There is no other way to say this....2020 has been awful.
From a global pandemic that was utterly mishandled by world governments to a United States response that was ham-fisted, inept in many areas and downright fraudulent in some, it's been a year of missed opportunities, dumb governance and, for too many, lost income and loved ones.
Normally, when I do these "prediction" posts, I try to keep it light and come up with ridiculous items that JUST border on the verge of being possible. But this year I'm not feeling all that humorous, so I'm going to make some serious predictions at five different levels (National, Texas, Nevada, Houston, Las Vegas). Unlike previous years, these are things that I actually believe are going to happen within the Nation, the City and State where I currently reside, and the City and State that I like to visit frequently,
Since we're all anxious to put 2020 behind us, let's dive right in.
National Predictions:
1. Before the end of 2021, the movement to replace Biden as President will be well underway.
Like Biden or not, there is no doubt that the man is suffering from senility at this point in his life. It's been sad really to watch him get lost, confused, and be unable to answer even the simplest questions without visual (or audio) aids.
2. Regardless of who controls the Senate, the Democrats will be unable to deliver on many of the grand plans they have promised.
For one, they had control of Congress and the White House during Obama's first term, and what they provided the country was the fetid mess that is ObamaCare. Two, and the country are going to discover very quickly that all of the grand plans will not be accomplished through their "soak the rich" tax plans. There's just not enough money in the kitty to fund all that they are proposing.
3. The National response to COVID-19 under a Biden regime will be just as inept as it has been under the Trump Regime.
Grand pronouncements to the contrary, they're not going to be able to pull this off because they are going to rely on the government bureaucracy to pull it off and, as we've seen, that is a recipe for full-on disaster.
Predictions for the State of Nevada.
1. The budget situation is going to be dire. Sisolak will have no clue how to fix it.
The fact that Governor Gene Sisolak is not an effective executive is going to come into full relief, more than it already has, in 2021. He's incapable of suggesting the taxation of sacred cows (i.e. the mining industry), he's a man of no executive creativity and the people are going to see this as budgets get cut and the State sinks further into a fiscal abyss.
2. Nevada WILL get a lottery.
While I'm not entirely sure of the exact mechanizations in Nevada State Law for this (for example, does it require voter approval or no? Not sure) but I do predict that one of the first things attempted to try and bring in new revenue will be attempts to establish both multi-state progressive lotteries and those dreaded scratch-off cards. Sub-prediction: The revenues gained "for the children" will be far less than projections.
Predictions for the City of Las Vegas:
1. It's going to be a ROUGH 2021
I don't see conventions coming back prior to 2022, and even then, some of these bigger events are in the processing of finding new homes, and cities willing to roll out the red carpet for them. Given the increasing costs of visiting the Strip companies, who are also employing people suffering from tough times, are going to start to look for other options.
2. One big casino operator is going to abandon Las Vegas.
The obvious answer is Sands, who is already exploring it, but I'd keep my eye on the new Caesars. As the Las Vegas Strip continues to remake itself into an overpriced bordello there's going to be less and less value there. The old saying was "gamblers still gonna gamble" but the Strip's problem is that they've abandoned the gambler.
Predictions for Texas:
1. The population bleed from the big cities will continue.
As the progressive, anti-business, ideologies continue to permeate the ruling classes of city governance people are going to continue to choose to move out and drive back in rather than living in an increasingly high-crime environment that boasts higher tax rates and fewer services.
2. No, Virginia, Texas is NOT going to approve sports betting in any form in 2021.
Texas will not expand gambling until the time that the State turns blue. No matter how much sense this one thing makes (casino gambling is a different matter altogether) it will not happen.
3. The newest "Blue Star" for the media is going to be Lina Hidalgo.
Harris County's grad-student County Judge is already receiving glowing profiles from the Texas Lock-Step Political Media, and even some National Media, despite the fact that she's not even really running the County (Rodney Ellis is running the county). She's going to get a hard push to challenge Abbott for Governor, or possibly Dan Patrick for Lt. Governor.
Predictions for Houston:
1. There will be a major flood in 2021.
The City will be 100% unprepared to deal with it. For all of the talk, post Harvey, about "something, must be done!" The fact is little actually HAS been done. A lot of this is due to Judge Lina Hidalgo deciding to put everything back in the sausage making machine in the name of "social justice" (which is odd, because flood water knows nothing about this).
2. Houston will miss-out on the "tech boom" that's coming to Texas.
Yes, they welcomed HP, but that was outside of the city limits. Austin will receive most of the windfall from this, and Houston will be left behind with the city leadership wondering what the heck happened.
OK, that's where I'm going to leave it for now. I'm hoping that 2021 is the year where we all get the vaccine, it works, and we can get back to something resembling normal and place politics and government back in the background where they belong.
Happy New Year and good luck to all of you.
