On Video Poker: "Full Pay" Tables and why you're probably wasting your time looking for them.

"Full Pay"

For a professional, or serious even, video poker player this is the Holy Grail of machines. One with a pay table that signifies you're somewhere in the range of a 99% to even over 100% payback. Here's what they look like for certain games....

9/6 Jacks or Better

8/5 Bonus Poker

9/6 Bonus Deluxe

10/7 Double Bonus Poker

10/6 Double Double Bonus Poker

9/7 Triple Double Bonus Poker

There are other games out there for sure, even some games, such as Deuces Wild, that offer full pay variants, but the one's above are what I would consider to be the most "popular" games that you can typically find across a broad spectrum of casinos/machines, including both bar top (my favorite) and floor machines.

Before we go any further here I want to get one thing clear (a thing that's going to be missed by almost everyone reading this blog. But, here we go.....

I LOVE FULL PAY MACHINES. I do, and I search them out wherever I can find them.  As someone who spends 95% of time in a casino sitting in front of a video poker machine pay-tables are very, very, extremely important to me.

But they might not be to you, and let me explain why.

1. "Full Pay" means over the life of the machine. It does not mean that you're going to lose less money in any one given session. Because of this, if you're playing many long sessions over the course of a casino trip (i.e. like me) then the more you play the more the pay table will come into effect. Because the more hands you see etc.  But let's say you only go to a casino once or twice per year, usually play Black Jack and only play VP (Video Poker) for an hour or so when you're sitting at the bar having drinks. In all honesty your wins and losses are not going to come from the pay table, but from whether or not you hit any "premium hands" (i.e. 4 of a kind or better) during the limited time that you are playing.

2. "Full Pay" comes with the caveat that perfect strategy must be employed. I'm not sure about others, but I will freely admit that I DO NOT, EVER play with absolutely perfect strategy. I believe that I play with ADVANCED strategy, but either due to fatigue, a vodka soda (with lime) or two or the simple fact that I am a human being and therefore make mistakes, I will never attain perfection. IMO anyone who claims this is a liar. But there's also basic and advanced strategy as well. To gain a benefit out of any pay table my feeling is that you AT LEAT have to have a pretty solid mastery of the intermediate strategy of the game. I'm not suggesting that you play intermediate perfect and never make a mistake, but an overwhelming majority of the time (say around 95%) you are making the correct play as the strategy allows.  Even this type of play on basic strategy will help some, but I believe that intermediate strategy is the cut-off for a perceptible difference in results.

3. Even WITH perfect strategy, you're playing a negative expectation game. Yes, there are a few caveats to this: Full Pay Double Bonus Poker and Double Double Bonus Poker actually have theoretical returns above 100%, and you could even find some of the other games bumped up above that for a promotion, and there are times when a progressive gets high enough that the TR (Theoretical Return) is drug over 100% but these are the exception not the rule, and you're unlikely to find them many places in the wild. The further you deviate from perfect strategy however the higher the house edge is getting. My point is that without strategy VP can be one of the worst games in the casino.

4. You're likely spending most of your bankroll elsewhere. From that perspective video poker is not your game. You might like to play it and you might hit big from time to time, but overall you'd be better served mastering the strategies of the games you like to play (IF, that is, they have a strategy that is complex enough to be mastered). That said, it doesn't take too long to gain a working understanding of basic strategy, and even knowing that will help you to play better (and get better hands) in the long-term. So even if you only play a little don't discount learning some strategy. But save your real work for learning Black Jack strategy, or card counting if that's your thing.

Listen, I'm not suggesting that you run out and go find the worst pay tables that you can and sit down on those machines because well, who cares?  Not at all. What I am saying is that, if you're a casual VP players, don't let the quest for finding the "best" pay table ruin your day. Yes, if you find two games of DDB (Double Double Bonus) and one is 9/5* and one is 8/5, and they're both open and right next to each other then, certainly, you're not real smart if you pick the 8/5 game all other things being equal. Be aware, but don't obsess over it.

