Thursday, September 14, 2017

College Football: Week 3 - Sneaky Good

I've stated before that last Saturday was an epic one in College Football history. There were many good games and a couple of below-the-radar great games (Boise St/Washington State anyone?) and, as is usual, several dogs.

On paper this week the match-ups don't seem as compelling, but (think back to week two of last year, we've been fooled before. One thing we do know, it's becoming increasingly more difficult for a bad FBS team to guarantee themselves a win by paying an FCS school hundreds of thousands (or Millions) to come into their house and meekly take a whuppin.

While some of the games we thought might be marquee games probably won't be (Hi Texas) there's still the main-event of Clemson and Louisville on the board that should be quite the spectacle.

Let's dig into the rest of the games, the ones that I didn't include in my FIVE or on the BTR newsletter.  Yet, I still have an interest. (Reminder: All lines are as accurate as I can make them at the time of writing.  They could change by Saturday of course.)

Oklahoma State (-12.5 or 13.5) @ Pitt  T: 65 - Oklahoma State has looked spectacular in their opening games, while Pitt has looked like a team that's still trying to find themselves.  IF Oklahoma State is a championship contender they cover here.  If they don't?

Iowa State (-10) @ Akron  T: 61 - After playing their guts out in El Assico, the Cyclones travel up to Fear the Roo! land try their luck against a pretty good Akron side. I would take Akron plus the points in this game and might even take a peek at the ML if  I could find it in Vegas.

Tulsa @ Toledo (-8.5 or -9.5) T: 73 - In what promises to be a high-scoring affair we're going to get a pretty good look at what these teams are. Many (Including me) think Toledo can win the MAC this year.  Take the over, both teams can score tons.

Clemson (-3) @ Louisville T: 58.5  - Clemson has one of the best defenses in the land and Louisville has Lamar Jackson. There's your match-up. I have no real lean on this game. I expect it to be a good one however.

Arizona State @ Texas Tech (-7.5) T: 76  - The last time these two teams played was an all-timer match-up for offense. It was something to forget for defense. I expect this year to be more of the same. I lean ASU here but not enough to strongly endorse them. I do LOVE over 76 however. Two coaches on the hot-seat in this game that I fully expect to not be coaching their respective teams next year.

Kentucky @ South Carolina (-6.5) T: 52. -  What to make of the Gamecocks?  Seemingly improved they are threatening to make some noise in the down (very down) SEC East.  Kentucky is having a good season because their students are not yet looking totally forward to basketball season. I think SC is real.  But I'm not sure enough on that to say they can win by almost a TD. I also have no faith in Kentucky so this game is a pass for me.

Ole Miss (-3.5 or 4) @ Cal. T: 71.5 - Normally I'd take Ole Miss here every day and twice on Saturday.  But this is a Rebels team that's reeling from off-field issues. I don't think Cal is very good, but I suspect they might be good enough here.

Texas @ USC (-15.5 or 16) T: 67.5 - Is USC the title contender I think they are?  Has Tom Herman started righting the good ship BEVO?  We'll see, but I'm still not sure exactly where either program is right now so I'm passing.  If I had to lean it would be toward USC.

LSU (-7 to 8.5) @ Mississippi State  T: 51.5 - I think the Tigers should handle the Bulldogs in easy fashion. I can't see MSU generating much, if any, meaningful offense against LSU. But LSU is one of those teams in which I have no faith to do what they need to do so this game is a pass.

Purdue @ Missouri (-7) T: 78.5 -  Lord help me I like Purdue here. To pull the upset even.

Kansas State (-4) @ Vanderbilt. T: 51 - Every inch of me wanted to pick Vandy to pull the upset at home. So much so that this game was "Game Six" the game that could have been in my five except....I'm just not that convinced the Commodores are all that good.


The Desert Rugrats are off this week.

And Finally.....

Air Force @ Michigan (-24) T: 47.5 - Michigan lines have been silly so far this year, and this one is no exception.  I think Michigan wins but I think 24 points is venturing into silly land, especially when you consider the total.  Go Blue!!






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