Supreme Court Allows Sports Betting Across the Country. NBCNews
In typical MSM form, the headline is not entirely accurate.
What the SCOTUS did here (In a 6-3 vote) was declare that the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act of 1992 to be unconstitutional because it effectively placed State Legislatures under Federal Control on the issue of Sports Betting. This was determined to be a violation of the 10th Amendment and is therefore no longer in effect.
What this means is that State Legislatures, rather than the Federal Congress, will now be responsible for legalizing, or otherwise setting rules pertaining to wagering on sporting events.
New Jersey, who filed the lawsuit under the administration of then-Governor Chris Christie, will be the first to roll this out. The state has already passed enabling legislation and many casinos already have the technology in place. Other States with casino gambling already legalized are sure to follow.
If, like me, you live in a backward state, such as Texas, you're likely to see little change from this. As any type of betting on sports is likely to remain illegal in a State that can't even authorize on-line horse wagering in a Country that has a very advanced, fairly regulated system for doing so.
But, if you want to make a bet on your Texans or Cowboys the odds are that fairly soon you'll be able to drive over to either Louisiana or Oklahoma and do so.
Monday, May 14, 2018
Monday, May 7, 2018
Kentucky Derby 2018: Hype, Justified
In the end, Justify was, in fact, that good. Yes, the race was slow (2:04.9 making it the slowest race of the last 20 years) but the early fractions were ridiculous and when every horse faded away, the big brown colt seemingly got stronger.
In the end the race probably wasn't as close at the 2 1/2 length final margin of victory suggested. It all seemed so easy for this linebacker of a horse.
But let's not gift him the Triple Crown just yet. While it's true the Preakness is not shaping up to offer much competition there's still the uncomfortable fact that this is a two-week turnaround, something the horse has never done. By all accounts he looked and acted great after the race but let's see what happens.
Then there's the Belmont, which figures to have several horses running that are rested from the Derby against a horse that will have raced in the interim. IF Justify is as good as many (including me) think he can be then he'll rise above. But winning the Triple Crown is HARD. And it's typically only done by really great horses.
Personally, on the betting front, my $20 win wager on Justify salvaged a pretty bad betting day. A day where I was agonizingly close on many bets, but ultimately came up short. I missed the Derby Superfecta due to Instilled Regard's out-of-nowhere 4th place ride (on another note, Drayden Van Dyke is going to be the top jockey in America in 5 or 6 years) and despite having Funny Duck and Justify in my pick 4, the winners of the other two races were on my 'first horse out' list because one must have a budget and you can't pick them all.
I also hit on one of the earlier stakes races, and the night before at Sam Houston I hit on a 14-1 shot live there betting him across the board.
I also hit the Oaks/Derby Double ($16.60) although I missed on the "chalk" Exacta in the Oaks and missed elsewhere.
All in all, with $100ish wagered I'm getting back about.....$100ish.
Sadly the Preakness will probably feature Justify as a 1/9 favorite, and you're unlikely to get much higher on Monomoy Girl if she runs in the Black Eyed Susan.
This means that the Preakness is going to be all about the exotics. I'll delve into how I'm planning to make a little bit of money on that later. Yes, I'll be keying on Justify.
Congrats also to The lady who turned $18 into $1.2 Million betting the Derby Day Pick 5 from Austin's Retama Park.
Well done.
In the end the race probably wasn't as close at the 2 1/2 length final margin of victory suggested. It all seemed so easy for this linebacker of a horse.
But let's not gift him the Triple Crown just yet. While it's true the Preakness is not shaping up to offer much competition there's still the uncomfortable fact that this is a two-week turnaround, something the horse has never done. By all accounts he looked and acted great after the race but let's see what happens.
Then there's the Belmont, which figures to have several horses running that are rested from the Derby against a horse that will have raced in the interim. IF Justify is as good as many (including me) think he can be then he'll rise above. But winning the Triple Crown is HARD. And it's typically only done by really great horses.
Personally, on the betting front, my $20 win wager on Justify salvaged a pretty bad betting day. A day where I was agonizingly close on many bets, but ultimately came up short. I missed the Derby Superfecta due to Instilled Regard's out-of-nowhere 4th place ride (on another note, Drayden Van Dyke is going to be the top jockey in America in 5 or 6 years) and despite having Funny Duck and Justify in my pick 4, the winners of the other two races were on my 'first horse out' list because one must have a budget and you can't pick them all.
I also hit on one of the earlier stakes races, and the night before at Sam Houston I hit on a 14-1 shot live there betting him across the board.
I also hit the Oaks/Derby Double ($16.60) although I missed on the "chalk" Exacta in the Oaks and missed elsewhere.
All in all, with $100ish wagered I'm getting back about.....$100ish.
Sadly the Preakness will probably feature Justify as a 1/9 favorite, and you're unlikely to get much higher on Monomoy Girl if she runs in the Black Eyed Susan.
This means that the Preakness is going to be all about the exotics. I'll delve into how I'm planning to make a little bit of money on that later. Yes, I'll be keying on Justify.