On the Las Vegas Strip the harsh reality is that there are very few "good" VP pay tables and you're probably going to be relegated to playing something foul such as 6/5 BP (Bonus Poker) or 7/5 DDB at the quarter level. For me, these games are why I very, very rarely play VP on the Strip but, for you? If you're sitting with friends and having a good time? You should probably not feel too bad about just lining them up and banging away.

After all, the BEST pay table is a winning pay table, and that's the machine on which you actually get premium quads**, straight flushes or the Royal Flush.

Final reminder: Gambling is a cost of entertainment. Even if you learn advanced strategy and play as near perfect as you can on the best pay tables every time, you're still going to have more losing sessions than winning ones.

This is doubly true for a recreational player. Have fun, try and hit some premium hands and just generally consider VP to be an entertainment option for you.  Don't waste your time running around a casino looking for "the best pay table" because 1. This could take some time and you don't want to spend your time working on vacation, and 2. It's probably not going to do you much good even if you do find it.  At the most, check all of the games on one machine and find the best one and play it. But the "best" machine is the winning machine, and don't forget that the winning machine is the one on which you hit premium hands.

Unfortunately they've yet to develop a (legal) system for finding those.

*A pay table is rated by the value placed on a single unit bet on the full house and the flush.  So, if the Full house pay tables shows a 9 and the Flush a 5 then the game is 9/5. This is true for all "non-wild" games. Once you learn this it's pretty easy to determine the pay table and then, you can go to many sites and see just how much of the house edge the variant you are playing is adding to the house edge. 

**Premium Quads are defined here as being quad combinations that pay higher than the "base" payout for 4OAK (4 of a kind).  Some examples of this would be 4-2s, 3s, 4s (200 credits) in Bonus Poker where 4 5-Ks only pays 150 or 4 Aces w/any Ace,2,3,4 (2000 credits) in DDB where 4 5s-Ks pays out 250 credits.  There are many more examples of this in many games, just look at the pay table and look for any 4 of a kind combo that pays higher than the base (usually 5s-Ks but not always)

Lose Weight, Get Healthy, Age Better, Live Longer.

As I type this I'm tipping the scale at 278.  Getting real close to the weight where tipping Guam might be an option. I've got Type 2 diabetes, hypertension, and a fatty liver.  I drink too much, I eat too many bad foods, I'm on a dozen or so pills and supplements to keep various maladies under control.

In short, I'm a damned mess. Heavier than I've ever been, lacking anything resembling athleticism, and borderline self-aware depressed.

Were this social media the responses would be limited to something along the lines of "well do something about it you fat f*ck."  Either that or something about how the Capitalist system under which America operates has led me to poor choices regarding my health, or the evils of the pharmaceutical industry, whichever.

But this is a long-form blog. Something that I've neglected for way too long. A place where I can type the musings that few read and even fewer give two-shits about.  In short: this is my space.

Which is why I've decided to bring this back. (after not really shutting it down, but just taking an unplanned pause for a bit.)

You see, Mrs. TPM and I have decided to launch ourselves into DDPYoga the Yoga without the mysticism  project by former WWE and WCW wrestler Diamond Dallas Paige.

I've never done Yoga. Never even contemplated it really. Not that I have anything against it, it's just that....well, I don't think I have Chakras. I'm not what you would call an introspective type, and I'm certainly not going to get in tune with my chi, or whatever they call it. My aura is a black hole.

So you're not going to see a lot of navel-gazing on here and very little 'coming to terms' with my childhood, or mistakes I've made in the past, or the fact that I'm lazy (which is why I'm fat FWIW) instead I'm just going to discuss the journey. No teary-eyed videos from me.  

Don't get me wrong, I do cry, but it's usually after one of my dogs has 'hit the target' when they're excited if you get my drift.

