going to be one to rush out of visit.  As it stands now I'm planning in the 2nd half of June for my first foray. I'm looking forward to it. A nice long video poker session coupled with a Tito's and soda (or three, or four) is just what this writer needs.

The point is that people need interaction, we're social creatures after all, for the most part anyway. As this went on and on and drug out there was evidence that people were finding creative ways to get out and do things. This seemed to be working out pretty well in most places but, in a few States (California & New York for example) we saw that the worst crime in the world was defying the rulers. Governors who emptied the prisons of criminals were fining and locking up people who had the temerity to question authority. 

Maybe it's not a coincidence that the States suffering from the worst outbreaks, also have some of the worst elected officials, who were wrongly given glowing coverage by the media before the true stories started coming out?

The long and short of this is that no reopening plan, even the most thoughtfully crafted ones, will be successful without you.

I don't mean in terms of getting out. That decisions is up to you and entirely dependent on your circumstances. What I mean is that IF you decide to go out, the success of this plan is going to depend on you practicing social distancing, wearing PPE effectively, and continuing to practice good hygiene.

Until we get an effective vaccine this is going to be the new reality for all of us and I don't think that's going to change soon.  We're going to have to adjust and get the economy moving, and get people's jobs back so that they can care for their families.

Doing this the correct way should determine whether or not we have to shelter in place again.  I say SHOULD because I'm not sure that it WILL based on what we're seeing from our rulers today.

COVID: How to navigate the partisan waters.

Trump is either the worst President in the history of the United States of America, OR he's the best we've ever seen. There can be no middle ground.

You must either shelter-in-place in your home, ordering delivery and staying 20 feet away from every other human lest you die, OR you march on State Capitols in protest, bearing guns and try your best to not be associated with the grimy creep hoisting Nazi symbolism. There can be no middle ground.

Either we're all going to die, OR we're doing an unprecedented job. There can be no middle ground.

You've seen the stories, you've watched the news, you see the breathless missives on social media and, if you're like me you think: "What a load of crap!"

I've had discussions with people who, with a straight face and without a hint of irony, suggested that people can go outside provided they be willing to forego healthcare services. For the good of society. I've also had people suggest I want people to die because I'm starting to side against the lock down model of Coronavirus prevention, leaning more toward opening up with social distancing while working hard to isolate the more vulnerable among us.

The problem, today, is that this is now considered to be "radical" by some. With the media constantly feeding us a steady diet of panic, turning otherwise harmless interactions into psuedo-racist assaults, with the health experts lumping in ANY COVID-19 symptom into the Novel Coronavirus buckets, and with government generally doing a terrible job providing meaningful virus data, it's getting real hard to try and remain a calm, measured realist in an increasingly freaked out world.  What am I on about?  Think about this. When you see a statistic that says "[insert your State here] has had a grim day with the highest count of New COVID-19 cases EVER!!!!" it really means nothing absent more information about the number of tests performed.

More tests, means more cases, not necessarily that the pandemic is getting worse. Nor is it clear, yet, that this soft-reopening is leading to a so-called "second wave" as breathless young J-school grads are implying.  In fact, in a cruel twist of irony, medical providers are LOSING money, and in some cases filing for bankruptcy during a PANDEMIC.  That's just insane when you think about it.

Are some of the protests occurring the master-plan of "far right activists"?  At some level that is possible, but the more likely scenario is that people without work, and without means of feeding their kids, are getting sick and tired of having parks closed, not being able to get their hair cut, and not being able to provide.

On the other side the conspiracy theory du jour is that those mean, evil Democrats are intentionally killing the economy to damage The Bronzed Ego which would put Captain Creepy Confusion into the White House.  Possible?  Yes, but if you've been around any politicians for any period of time you'd soon realize that they couldn't conspire to open a can of beans, much less pull off something this complex.

The more likely scenarios are this:  We have allowed ourselves to be ruled by low-functioning idiots. They type of people who, as in the Biblical tale, are more likely to bury their wealth in the Earth rather than invest it. They are a risk-averse lot who's worst fear is not "having people die" but instead being "blamed for having people die" on their watch.  It's bad for being re-elected you see.  Yes, there is an element of Torquemada in some of these mini-despots, they crave the power, need the power to assuage their egos. But, and this is important, for the most part their Poly-Sci degrees don't give them the intellectual bandwidth to have a full concept of what they are really doing. So, they're playing it safe.

As for the protesters?  Most of these people just want to get back to work. Most people on the beaches are practicing social distancing, but are being made to look like their not through dishonest camera angles. Most adults with an even half-functioning brain understand, and will comply, with social distancing and will wear PPE if the local Pinochet's will just stop with the overreach and the rule by angry diktat.