Congrats also to The lady who turned $18 into $1.2 Million betting the Derby Day Pick 5 from Austin's Retama Park.
Well done.
Friday, May 4, 2018
Kentucky Derby 2018: Notes on the Runners and Wagers
Now that we have post draws, morning line odds and a chance to do some proper handicapping here are my thoughts on the 2018 Derby Contenders....
1. Firenze Fire (50-1): Had a much better 2 yo season than he has as a 3yo but has never won a race over a mile in distance and has lost his last three, the last two by an average of 10 lengths. Throw in the dreaded on hole and Firenze Fire should be a non-factor in this race. Later in his career I'll show great interest if his connections decide that he could be a champion miler.
2. Free Drop Billy (30-1): Hasn't run horribly in his last three races but hasn't exactly set the world on fire either. With only two wins in his career and low speed figures in all his races (compared to the rest of the field) I just don't see him being able to overcome this inside post. Will need to improve.
3. Promises Fulfilled (30-1): Looked good in the Fountain of Youth and then horrible in the Florida Derby. Has a Beyer of 104 in the FoY which is comparable to the best horses in this race but it's unclear whether or not he's a true Grade 1 racer. Will need to improve mightily to win here, but might sneak into the minor placings IF he gets a good trip.
4. Flameaway (30-1): One of the more intriguing horses in this race in that he's raced the tough horses close, and beaten some of them as well. Certainly needs to improve here and might not be helped by all of the speed in this race. Might be a decent long shot play however. Might have a future career as a sprinter.
5. Audible (8-1): Easily trainer Todd Pletcher's best chance to win the Derby and he's on a 4 race win streak, and he's gotten better every race. Justify is the M/L favorite but methinks Audible will leave as the post-time favorite and it's easy to see why. Whether you like him or not, and I do, you have to use him in your exotics and you might not want to be left out in case he is the best horse in this field.
6. Good Magic (12-1): They say that every horse has one great race in them and I think Good Magic's race was the Breeder's Cup Juvenile last November. He hasn't come close to replicating that speed sense and appears to be a really good, but not great horse who could find himself surrounded by two great horses in this race.
7. Justify (3-1): This undefeated son of Scat Daddy is trying to undo the 136 year-old Curse of Apollo. He MIGHT have the chops to do it but I'd pump the brakes on the American Pharoah comparisons just yet. Still, he's done nothing wrong in his three races to date and I thought his Santa Anita Derby run was more impressive than many of the pundits on TV. He keeps getting better and batter and if he betters what he's done in the past on Saturday look out.
8. Lone Sailor (50-1): There are always horses that qualify for the Derby who come from small barns, trainers and for whom just getting their is an accomplishment. On Paper Lone Sailor is that. But he does have some closing speed and he has run close to some of the horses in this race so you never know. Would be a stretch though.
9. Hofburg (20-1): Lightly raced, steadily improving in every race and although Audible beat him handily in the Florida Derby if he continues to improve (a la Justify) he could make for an interesting entry. Rumored to be the "sharp horse" who typically gets over bet and then disappoints in the Derby as the "experts" try and get too cute with is. Will use him in my exotics, and won't leave him out of my Pick 4.
10. My Boy Jack (30-1): He's a pure closer, and I have an aversion to betting closers in the Derby. The reason for this is because the size of the field almost ensures that horses in the back will have traffic/trip issues. That said, I think he's got the best finishing kick in the race so I'll probably feature him in my Derby Superfecta in hopes of getting a price in there.
11. Blot d'Oro (8-1): In my opinion Bolt is the most overrated horse in this fied. He's had good speed figures but he's showing a worrying tendency to cross the line 2nd in bigger races. He was given the win in the San Felipe when McKinzie was DQ's for a late outside bump in the stretch but I always thought McKinzie was the better horse in that race. He'll be in my exotics for sure, but I won't be placing anything on him to win. Depending on his off odds a show bet might be in the offering however.
12. Enticed (30-1): Yet another horse in the Derby that I think is going to be wasted at a mile and a quarter. His best race was the Gr III Gotham at a mile, which is where I think his best days forward might be. I would love to see Enticed and Firenze Fire meet up at either the Met Mile or the Breeder's Cup Mile later this year.
13. Bravazo (50-1): Who knows what happened to Bravazo in the Louisiana Derby but he laid an egg. I just don't think he has the speed to keep up with the other horses in the field, and he doesn't has the late kick he needs to make up the ground. When he won the Risen Star, it was the fastest he ever ran and he didn't have to make up any ground. That won't happen in the Derby.
14. Mendelssohn (5-1): Yes, he's come a LONG way to run in this race but his UAE Derby finish might have been the best KY Derby prep run we've seen all year. It seems to be as the races get longer this horse gets better. He's one of my top choices and I'll be featuring him prominently in my wagering.
