Kentucky Oaks 2018: Notes on the Runners and Wagers

Unlike the Kentucky Derby, the Kentucky Oaks appears, on paper, to be a match race between two really good Fillies. Midnight Bisou and Monomoy Girl.  But I have a couple of other horses that I think might be able to upset the apple cart and who might come in at a price.  Let's look at the contenders....

1. Sassy Sienna (15-1): Ridden by veteran jock Gary Stevens this filly has a speed problem. A big speed problem in that her highest speed rating is a full 11 points behind the favorite and she obtained that three races ago, on a mile run. The post draw in the Oaks is not as big of a deal as in the Derby due to the smaller field but the inside is still a tough place to do business. This stalker/pacer might have trouble due to a lack of true tactical speed.

2. Coach Rocks (12-1): The horse that I think will come into this race as the "sharp" horse only has on Stakes race to her resume (the Grade II Gulfstream Park Oaks) but she did score an impressive closing win over Take Charge Paula, who was highly regarded going in, and will get her chance to rematch. Normally I fade the "sharp" horses in races but her odds might just be long enough to take a stab.

3. Classy Act (15-1): Came in a close second to Monomoy Girl in the Rachel Alexandra at Fair Grounds two starts ago but failed to replicate that in the Fair Grounds Oaks. This is a speed horse who should have a lot to say about the pace of this race but who I believe will falter at the distance. Like Firenze Fire on the male side I would love to see Classy Act become a miler and see what happens later in her career.

4. Chocolate Martini (12-1): Since being claimed on Feb 2nd this horse has gone win, win with two outstanding closing finishes in an Optional Claimer and the aforementioned Fair Ground Oaks. Oh, and neither of those races featured "perfect trips". IF the pace goes crazy (a possibility) then Chocolate Martini could be the horse that sweeps up the crumbs. Will definitely be a factor in my wagers.

5. Wonder Gadot (20-1): This filly has been heavily raced and her last race, a loss by a nose to Sassy Sienna was her best. The problem again is speed.  WG is a pacer who doesn't appear to have enough tactical speed to truly compete Still, might be a factor in my exotics near the bottom.

6. Kelly's Humor (30-1): No speed, and a poor history against horses of this caliber make for a tough ask. This horse would need to improve exponentially to be competitive. Her only stakes win is an overnight and her last competition against similar in this race was a 10th place finish....at Churchill Downs.  Yeesh.

7. Rayya (15-1): The best argument that people are making for this filly is that she finished 2nd to Mendelssohn. The problem is that she finished 2nd to Mendelssohn by 18 lengths. Of all her races the UAE Oaks win was the best but I think she's going to find herself up against it here.

8. Heavenhasmynikki (30-1): Normally, I would take a look a this horse, who's never won a stakes race but never finished lower than 4th and relegate her to a spot in the back of my exotics just in case. But then I saw the jockey.  Calvin Borel, or Bo-Rail, the jockey who's taken several horses at Churchill and ran them along the inside rail to victory.  She's been off for two months which could be a good thing. This is my long shot play.

9. Take Charge Paula (15-1): In my opinion Take Charge Paula is the best of the "other" horses in this race that aren't the two favorites. She's a pacing horse that has flashed the speed to keep up with the big two and has an outside chance of winning.  Yes, the's come in 2nd recently but she did reel off three straight stakes wins (two were overnights) including a pretty good win over My Miss Lilly.

10. Midnight Bisou (5-2): The 2nd most decorated horse in this field although I would argue that strength of competition is a slight concern. Still, this horse has improved in every start since the first one and if that trend continues she should be rumbling down the stretch to challenge for the win.

11. My Miss Lilly (10-1): After a huge jump in performance in the Gazelle My Miss Lilly is, to me, the most difficult horse in this race to handicap.  Was the Gazelle an aberration or was it a sign that Mark Hennig has her firing on all cylinders?  I'm always leery about a horse's next race after a jump like that. How much did it take out of her?

12. Patrona Margarita (30-1): Her best win is over Kelly's Humor, but against other horses in this race she finished far behind.  I don't see the tactical speed here to make a deep run unless there's a speed duel in front of her and she gets the trip to claw up ground. Her biggest problem is that I think there's a better closing option in this race with Chocolate Martini.

