College Football: Season Preview: Conference USA

Fair warning:  I'm not in love with my projections for this conference. I'm OK with the two teams I have one top, but I'm struggling with Western KY's overall record.  The problem is that I just cannot find a game where I say "they're going to lose", although I fully expect them to with a new coach.

When the dust settles I fully believe that Western Kentucky will end up the conference champion by besting Louisiana Tech in the Championship game.

Here's how I see it going:

Conference Standings:
WEST		W	L	EAST		W	L
Louisiana Tech		9	3	Western Kentucky		10	2
UTSA		9	3	Middle Tennessee		8	4
Southern Miss		7	5	Old Dominion		7	5
Rice		3	9	Marshall		6	6
North Texas		3	9	Florida Atlantic		4	8
UAB		2	10	Florida International		3	9
UTEP		1	11	Charlotte		2	10
Wins Division				Wins Division
Conference Championship:
		Western Kentucky Over Louisiana Tech
Bowl Teams:		7
CFP:		None
Big Six		None
CFP 2:		None
Others:		Western Kentucky
		UTSA
		Southern Miss
		Middle Tennessee
		Louisiana Tech
		Old Dominion
		Marshall
Most Underrated:		UTSA
Most Overrated:		Florida Atlantic
Coaches on Hot Seat:		UTEP, Rice

I'm going to spend a little bit of time on Western Kentucky.  Yes, Jeff Brohm has gone on to lose at Purdue, and yes they lost some on defense, but they still have QB Mike White returning and a host of play makers for him to get the ball to. They also return 3 offensive linemen from a group that was very good last year.  New DC Clayton White is an up and coming coach, and they seem to have enough talent (especially in the secondary, to be good once again.

Then there's this:  Out of conference they play Eastern Kentucky, Illinois (which will be better but not good IMO), Ball State and Vanderbilt. I can see them running the table there. Plus, they get La Tech, and Middle Tennessee at home.  Will they make a New Year's Six bowl if they run the table?  No, because the bottom half of C-USA is pathetic, but is it possible they do?  Yes.

In the West I think La Tech gets surprised a little bit by a UTSA team that's going to be highly underrated this year, and pretty good to boot. After that Old Dominion is still a good football team, and I think Doc Holliday saves his job by finishing 6-6 and making a bowl game.

Now for the elephant in the room: Lane Kiffin. Kiffin's MO in the past has been inheriting good teams and flushing them down the toilet. Despite this many pundits believe that he's going to somehow transform Florida Atlantic into a power overnight.  I just don't see it.  He's recruiting (relatively) well and I think he'll eventually get enough character risk/high talent guys to play for the Owls so they compete, but I don't see it this year.

Rice and UTEP will be looking for new coaches in the offseason, and UAB is just happy to be here. Southern Miss is back on the rise, but North Texas, Florida International and Charlotte have a LOT of work to do.

Prediction: UTEP will win ESPN's "Bottom 10" award as the worst team in the country, just beating out Texas State.

OPOY: Brent Stockstill (MTSU)
DPOY: Jaylon Ferguson (La Tech)
COY: Mike Sanford (WKU)

College Football: USA Today Sports Information Direct... ummm..Coaches poll released.

The College Football poll with the most misleading name ever was released today:

The Amway Coaches Poll  

While it's not too wrong at the top, the bottom half leaves much to be desired....

1. Alabama (Duh)

2. Ohio State (Yup)

3. Florida State (Uh-huh)

4. USC (ehhh...)

5. Clemson (uh uh)

6. Penn State (OK)

7. Washington (more on this later)

8. Oklahoma (about right)

9. Michigan (meh)

10. Wisconsin (yes)

11. Oklahoma State (good)

12. LSU (sure)

13. Auburn (more in a bit)

14. Stanford (nope)

15. Georgia (sure, why not)

16. Florida (much too low)

17. Louisville (low)

18 Miami (meh)

19. Kansas State (way, way too high)

20 West Virginia (too high)

21 South Florida (probably too low)

22 Virginia tech (low)

23 Texas (low)

24 Tennessee (meh)

25 Utah (nope)

Teams also receiving votes are in the following order:

26. Washington State (high)

27. Colorado (high)

28 TCU (low)

29 Boise State (low)

Tie Notre Dame (high)

31 Texas A&M (high)

32 Pittsburgh (high)

33 NC State (high)

34 Oregon (OK)

35 Northwestern (high)

There are more but I'll stop there.