15. Instilled Regard (50-1): When Instilled Regard has ran against Derby caliber horses he's come in 4th. When he's ran against fringe Derby horses he's won. I consider Instilled Regard to be similar to a gate keeper in boxing. IF you can beat him you should be racing against the big boys, if you can't you aren't a top caliber horse. Still, he's the horse this year that makes the KY Derby Superfecta so hard to hit. You can't include them all and he's never finished lower than 4th.
16. Magnum Moon (6-1): Also facing the curse of Apollo, also undefeated, also seemed to get better as the races got longer. Magnum Moon is a speed horse and he should figure in the early pace. Will he tire? I'm not sure. But he's a good horse that's beaten good horses and if you like Justify you have to like Magnum Moon.
17. Solomini (30-1): Solomini has made a habit of running among the Derby favorites, beating some of them, but ultimately coming in 2nd or 3rd. Still, this is a horse with some tactical speed that has never finished worse than third in any race so here's another example of why the Derby Superfecta is so hard to hit.
18. Vino Rosso (12-1): The training partner to Audible and a horse that I've been very high on since the infamous morning work where he made the latter look like a yard horse. The problem here is the post-draw, and the fact that until the Wood Memorial this horse looked average against many of these horses. It's possible that this horse just figured it out at the Wood or it could be that he just really took a liking to Aqueduct. Tough for me to determine. This is the one horse that I'm struggling with on where to place him in this race.
19. Noble Indy. (30-1): IF you can draw a line through the Risen Star where this horse was jostled at the start and still rallied to finish 2nd, then there's a case to be made for Noble Indy based on the Louisiana Derby. The problem is that Noble Indy appears, on paper, to be just a notch below these horses at the present time but might be one to watch later in the year. (Haskell, Travers etc.) I don't think he's fast enough to overcome that outside draw. If he's the horse that beats me I'm comfortable with that.
20. Combatant (50-1): This half-brother to Justify is a pure closer. Expect to find him way off the pace and looking to rally through horses at the end. I don't like his tactical speed, I don't like that he's never won at the Stakes level but I do like that he's never finished lower than 4th. I think he's going to be up against it here and with his post draw I see him struggling to compete against the class in this race.
AE 21. Blended Citizen (50-1): If he gets in due to a scratch (increasingly unlikely) I don't see him having the speed to compete. He's not done well against Derby Caliber horses.
How I'm wagering.
$20 Win - 7 - Justify. I've watched all of his races on tape and I'm a believer. I didn't see the weakening in the Santa Anita that some horse players claimed to see. He outran the field, and coasted home. He's very fast out of the gate so I think he gets the position he wants and Mike Smith in the irons is too smart to get caught up in a speed duel.
$10 Win - 5 - Audible. This horse is just too good to leave out Period.
$5 Win - 14 - Mendelssohn. I loved his UAE win but he's got several things working against him. Including faster horses to his inside. Still, he's in with a chance.
$2 Win - 19 - Noble Indy. Of all the long shot runners with a chance I can make the strongest case for him.
$2 WPS ($6 Total) - 4 - Flameaway. It's hard for me to leave this horse totally out.
$1 Supr. ($32 total)- 7 with 5-6-14 with 5-6-14-18- with 4-6-14-16-18
$75 Total Investment.
Clearly I'm keying on Justify as my favorite but I'm trying to go fairly broad at the bottom of the card. I think Audible is 2nd best but I give him trip consideration to third. After that it's wide open. I'm probably too chalky at the top but as I've said throughout, this is a TOUGH super to figure out.
Good luck however you play.
1. Firenze Fire (50-1): Had a much better 2 yo season than he has as a 3yo but has never won a race over a mile in distance and has lost his last three, the last two by an average of 10 lengths. Throw in the dreaded on hole and Firenze Fire should be a non-factor in this race. Later in his career I'll show great interest if his connections decide that he could be a champion miler.
2. Free Drop Billy (30-1): Hasn't run horribly in his last three races but hasn't exactly set the world on fire either. With only two wins in his career and low speed figures in all his races (compared to the rest of the field) I just don't see him being able to overcome this inside post. Will need to improve.
3. Promises Fulfilled (30-1): Looked good in the Fountain of Youth and then horrible in the Florida Derby. Has a Beyer of 104 in the FoY which is comparable to the best horses in this race but it's unclear whether or not he's a true Grade 1 racer. Will need to improve mightily to win here, but might sneak into the minor placings IF he gets a good trip.
4. Flameaway (30-1): One of the more intriguing horses in this race in that he's raced the tough horses close, and beaten some of them as well. Certainly needs to improve here and might not be helped by all of the speed in this race. Might be a decent long shot play however. Might have a future career as a sprinter.
5. Audible (8-1): Easily trainer Todd Pletcher's best chance to win the Derby and he's on a 4 race win streak, and he's gotten better every race. Justify is the M/L favorite but methinks Audible will leave as the post-time favorite and it's easy to see why. Whether you like him or not, and I do, you have to use him in your exotics and you might not want to be left out in case he is the best horse in this field.
6. Good Magic (12-1): They say that every horse has one great race in them and I think Good Magic's race was the Breeder's Cup Juvenile last November. He hasn't come close to replicating that speed sense and appears to be a really good, but not great horse who could find himself surrounded by two great horses in this race.