13. Eskimo Kisses (15-1): Another late charger that's going to have to hope for a speed duel and that she is the one to pick up the crumbs. This is a horse that I can see coming in 3rd or 4th with no problem, but 1st or 2nd might be a stretch.

14. Monomoy Girl. (2/1): A worthy 2-1 M/L favorite you could see a situation where Monomoy Girl jumps out to the front of this race and never looks back.  My feeling is she's going to go off at somewhere around 7/5 or 6/5 so the smart play is going to be to be to bet against her and if you get beaten by a favorite so what.


My bets:

$10 Win - 10 - Midnight Bisou - Ideally I'll be able to get around 4-1 at post time.
$5 Win - 4 - Chocolate Martini  - Hoping for a price here.
$2 WPS ($6 total) - 8 - Heavenhasmynikki - I've lost too many times to a Borel long shot at Churchill
$2 - Exacta Box -10/14. Box the two favorites in case it's a match race.

$2 Oaks/Derby DD - 14 Monomoy Girl & 10 Midnight Bisou with 7 Justify & 5 Audible

This double is fairly cheap and gives me the top two choices in both races.


$25 Total investment.


Good luck however you play.

Finally: Some Las Vegas 2018 NFL Win Totals

After noting how the offshore books see it we finally are starting to get some NFL win totals from the Vegas books.

As I figured, they're not all that different from 5Dimes.

	CG Technologies
	American Football Conference				National Football Conference
	East		Projection		East		Projection
	New England		12		Philadelphia		10.5
	Miami		7		Dallas		9
	Buffalo		6.5		Washington		7
	New York Jets		5		New York Giants		6.5
	North				North
	Pittsburgh		10.5		Green Bay		10
	Baltimore		8.5		Minnesota		9.5
	Cincinnati		7		Detroit		8
	Cleveland		4.5		Chicago		6.5
	South				South
	Jacksonville		8.5		New Orleans		9.5
	Houston		8.5		Atlanta		9.5
	Tennessee		8		Carolina		9
	Indianapolis Colts		6		Tampa Bay		6.5
	West				West
	Kansas City		8.5		Los Angeles Rams		9.5
	Los Angeles Chargers		8		San Francisco		8.5
	Oakland		8.5		Seattle		9
	Denver		7		Arizona		6.5

	WestGate Superbook
	American Football Conference				National Football Conference
	East		Projection		East		Projection
	New England		11		Philadelphia		10.5
	Miami		6		Dallas		8.5
	Buffalo		6.5		Washington		7
	New York Jets		6		New York Giants		6.5
	North				North
	Pittsburgh		10.5		Green Bay		10
	Baltimore		8		Minnesota		10
	Cincinnati		7		Detroit		8
	Cleveland		5.5		Chicago		6.5
	South				South
	Jacksonville		9		New Orleans		9.5
	Houston		8.5		Atlanta		9
	Tennessee		8		Carolina		9
	Indianapolis Colts		6.5		Tampa Bay		6.5
	West				West
	Kansas City		8.5		Los Angeles Rams		9.5
	Los Angeles Chargers		9		San Francisco		9
	Oakland		8		Seattle		8
	Denver		7		Arizona		5.5

South Point
American Football Conference				National Football Conference
East		Projection		East		Projection
New England		11.5		Philadelphia		10
Miami		6		Dallas		8.5
Buffalo		7.5		Washington		7
New York Jets		6		New York Giants		6.5
North				North
Pittsburgh		10.5		Green Bay		10
Baltimore		8		Minnesota		9.5
Cincinnati		7		Detroit		7.5
Cleveland		5.5		Chicago		6.5
South				South
Jacksonville		9		New Orleans		9.5
Houston		9		Atlanta		9.5
Tennessee		8		Carolina		9
Indianapolis Colts		6.5		Tampa Bay		6.5
West				West
Kansas City		8		Los Angeles Rams		10
Los Angeles Chargers		9.5		San Francisco		8.5
Oakland		8		Seattle		7.5
Denver		7.5		Arizona		6

I hear that Golden Nugget has posted lines but I haven't found them online as of yet. As for the rest (MGM, Caesar's William Hill, Wynn) I'm hearing that the lines won't be publicly available until JULY.  I even hear that ticket writers at those books are referring players to other books to make bets until them.

Odd.

Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks: Post Draws and Morning Line Odds.

