Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Election 2012 Predictions and other assorted stuff

Yes, I'm no longer a political blogger but, given that today is election day, I feel compelled by the blogger code to at least make some utterly worthless election day predictions. These are worth exactly what you paid for them so here we go.

President: I think Mitt Romney wins the popular vote in a squeaker, somewhere around 50.2 to 49.8 but Obama wins the Presidency by virtue of the electoral college.  271-267.  You can see my map here:  http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bseS

I also think that we won't know for sure who the winner is for quite some time because it will come down to Ohio, and their recount procedures will drag this out.

Texas Senate: Cruz in a landslide.  I'm not sure of the exact number, but Cruz will be closer to 60% than 50%.

US Senate: The Democrats retain the majority in the Senate with with somewhere around 52 Dem senators being elected.  I like the Real Clear Politics Senate Page for these races.

US House: I like the Republican's chances here to gain a seat or two. Again, I'm using the Real Clear Politics page as a guide.  Currently, 224 seats are either safe Repub or "lean Republican" with 33 toss ups.  I think the Repubs grab about 18-20 of those 33.

Texas Statewides: No shocker here: I'm predicting a sweep for Republicans.  There may come a time when Texas Democrats nominate and run a quality candidate for a State-wide office, but it won't be the election cycle.

Texas House: The Republicans will retain a large majority. Possibly even their super majority

Texas Senate: Not much movement in overall numbers, but a lot of new faces.

I don't predict any major upsets in these races.

Harris County:
      - Sheriff: Garcia wins fairly handily.
      - District Attorney: Anderson wins, again pretty handily.

I will be part of the under vote on both of these races.

     - County Attorney:  Ryan hangs on to win 52-48.  Not a fan of Talton but I'll hold my nose and vote for him.  Ryan has not been the "watchdog" that he's promised, nor has he distinguished himself much in this position.  The Dem's main argument for voting for him is that he's not Republican.  Meh.

      - Tax Assessor-Collector: Mike Sullivan should win but I think it will be close.  Ann Harris Bennett is not a good candidate.  Seems like a nice lady, but who knows. Of all my picks I could be 100% wrong on this one.  Sullivan is hit or miss with a lot of people, and doesn't do much to fire up the conservative base.  Watch the under vote here.

Metro Referendum: I don't see any way that this fails.  As a matter of fact, I think it passes handily with over 60% of the vote.

City of Houston Bonds: I see them all passing, and then much hue and cry coming from the resulting tax increases.

HISD Bonds:  I'm torn on this one, but at the end of the night I think they'll squeak out a win.  Of all the bond proposals these are the most specious.  Still, the Houston electorate has shown a willingness to back poorly designed bond packages provided they're packaged correctly.  The packaging on these, and the resulting PR campaigns by the appropriate groups, means something.

HCC Bonds: I think these pass fairly easily.  Even the Texas Conservative Review came out for them.

And finally:

Harris County Judges: With all of the attention paid to these by the Republican Party I think the (R) under vote is going to be pretty small.  I expect the Republicans to pick up a few seats, but the Dems will point to this as a "victory" as the night progresses relative to the rest of their Texas election slate.

And that's it.  So.......go out and vote.

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