NFL Football: 3 and Out - Week 1

Kicking off a new feature on the blog that I'm going to call "3 and Out'.

Basically 3 games that I'm going to pick, and track, which feature lines that I feel are interesting.

Here are the rules.

 - 3 games, picked either against the spread, calling the upset on the ML or taking the total.
 - Simple Win/Loss calculation.
 - Lines will be from the Westgate Superbook and will be accurate at the time of posting. (in other words, I'm not going to update them as the games get closer.)
 - Running tally week to week.

This is similar to the FIVE in college football but more limited. I don't have time in the week to analyze the NFL like I do college football because, to be honest, I have a day job. My goal will be to write this Tuesday evening after the lines come out for posting on Wednesday. That leaves me Wednesday to finish my analysis for College football for posting of the FIVE on Thursday.  Hopefully it all works out as planned.

Anyway, here's the first 3 and Out for week 1.  Fade or follow as you wish.


1. Atlanta @ Philadelphia (-1) [45].

Pick: Atlanta to win on the ML.

Philadelphia has real issues on offense right now and I'm not sure Nick Foles can repeat his success from the playoffs and Super Bowl.  Atlanta is getting long in the tooth, but they still have talent on offense. Against this team I'm not sure if Atlanta's deficiencies on defense are going to matter all that much.


2. Buffalo @ Baltimore (-7) [40.5].

Pick: Baltimore to cover -7

Heard that Buffalo is rolling out Nate (Interception) Peterman to start the season. He'll be starting behind an offensive line that is hopeless.  Baltimore isn't a great team, but they're good enough that they should be able to handle a bad Bills team at home.


3. LA Rams (-4) @ Oakland [49.5]

Pick: LA Rams to cover -4

After the Khalil Mack trade, the Martavius Bryant cut, and the trade for AJ McCarron the Raiders are a team in turmoil. They also have the oldest roster in the NFL.  The Rams have tons of youth, talent and speed and should put everyone in the Black hole in a dark mood.  This Gruden experiment is going to end in Raider tears.



No pick, but the one NFL game in which I have a rooting interest....


San Francisco @ Minnesota (-6) [46.5]

The injury to McKinnon is problematic for the Niners, especially given the strength of the Vikings defense. Moving to the East and playing in the early kick-off window is hardly ideal either. There's a lot of enthusiasm this year in San Francisco for the team, and I think rightly so. But I'm concerned about running back, I think the failure to re-sign Carlos Hyde was a big ding to the team, assuaged by the signing of McKinnon. The trio of Breida, Alfred Morris and Raheem Mostart are going to have to figure it out pretty quickly or else Jimmy Garoppolo is going to have a long, long season.