So my first reaction after our first day of Yoga?

Shit I'm sore. Last night, after doing 50 minutes of the "12 basic moves" I was sweating like a whore in church, was shaking due to activating muscles that might not have been worked since my 20's, and then I slept like the dead.

And now I'm sore.

But, despite not being emotional, I do believe in accountability. And I believe the best way to be accountable is to be publically accountable so here it goes.

Goals:

Lose 78 lbs in one year.  That would put me at 200lbs. Which would probably mean that my gut is significantly shrank and many of my health issues are significantly diminished. That's 6.5 lbs per month, which is very doable. Hell, I've seen videos where people are losing 10ish lbs per week.

Be able to lift my ankle above my head. Flexibility is key in life, and Yoga really helps with that.  Currently I cannot stand on one leg and lift the other past parallel (without crashing to the ground) so I want to be able to do that.

Be able to touch my toes. Both from the standing, and sitting positions with my legs straight.

Be able to start lifting weights again. Which means to strengthen my core and shoulders to the point that I'm not in constant pain.

Run a 5K. Which means that I have to strengthen my knees and ankles, which are now sadly weak.

Will I succeed at this?  Who knows? I think I will because I've got the best part of me (my wife) working with me on her own goals. And I've got a reason to do it as well, I'm only a little over a year away from 50, and if I keep up the pace I'm on I'm closer to my ultimate time of passing than I have years to live.

Staying alive is a pretty powerful motivator.

Creating the Narrative for the New USA.

"We have always been at war with Eurasia"

The desire to rewrite history to fit ones chosen narratives is as old as humanity itself. If you don't think the first cave dwellers weren't exaggerating the size of the animals on the cave walls they supposedly slayed you haven't been paying attention to humanity.

Today in America is no different. Media outlets and politicians are the best at this. Take, for example, the NY Times 1619 project, a tome so flawed, so fundamentally out of focus with historical reality that the publication ultimately was forced to abandon all of its central tomes and basically try and white wash its entire original purpose from existence.

It's too late though, the damage is done. Because no one notices corrections or retractions, they just focus in on the original narrative not matter how flimsy or bizarre the main idea is.

This is the problem the GOP faces right now. The choice, of some of their members, to follow the Bronzed Ego down his fever dream of #StopTheSteal they ran into the harsh light of reality displaying some (not all) of Trumps followers as 100% batshit crazy. Once they realized this, and many recanted their support, the damage was already done. The narrative set so to speak.

This could possibly diminish the GOP for a generation in America. Think California but with an unlimited budget and power to inflict harm. The belief, on this blog, was not that Donald Trump would destroy America (It takes more than the ego and bloviations of one man to topple a free society with laws and structure), but that he might all but destroy the GOP and leave the country looking at the very real possibility of facing the abyss of single-party rule.

And, to be clear about this, there is very little separating single-party, monolithic rule from pure authoritarianism. Certainly this is the case if the courts have decided to sit on the sidelines and just observe. This gives those whose goal it is to tear down the existing order pretty much a blank check to do so.

The belief here at TPM headquarters is that it will be fascinating to watch America and China spiral closer to one another (albeit from different directions) as authoritarian ruled, crony capitalist economic powers.

The media will be more than happy to keep this division alive as they will continue to focus on both the mis-deeds of Trump (even long after he is gone) and any instance where a member of the GOP might have agreed with him on anything, even something that made sense. (and, even though Trump himself was a personal disaster, not all of his policies were. It's important to separate the two) Part of the reason for this is that the media is lazy, and an even larger part of it is because the media does not particularly like the GOP.

There was a great scene is the 80's movie "Moon Over Parador" that comes to mind.

This was a harmless little Richard Dreyfus vehicle that took place in an authoritarian country that ostensibly elected it's leader through free and fair elections. The problem was the ruler of the land was on the ticket for both parties. Near the beginning of the movie two peasants are looking at two campaign posters, one with a red background, one with a blue background, both with the picture of the President on them.

