Monday, January 7, 2019

NFL Playoffs: The Underdogs have their day(s).

Three out of the four road underdogs won last weekend in the NFL Playoffs, and even Seattle, who didn't win, covered the 2.5 point spread (losing 22-24 to Dallas).  I had stated elsewhere prior to the games that I thought an all-underdog parlay would be a good play.  It would have hit, ironically, I wish I had posted that bet here, and actually made it.

But I spent the weekend at the beach with the wife, taking a break from what has been an up and down gambling season.  OF COURSE a huge parlay that I might have made would have hit.


Colts vs. Texans: Colts Win 21-7

The score of the game makes it seem closer than it actually was. To say the Colts dominated the fraudulent Texans is an understatement. This had more the feel of a 42-3 thrashing than it did a game won by two scores.

With the Colts we learned that Andrew Luck is totally healthy, T.Y. Hilton is an elite player, and they have a good offensive line and a smart, talented defense.  This team gets the Chiefs next, so they will have their work cut out for them.

In the Texans we learned just how hollow 11-5 can be. This is a team that should have finished around 8-8 save for two games where they were gifted wins and a schedule that broke perfectly for them.  This Texans team lost to every good team they played this season. Further, there's every reason to suspect that Bill O'Brien is in out of his depth as a head coach. DeShawn Watson has regressed, the offensive line is slightly better than last year but that's faint praise, and the defense, which was supposed to be this team's rock, looked very porous and it's clear that big changes are needed.


Seahawks vs. Cowboys: Cowboys win 24-22

The image that I'll take away from this game was Allen Hurns lying on the field with his foot on back to front.  That was an awful injury and I wish him the best in his recovery. This was a win that probably secured Jason Garrett's job as a head coach as well. Jerruh seemed very happy after the win.

If Ezekiel Elliot is right then the Cowboys should always be in the game. He's a star RB in a league where having a star RB is given diminishing weight.  But the Cowboys feed off of his performance offensively and that always makes for interesting game play.  Next week the Cowboys get the Rams, which could become a battle of two very healthy, and very good running backs.

As a 49ers fan I hate saying this, but Pete Carroll should be up for coach of the year based on what he did with a totally revamped roster of mostly young players. Gone is the Legion of Boom, completely and totally, but their new defensive backfield plays smarter, is athletic, and features young, rangy players with a ton of talent. Offensively they still go through Russell Wilson, and he's in need of a better running game and more targets to hit, but they're still OK.


Chargers vs. Ravens: Chargers win 23-17

There's a lot to unpack in this game. From Tony Romo talking on-air about a pissed Philip Rivers to fans booing the Ravens anemic offense. It wouldn't surprise me all that much to see the Chargers make a run.

Melvin Gordon might not be totally healthy, but he was good enough.  For once the Chargers did not fold down the stretch and give up a late lead. Philip Rivers' greatness at the QB position is not totally appreciated by NFL fans.  They get the Patriots next, which is such an interesting matchup that I might even dedicate a blog post to it.

The Ravens on offense were offensive, but it's not entirely Lamar Jackson's fault. Their game-plan seemed off from the jump. Nor was bringing Flacco in the right answer. The Ravens need to move on from Captain Mediocrity and despite the fact that the lost the game, Jackson is their path forward. They also need to find a better O-line, that would help.


Eagles vs. Bears: Eagles win 16-15

The defining moment in this game was the partially blocked, double-doink FG attempt as time was running down that clinched the win for the Eagles. The reasons for the loss go much deeper than that FG try.

The Eagles keep rolling, proving once again that Nick Foles is the QB of record for the Eagles, not Carson Wentz. And watching Darren Sproles play ball is a good thing no matter who you are rooting for.  Next up are the Saints, and I'd be more than a little worried were I Drew Brees and Co. because the defending champs don't yet seem ready to relinquish their crown.

Bears fans are mad at Cody Parkey, some irrationally so, but its hard to analyze and easy (especially for Barstool employees) to rant and rage uncontrollably.  Why did the game-plan call for so much passing from a game-managing QB?  Where was the Bears' run game all night?  What happened to the Bears D in big moments? That said, the talent on this Bears roster is stupid good. I thought all year that they were a year ahead of schedule, next year could be "the one" for them, which is why their loss feels different than the others.

Next weekend is that dumb weekend that everyone (wrongly) calls "the best weekend in football". It's not, but you're going to get four games that might be competitive at least.

We'll take a deeper dive into them all later in the week. Probably won't have the same set-up for an all-underdog parlay unfortunately, but I'm sure there will value somewhere.

No comments:

Sports Section