Wednesday, April 21, 2010

Wishful thinking?

(Ailing economy worries Texans, could hurt Perry, R.G. Ratcliffe, ChronBlog)
Vacant car lots, shuttered businesses and the grind of bad economic news is wearing down Texans' belief in a better tomorrow, according to a new survey of state voters, and that could be even worse news for Gov. Rick Perry.

The survey by the national political newsletter Rasmussen Reports found 46 percent of the state's voters believe the economy is getting worse. That's up from 35 percent in January who believed things are getting worse.
It could, but I have to wonder if the people who are voting for Perry would blame him for the economy anyway? In the article Dr. Cal Jillison seems to think not.

I also think it's a big mistake to separate Republican primary voters from the general electorate, just as it's a mistake to separate Democratic primary voters from the general electorate. They're all significant parts of the whole.

Bill White will do his best to try and tie the current economy to Perry's tenure. To the 20% of Texans that make up his base I predict he'll be 100% successful. Likewise Perry will be successful penning the slump on DC with 100% of his 20%. The question will be how the remaining 60% of the electorate feels. Given past voting history my early guess is that around 35% of them are going to side with Perry. Still, White's chances rely on things getting much, much worse.

That's something that's sure to burn the britches of the CCTT.

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