They just finished up the post draw for the Kentucky Derby and here are the post positions, jockeys, and morning line odds for both the Derby, and the Kentucky Oaks.

Kentucky Oaks:

Post		Horse	Jockey		Odds
1		Sassy Sienna	G. Stevens		15-1
2		Coach Rocks	L. Saez		12-1
3		Classy Act	B. Hernandez Jr.		15-1
4		Chocolate Martini	J. Castellano		12-1
5		Wonder Gadot	J. Velasquez		20-1
6		Kelly's Humor	I. Ortiz		30-1
7		Rayya	D. Van Dyke		15-1
8		Heavenhasmynikki	C. Borel		30-1
9		Tale Charge Paula	J. Ortiz		15-1
10		Midnight Bisou	M. Smith		5-2
11		My Miss Lilly	J. Bravo		10-1
12		Patrona Margarita	R. Santana Jr.		30-1
13		Eskimo Kisses	C. Lanerie		15-1
14		Monomoy Girl	F. Geroux		2-1

Analysis:  Monomoy Girl, the morning line favorite, draws the outside post, which is not as much of a deterrent to winning in the Oaks as it is the Derby.  The big winner here was Midnight Bisou, the 2nd choice, who draws post 10.  Possible long shot play:  8 Heavenhasmynikki  If you don't know the history of Calvin Borel at Churchill Downs you should.  He didn't get the nickname Calvin Bo-Rail for nothing.  He's been retired so it's interesting that he's come back here.  You should get a hell of a price.

Kentucky Derby:

Post		Horse		Jockey		Odds
1		Firenze Fire		P. Lopez		50-1
2		Free Drop Billy		R. Albarado		30-1
3		Promises Fulfilled		C. Lanerie		30-1
4		Flameaway		J. Lezcano		30-1
5		Audible		J. Casellano		8-1
6		Good Magic		J. Ortiz		12-1
7		Justify		M. Smith		3-1
8		Lone Sailer		J. Graham		50-1
9		Hofburg		I. Ortiz		20-1
10		My Boy Jack		K. Desormeaux		30-1
11		Bolt D'Oro		V. Espinoza		8-1
12		Enticed		J. Alvarado		30-1
13		Bravaso		L. Contreras		50-1
14		Mendelssohn		R. Moore		5-1
15		Instilled Regard		D. Van Dyke		50-1
16		Magnum Moon		L. Saez		6-1
17		Solomini		F. Prat		30-1
18		Vino Rosso		J. Velazquez		12-1
19		Noble Indy		F. Geroux		30-1
20		Combatant		R. Santana		50-1
AE -21		Blended Citizen		K. Frey		50-1

Analysis:  Brutal draw for Todd Pletcher, who gets 16-18 and whose horses will have some work to do.  the M/L favorite, Justify, gets a dream draw at 7, just outside of Audible who is the crowd favorite coming in. Mendelssohn (2nd choice M/L) grabs the 14th spot which is OK, but means that he's going to have ride issues later in the race.  The suspected "sharp" horse, Hofburg, gets a great draw at post #9.  Blended Citizen only gets in if one of the top 20 drop out.

I'll be back later with betting options, predictions.

Kentucky Derby 2018: Still more changes to the list of Derby Hopefuls

Here's the new order after some trainers informed the media their horses are off the trail:

   1.       Magnum Moon
   2.       Good Magic
   3.       Audible
   4.       Noble Indy
   5.       Vino Rosso
   6.       Bolt D’Oro
   7.       Enticed
   8.       Mendelssohn
   9.       Justify
   10.   Flameaway
   11.   Solomini
   12.   Bravazo
   13.   My Boy Jack
   14.   Promises Fulfilled
   15.   Free Drop Billy
   16.   Lone Sailor
   17.   Hofburg
   18.   Firenze Fire
   19.   Combatant
   20.   Instilled Regard
   21.   Blended Citizen
   22.   Dream Baby Dream
   23.   Restoring Hope
   24.   Sporting Chance
   25.   Greyvitos
   26.   Givemeaminut
   27.   Pony Up
   28.   Machismo

The biggest news here is the withdrawal of Gronkowski, who was IN the Derby due to European qualification but who suffered an injury during training then developed a fever after treatment.  So he's out, and Instilled Regard is in.  Blended Citizen now becomes the "next horse up" as Snapper Sinclair's trainer Steve Asmussen announced that he's taking a freshening and will be out of the Derby mix.  Also taking a break (and possibly pointing to the Preakness) is Reride.

