College Football: The FIVE (Week 3)

After the Week 2 push (2-2 total with 1 NC) we're looking to create some momentum going into conference play (for the most part) next week. [Reminder: Week 1 was cancelled for the FIVE on account of that bastard Harvey]

While not as compelling a slate of games I do think there is some opportunity here so let's get to it.

1. Illinois @ S. Florida (-18 or 17.5) T: 55.5. The South Florida shine has worn off for me as the Bulls continue to struggle adapting to head coach Charlie Strong's system. Add to the fact that that bitch Irma strafed their campus last week and you have a distracted team that's outside of their comfort zone. To be sure, Illinois has not set the world on fire, but they did beat a fairly decent Group of Five team in WKU 20-7 last week while USF sat idle. I'm not a believer in Illini head coach Lovie Smith but I do think their defense might give the Bulls fits. Pick: Illinois to cover -18. (As with last week, the line at the time of publication is split in Vegas between -18 and 17.5, go to a book that offers the former)

2. U La La @ Texas aTm (-24 or 23.5) T: 59.5. I'm not sure why anyone thinks that this aTm team is going to be any team on their schedule by 24 points.  After the horrific loss to UCLA this is a team in crisis that has clearly lost its way and faith in the coaching staff. Rumors are that aTm is going to start Jake Hubenek at QB, I don't think this will help a program that's irrevocably broken.  Still, U La La's defense is a sieve, so despite all the warning signs people are still running toward the disaster that is the Aggies.  I say run away from the disaster. We're betters not first responders. Pick: U La La to cover -23.5. (Again, pick a book that has the best line)

3. Virginia Tach (-21 to 23.5) @ ECU. Every year, on the Internets, there are a host of touts selling you on their ability to find "bad lines".  This is bunk, of course, because they almost always get it backward.  "Bad Lines" to them are "good lines" to us. A true "bad line" is one that's fair and makes sense.  From that perspective I consider Va Tech to be a "good line".  ECU has gone from a tough Group of 5 beat to possibly the worst FBS Program in two years. Head Coach Scottie Montgomery should be on a seat hotter than Kevin Sumlin's. Last week ECU lost by 36 to West Virginia, who was beaten by Va Tech. I would bet this line at -23.5 at the Westgate, I LOVE this line at -21 at William Hill.  Pick: Virginia Tech to cover -21.

4. Tennessee @ Florida (-4.5 to -5.5) T: 49. If any team needed a "get back" game after a bad loss it was the Gators. Unfortunately, that bitch Irma did them no favors.  Tennessee fulfilled the great SEC tradition of opening the season with a yawner of a win over an FCS opponent. Florida is out of sync, they have no offense to speak of, and is going to struggle here.  Place this bet at the Westgate Superbook which is offering a full point advantage. Pick: Tennessee to cover +4.5 (Note: avoid this if the line moves to -6 for Florida)

5. UCLA (-3) @ Memphis. When I first saw this line I wanted to hop a plane, fly to Vegas and put a lot of money on it immediately. Then, I calmed down and realized it would make an oustanding "big bet" in the 5-hole for the FIVE. Memphis would be a good play here if this was last year's team that was one of the top teams in the Group of 5 and had an outside chance of making a NY6 bowl.  But this is THIS year's team that barely beat UL Monroe, which is the worst team in the SunBelt. Were I betting this would be my largest exposure of the day. Pick: UCLA to cover -3.

I've also got two games coming for the BetTheRent.com newsletter that will be dropping Friday.  You do get that don't you?  If not, why not.  It's free. (No seriously, free. I was a subscriber before I was writing for them.)