"Who are you going to vote for? Red or Blue?"

"What does it matter?"

Without a meaningful, serious, opposition party the real elections are going to occur in the Democratic Primaries. Who is selected in those races will ultimately determine the direction of the country. If you don't think this is possible, look at California on the Left and Texas (for now) on the Right.

"Who are you going to vote for? Democrat or Democrat?"

"What does it matter?" 

The Attack on the Holy Temple Will NOT go Unpunished.

 Yesterday was ridiculous. There is no other word for it.

If you've not paid attention, and I would not blame you if you didn't, yesterday possibly the most motley group of protestors ever 'stormed' the US Capitol with the sole intent of disrupting the Congressional certification of the Electoral College vote for the 2020 US Presidential election.

It should come as no surprise that the ruling class is viewing this as a Holy War. Upon reconvening every Representative or Senator was afforded the chance to record themselves a future campaign ad where they rallied around the iron tree of Democracy and were allowed to denounce the protestors in one form or another. Many (Democrats) called for Trump to be impeached, many (Republicans and Democrats) denounced this 'unprecedented' attack on Democracy and all but stripped the humanity away from the protestors, suggesting that they might be willing to support stripping away their rights as well.

Of course, all of this was done after they had emerged from their "secure locations' some of them remaining cowering in lock down hours after the Capitol had been cleared.  "Fighters" for the little man indeed.

Sen. Chuck Schumer (D - The village that's missing it's idiot) took the booby prize however when he compared this dust-up with Pear Harbor.  I shit you not.

As is custom these days, social media erupted. On the Left there was rending of garments and gnashing of teeth, as well as, not surprisingly, a surprising amount of blood lust as many called for pain and death for the rioters. On the Right there was a desperate search for equivalence and hypocrisy, as people desperately searched past tweets of Ilhan Omar, AOC and others for Tweets in support of BLM and Antifa (and they found them).

Reactions went from falling on the fainting couch and rending garments, to wishing pain and death on all of the protestors, even IF they did not partake in the storming of the Temple walls. There were many calls for Trump to be impeached or removed from office via the 25th Amendment. Twitter, of which I am a member, fell rapidly into a sewer of bad takes, name-calling and otherwise intelligent people losing their damn minds.  I've taken a break from the platform for a few days to allow these spleens to fully vent before I return.

If you're looking for a trend here, it's this: The protestors who entered the Capitol and scared a bunch of politicians were not simple political protestors taking things too far. No, while that may seem what it is you're viewing this through the wrong lens. What this was, to the ruling class, was a sullying of the Holy See of America and an attack on the Religious Order to which they worship.

In short, the invaders were attacking the House of God. This was sacrilege. 

And the punishment for it should be Biblical.

This is why the Democrats are suddenly the DC Police best friends, despite spending the entire year demanding they be "defunded". This is why Republicans have fled from Donald Trump despite initially backing him and showing willingness to dispute the Electoral count to bolster their own political aims.

From that perspective this is a very simple matrix.

Joe Biden is God.

The Democrats in Government are his Angels.

Donald Trump is the Devil.

His supporters are the Demons.

The ruling class views this (falsely) to be American Armageddon. 

In reality, we are not witnessing the fall of Babylon at this moment, but it could not be too far away if our ruling class is not up to the job.  Early returns from Biden ("America is better than this") and Obama (America needs to come together in support of Biden and his policies) are not promising.

Happy New Year's Houston: No Reason to pay any attention to the news, here's ALL you need to know in 2021

 As you wake up this morning, either hungover or no, and celebrate the death of 2020 and new life in 2021. Here's everything that is going to happen to your fair city (and region) in 2021.  The below are absolutely guaranteed to happen with a margin of error of 100%.

