To be honest, last week I was more interested in getting away to Lake Charles for a weekend than I was actually picking the games. As a result, the results were below what I've come to expect from this little adventure in trying to finish above 55% for the year. (In case you're wondering, that's the amount you have to exceed to beat the Vig and turn a profit.)
I called Week 3 "sneaky" good but I'm just flat out declaring that Week 4 in college football is going to be Goooooo--ood. Especially in the Pac 12 and SEC, which feature in four of the FIVE this week. I think you're also going to see another trend in here that I'll discuss at length in the Bet the Rent newsletter.
So let's get on with it: As a reminder, all lines are correct as of the time of publication as published by the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas. THEY WILL MOVE by kick off, which is something I try to note.
1. Utah (-3.5) @ Arizona T: 58.5
I've a lot to say about the Wildcats and none of it is any good. They've basically beaten two FCS teams (UTEP is awful, look it up) and lost, at home, to a Houston team that was playing it's first game and still struggling with Harvey issues back home. The Utes pounded two bad teams (one FCS, the other might as well be this year) and won, on the road, in the Holy War. Two things I like about this game but I'm only using one in my pick. The other, the over, is due to the fact that Arizona can move the ball, they just can't stop anyone. Pick: Utah to cover -3.5 (wait a bit however, I think you might get this at less than three if you're patient. If it starts moving the other way, grab it before it gets to 5)
2. Toledo @ Miami (-13.5) T 57.5
Toledo is, probably, the class of the MAC this year and a win at Miami would put them in the early-season discussion to be the Group of Five representative in the New Year's 6 Bowl Game. While I think that's going to be a tall order against the 'Canes I DO think it's a possibility. However, I think two better possibilities are the over and the pick. Pick: Toledo to cover +13.5. (This line is plunging toward Toledo. I would jump on it in a hurry as the offshore books are already showing -12.5)
3. Mississippi State @ Georgia (-5) T: 48.5
Yet another game where I'm betting the road dog starts barking. I'm a little bit more confident in this one however. This line has moved Georgia's way and the total has gone down. Last week's 37-7 thrashing of LSU by MSU was the 2nd most impressive win I've seen all year behind OU over Ohio State. I think people are still underestimating the Bulldogs. Pick: MSU to win on the M/L. (If you don't like that, take them to cover anywhere down to +3)
4. Florida (-2.5) @ Kentucky T: 44.
The most impressive win between these two teams is Kentucky's road win over South Carolina. Florida's offense is still struggling and I think it's too early to suggest they found a quarterback because Feliepe's Hail Mary was answered. If ever there was a year the Wildcats could break through, this is it. What's life (and gaming) without some chance right? Pick: Kentucky to win on the M/L. (If you can't get that in Vegas try to see if the line moves to +3 and take them to cover at home)
5. UCLA @ Stanford (-7.5) T: 57
Pac 12 After Dark is one of the greatest things about College Football. And while I don't think this game has true "AD" potential, I DO think it's got the makings of a giant upset. True, Stanford has lost to a couple of good teams in USC and SDSU but UCLA's loss to Memphis is nothing to hang your head about. They also have that miraculous come-from-behind win over the fighting Sumlin's. I like the Bruins here a LOT. Pick: UCLA to cover +7.5 (I would also probably make a small bet on the M/L if I could find it, because I think the upset potential here is very real).
As you can see, I'm heavy on the underdogs this week. It will be the same for my Bet the Rent Picks but, if you're a subscriber, you won't see those until Friday. As a reminder I am 4-0 on picks for BtR and I'm hoping to make it 6-0 this week.
No comments:
Post a Comment