7. Justify (3-1): This undefeated son of Scat Daddy is trying to undo the 136 year-old Curse of Apollo. He MIGHT have the chops to do it but I'd pump the brakes on the American Pharoah comparisons just yet. Still, he's done nothing wrong in his three races to date and I thought his Santa Anita Derby run was more impressive than many of the pundits on TV. He keeps getting better and batter and if he betters what he's done in the past on Saturday look out.
8. Lone Sailor (50-1): There are always horses that qualify for the Derby who come from small barns, trainers and for whom just getting their is an accomplishment. On Paper Lone Sailor is that. But he does have some closing speed and he has run close to some of the horses in this race so you never know. Would be a stretch though.
9. Hofburg (20-1): Lightly raced, steadily improving in every race and although Audible beat him handily in the Florida Derby if he continues to improve (a la Justify) he could make for an interesting entry. Rumored to be the "sharp horse" who typically gets over bet and then disappoints in the Derby as the "experts" try and get too cute with is. Will use him in my exotics, and won't leave him out of my Pick 4.
10. My Boy Jack (30-1): He's a pure closer, and I have an aversion to betting closers in the Derby. The reason for this is because the size of the field almost ensures that horses in the back will have traffic/trip issues. That said, I think he's got the best finishing kick in the race so I'll probably feature him in my Derby Superfecta in hopes of getting a price in there.
11. Blot d'Oro (8-1): In my opinion Bolt is the most overrated horse in this fied. He's had good speed figures but he's showing a worrying tendency to cross the line 2nd in bigger races. He was given the win in the San Felipe when McKinzie was DQ's for a late outside bump in the stretch but I always thought McKinzie was the better horse in that race. He'll be in my exotics for sure, but I won't be placing anything on him to win. Depending on his off odds a show bet might be in the offering however.
12. Enticed (30-1): Yet another horse in the Derby that I think is going to be wasted at a mile and a quarter. His best race was the Gr III Gotham at a mile, which is where I think his best days forward might be. I would love to see Enticed and Firenze Fire meet up at either the Met Mile or the Breeder's Cup Mile later this year.
13. Bravazo (50-1): Who knows what happened to Bravazo in the Louisiana Derby but he laid an egg. I just don't think he has the speed to keep up with the other horses in the field, and he doesn't has the late kick he needs to make up the ground. When he won the Risen Star, it was the fastest he ever ran and he didn't have to make up any ground. That won't happen in the Derby.
14. Mendelssohn (5-1): Yes, he's come a LONG way to run in this race but his UAE Derby finish might have been the best KY Derby prep run we've seen all year. It seems to be as the races get longer this horse gets better. He's one of my top choices and I'll be featuring him prominently in my wagering.
15. Instilled Regard (50-1): When Instilled Regard has ran against Derby caliber horses he's come in 4th. When he's ran against fringe Derby horses he's won. I consider Instilled Regard to be similar to a gate keeper in boxing. IF you can beat him you should be racing against the big boys, if you can't you aren't a top caliber horse. Still, he's the horse this year that makes the KY Derby Superfecta so hard to hit. You can't include them all and he's never finished lower than 4th.
16. Magnum Moon (6-1): Also facing the curse of Apollo, also undefeated, also seemed to get better as the races got longer. Magnum Moon is a speed horse and he should figure in the early pace. Will he tire? I'm not sure. But he's a good horse that's beaten good horses and if you like Justify you have to like Magnum Moon.
17. Solomini (30-1): Solomini has made a habit of running among the Derby favorites, beating some of them, but ultimately coming in 2nd or 3rd. Still, this is a horse with some tactical speed that has never finished worse than third in any race so here's another example of why the Derby Superfecta is so hard to hit.
18. Vino Rosso (12-1): The training partner to Audible and a horse that I've been very high on since the infamous morning work where he made the latter look like a yard horse. The problem here is the post-draw, and the fact that until the Wood Memorial this horse looked average against many of these horses. It's possible that this horse just figured it out at the Wood or it could be that he just really took a liking to Aqueduct. Tough for me to determine. This is the one horse that I'm struggling with on where to place him in this race.
19. Noble Indy. (30-1): IF you can draw a line through the Risen Star where this horse was jostled at the start and still rallied to finish 2nd, then there's a case to be made for Noble Indy based on the Louisiana Derby. The problem is that Noble Indy appears, on paper, to be just a notch below these horses at the present time but might be one to watch later in the year. (Haskell, Travers etc.) I don't think he's fast enough to overcome that outside draw. If he's the horse that beats me I'm comfortable with that.
20. Combatant (50-1): This half-brother to Justify is a pure closer. Expect to find him way off the pace and looking to rally through horses at the end. I don't like his tactical speed, I don't like that he's never won at the Stakes level but I do like that he's never finished lower than 4th. I think he's going to be up against it here and with his post draw I see him struggling to compete against the class in this race.