My biggest issue?  In the top 35 these esteemed "coaches" only saw fit to include 2 (two) non Power 5 conference schools.

South Florida at 21 is a joke. Based on paper (and at this point the poll is entirely based on paper) they should contend for a top 10 ranking this year and will more than likely be the Group of 5 representative to the "Here's a Cookie Now Don't Sue Us Bowl" of the year, the Cotton Bowl.  This slot was designed to prevent the Group of 5 conferences from suing due to a total lack of inclusion into the CFP.

Not said however, the way that the CFP excludes the Group of 5 conferences from playoff participation is by artificially ranking them low in the first place. The same can be said for Boise State, and Western Kentucky, and Toledo and whoever the hell voted Tulsa higher than Houston this year.

Think about this:  Arizona has 2 votes, one higher than projected conference winner Toledo and it's more than likely the Wildcats are going to have a losing season and get their coach fired this year.

The conference breakdown of the Top 25 is as follows:

SEC - 6 (of course)

ACC - 5

BigXII - 5

B1G - 4

PAC-12 - 4

AAC - 1

That the BigXII has more schools in the top 25 than the PAC 12 is crazy. That they have more than the BIG is defensible, but still out of sorts.  That this poll factors into calculating the members of the College Football Playoff is just sad.

Now, I'm not suggesting that Western Kentucky or Wyoming or Toledo could beat Alabama. But don't you think there's a better than average chance they COULD beat Utah or Kansas State?

Yup, and that's why this poll is so flawed.

College Football: Season Preview: The Midwestern Athletic Conference

In 2016 Western Michigan rowed the boat all the way to a drubbing in a New Year's Six bowl. But that was a win for a conference who often finds itself hopelessly lost in the shadow of the geographically similar B1G.  While I think the Broncos will still be plenty good, I think they will miss P.J. Fleck quite a bit and I also think they run up against a Toledo team that's loaded.

In the East I think it's the revenge of coaching war horse Frank Solich who will win the East but will, once again, fall short in the championship game.

Here's how I see it falling out....

Conference Standings: East W L West W L Ohio 10 2 Toledo 11 1 Miami (OH) 9 3 Western Michigan 9 3 Bowling Green 5 7 Central Michigan 8 4 Akron 4 8 Northern Illinois 7 5 Kent State 2 10 Ball State 3 9 Buffalo 1 11 Eastern Michigan 2 10 Won division Won division Conference Championship: Toledo over Ohio Bowl Teams: 6 CFP: None Big 6: None CFP 2: None Others: Ohio Miami (OH) Toledo Western Michigan Central Michigan Northern Illinois Most Underrated: Central Michigan Most Overrated: Eastern Michigan Coaches on Hot Seat: Akron Kent State Ball State Eastern Michigan

The name to pay attention to in the MAC this year is Toledo signal-caller Logan Woodside. I fully expect him to be the conference offensive player of the year and they get Western Michigan at home. Defensively the Rockets should be pretty good as well, returning seven starters. In the East I see it being a two-team race that feels similar to 2016.  Miami (OH) and Ohio will be right at the top all year and their game against each other (Halloween, at Ohio) will probably determine the conference winner.  I give the edge to Ohio because they are going to have an outstanding defense to go along with a competent offense.

My bold MAC prediction is this:  Central Michigan is going to be pretty good this year and will comfortably make a bowl at 8-4. I think Michigan transfer Josh Morris gets the starting nod and is successful in getting the ball to a talented group of playmakers.