I still think we have one or more horses whose connections take a look at it all and decide to forego racing on the First Saturday in May but you never know.

Right now we're still dealing with a heck of a field.

   

NFL 2018: How The Offshore books see it.

More important than the release of the schedules (non-event) or the breathless announcement of the prime-time games (that fewer and fewer are watching) are the official releases of the number lines for win totals for the various NFL teams.

From a strength of schedule standpoint this is a MUCH better option than relying on 2017 team records, as most do.  However, even at this point it's not a perfect system due to the fact that the NFL draft starts on Thursday.

All of that said, here are the O/U win total numbers as first released be the offshore book 5Dimes*.

American Football Conference				National Football Conference
East		Projection		East		Projection
New England		11.5		Philadelphia		10.5
Miami		7		Dallas		9
Buffalo		6.5		Washington		7
New York Jets		5		New York Giants		6
North				North
Pittsburgh		10.5		Green Bay		10
Baltimore		8.5		Minnesota		9.5
Cincinnati		7		Detroit		8
Cleveland		4.5		Chicago		6.5
South				South
Jacksonville		8.5		New Orleans		9.5
Houston		8.5		Atlanta		9
Tennessee		7.5		Carolina		9
Indianapolis Colts		5.5		Tampa Bay		6.5
West				West
Kansas City		9		Los Angeles Rams		9.5
Los Angeles Chargers		8		San Francisco		9
Oakland		8		Seattle		9
Denver		7		Arizona		6.5

*On a funny note, when searching for these numbers I ran across this Houston Chronicle article calling these "Las Vegas Lines". They're not, of course, they're from an offshore book. Granted, Las Vegas uses the offshore lines in setting theirs, but we don't really have any "Las Vegas Lines" out yet (at the time of this publication)  It might help getting someone on staff that understands sports wagering before attempting to report on it Chron.

Kentucky Derby 2018: Early thoughts.

With today's news that Quip will sit out the Derby and wait for the Preakness, as well as the news that Gronkowski suffered an injury in training and might be out, the final field for the 2018 Kentucky Derby on May 5th is starting to take it's final shape.

Here are the top contenders as of now: (ranked in Derby Qualifying Points order)

   1.       Magnum Moon

   2.       Good Magic

   3.       Audible

   4.       Noble Indy

   5.       Vino Rosso

   6.       Bolt D’Oro

   7.       Enticed

   8.       Mendelssohn

   9.       Justify

   10.   Flameaway

   11.   Solomini

   12.   Bravazo

   13.   My Boy Jack

   14.   Promises Fulfilled

   15.   Free Drop Billy

   16.   Lone Sailor

   17.   Hofburg

   18.   Firenze Fire

   19.   Combatant

   20.   Gronkowski (injured in training, might miss)

   21.   Instilled Regard

   22.   Snapper Sinclair

   23.   Blended Citizen

   24.   Reride

   25.   Dream Baby Dream

   26.   Restoring Hope

   As is usual, we won't know the final numbers on the 20 horses running for the first jewel in the Triple  Crown until the end of this week, and then we won't know the true odds until the post draw on May  2nd.  Remember that Post 1 is death, as are posts 18-20.

   Other than that I have a few horses that I'm keying on, and will be taking a very close look at come  Derby Day...

   1. Justify - I think he's the class of the field but the class of the field doesn't usually win when 20 horses  are involved.

   2. Mendelssohn - Maybe the best horse to come from the UAE ever.  Can he win though?

   3. Audible - Very good. Good enough?

   4. Good Magic - The undefeated 2 year old champion is a great horse. Don't like his running style for the  Derby however.

   5. Flameaway - Pending the post draw, this will probably be my "long shot horse".

   6. Vino Rosso - I like this horse more than most. He's the training partner of Audible and has looked  great in works and recent races.

   7. Bolt D'Oro - I think he might be the most talented colt in the field.

   We'll learn a lot more in the coming days but one thing is for certain: This is the most compelling field to  come along in a few years. It should be a great race.

   One thing I do believe is this: IF Justify wins Baffert might be looking at another Triple Crown winner.   Think Arrogate but he blossomed a little earlier.