Thursday, October 29, 2015

College Football: The Week 9 Five

Last week started off with promise, and then petered out.  I went 2-3 ATS and 5-0 SU which leaves me at 17-23 ATS (42.5%) and 30-10 SU (75%)  I keep waiting for the week when I figure it all out, which I'm starting to get concerned is not going to materialize this year.  Over the past 3 years I've started out slowly, but began to roll at around weeks 7 & 8.  For some reason this year I'm either getting good feelings about the wrong games, overvaluing the wrong teams, or am just having difficulties with my numbers.

Either way, this weekend is my birthday weekend so I'm hoping for a nice 4-1 or 5-0 ATS gift.

So here's to a happy birthday:
1. North Carolina (-2) @ Pitt: I'm not as much of a fan of the Tarheels as the public (I don't think they've beaten much) and I think Pitt's wins over Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech and a close loss to Iowa are the stronger games. I think Pitt gets them at home. Still, for the pick? Pitt to cover because I'm not brave enough to take the ML.
2. Oregon @ Arizona State (-2.5): Oregon is on the downswing, and Arizona State is wondering what the heck happened to a season that was so promising.  Granted, the loss to Texas aTm is looking worse and worse, but week 1 results are often misleading. Arizona State to cover at home against an Oregon team whose known more these days for their uniforms than good play.

3. Nebraska (-9) @ Purdue: My feeling on this game is pretty simple. Purdue is Godawful. Cornhuskers to cover.
4. South Carolina @ Texas aTm (-16): On my trip to Las Vegas two week ago, the Aggies were the only live, actual bet that I lost. The Gamecocks seemed to have come together absent Steve Spurrier and there are real problems in College Station.  I think the home field is enough to give the Aggies a win, but South Carolina to cover.

5. Colorado @ UCLA (-23): Two things going against the spread in my mind. 1.) Colorado is not THAT bad and 2.) UCLA is not THAT good.  I think UCLA wins, but only by a couple of touchdowns. Colorado to cover.

Other games that will be eating into my time:

Clemson (-10) @ NC State: The continuing trend by the national media of overrating a fairly pedestrian ACC continues to amaze me. I think Clemson covers here by a lot. Earlier in the season I wasn't a believer, I am now.

Georgia vs. Florida (-2.5): Ah the World's Biggest Outdoor Cocktail Party.  This is a must-watch game for me every year and it will be no different here.  Despite that, I think Florida is a much better team than the demoralized, injury depleted Bulldog bunch. Florida should win this by a couple of touchdowns IMO.

Oklahoma (-40) @ Kansas: I'm not sure if the oddsmakers could get this line high enough. Kansas is in shambles, OU is in run it up mode while they still think they have a chance at the CFP should they win out. Oklahoma should cover, but they're still not going to make it to the CFP because TCU and Baylor are better.

Oklahoma State (-2.5) @ Texas Tech: I've struggled a little bit this year figuring out which Tech team is going to show up.  No way I'd ever touch this game.  That said, Tech is a team that GOOD teams should beat, but might look ugly doing it. I think OSU will beat them, but look ugly doing it. Slight lean to OSU on the cover, much more interested in the over here.

Maryland @ Iowa(-10): I get favoring Iowa here, but by ten?  Iowa is a team that has been winning close. I think they win close here but the Terps cover.

Boise St (-20) @ UNLV: I said, earlier in the season, that I'm pulling for the Rebels this year. I like their coach, I like what they're doing to tie in with the city. I want them to cover here. I think they have a shot.

Vanderbilt @ Houston (-12): This is a game that the Cougars are going to be amped for. I think they win at home, and win big.  They want a statement game leading into the teeth of the AAC schedule. Cougars to cover.

Miami @ Duke (-11): I like Duke to win, I don't like the line at eleven at all. Miami to cover, Duke wins, but at less than ten.

Texas (-5.5) @ Iowa State: I think Texas rolls a little bit here, and covers pretty easily. This would be the #6 game on my list, that would be in my Five but I don't trust the Longhorns one bit.

Notre Dame (-11) @ Temple:  I can't get away from the feeling that Temple is going to pull an upset here. I also can't shake the feeling that they are going to get exposed by the Irish.  Tough game, lean Temple to cover but wouldn't be surprised to see some sharp lay a lot on them for the ML.

And Finally.....

Michigan (-13.5) @ Minnesota: Coming of "gift six" I think the Wolverines are going to be an angry bunch. Offsetting this is the fact that Minnesota coach Jerry Kill retired this week. I like Michigan to cover though, and their defense to re-establish a new shut-out streak.

Happy Halloween.

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