I also think, sadly, that Eastern Michigan is going to struggle again.  They'll score at ton of points, but they'll give up more.  Add to that a brutal schedule and I can't see them winning more than two games.  That's too bad because I think head coach Cris Creighton did some good work last year, but coaching at EMU is going to do him in.

The problem, again, for the MAC is that once you get past the top teams, the conference falls off a ledge. Kent State and Buffalo should compete for the worst team in the league, with Kent State HC Paul Haynes being shown the exit by season's end. Ball State, and Akron are also going to be pretty bad, and we've already discussed the plight of EMU.

2017 won't have the magical ride for the MAC that 2016 did, but it won't be bad either with a projected six teams receiving bowl bids.

OPOY: Logan Woodside (Toledo)

DPOY: Quentin Poling (Ohio)

COY: Frank Solich (Ohio)

College Football: Season Previews: Mountain West

Last year San Diego State was the glamour team of the conference, they even had an outside chance, for a bit, of becoming the G5 representative in the New Year's Six shut-up-and-take-this-nugget-from-us bowl slot.

Even without all-time running back Pumphrey I think the Aztecs still have enough to win the West division. They have a fairly soft schedule outside of the conference so I think they'll bring in a pretty solid record to the end of the year. It's Wyoming however that I think everyone is sleeping on. I think they lose to Iowa and Oregon and then run the table, including beating Boise State on the Smurf Turf.

Here's how I think it goes....

Conference Standings:
Mountain		W	L		West		W	L
Wyoming		10	2		San Diego State		9	3
Boise State		10	2		UNLV		8	4
Colorado State		8	4		Hawaii		6	6
New Mexico		6	6		Fresno State		3	9
Air Force		3	9		Nevada		2	10
Utah State		2	10		San Jose State		1	12

Conference Championship:
	Wyoming over San Diego State
Bowl Teams:		6
	CFP:	None
	Big 6:	None
	CFP 2:	None
	Others:	San Diego State
		Wyoming
		Boise State
		Colorado State
		New Mexico
		UNLV

Most Underrated:	UNLV
Most Overrated:	Boise State
Coaches on Hot Seat:	New Mexico
	Utah State
	Nevada
	San Jose State

The easy road is to pick Boise State as the champion, but I think they're overrated this year. Still, it's hard to pick them coming in lower than second considering the relative lack of strength in the conference overall.

I see Wyoming beating San Diego State in the Championship game. Despite losing Pumphrey SDSU is bringing a LOT of firepower back, defense will be a worry though, which is why I'm picking Wyoming to best them. Wyoming lost their star RB but they have a good crop of WR's, a solid, experienced offensive line and a defense that's going to turn some heads.  They also have one of the best coaches in College football in Craig Bohls.

The interesting thing to watch in the Mountain West this year will be to what extent Colorado State, UNLV and New Mexico improve.  If I were going to pick a team to beat out Wyoming in the Mountain, it wouldn't be Boise State it would be the Rams, and I think UNLV, with new QB Armani Rodgers gives head coach Tony Sanchez the play maker he's been needing on offense. I think that all three make bowl games this year.

I expect Hawai'i to be better as well, and to also qualify for a Bowl game, giving the Hawai'i Bowl a home team again which should help ticket sales. 

Much like in the Sun Belt, the bottom of this league is harsh.  Air Force is in a total rebuild while Fresno State, Nevada, Utah State and San Jose State will muck around the fringes of ESPN's bottom 10 for most of the season.

OPOY: Josh Allen (Wyoming)

DPOY: David Moa (Boise State)

COY: Tony Sanchez (UNLV)

College Football: Season Predictions: The Sun Belt Conference

Few people actually pay much attention to the Sun Belt, or any other Group of Five conference for that matter, but they should.  Over the years the league has worked hard to develop their "Fun Belt" brand through use of the spread offense and a willingness to play football on any day of the week in order to get on TV.

This year they have the added benefit of having some legitimately good teams on the roster.

The conference plays without divisions so they have no championship game.