AE 21. Blended Citizen (50-1): If he gets in due to a scratch (increasingly unlikely) I don't see him having the speed to compete. He's not done well against Derby Caliber horses.
How I'm wagering.
$20 Win - 7 - Justify. I've watched all of his races on tape and I'm a believer. I didn't see the weakening in the Santa Anita that some horse players claimed to see. He outran the field, and coasted home. He's very fast out of the gate so I think he gets the position he wants and Mike Smith in the irons is too smart to get caught up in a speed duel.
$10 Win - 5 - Audible. This horse is just too good to leave out Period.
$5 Win - 14 - Mendelssohn. I loved his UAE win but he's got several things working against him. Including faster horses to his inside. Still, he's in with a chance.
$2 Win - 19 - Noble Indy. Of all the long shot runners with a chance I can make the strongest case for him.
$2 WPS ($6 Total) - 4 - Flameaway. It's hard for me to leave this horse totally out.
$1 Supr. ($32 total)- 7 with 5-6-14 with 5-6-14-18- with 4-6-14-16-18
$75 Total Investment.
Clearly I'm keying on Justify as my favorite but I'm trying to go fairly broad at the bottom of the card. I think Audible is 2nd best but I give him trip consideration to third. After that it's wide open. I'm probably too chalky at the top but as I've said throughout, this is a TOUGH super to figure out.
Good luck however you play.
Thursday, May 3, 2018
Kentucky Oaks 2018: Notes on the Runners and Wagers
Unlike the Kentucky Derby, the Kentucky Oaks appears, on paper, to be a match race between two really good Fillies. Midnight Bisou and Monomoy Girl. But I have a couple of other horses that I think might be able to upset the apple cart and who might come in at a price. Let's look at the contenders....
1. Sassy Sienna (15-1): Ridden by veteran jock Gary Stevens this filly has a speed problem. A big speed problem in that her highest speed rating is a full 11 points behind the favorite and she obtained that three races ago, on a mile run. The post draw in the Oaks is not as big of a deal as in the Derby due to the smaller field but the inside is still a tough place to do business. This stalker/pacer might have trouble due to a lack of true tactical speed.
2. Coach Rocks (12-1): The horse that I think will come into this race as the "sharp" horse only has on Stakes race to her resume (the Grade II Gulfstream Park Oaks) but she did score an impressive closing win over Take Charge Paula, who was highly regarded going in, and will get her chance to rematch. Normally I fade the "sharp" horses in races but her odds might just be long enough to take a stab.
3. Classy Act (15-1): Came in a close second to Monomoy Girl in the Rachel Alexandra at Fair Grounds two starts ago but failed to replicate that in the Fair Grounds Oaks. This is a speed horse who should have a lot to say about the pace of this race but who I believe will falter at the distance. Like Firenze Fire on the male side I would love to see Classy Act become a miler and see what happens later in her career.
4. Chocolate Martini (12-1): Since being claimed on Feb 2nd this horse has gone win, win with two outstanding closing finishes in an Optional Claimer and the aforementioned Fair Ground Oaks. Oh, and neither of those races featured "perfect trips". IF the pace goes crazy (a possibility) then Chocolate Martini could be the horse that sweeps up the crumbs. Will definitely be a factor in my wagers.
5. Wonder Gadot (20-1): This filly has been heavily raced and her last race, a loss by a nose to Sassy Sienna was her best. The problem again is speed. WG is a pacer who doesn't appear to have enough tactical speed to truly compete Still, might be a factor in my exotics near the bottom.
6. Kelly's Humor (30-1): No speed, and a poor history against horses of this caliber make for a tough ask. This horse would need to improve exponentially to be competitive. Her only stakes win is an overnight and her last competition against similar in this race was a 10th place finish....at Churchill Downs. Yeesh.
7. Rayya (15-1): The best argument that people are making for this filly is that she finished 2nd to Mendelssohn. The problem is that she finished 2nd to Mendelssohn by 18 lengths. Of all her races the UAE Oaks win was the best but I think she's going to find herself up against it here.
8. Heavenhasmynikki (30-1): Normally, I would take a look a this horse, who's never won a stakes race but never finished lower than 4th and relegate her to a spot in the back of my exotics just in case. But then I saw the jockey. Calvin Borel, or Bo-Rail, the jockey who's taken several horses at Churchill and ran them along the inside rail to victory. She's been off for two months which could be a good thing. This is my long shot play.
9. Take Charge Paula (15-1): In my opinion Take Charge Paula is the best of the "other" horses in this race that aren't the two favorites. She's a pacing horse that has flashed the speed to keep up with the big two and has an outside chance of winning. Yes, the's come in 2nd recently but she did reel off three straight stakes wins (two were overnights) including a pretty good win over My Miss Lilly.
10. Midnight Bisou (5-2): The 2nd most decorated horse in this field although I would argue that strength of competition is a slight concern. Still, this horse has improved in every start since the first one and if that trend continues she should be rumbling down the stretch to challenge for the win.
