Tuesday, July 19, 2016

2016 College Football Preview: Yes, it's hard to wait.

First off, I'm not a tout.

Nor am I an "experienced football analyst with years of experience that can help you beat the books". What I am is a fan, of college (and professional) football that likes to take a look at it in pre-season and share my thoughts.

If you're paying attention, this makes me just as credible a source as any so-called "sports journalist" out there opining on the same.  I have a degree in accounting, they have a degree (probably) in journalism.  Most of us probably played competitive sports at some level in our youths, but sucked too bad to make it any further.  Me? I played football, basketball and baseball, and I dabbled in soccer. As an athlete I made a great writer. I would have been known as a "lunch-pail" player who was "gritty" (read slow) and "gave effort" (i.e. had little athletic ability).

Of all the sports I played as a youth the one that I like the most now is football.  This is surprising to me because it used to be baseball. As I've grown older however I've found that football is the sport that draws my interest and it's the one that I do the best job analyzing, and that I seem to understand the best.

Over the next few days I'm going to be rolling out my (now) annual preview of the 2016 College Football season. Last year I was stupid and tried to analyze all of the conferences, this year I'm sticking to the six that I feel are going to have the most say in the Playoffs. 

Based on that my order will be as follows:

1. SEC
2. ACC
3. PAC-12
4. BIG-12
5. American
6. B1G
7. College Football Playoff and the Big 6 Bowls.
8. Overview of minor conferences and some basic thoughts on the season at large.

These posts will start rolling out over the next few days, and will (hopefully) culminate with my first FIVE of the season for week one.

The rules of the FIVE will be the same as last year.

1. I'm going to pick five games to predict against the spread.
2. The spreads that I pick will be available at the time of the writing.
3. Odds will be pulled from the Odds Shark Application for Android.
4. Lines will be their average lines from all of their offshore books.
5. Predictions will be posted before the kick off of the first game.
6. I will typically not include the Thursday game in the FIVE
7. I might analyze certain games but only FIVE games count toward season stats.
8. The goal is 51% (or hopefully better) at the end of the season.
9. The picks are for entertainment purposes only. No offer is being made, or will be accepted nor is there an expectation of return, on these picks.
10. If you're relying on some guy you've never met on the Internet to give you football tips for gambling, (especially a guy who admits he's not playing any or all of the games he's picking) get a brochure and call a gambler's helpline immediately.

As is typical, the standard comments policy applies.

Sport's gambling is a serious business.  As with any casino game it's a game of negative expectations. In other words, you are probably going to lose money over time. 

Good luck for the season and here's hoping we all have a profitable one. 

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