On Video Poker Pay Tables, Variance, and the average player.

Bob Dancer is a video poker legend. He's also a bit of an elitist when it comes to the game.

His attitude toward video poker is that players should ONLY play games that have the best pay tables.  That said, his numbers are solid, his strategy sound and he's a good resource should you want to improve at the game.

However, his blind spot is that his advice is solely directed at the high-volume, professional player. Mr. Dancer has no use for the recreational player and is incapable of understanding their motivations.

This is not intended as criticism of the man, it's just fact. (Although I'm betting, if he ever reads this, he would take it as criticism but c'est la vie)

My point here is that there is always a LOT of emphasis placed on "pay tables" and whether or not it's advantageous for a player to search out the good ones.

For example. On the Las Vegas strip you'e most likely to find 7/5 DDB. (Double Double Bonus [the most popular game] where the Full House pays 7 coins (35 for a max bet) and the flush pays 5 coins (25 for the max bet).  This game carries an expected return of  95.7120 % over the long run. Whereas 8/5 DDB, where the Full House pays 8 coins (40 for a max bet) has an expected return of 96.7861 %  over the long run and 9/6 DDB (you get the picture) has an expected return of 98.9808 %.

These returns have been determined through solid mathematics, and have been proven through many long-run simulations.  One thing that players like about video poker is that the "house edge" is a known quantity, unlike with slots, whose hold percentages are the last great mystery in the casino.

Of course, Mr. Dancer would say that players should never play DDB, that the house edge is too high for a serious video poker player to consider.  Despite this DDB is the most popular game in the terminals by far.

But, for the average player, does it really matter?

My argument is no.

Why, because these expected returns are calculated in the long-run, over the life of the game. The average video poker player is not going to get anywhere near this level of play in their lifetime. Because of this I'm of the opinion that the pay tables don't really matter a hill of beans in determining profit for most.

What DOES matter is whether or not you get higher or lower than the standard deviation on premium hands. I'm defining premium hands to be any 4 of a kind, 4 of a kind with a "kicker" (On DDB you can use the 5th card to increase the payout, typically 4 Aces with/2,3 or 4 or 4 2s,3s,4s with any A,2,3,4 etc.  There are other variations (such as face cards) but let's stick with these).

So on a 5 coin bet a hand of 4 Aces would pay 800 credits but, if the fifth card is a 2,3, or 4 the payout increases to 2,000 credits. This is called "Aces with a kicker" or AWAK in shorthand.

And your profitability is going to be determined by whether or not you get more or less of your fair share of those, statistically.

On my last trip to Las Vegas I drew 38 4 of a kinds.  Of those 3 were AWAK (including 2 within 10 minutes of one another) 10 were "premium quads" (for example, 2s, 3s, or 4s with no kicker, which pay 400 credits rather than 250, 4 Aces with no kicker which we discussed above, or 4 2s,3s,4s, w/any A,2,3,4, also discussed above) I also got one straight (non royal) flush (250 credits) the rest were 'normal' 4OAKs (250 credits).  This was over 4 days playing.

If you're thinking that's an insane amount of 4OAKs you would be correct. I've been playing video poker almost exclusively for 4 years now (I've been playing poker for around 29 years of my life) and I've never had a trip where I've gotten that many.

Yes, I made a profit, despite playing 7/5 DDB on the Strip or 8/5 and 9/5 DDB downtown. Profitability wasn't determined by me getting an extra coin on the full house, it was gained by grabbing 4OAKs on the high end of the standard deviation.

Fast forward around a month and I visited Lake Charles, Louisiana.

There I played either 8/5 DDB or 9/5 DDB almost exclusively, only got 3 4OAK in 2 1/2 days and lost big.

Fast forward one more month and in a solid day of playing 9/5 DDB bartop at River Spirit in Tulsa, Oklahoma only saw 1 4OAK and I lost a good portion of my ass.  Despite River Spirit having the better pay table.

One other point.  If you search for the best 'return' game on the unit you're playing there's a very real chance you could get caught playing a game where you're weak on strategy.  In that case the 98.8980 % game you're playing might return closer to 93% (or worse) if your strategy isn't sound.

Long story short, there's a lot of information out there telling you to search out and only play the 'good' pay tables. If you're a high-volume, long-session player this is probably a good idea. But if you're the average video poker player who sits down and plays a short session a couple of times per year I'm not convinced that the variance in expected return is going to affect you much. It's far better to play a game with a slightly lower return on which you're confident of the strategy*.




























*This is separate from the argument of whether or not you should reward casinos that offer good pay tables. I think you should, but some times it doesn't work out that way.  I try to focus most of my gambling spend off-Strip because of this, and away from MGM, CET etc.  but quite often I'm staying at those properties so I play what is available to me.