11. My Miss Lilly (10-1): After a huge jump in performance in the Gazelle My Miss Lilly is, to me, the most difficult horse in this race to handicap. Was the Gazelle an aberration or was it a sign that Mark Hennig has her firing on all cylinders? I'm always leery about a horse's next race after a jump like that. How much did it take out of her?
12. Patrona Margarita (30-1): Her best win is over Kelly's Humor, but against other horses in this race she finished far behind. I don't see the tactical speed here to make a deep run unless there's a speed duel in front of her and she gets the trip to claw up ground. Her biggest problem is that I think there's a better closing option in this race with Chocolate Martini.
13. Eskimo Kisses (15-1): Another late charger that's going to have to hope for a speed duel and that she is the one to pick up the crumbs. This is a horse that I can see coming in 3rd or 4th with no problem, but 1st or 2nd might be a stretch.
14. Monomoy Girl. (2/1): A worthy 2-1 M/L favorite you could see a situation where Monomoy Girl jumps out to the front of this race and never looks back. My feeling is she's going to go off at somewhere around 7/5 or 6/5 so the smart play is going to be to be to bet against her and if you get beaten by a favorite so what.
My bets:
$10 Win - 10 - Midnight Bisou - Ideally I'll be able to get around 4-1 at post time.
$5 Win - 4 - Chocolate Martini - Hoping for a price here.
$2 WPS ($6 total) - 8 - Heavenhasmynikki - I've lost too many times to a Borel long shot at Churchill
$2 - Exacta Box -10/14. Box the two favorites in case it's a match race.
$2 Oaks/Derby DD - 14 Monomoy Girl & 10 Midnight Bisou with 7 Justify & 5 Audible
This double is fairly cheap and gives me the top two choices in both races.
$25 Total investment.
Good luck however you play.
1. Sassy Sienna (15-1): Ridden by veteran jock Gary Stevens this filly has a speed problem. A big speed problem in that her highest speed rating is a full 11 points behind the favorite and she obtained that three races ago, on a mile run. The post draw in the Oaks is not as big of a deal as in the Derby due to the smaller field but the inside is still a tough place to do business. This stalker/pacer might have trouble due to a lack of true tactical speed.
2. Coach Rocks (12-1): The horse that I think will come into this race as the "sharp" horse only has on Stakes race to her resume (the Grade II Gulfstream Park Oaks) but she did score an impressive closing win over Take Charge Paula, who was highly regarded going in, and will get her chance to rematch. Normally I fade the "sharp" horses in races but her odds might just be long enough to take a stab.
3. Classy Act (15-1): Came in a close second to Monomoy Girl in the Rachel Alexandra at Fair Grounds two starts ago but failed to replicate that in the Fair Grounds Oaks. This is a speed horse who should have a lot to say about the pace of this race but who I believe will falter at the distance. Like Firenze Fire on the male side I would love to see Classy Act become a miler and see what happens later in her career.
4. Chocolate Martini (12-1): Since being claimed on Feb 2nd this horse has gone win, win with two outstanding closing finishes in an Optional Claimer and the aforementioned Fair Ground Oaks. Oh, and neither of those races featured "perfect trips". IF the pace goes crazy (a possibility) then Chocolate Martini could be the horse that sweeps up the crumbs. Will definitely be a factor in my wagers.
5. Wonder Gadot (20-1): This filly has been heavily raced and her last race, a loss by a nose to Sassy Sienna was her best. The problem again is speed. WG is a pacer who doesn't appear to have enough tactical speed to truly compete Still, might be a factor in my exotics near the bottom.
6. Kelly's Humor (30-1): No speed, and a poor history against horses of this caliber make for a tough ask. This horse would need to improve exponentially to be competitive. Her only stakes win is an overnight and her last competition against similar in this race was a 10th place finish....at Churchill Downs. Yeesh.
7. Rayya (15-1): The best argument that people are making for this filly is that she finished 2nd to Mendelssohn. The problem is that she finished 2nd to Mendelssohn by 18 lengths. Of all her races the UAE Oaks win was the best but I think she's going to find herself up against it here.
8. Heavenhasmynikki (30-1): Normally, I would take a look a this horse, who's never won a stakes race but never finished lower than 4th and relegate her to a spot in the back of my exotics just in case. But then I saw the jockey. Calvin Borel, or Bo-Rail, the jockey who's taken several horses at Churchill and ran them along the inside rail to victory. She's been off for two months which could be a good thing. This is my long shot play.
9. Take Charge Paula (15-1): In my opinion Take Charge Paula is the best of the "other" horses in this race that aren't the two favorites. She's a pacing horse that has flashed the speed to keep up with the big two and has an outside chance of winning. Yes, the's come in 2nd recently but she did reel off three straight stakes wins (two were overnights) including a pretty good win over My Miss Lilly.
10. Midnight Bisou (5-2): The 2nd most decorated horse in this field although I would argue that strength of competition is a slight concern. Still, this horse has improved in every start since the first one and if that trend continues she should be rumbling down the stretch to challenge for the win.
