Monday, April 28, 2014

NFL Draft buzz (and revised odds for the Texans)

This is one of many stories that I've seen suggesting the Texans are shopping the first pick in the draft. 

From the beginning, when I first handicapped the Texans likely pick, I stated that my preference would be, were I in charge, to trade the pick and stock-pile additional picks in the 2nd and 3rd round to plug the many holes appearing in the Texans 2-deep.

Of course, in his guessing game designed to generate page views of a mock draft series, John McClain of the Chronicle has disagreed, suggesting for his last three versions that the brain-trust on Kirby is ready and willing to select Jadeveon Clowney number one with no reservations.

However, I am starting to think that a trade is more and more likely, as more and more national news sources indicate that the Texans are shopping the pick.  Because of that, I'm updating my handicapping odds, but I'm still not putting "other" (which would mean a trade) as the favorite because I've yet to hear any strong buzzing regarding a trading partner.

Odds for potential Texans Round 1 draft picks:

2/1 - Jadeveon Clowney - I still think the DE from South Carolina is the slight favorite. He's the best player in this draft at any position. If the Texans don't trade the pick they should select Clowney and then turn JJ Watt loose on his motivation levels.

3/1 - Other (Pick traded) - This is starting to feel more and more likely. I think Coach O'Brien might have spent a little bit of time examining his current roster and is now fully understanding of how shallow the talent pool really is.

30/1 - Blake Bortles/Johnny Manziel - This might be a little high, but I don't get the feeling the Texans are very high on either of these two QB's

100/1 - Teddy Bridgewater - Amazingly, if he's still on the board, I think Bridgewater would be just about even money to be the Texans 1st pick in the 2nd round.

1000/1 - Don't trade pick/other - All of the Khalil Mack/Aaron Donald noise is just that. I don't put much stock in it.

On another note:  The Cowboys taking Manziel would just be Jerruh being Jerruh, which is why it could happen.

The Dallas Cowboys are a mess.  they have a ton of needs higher than QB that need to be addressed, which is why I could see Jerry Jones taking Manziel.  Jones loves media attention and there is no player in this draft that would provide more.

Of course, in typical Cowboys fashion there would be little on the front line to protect his QB which means they would be near the bottom of the league in sacks allowed. They also won't have much in the way of a pass rush, so they'll rank near the bottom of the league in sacks as well.  There is a certain symmetry to that one supposes.

You take too long NFL.

For years the NFL has been a marketing monster. As Sean Pendergast of the Houston Press recently noted, the timing of this year's draft has been one of their rare missteps. I realize the thinking in this case was "more is better" (chatter and coverage I mean) but what it's really done is lay bare just how silly the entire process really is.

Fortunately, by next Sunday, the draft will be a distant memory and we can start looking forward to the second round of OTAs.  Of course, my thought would be to have the draft before the first round of Spring workouts but that would just make too much sense.

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