If there has been any bad actor in this crisis it's the media. America's so called "5th Estate" has long abdicated their role of being America's watchdog, and has devolved into America's fear-monger. That's a problem, and I don't think there's an easy fix because the Emperor is completely unaware that he is sans clothes.

The United States are facing a mess of issues right now, and partisanship, plain laziness, institutional incompetence and downright dishonesty, have made it damn near impossible to get any semblance of the straight story.

And this is where it falls on you.  Because, in these United States since, oh the 1970's, we've fallen down on our responsibilities as citizens. We have handed over the administration and resolution of all things to an increasingly all-powerful government, asking them to deal with issues that they were never constructed to handle. We look at media stories uncritically, demanding that J-school grads with no real-world experience on the items on which they are reporting convey truths with 100% accuracy. We expect companies to be our gate-keepers for bad things.

Every step of modern life now is about having someone else do things for us, for relying on others to be the holders of our common sense. Then, when things go pear shaped, we look at those to whom we've outsourced our security for recompense.

The only way to resolve this is if enough people start taking control of their own lives, to stop screaming at our institutions every time something goes wrong, to force ourselves to spend time doing the important things rather than creating Tik-Tok videos.

Will it be hard?  Yes.  Does this mean that we're totally on our own?

Of course not.  because government does have a role and serve a purpose, corporations do have a role and they serve a purpose. The media has a crucial role and serve a vital purpose to the proper functioning of the Republic.

And we have a purpose as well. A critical one, a vital one. One that we've refused to perform for quite some time now.

Let's use this pandemic to change that.

COVID Lockdown: What if? The Experts got it wrong.

Did we need to lock down the economy?

Increasingly, it appears that the answer is 'no'.

This is a big problem because IF the economy was locked down based almost entirely on faulty data from the Imperial College Model, and IF the model was as wonky as many are now suggesting, and IF when the underlying models were finally released to the public they were altered from their original form then it's possible that some level of fraud took place. Not likely mind you, but possible.

Even more discouraging is that the politicians, some medical professionals, and media are still using the numbers from this faulty model to drive current and future policy.

The problem is that we're told to "believe in the science".  But what happens when the science is just flat-out wrong?

That's a problem.  "Science" as it's now known, is highly model driven. In many cases the models take over actual empirical data as the gold standard of proof. That's what's happened here and it's what's happening in many cases in current times.

This used to be limited to the social sciences, unfortunately now it's creeping into actual science, with actual real-world consequences. It's led to the rise of political demogogues allowed to spew forth platitudes backed by J-school grads who have only a passing understanding of the actual scientific model.

The worry is that this leads to inane comments such as "the science is settled", which, as we know, is a lie. Science is never "settled", it's never finalized, it's always evolving and changing as new data points are collected and analyzed*.

We truly live in crazy times where too much gravity is given to people who really should not have it. Politicians are not, contrary to their beliefs, experts in infectious diseases. Media members are not experts in public policy. (If you don't believe me on this try this experiment: Find an article written on something you know a lot about. See how many errors it contains. Then ask yourself why you believe, without question, their writing on other subjects).  Front line medical workers, as honorably as they've toiled during this mess, are not experts on national health policy, response, etc.

Just like me, as an accountant, am not an expert on government budgets.  I may have opinions on them, and that's fine, but it doesn't mean that I've got some great insight into the process.

In the best of times there is a ton of noise in the system that you have to try and drown out. This is especially true in the age of social media where no one uses their real name and anyone can type pretty much anything.

We have to start doing better at determining the real from the jabber, and it's going to take all of us working together and actually applying ourselves rather than waiting for a media that's long abdicated that job to do it for us.

Fun times.













*Note: The above is NOT an argument against climate change, which I believe is real. Instead it is a jab against how our politicians and the media report on it. As if what's come before is infallible despite us now knowing it is not (Mann's hockey stick for example, or Gore's 'movie' that contained at least 10 items that were patently incorrect)

Fear and Loathing in the Time of COVID-19: Keep your Head Up.

Times have become a bit shit. I understand that.

From silly cries of "we're all in this together" coming from celebs who are Tik-toking in their posh mansions to politicians who have no experience with losing a job, or taking a pay cut, telling us that we all need to "share sacrifice" together, not meaning them obviously, they mean you.

In times like these I suggest you tune out that noise, tune out the hysterical media, the partisans, the so-called "experts' who put us into lock down based on what we now know to be shoddy evidence and focus instead on your friends, your neighbors, your loved ones.