11. My Miss Lilly (10-1): After a huge jump in performance in the Gazelle My Miss Lilly is, to me, the most difficult horse in this race to handicap. Was the Gazelle an aberration or was it a sign that Mark Hennig has her firing on all cylinders? I'm always leery about a horse's next race after a jump like that. How much did it take out of her?
12. Patrona Margarita (30-1): Her best win is over Kelly's Humor, but against other horses in this race she finished far behind. I don't see the tactical speed here to make a deep run unless there's a speed duel in front of her and she gets the trip to claw up ground. Her biggest problem is that I think there's a better closing option in this race with Chocolate Martini.
13. Eskimo Kisses (15-1): Another late charger that's going to have to hope for a speed duel and that she is the one to pick up the crumbs. This is a horse that I can see coming in 3rd or 4th with no problem, but 1st or 2nd might be a stretch.
14. Monomoy Girl. (2/1): A worthy 2-1 M/L favorite you could see a situation where Monomoy Girl jumps out to the front of this race and never looks back. My feeling is she's going to go off at somewhere around 7/5 or 6/5 so the smart play is going to be to be to bet against her and if you get beaten by a favorite so what.
My bets:
$10 Win - 10 - Midnight Bisou - Ideally I'll be able to get around 4-1 at post time.
$5 Win - 4 - Chocolate Martini - Hoping for a price here.
$2 WPS ($6 total) - 8 - Heavenhasmynikki - I've lost too many times to a Borel long shot at Churchill
$2 - Exacta Box -10/14. Box the two favorites in case it's a match race.
$2 Oaks/Derby DD - 14 Monomoy Girl & 10 Midnight Bisou with 7 Justify & 5 Audible
This double is fairly cheap and gives me the top two choices in both races.
$25 Total investment.
Good luck however you play.
Tuesday, May 1, 2018
Finally: Some Las Vegas 2018 NFL Win Totals
After noting how the offshore books see it we finally are starting to get some NFL win totals from the Vegas books.
As I figured, they're not all that different from 5Dimes.
As I figured, they're not all that different from 5Dimes.
| CG Technologies | ||||||||
| American Football Conference | National Football Conference | |||||||
| East | Projection | East | Projection | |||||
| New England | 12 | Philadelphia | 10.5 | |||||
| Miami | 7 | Dallas | 9 | |||||
| Buffalo | 6.5 | Washington | 7 | |||||
| New York Jets | 5 | New York Giants | 6.5 | |||||
| North | North | |||||||
| Pittsburgh | 10.5 | Green Bay | 10 | |||||
| Baltimore | 8.5 | Minnesota | 9.5 | |||||
| Cincinnati | 7 | Detroit | 8 | |||||
| Cleveland | 4.5 | Chicago | 6.5 | |||||
| South | South | |||||||
| Jacksonville | 8.5 | New Orleans | 9.5 | |||||
| Houston | 8.5 | Atlanta | 9.5 | |||||
| Tennessee | 8 | Carolina | 9 | |||||
| Indianapolis Colts | 6 | Tampa Bay | 6.5 | |||||
| West | West | |||||||
| Kansas City | 8.5 | Los Angeles Rams | 9.5 | |||||
| Los Angeles Chargers | 8 | San Francisco | 8.5 | |||||
| Oakland | 8.5 | Seattle | 9 | |||||
| Denver | 7 | Arizona | 6.5 | |||||
| WestGate Superbook | ||||||||
| American Football Conference | National Football Conference | |||||||
| East | Projection | East | Projection | |||||
| New England | 11 | Philadelphia | 10.5 | |||||
| Miami | 6 | Dallas | 8.5 | |||||
| Buffalo | 6.5 | Washington | 7 | |||||
| New York Jets | 6 | New York Giants | 6.5 | |||||
| North | North | |||||||
| Pittsburgh | 10.5 | Green Bay | 10 | |||||
| Baltimore | 8 | Minnesota | 10 | |||||
| Cincinnati | 7 | Detroit | 8 | |||||
| Cleveland | 5.5 | Chicago | 6.5 | |||||
| South | South | |||||||
| Jacksonville | 9 | New Orleans | 9.5 | |||||
| Houston | 8.5 | Atlanta | 9 | |||||
| Tennessee | 8 | Carolina | 9 | |||||
| Indianapolis Colts | 6.5 | Tampa Bay | 6.5 | |||||
| West | West | |||||||
| Kansas City | 8.5 | Los Angeles Rams | 9.5 | |||||
| Los Angeles Chargers | 9 | San Francisco | 9 | |||||
| Oakland | 8 | Seattle | 8 | |||||
| Denver | 7 | Arizona | 5.5 | |||||
| South Point | |||||||
| American Football Conference | National Football Conference | ||||||
| East | Projection | East | Projection | ||||
| New England | 11.5 | Philadelphia | 10 | ||||
| Miami | 6 | Dallas | 8.5 | ||||
| Buffalo | 7.5 | Washington | 7 | ||||
| New York Jets | 6 | New York Giants | 6.5 | ||||
| North | North | ||||||
| Pittsburgh | 10.5 | Green Bay | 10 | ||||
| Baltimore | 8 | Minnesota | 9.5 | ||||
| Cincinnati | 7 | Detroit | 7.5 | ||||
| Cleveland | 5.5 | Chicago | 6.5 | ||||
| South | South | ||||||
| Jacksonville | 9 | New Orleans | 9.5 | ||||
| Houston | 9 | Atlanta | 9.5 | ||||
| Tennessee | 8 | Carolina | 9 | ||||
| Indianapolis Colts | 6.5 | Tampa Bay | 6.5 | ||||
| West | West | ||||||
| Kansas City | 8 | Los Angeles Rams | 10 | ||||
| Los Angeles Chargers | 9.5 | San Francisco | 8.5 | ||||
| Oakland | 8 | Seattle | 7.5 | ||||
| Denver | 7.5 | Arizona | 6 | ||||
I hear that Golden Nugget has posted lines but I haven't found them online as of yet. As for the rest (MGM, Caesar's William Hill, Wynn) I'm hearing that the lines won't be publicly available until JULY. I even hear that ticket writers at those books are referring players to other books to make bets until them.