January: Disgusted with the CDC guidance for the COVID-19 vaccine, Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo discards it in the name of 'economic justice' and declares that anyone within the county making more than $60,000 per year immediately will be placed in distribution group 1000Z which means that you will receive your vaccination just after the animals in the Houston Zoo.

February: Sylvester Turner, not willing to give up the position of Mayor that he has dreamed about since he was a child in Acres Homes, ram-rods through a City Ordinance allowing him to bypass term limits and remain Mayor for Life, or until he finally satisfies all of his political patrons financially.

March: Houston firefighters are told that they will get the vaccine eventually or, once they come back to the bargaining table and accept Turner's changes to their pensions allowing the HPD to continue to have Most Favored Department status forever.

April: HPD Commissioner Art Acevedo remains coy regarding his political future still suggesting that he's "looking for the right opportunity" to run for higher office. In reality he's hoping to let memories of his HPD mismanagement fade.

May: The Houston Chronicle Editorial Board writes a positive editorial on Biden's first 100 days in Office, continues to run it every week until Biden is eventually removed from office, in which case they just change all instances of "Biden" to "Harris" in the copy.  No one notices this because no one pays attention to them any longer.

June: Houston firefighters and zoo animals finally begin receiving vaccines for COVID-19. The County give Judge Lina Hildago an "Excellence in Leadership" award that's really a recycled participation trophy from a youth soccer league with tape over the face plate and the new information written in permanent marker.

July: Erica Greider hears about Lina's award from Miya Shay at a dinner party in Asia Town and pens a column terming Lina's Excellence in Leadership a "Major Award". No one notices because no one pays any serious attention to her any longer, except for waiting for her next Twitter meltdown.

August: The Federal Government finally releases vaccine to private healthcare entities thus thwarting Judge Lina Hidalgo's attempt to keep it from certain groups indefinitely. In a hastily called press conference she bemoans her "lack of authority" to prevent anything she does not like from happening.

September: A major milestone is hit as most Houstonians have now received the COVID-19 vaccine and new cases are as close to zero as makes no difference. Governor Abbott removes all restrictions, Turner and Judge Lina Hidalgo hold a hastily called press conference calling this decision irresponsible.

October:  Trick or Treating, and anything fun, are banned in Harris County on penalty of permanent imprisonment. Due to bail reform the prison guards are getting bored.

November: Eating Turkey for Thanksgiving is also now punishable by a criminal offense, as is gathering with anyone outside of your immediate household for any reason. The reason for this is because private jail firms have threatened to sue the City and County for default on their contracts. COVID-19 cases in Harris County are still zero.

December: Santa Clause is named an "enemy of the County" due to his failure to pay property or sales taxes on all of those gifts he carries. The City of Houston wants to fine him "exactly the amount of the budget short fall for the next fiscal year.

January 2022: Under intense pressure from unions and other groups who have been out of a job all year Judge Lina Hidalgo FINALLY relents and lowers her COVID alert-level thingy to Orange.

Happy New Year everyone.

As we Prepare to Boot 2020 Into the Dustbin of History....It's Prediction Time.

 There is no other way to say this....2020 has been awful. 

From a global pandemic that was utterly mishandled by world governments to a United States response that was ham-fisted, inept in many areas and downright fraudulent in some, it's been a year of missed opportunities, dumb governance and, for too many, lost income and loved ones.

Normally, when I do these "prediction" posts, I try to keep it light and come up with ridiculous items that JUST border on the verge of being possible.  But this year I'm not feeling all that humorous, so I'm going to make some serious predictions at five different levels (National, Texas, Nevada, Houston, Las Vegas). Unlike previous years, these are things that I actually believe are going to happen within the Nation, the City and State where I currently reside, and the City and State that I like to visit frequently,

Since we're all anxious to put 2020 behind us, let's dive right in.

National Predictions:

1. Before the end of 2021, the movement to replace Biden as President will be well underway.

Like Biden or not, there is no doubt that the man is suffering from senility at this point in his life. It's been sad really to watch him get lost, confused, and be unable to answer even the simplest questions without visual (or audio) aids.