Eventually, either the governments are going to relent and re-open, hopefully with a focus on social distancing, protecting the vulnerable and encouraging PPE use, which is what we should have done in the first place.  And when they do this it's going to be vital that people actually get out and do this.

I don't mean that you need to book that flight to Rome right now, or immediately head to Las Vegas or Santa Barbara, but what we do need to do is start living life again. Go to your favorite restaurant and grab dinner, maybe take a weekend and go for a small road trip. Do something that gets you out and interacting and putting some amount of money back in the economy.

There are discussions to be had, honest discussions, about what our institutions did right and wrong during this mess. Believe it or not, there are some good things that were accomplished. But there were many bad as well. In fact, the media, government, and medical community has done more to exacerbate this problem than they have to help it.  Leaving out the front-line workers obviously.

But that's a long discussion for another day.

Right now you need to focus on you. Your mental health, your physical health, your financial health. These are things that the government, and the media, cannot help you with. Yes, unemployment and SBA loans can provide bridge support, but your long-term health and wealth is, and should be, your own concern.

I might suggest that you take this opportunity to re-evaluate what you're doing in your career. How can you improve your lot in life?

We're at the beginning of what is going to be a long, bumpy road to recovery and whatever comes beyond. Given the rather pathetic state of leadership in the world today I've a bad feeling there are going to be more missteps than steps-forward as we do. During all of this it will be vital that you keep your eyes on you and yours, not on the Bronzed Ego or Nancy Ice Cream.

When it comes to politicians and other institutions: Eff 'em.  Let them scoop their ice cream and argue amongst themselves and continue to play-pretend that they're somehow "fighting".

For the more serious among us, let's look out for each other.  And if you wake up in the morning and find yourself feeling down, don't be afraid to ask for help. There's nothing weak about needing a helping hand, or a shoulder to cry on or just a friendly person to vent to.

Keep your head up, with a mask on and 6 feet away from the other person who is trying to keep their head up as well.

But let's get our heads up out THERE, where things are happening and we need to be a part of them.

A COVID Revival

On Dec 31st 2019 I wrote what I thought would be my last post on this, or any, blog.  I was done, finished, and I really wasn't regretting the decision, nor did I have any reason to write about anything in long form (except the book on business management I'm working on) so I really didn't miss it.

Then strange times hit. The world locked down (apparently on the advice of some very dodgy (false) modeling) and we've all been confined to our homes, "essential" trips only kids, and forced to tele-commute, work from home, and in many cases, lose our jobs, be forced to take cuts in pay etc.

Tens of thousands have died and Millions have been infected. In a year where I was fully planning on reducing my social media use drastically, circumstances have required that more time is spent on various mediums, for no other reason than to keep some kind of interaction going.

I've started fiddling with YouTube, working on videos that I fully intend to keep going. I've been active on Twitter, less snarky and more supportive to folks, I've been watching friend's YouTube videos and greatly enjoying them.

Unlike some in the media, I'm not apprehensive. I don't have "angst" about venturing into public, I'm not having an existential moment, I'm just working and taking walks and eating healthy, I've actually lost some weight during this mess.  Mentally I'm just fine. I have my wife, my dogs and my family for support.

Yes, if you follow along on Twitter and YouTube you know that Mom recently passed. But I'm at peace with that because now she is no longer in pain.

So, overall, I'm good.  What I have found out during this time is what I instinctively knew from years of writing blogs.  I'm not a born entertainer, I'm not someone who's ever going to have 50 gazillion followers and subscribers.  Others are celebrating their 2, 3 or 10 thousandth YouTube subscriber, I was ecstatic to break 50. c'est la vie to be honest.  I've been off for a bit but I'll start back soon.  There's only so many videos you can make of yourself sitting and talking with a brown curtain in the background.

As for Vegas, that's not happening for a while. Not because I'm scared of traveling, I'm not, but because I simply cannot afford it given work realities right now.  Maybe October? Maybe not. Probably not until the job situation changes.

What I am planning on is returning to a casino in June. My local casino, which gets authorization from the State to re-open May 18th.  Currently I'm planning a trip in late June. I'm hoping I can record some play and show you all what the new "new" is.

Until then I'm going to temporarily revive this wheezing relic, to provide some thoughts, insights and all of the other junk you used to know and love. I'll probably keep it going throughout the pandemic, but I'm not sure after that.  It might stay around as an extension of the brand, it may not.

But you at least have around 3-4 months of ignoring it, and that's a healthy hunk of reality right there.

Be healthy.

(In a nod to interaction I'm going to try and reinstate comments on here. We'll see how it goes)