Odd.
Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks: Post Draws and Morning Line Odds.
They just finished up the post draw for the Kentucky Derby and here are the post positions, jockeys, and morning line odds for both the Derby, and the Kentucky Oaks.
Kentucky Oaks:
Kentucky Oaks:
| Post | Horse | Jockey | Odds | ||
| 1 | Sassy Sienna | G. Stevens | 15-1 | ||
| 2 | Coach Rocks | L. Saez | 12-1 | ||
| 3 | Classy Act | B. Hernandez Jr. | 15-1 | ||
| 4 | Chocolate Martini | J. Castellano | 12-1 | ||
| 5 | Wonder Gadot | J. Velasquez | 20-1 | ||
| 6 | Kelly's Humor | I. Ortiz | 30-1 | ||
| 7 | Rayya | D. Van Dyke | 15-1 | ||
| 8 | Heavenhasmynikki | C. Borel | 30-1 | ||
| 9 | Tale Charge Paula | J. Ortiz | 15-1 | ||
| 10 | Midnight Bisou | M. Smith | 5-2 | ||
| 11 | My Miss Lilly | J. Bravo | 10-1 | ||
| 12 | Patrona Margarita | R. Santana Jr. | 30-1 | ||
| 13 | Eskimo Kisses | C. Lanerie | 15-1 | ||
| 14 | Monomoy Girl | F. Geroux | 2-1 |
Analysis: Monomoy Girl, the morning line favorite, draws the outside post, which is not as much of a deterrent to winning in the Oaks as it is the Derby. The big winner here was Midnight Bisou, the 2nd choice, who draws post 10. Possible long shot play: 8 Heavenhasmynikki If you don't know the history of Calvin Borel at Churchill Downs you should. He didn't get the nickname Calvin Bo-Rail for nothing. He's been retired so it's interesting that he's come back here. You should get a hell of a price.
Kentucky Derby:
| Post | Horse | Jockey | Odds | |||
| 1 | Firenze Fire | P. Lopez | 50-1 | |||
| 2 | Free Drop Billy | R. Albarado | 30-1 | |||
| 3 | Promises Fulfilled | C. Lanerie | 30-1 | |||
| 4 | Flameaway | J. Lezcano | 30-1 | |||
| 5 | Audible | J. Casellano | 8-1 | |||
| 6 | Good Magic | J. Ortiz | 12-1 | |||
| 7 | Justify | M. Smith | 3-1 | |||
| 8 | Lone Sailer | J. Graham | 50-1 | |||
| 9 | Hofburg | I. Ortiz | 20-1 | |||
| 10 | My Boy Jack | K. Desormeaux | 30-1 | |||
| 11 | Bolt D'Oro | V. Espinoza | 8-1 | |||
| 12 | Enticed | J. Alvarado | 30-1 | |||
| 13 | Bravaso | L. Contreras | 50-1 | |||
| 14 | Mendelssohn | R. Moore | 5-1 | |||
| 15 | Instilled Regard | D. Van Dyke | 50-1 | |||
| 16 | Magnum Moon | L. Saez | 6-1 | |||
| 17 | Solomini | F. Prat | 30-1 | |||
| 18 | Vino Rosso | J. Velazquez | 12-1 | |||
| 19 | Noble Indy | F. Geroux | 30-1 | |||
| 20 | Combatant | R. Santana | 50-1 | |||
| AE -21 | Blended Citizen | K. Frey | 50-1 |
Analysis: Brutal draw for Todd Pletcher, who gets 16-18 and whose horses will have some work to do. the M/L favorite, Justify, gets a dream draw at 7, just outside of Audible who is the crowd favorite coming in. Mendelssohn (2nd choice M/L) grabs the 14th spot which is OK, but means that he's going to have ride issues later in the race. The suspected "sharp" horse, Hofburg, gets a great draw at post #9. Blended Citizen only gets in if one of the top 20 drop out.
I'll be back later with betting options, predictions.
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