After last week's push (2-2-1) we're now at 4-5-1 for the season. Again I had issues remembering to do the CappedIn thing (I'll get it this week, I promise) so let's just get straight to the games.
1. North Texas @ Arkansas (-7) [69]
Pick: North Texas to COVER +7
There's always a little SEC bias when they play smaller schools, but Arkansas start was not the best and North Texas is actually GOOD this year. I wouldn't be entirely surprised to see the outright upset, but I'll settle for the cover.
2. UTSA @ Kansas State (-21.5) [46.5]
Pick: UTSA to COVER +21.5
This is neither last year's UTSA team (which would have had a chance at upsetting this year's Wildcat team) nor is it last year's K-State team. I'm unsure if the Wildcats can score more than 21 points in a game this year much less win by that amount.
3. Florida State (-3) @ Syracuse [68.5]
Pick: Syracuse to win on the M/L
Florida State has, so far, shown me nothing to indicate they're ready to win a game against a Syracuse team that's been scoring points in bunches on the road. The 'Noles are in a rebuilding phase which I'm thinking ol' Jimbo saw coming.
4. Boise State @ Oklahoma State (-2.5) [64.5]
Pick: Boise State to win on the M/L
After seeing what Boise did to UConn last week (#MurderSmurf) and watching OSU's fits and starts this season I think Boise comes out of this with a win. I'm just not sold on the Cowboys right now. This is a GOOD Boise State team that can play a lot of defense and is going to give the Cowboys fits. Stillwater is not the easiest place to play, and Boise State has not traditionally been as good on the road, but I still like the Broncos here.
5. Houston (-1) @ Texas Tech [69.5]
Pick: Houston to cover -1
When this line opened at -2 for Tech I couldn't believe it. My original pick was Houston to win on the ML, but between then and publication time the line has flipped. I'm still on Houston because Texas Tech plays zero defense and Houston showed last week against Arizona that they can handle a pass-happy team. Houston is going to be the bigger, stronger, faster team in Lubbock and I think they surprise some people in this game. Tech is going to have no answer for Ed Oliver and company, none whatsoever.
Other Games of Note:
Duke @ Baylor (-6) [49] - Don't be overly surprised to see another upset by a road team in this game. Baylor is still rebuilding and this is the best team David Cutcliffe has had at Duke in a while.
Arkansas State (-1.5) @ Tulsa [72] - IMO Tulsa is getting too much praise for keeping it close against what seems to not be a very good Texas team. Arkansas State is probably one of the best teams in the Sun Belt but the American is a higher conference. That said, I think they roll here.
Alabama (-21) @ Ole Miss [71] - Alabama gets it's first test in a true road game that's not neutral site against a team trying to figure it out. I think they win, and I think it's by more than 21, but I think Ole Miss will score some points.
Western Kentucky @ Louisville (-23) [57] - How bad is Western Kentucky really? I think we're going to find out here. Because if they can't cover against this Louisville team it's going to be a long, long season.
Ohio State (-13.5) @ TCU [59.5] - This is it for the Horned Frogs, the big game at home that they've wanted for a while. Be careful what you wish for however because you just might get it in the form of a supremely talented Buckeyes squad. This is the last game of Urban Meyer's suspension, will his being out alter the outcome? I'm not sure.
USC @ Texas (-3.5) [48] - This is a game that I gave serious consideration for inclusion in the five. But that would have meant 4 road dogs on the money line and I'm not feeling up to that this week. Three is enough.
Washington (-6.5) @ Utah [47]- Utah is coming of a close win over Northern Illinois while Washington has righted the ship since the close loss to Auburn. Can the Utes pull the upset? I think they're going to need a perfect game to just cover.
Fresno State (-1.5) @ UCLA [50] - Here's another case in which the line has flipped. UCLA opened as a -1 favorite, but now the movement is toward Fresno State. I hope you were able to grab this line early as I think the Bulldogs have a legitimate chance of getting the road win.
Arizona State (-5) 2 SDSU [45.5] - I like the Sun Devils here big. San Diego State is still struggling to replace all of the offensive production they lost from last year and whatever Herm Edwards is selling to ASU it's working early.
Games in which I have a rooting interest:
Prairie View vs. UNLV (no line) - If the Rebels want to find themselves bowling at the end of the year then they can't mess around with this game. They should handle Prairie View at the Big Roulette Wheel with ease. Anything else and Vegas has an issue.
SMU @ Michigan (-35.5) [53.5] - The Wolverines SHOULD have no problem with Sonny Dyke's Mustangs. If they do struggle then uh-oh. But I think last weekend was a confidence booster and we should get the best from the Wolverines here. 56-3 ish would be ideal.
Enjoy the games.
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