Outside of Villanova and (possibly) Virginia I'm having a hard time finding a team that I like to go deep into the tournament and win the championship. That doesn't mean there aren't good teams, only that there is not one great team in this year's crop where you look at them and say "wow, they could win this thing".
That said, let's take a preview look at some of the key players....
Villanova. Consistently, over the last few years, one of the best teams in the nation. Yes, I know that Xavier won the "regular season" Big East title and they're plenty good, but 'Nova has shown under Jay Wright that they understand how to peak at the "right time" and they have talent to spare. They're also early betting line favorites to win so if you're filling out a bracket I don't think you can go wrong there. One thing to look at with the Wildcats is back court play. The Wildcats are lead by all-world PG Jalen Brunson and have SIX players who average double digits for the season. In short, they're deep, and talented. They also have a points differential of +16.0 for the year. They did have some injury concerns with Phil Booth and Eric Paschall both struggling and because of this they have zero depth once you get past that front six. Earlier in the year they lost rising Freshman Jermaine Samuels and have yet to replace his production in the rotation. Still, their first-six is among the best in basketball. But that lack of depth might hurt in the quick-turnaround environment of tournament play. (Early Odds: 9/2)
Virginia. The Hoos nearly lapped the field in the ACC regular season and are currently a unanimous number one selection. Head coach Tony Bennett has them firing on all cylinders right now although they did receive a scare against a discombobulated Louisville team in Kentucky. For Virginia, it's all about defense. They only have three players averaging double-digits for the season and there's a legitimate question of how they are going to score enough points to beat a team that eventually will get hot and score on them. Still, Devon Hall and Ty Jerome shoot better than 40% from behind the arc and Kyle Guy makes the offense go. Because they are so long and athletic in the interior they cause opponents fits on the defensive end and even with sub-par offensive numbers are outscoring their opponents by almost 15 points per game this year. My biggest concern with the Cavaliers however is their youth, and the fact that they're not used to the crucible that is the NCAA tournament. If they can win the ACC tournament I might be more inclined to view them better, but that's not a given. (Early Odds: 6-1)
Duke. The Blue Devils will always be somewhat of a threat because they are coached by perhaps the best in the business in one Coach K. They have a star in Grayson Allen, who is also one of the biggest villains in college basketball for good reason. While Allen is their best player, he can also be their biggest liability when he loses his cool. For all of the attention given to Allen by the media however, it's Freshman Forward Marvin Bagley III that provides Duke with the bulk of their offensive talent. Bagley, at 6'11" is a force, both inside and out. He's long, athletic, and is a danger on both ends of the court. Duke might have the best six-man rotation in the league this year, but after that things get REALLY dodgy. To me their inside play, outside of Bagley is a huge concern, as is finding someone coming off the bench to provide meaningful minutes which will be needed in the round of 32 games for sure. Duke is another team who MIGHT convince me otherwise should they win the ACC Tournament, but right now I'm hard pressed to put them past the Sweet 16 depending on their draw of course. (Early Odds: 5-1)
Michigan State. It looked, for a while, like Michigan State and Purdue were going to be the two best teams in the B1G and it wasn't going to be all that close. This was before all of the scandal hit college basketball and Miles Bridges' name dominated the headlines which obviously caused somewhat of a distraction. Fast forward to the oddly-timed B1G tournament and Bridges was still on the floor, but Sparty's mind was not when they lost to Michigan in the semis. Michigan State has so much length on the inside it's ridiculous, and, like many other top teams they have five players who average double digits in points. They also play tough defense and are well coached by Larry Izzo. Continuing a theme is lack of depth. Sparty has almost none. I also think they have concentration issues at key points in games. My thought is Bridges is a "one and done" player so how much will that factor into their tournament play? I think this team is overrated and it's best basketball of the season is firmly in it's rearview mirror. (Early Odds: 8-1)
North Carolina. There seems to be some debate whether Duke or North Carolina will receive the one seed that inevitably seems to go to the 2nd ACC team every year despite evidence to the contrary. Given that Duke beat UNC 74-64 just a few days ago unless the Blue Devils falter badly in the ACC tournament I think UNC is looking solidly at a 2. Even then I think that the Blue Devils are looking at a 2 because I think Kansas gets the 1 should they win the Big XII tournament. Joel Barry II and Luke May drive this car and are possibly the best 2-man combination in college basketball this year. After that NC have 3 other players that average as close to double digits as not to matter, and a couple of guys on the bench that can provide minutes with only minimal fall-off. My biggest concern for the Tarheels is on the interior. They have some athletes inside, but they haven't been playing especially great basketball of late and I don't really think they have the manpower defensively to stop several other teams. (Early Odds: 12-1)
Kansas. Here's what you need to know about Kansas. By beating Texas Tech two weekends ago they salted away their 14th consecutive Big XII regular season championship. This year's version of the team is led by Big XII Player of the Year Devonte Graham. Graham, a Senior Point Guard is the swizzle-stick in KU's cocktail. Graham averages over 17 points per game, is a defensive stopper at PG and also has over 200 assists for the year. He's a Senior who had his best season ever right when the Jayhawks needed him. Offensively, Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk has been a huge contributor for the Jayhawks, as has 7 foot center Udoka Azubuike. Kansas is tall and long, although not especially athletic at certain positions which I think might ding them in the tournament long run. They also, insert broken record here, have depth issues. The fall-off after the top five scorers for Bill Self's team is ridiculously large. That said, I think Kansas is the prohibitive favorite to win the Big XII tournament and snag the last top seed. (Early Odds: 10-1)
In my mind the one seeds, currently, stand as follows:
#1 Overall: Virginia
Other #1 Seeds: Duke, Villanova, Kansas
2-Seeds: North Carolina, Michigan, Purdue, Xavier
3-Seeds: Michigan State, Wichita State, Auburn
4-Seeds: Cincinnati, West Virginia, Tennessee, Texas Tech
Teams no one wants to play in the first 2 rounds:
Michigan. I have a sneaking suspicion that Wolverine basketball head coach John Beilein could take your rec-league team and make them league champions after a month of coaching them. That's how improved this Wolverine team is playing right now from where they appeared at the beginning of the year. If the curious timing of the B1G tournament this year doesn't trip them up, this hot-shooting Michigan team will spell trouble for anyone who draws them in their group. If you're one of the number ones and see Michigan in your bracket, look out. (Early Odds: 9-1)
Houston. Houston should be the favorite to win the AAC tournament based on the way they've been playing of late. Head Coach Kelvin Sampson has them playing hard, shooting well and causing teams such as Cincinnati and Wichita State fits. Minus a win in the conference tourney, I think Houston gets one of those low at-large bids and pulls off an upset or three in a possible Sweet 16 run. (Early Odds: 100-1)
Creighton. Pretty simple, they just beat Villanova which is no small task. This is a team that I think might be the "Butler" of 2018 if the draw falls right. They finished tied for 3rd with Seton Hall in a very competitive Big East trailing only Xavier and Villanova. (Early Odds: 80-1)
Rhode Island. The knock against the class of the Atlantic 10 is that they've lost their last two. But they really had nothing to play for as they locked away the conference and are gearing up for the tournament. I expect Dan Hurley's Rams to be an-handful as the tournament gears up. (Early Odds: 50-1)
I'll have some thoughts on the other conference tournaments and some insights on possible upsets as the bracket gets filled.
For now, enjoy the agony and ecstasy of Championship time.
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