Here's my prediction for how the season is going to go:

Conference Standings:
	Overall			Conference
Teams (No divisions)	W	L		W	L
Appalachian State	11	1		8	0
Troy	9	3		7	1
Arkansas State	9	3		7	1
Louisiana	7	5		6	2
South Alabama	6	6		5	3
Georgia Southern	6	6		4	4
Georgia State	5	7		3	5
Coastal Carolina	5	7		3	5
New Mexico State	2	10		2	6
ULM	2	10		2	6
Idaho	1	11		1	7
Texas State	1	11		0	8
Bowl Teams:	6
	CFP:	None
	Big Six	None
	CFP 2:	None
	Big Six 2:	None
	Others:	Appalachian State
		Troy
		Arkansas State
		Louisiana
		South Alabama
		Georgia Southern
Most Underrated:	South Alabama
Most Overrated:	Georgia State
Coaches on Hot Seat:	Everyone except App State, Troy and Arkansas State

Not only do they have a clear "best team" in my opinion but they have a definite bottom rung to the conference as well.

Appalachian State should be loaded. QB Taylor Lamb leads an offense that also has star running back (and NFL prospect) Jalin Moore and they also return quality back-up RB Terrence Upshaw. That's a powerful 1-2 punch behind an experienced offensive line which should lead the Mountaineers to wins in every game except their visit to Athens.

Troy and Arkansas State all have enough returning pieces to come in second, with Arkansas State winning the tie-breaker IMO due to the fact that they get the Trojans at home. After that Louisiana (Lafayette) should be good enough to make a bowl game, as should two underrated teams in Georgia Southern and South Alabama.

Coastal Carolina will just fall short, and I think Georgia State is overrated by most and will finish at 5-7 as well. After that it becomes pretty desolate for the league. New Mexico State, Louisiana-Monroe, Idaho and Texas State are all going to be pretty pathetic, In fact, I had to struggle to find a win at all for what I expect to be a bottom 10 Texas State team.

If bigger schools try and poach coaches from the top of the league, you could see a lot of turnover because the schools at the bottom are going to be pretty brutal.

OPOY: Jalin Moore (App State)

DPOY: Eric Boggs (App State)

COY: Scott Satterfield (App State)

College Football: It's almost time!!

With the football season rapidly approaching it's time to dust this old jalopy off and start inundating you with bad sports takes again.  With that in mind here's a quick primer for what to expect in the coming months, starting with a pre-season preview that's guaranteed to be totally incorrect and a return of the FIVE again this year, hopefully with some winning results. (Last season was an unmitigated disaster)

So, here's my plan:

1. Fun Belt - Expected posting Date: 08/01/2017
2. Mountain West - Expected posting date: 08/02/2017
3. MAC - Expected posting date: 08/03/2017
4. C-USA - Expected posting date: 08/04/2017
5. American - Expected posting date: 08/05/2017
6. Independents - Expected posting date: 08/06/2017
7. SEC - Expected posting date: 08/07/2017
8. ACC - Expected posting date: 08/08/2017
9. PAC-12 - Expected posting date: 08/09/2017
10. Big XII -Expected posting date: 08/10/2017
11. B1G - Expected posting date: 08/11/2017
12. CFP - Expected posting date: 08/12/2017

13. First FIVE: Expected posting date: 08/30/2017

I've not the time to handle a full-on "Bowl Preview" nor do I find much use for them pre-season. But I do think it's a useful exercise to call one's shot on the eventual National Champion.  But, honestly, who makes it to the Las Vegas Bowl (while something I care about) is not a call I'm ready to make at this point.


As always, a couple of pre-season disclaimers:

First, I am NOT an "expert". I do not pass myself off as one.  What you are going to read in the coming days is the opinion of an oil and gas accounting manager from Houston.  Take all of that with a grain of salt.

Second: Any game picks are for entertainment purposes ONLY.  If you take gambling advice from a pudgy, middle-aged man from Houston get help.

Third: I'm a Michigan fan. I try to keep that out of my analysis but I am a fan.

Fourth: Sports should be fun.  Don't ever forget that.