At this point of the season we've hit a little rut. Yes, last week we had a winner going 3-2, but the semi-bad, and bad beats start to discourage even the most foolish of betters. (hi) There was a point, when looking at these games, I almost said forget it and lets just take a week off. But we're here for you, and what about all of those who (smartly) fade my plays. What would THEY do?
So, for the people, and into a fairly interesting slate of games, we soldier on....
Standard disclaimer time: These are picks, made by an accountant. Buyer beware. Also, the lines are as current as I can get them at the time of publication according to information gleaned from the Westgate Superbook. THEY WILL MOVE by game time. This is just the way it is.
1. Navy @ Memphis (-3.5) T: 75.5
This FEELS like the battle for the title of "third best team in the AAC" behind UCF and USF, sorry Houston. Navy is one a role and is undefeated, their best win (in a mile surprise) looking to be Tulane early in the season. While Memphis only has a loss to UCF which does not a tragedy make. My question: Will anyone be able to play defense in this game? Pick: Over 75.5 (I feel pretty good about this for about 4 more points)
2. Texas San-Antonio (-3) @ North Texas T: 58.5
Probably the only thing you know about UNT football is that they sent a cease and desist letter to ESPN regarding the latter calling Michigan State "Mean Green" which is North Texas' official team name. They are a good team that constantly seems to hang in against better teams. Head to head UTSA lost to Southern Miss at home while North Texas beat USM at home. Those in the "know" will be leaning UNT, I still think UTSA is the better team. I also think that even good teams have bad weeks. Pick: UT-SA to cover -3 (I would wait and see if the line moves UNT's way, as I think it might before kick-off)
3. UCLA (-1) @ Arizona T: 52.5
This line opened at -1.5 Arizona, and I would have liked to publish this then but since I always run these on Wednesday, and try not to run stale lines at the time of publication, I held off. OF COURSE the line corrected to the better team. That said, I still think there's leeway in the current line toward UCLA. Pick: UCLA to cover -1 (You can probably feel pretty good up to -3)
4. Boise State @ SDSU (-7) T: 45.5
Even though they've fallen off a bit, Boise State is still at 3-2 and still undefeated in the Mountain West. But SDSU is head and shoulders the best MW team by a long way in my opinion. Plus, the game is not being played on the Smurf Turf where Boise is much better. I think the physical, run-the-ball-down-your-throat style of the Aztecs dominate. Pick: SDSU to cover -7 (I wouldn't go much higher though. If it moves to 7.5 back off)
5. South Carolina @ Tennessee (-3) T: 49
Tennessee head coach Butch Jones is probably coaching for his job in this game. After the embarrassing 41-0 loss at home versus Georgia the team appears to be in free fall. I'm expecting a disaster this week. Pick: South Carolina to win on the ML.
The same as last week, the College football week starts tonight with some Wednesday Evening #FunBelt football....
South Alabama @ Troy (-16) T: 49.5
Troy is a fave-rave of the betting folks after beating LSU at home, two weeks ago. They face a South Alabama team that's been somewhat of a disappointment so far this year. I expect the Trojans to be on cruise mode until the end of the season, when they travel to Arkansas State to play a game that should decide the winner of the Sun Belt conference. Pick: Troy to cover -16
Prediction: USA 3 Troy 42
Enjoy the games.
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