2. Regardless of who controls the Senate, the Democrats will be unable to deliver on many of the grand plans they have promised.

For one, they had control of Congress and the White House during Obama's first term, and what they provided the country was the fetid mess that is ObamaCare. Two, and the country are going to discover very quickly that all of the grand plans will not be accomplished through their "soak the rich" tax plans. There's just not enough money in the kitty to fund all that they are proposing.

3. The National response to COVID-19 under a Biden regime will be just as inept as it has been under the Trump Regime.

Grand pronouncements to the contrary, they're not going to be able to pull this off because they are going to rely on the government bureaucracy to pull it off and, as we've seen, that is a recipe for full-on disaster.

Predictions for the State of Nevada.

1. The budget situation is going to be dire. Sisolak will have no clue how to fix it.

The fact that Governor Gene Sisolak is not an effective executive is going to come into full relief, more than it already has, in 2021. He's incapable of suggesting the taxation of sacred cows (i.e. the mining industry), he's a man of no executive creativity and the people are going to see this as budgets get cut and the State sinks further into a fiscal abyss.

2. Nevada WILL get a lottery.

While I'm not entirely sure of the exact mechanizations in Nevada State Law for this (for example, does it require voter approval or no? Not sure) but I do predict that one of the first things attempted to try and bring in new revenue will be attempts to establish both multi-state progressive lotteries and those dreaded scratch-off cards.  Sub-prediction: The revenues gained "for the children" will be far less than projections.

Predictions for the City of Las Vegas:

1. It's going to be a ROUGH 2021

I don't see conventions coming back prior to 2022, and even then, some of these bigger events are in the processing of finding new homes, and cities willing to roll out the red carpet for them. Given the increasing costs of visiting the Strip companies, who are also employing people suffering from tough times, are going to start to look for other options.

2. One big casino operator is going to abandon Las Vegas.

The obvious answer is Sands, who is already exploring it, but I'd keep my eye on the new Caesars. As the Las Vegas Strip continues to remake itself into an overpriced bordello there's going to be less and less value there. The old saying was "gamblers still gonna gamble" but the Strip's problem is that they've abandoned the gambler.

Predictions for Texas:

1. The population bleed from the big cities will continue.

As the progressive, anti-business, ideologies continue to permeate the ruling classes of city governance people are going to continue to choose to move out and drive back in rather than living in an increasingly high-crime environment that boasts higher tax rates and fewer services.

2. No, Virginia, Texas is NOT going to approve sports betting in any form in 2021.

Texas will not expand gambling until the time that the State turns blue. No matter how much sense this one thing makes (casino gambling is a different matter altogether) it will not happen.

3. The newest "Blue Star" for the media is going to be Lina Hidalgo.

Harris County's grad-student County Judge is already receiving glowing profiles from the Texas Lock-Step Political Media, and even some National Media, despite the fact that she's not even really running the County (Rodney Ellis is running the county). She's going to get a hard push to challenge Abbott for Governor, or possibly Dan Patrick for Lt. Governor.

Predictions for Houston:

1. There will be a major flood in 2021.

The City will be 100% unprepared to deal with it.  For all of the talk, post Harvey, about "something, must be done!" The fact is little actually HAS been done. A lot of this is due to Judge Lina Hidalgo deciding to put everything back in the sausage making machine in the name of "social justice" (which is odd, because flood water knows nothing about this).

2. Houston will miss-out on the "tech boom" that's coming to Texas.

Yes, they welcomed HP, but that was outside of the city limits. Austin will receive most of the windfall from this, and Houston will be left behind with the city leadership wondering what the heck happened.

OK, that's where I'm going to leave it for now. I'm hoping that 2021 is the year where we all get the vaccine, it works, and we can get back to something resembling normal and place politics and government back in the background where they belong.

Happy New Year and good luck to all of you.